{"id":9142,"date":"2020-08-20T23:41:43","date_gmt":"2020-08-21T06:41:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=9142"},"modified":"2020-08-20T23:41:43","modified_gmt":"2020-08-21T06:41:43","slug":"rwri-michael-levitt-pinker-kucharski-jacobinism-diab-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2020\/08\/rwri-michael-levitt-pinker-kucharski-jacobinism-diab-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"#RWRI, Michael Levitt, Pinker, Kucharski, JACOBINISM, Diab | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/k5PyWLFj1UM?rel=0\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=k5PyWLFj1UM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">COVID-19 brought socialism to America &#8211; Nassim Taleb | SophieCo. Visionaries<\/a><br \/>\nThe COVID-19 pandemic came as an external shock, almost unprecedented. How can we navigate the uncertainty of the post-pandemic future? We talked to the author of bestselling books \u2018The Black Swan\u2019, \u2018Antifragile\u2019, and \u2018Skin in the Game\u2019, risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb.<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 4\/ PS- The argument that someone has a Nobel (particularly in an unrelated field) is EXACTLY the bad side of ad hominem. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1296109815815704577\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-19 15:40:35<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 3\/ True humility (&#8220;humbleness&#8221;), Mr Levitt, @MLevitt_NP2013, is not in bowing to the &#8220;Nobel privilege&#8221;; it lies in understanding that we live in a world lacking certainties &amp; acting accordingly, not risking lives via charlatanic claims. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1296040805229002754\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-19 11:06:21<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2\/ @MLevitt_NP2013 is offended that thanks to his Nobel privilege in&#8230; chemistry we shd bow to him for his ignorance in Extreme Value Th &amp; probabilistic risk analysis. This is what we called the #CarpenterFallacy PS: Levitt forecast Israel &lt;=10 deaths <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1296024605723889664\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-19 10:01:59<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb It is in there. The Koura is the southernmost part. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1296020641645236224\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-19 09:46:14<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Explains the culture of the Koura valley south of Antioch. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295916055550885895\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-19 02:50:39<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Your seats reserved for the next RWRI. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295889471767040000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-19 01:05:01<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Back in stock. And link for the free PDF. If you want to save money, feel free to download &amp; print. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295889137170386945\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-19 01:03:41<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Blood pressure also rises <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295842089767448577\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-18 21:56:44<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb We used to have physical fights before Zoom <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295830765088002048\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-18 21:11:44<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb No, one needs to let others speak. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295775301377695745\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-18 17:31:20<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Unreadable&#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295764794746843137\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-18 16:49:35<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Steve Wolfram. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295688866981187587\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-18 11:47:53<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Bad quality! @zachobront <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295679537804726272\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-18 11:10:49<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb End of book <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295371378728873984\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-17 14:46:18<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Jaffer is Palestinian. If he openly says that he will vote for Trump, you can expect many people classified on the left to do so, but covertly. Pardoning Snowden will draw many voters wary of the &#8220;deep state&#8221;. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295180784563871746\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-17 02:08:56<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2\/ Can someone give an intuitive proof of the law of iterated expectations? Words only, no math. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295167775619665921\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-17 01:17:15<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This reminds me of the statement &#8220;the probability is now 100%. But it could change.&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295138044379570180\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 23:19:06<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb How can you get in? US citizens are banned. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295137715793649664\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 23:17:48<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Wrong heuristic\/definition of wrgodicity <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295097281918705667\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 20:37:08<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Actually a lot of farmers from Asia Minor. Google it. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295092601842958343\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 20:18:32<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb If this works, outperforms any quarantine! More so if false negatives correlate to contagiousness. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295086909019033601\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 19:55:55<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb No&#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295060765771276293\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 18:12:02<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Scribes in Egypt <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1295000372499578882\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 14:12:03<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb To understand scaling in politics\/economics\/culture: Mediterraneans (olive oil pple) have traditionally done best in groups &amp; organizations of size n. Creating large orgs\/states= Procrustean bed. Discuss. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294992289450909698\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 13:39:56<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Explain why it is the same word in Greek. Explain why it is relevant to my aphorism. Or shut the fuck up. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294989851817914369\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 13:30:15<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb We need a federal system. Last ditch solution. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294981501264760833\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 12:57:04<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Nor did Pinker answer why he states Richardson&#8217;s analysis backward. Never corrected. Nor does he explain how an undefined (or infinite) mean can drop. #BSVendor <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294978320317190146\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 12:44:25<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The reason I said &#8220;dishonest&#8221; is because of other subsequent statistical analyses (like Clauset below) confirming our point: Pinker DID NOT answer them. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294977586406334472\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 12:41:30<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb A bunch of nitpickers making a historical distinction between &#8220;democracy&#8221; and &#8220;republic&#8221; irrelevant to the aphorism &#8211;like all nitpickers, fundamentally ignorant. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294971214256058368\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 12:16:11<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My explanation. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294969801237028864\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 12:10:34<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Interarrival time for large wars is 50-150 years, with mean deviation very high. Means he is talking noise. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294819881049886723\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 02:14:50<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb {1,1,1,0,0,0} and {1,0,1,0,1,0} have a \u2153 correlation. At the limit of n large, the CDF of a Bivariate normal in the positive quadrant for both variables. We can ignore the variance at root{n} because of symmetry. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294814627801583620\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 01:53:58<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb More evidence that 1) @sapinker is ignorant of statistics, 2) is dishonest about it. [Such reasoning (not the unethical part) is called the &#8220;Pinker Problem&#8221; in Stat Consequences of Fat Tails] <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294813813041246208\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 01:50:44<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My solution above is exact: 1\/4 +\\frac{ArcSin(\u2153)} {2\\pi} <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294811142758567936\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 01:40:07<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My solution is LOCALISM. Regional autonomy. No central state can work in Lebanon. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294810595632570369\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 01:37:57<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294810105377161218\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-16 01:36:00<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb New formatting for Principia Politica (similar to Stat Cons FT). Now I wonder if it should not be in the Technical Incerto rather than the Incerto. It is not written in an essay language, but a more formal document. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294744751808417793\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 21:16:18<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Excess death are ALREADY &gt;200K over similar pasr periods (reported death rate &lt;= true death rate, to do stats properly). And that&#8217;s not the fucking point: he would be wrong even if he got the number right. You don&#8217;t make claims of n=1 in high variance. Can&#8217;t you get the point? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294711048621166594\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 19:02:23<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Democracy: representation by a very narrow selection of people whose principal attributes &amp; skills are that they are very, very good at being elected. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294704591972577281\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 18:36:43<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb You are mistaking the necessary for the sufficient <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294702304533323776\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 18:27:38<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 1- I never take any advice from someone I didn&#8217;t ask for advice. [Rephrased] <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294702126413774849\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 18:26:55<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb There are other tests of moments, or use of EVT that can confirm. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294696200466202624\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 18:03:23<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Marshmallowbrain, death rates are already higher than 170k <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294695306756595713\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 17:59:50<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Why does anyone take Michael Levitt seriously? It&#8217;s not that his predictions are wrong (they are), but worse: it is unrigorous to engage in single point predictions (n=1) in a high variance &amp;\/or Fat Tailed environment. https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2007.16096.pdf https:\/\/twitter.com\/MLevitt_NP2013\/status\/1287036738565738496 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294679485388853249\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 16:56:57<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb No idea. Unblocked. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294669944471330816\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 16:19:03<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Per le distribuzioni normale e lognormale l&#8217;incertezza aumenta con l&#8217; &#8220;orizzonte&#8221; temporale. Per le code grasse, l&#8217;incertezza \u00e8 sempre massima! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294664330252824576\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 15:56:44<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Fucking idiot, I am not removing people who disagree, rather trolls and people who engage in sophistry. Like you. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294660015694008322\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 15:39:36<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Journos fail to get that Shiites can BOTH worship Nasrallah &amp; want him OUT of daily government. How? The French &amp; Brits both worshiped &amp; voted out De Gaulle &amp; Churchill resp. after the war. The French called De Gaulle back for the Algerian war. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294657255468666880\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 15:28:37<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The problem with #RWRI is that 20% of attendees are return students, #growing every time, so we may converge to a 100% repeat. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294602422418014215\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 11:50:44<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Jean, not true. N W Levant (Galilee to Antioch+ Damascus) has ~no Peninsular genetics (all Med-Anatolian) Bt Syria has tons in SE Saudi Arabia has 13% Levantine-Anatolian genetics which may have confused some, But no need for a Levantine nation-state: as w\/Scandinavia. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294601377965121538\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 11:46:35<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb &#8220;Considered&#8221; is not a metric (revelation of preferences). How many did? More than other months? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294448805123952640\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 01:40:19<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I just showed that our grandmothers know more probability theory and risk management than @R_Thaler and @CassSunstein. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294443590878461952\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 01:19:36<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Essaye par SCRIBE pour $50. Aussi on doit deplacer lundi. 2e session marche? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294442981043384322\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 01:17:10<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb He added &#8220;Gabish&#8221; to the intellectual tradition https:\/\/twitter.com\/TamerTSalameh\/status\/1294313451012030464 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294439587134177287\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-15 01:03:41<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Sorry! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294391827257335808\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-14 21:53:54<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb You are welcome to barge in any time. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294388616966406150\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-14 21:41:09<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb RWRI <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294288316830027779\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-14 15:02:36<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb GDP is off <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294233141549441029\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-14 11:23:21<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This is mostly because Kucharski is a &#8220;peer-review&#8221; poseur does not understand fat tails &amp; their consequences. Epidemiologists are stuck in a citation ring. See our discussion with Ioannidis. https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2007.16096.pdf https:\/\/twitter.com\/AdamJKucharski\/status\/1294197066856620032 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294231753973026817\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-14 11:17:50<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb New grind <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294230227380559877\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-14 11:11:46<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Excellent service you are getting, namesake. The big boss is taking care of this. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1294010778576728064\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-13 20:39:45<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Sir Karl usually wears open neck sweaters. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293974179671420930\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-13 18:14:19<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293963934773456899\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-13 17:33:37<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Covid models Optional #RWRI session with Diego Zviovich <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293963511324909569\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-13 17:31:56<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb @dzviovich <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293924619733303304\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-13 14:57:23<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Not kidding. The publisher-facilitator makes a yuuuuge difference when you go for maximum quality, no compromise. Physical books are objects, not disposable items. @zachobront <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293883476438065153\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-13 12:13:54<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I told you so <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293882993489125377\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-13 12:11:59<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb It is all in the olive smell and the paper quality. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293882176069439491\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-13 12:08:44<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Friends, the book is back in stock on AMZN and below. We still guarantee the $49.95 for worldwide shipping. But I have a question: why the f*** are so many people interested in a technical book? Because of the colors? the olive smell? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293879721965629440\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-13 11:58:59<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb JACOBINISM Friends, in French Jacobinisms maps exactly to my nightmare: a centralized nation-state w\/IYIs running it, coupled with a monolithic national identity (anti-localism, anti-minorities, anti-multiculturalism). What would be the corresponding English term? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293863184315682818\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-13 10:53:16<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Fucking imbecile I spent \u2153 of my time in Lebanon <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293860972160069632\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-13 10:44:29<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Same as in Western Aramaic? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293695917170855940\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-12 23:48:37<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb In other words, better say &#8220;I don&#8217;t know&#8221; then &#8220;I now know&#8221; than say &#8220;I know&#8221;, then &#8220;I didn&#8217;t know&#8221;. #RWRI <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293558517010501633\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-12 14:42:38<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb RWRI 14 Online #RWRI 15 instructors, 12 in the room. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293555162443849729\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-12 14:29:18<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb \u201cYou exist in full if and only if your conversation (or writings) can not be easily reconstructed with clips from other conversations. \u201c Bed of Procrustes <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293518394608832512\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-12 12:03:12<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Ounce of precaution vs pound of cure Our precautionary approach to COVID has been to become progressively less worried as we got additional information. The WHO, newsidiots, &amp; bureaucrats did exact opposite: acted more worried as they received more information. #RWRI #RWRI14 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293517795595096069\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-12 12:00:49<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Med doors https:\/\/twitter.com\/Return2Med\/status\/1293230572391804928 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293339964797849600\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-12 00:14:11<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb No comparison. Not close. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293301479047135233\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-11 21:41:15<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Fucking idiot get your comparisons right. My readers do not barge into my living room or troll my other readers. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293288673207779332\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-11 20:50:22<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb He does not know what totalitarian means. A feed is a private property. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293281536125673472\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-11 20:22:00<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb There is nothing wrong with the &#8220;joke&#8221;. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293281323726123011\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-11 20:21:10<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Done <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293266697051344904\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-11 19:23:02<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Diab is not evil, just v. naive. The myth is that ministers control ministries. Insiders (decades) can resist their control. The only cure is: Augean stable\/smashing bureaucracies, &amp; decentralization. Governments come &amp; go, bureaucrats stay. #localism <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293159133626146816\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-11 12:15:37<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb It did not hit this moron @DavidDaoud that the fellow is not speaking Arabic but Levantine. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1293131271313465344\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-11 10:24:54<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Almost: All models are wrong, many are useful, some are deadly. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292985041816092674\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-11 00:43:51<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb There are scholarships. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292983680378560512\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-11 00:38:26<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This time the ratio is much much higher. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292983490947031040\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-11 00:37:41<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Slavic from where? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292865271905083400\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-10 16:47:55<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Thanks! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292771295617327105\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-10 10:34:30<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Used to be Ba7r l Rum <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292754558805069825\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-10 09:27:59<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I can unblock <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292588467780816896\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 22:28:00<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Same. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292575845396156419\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 21:37:51<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb DIFFERENT VARIETIES OF PEACE Peace between Israelis &amp; Palestinians cannot happen from the top (a la Oslo). Peace between Israel &amp; Hezbollah\/Iran can easily happen from the top because the tension is from the top. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292559020415426560\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 20:30:59<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Some bitter imbecile I&#8217;ve blocked. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292558054429544448\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 20:27:09<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Levantines in Mexico are fish in water. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292547698332184585\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 19:46:00<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Nothing to do with Phoenicianism. Levant is part of Anatolia, a cluster Turkey-Armenia-Cyprus-Greece, our brothers in food, dance, genetic, etc. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292546038113472513\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 19:39:24<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Spain is Med as hell <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292533537032282114\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 18:49:43<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Make Lebanon Mediterranean Again #MakeLebanonMediterraneanAgain And for our other Med brothers in the Levant #MakeTheLevantMediterraneanAgain <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292523319049191424\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 18:09:07<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb No, no, no, please! Real reviews are of the type you just did: spontaneously and linked to YOUR understanding. Please continue the way you started. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292520578029625344\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 17:58:14<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Triple imbecile you are not getting the point and it has NOTHING to do with books on probability. Imbecile. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292504606388387840\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 16:54:46<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My first book review by a real user. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292504098282012672\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 16:52:45<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Moving on is not geographic, idiot. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292469285055594497\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 14:34:25<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb No, fuck that. Probability. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292465088281161730\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 14:17:44<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Family, imbecile. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292464836157353984\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 14:16:44<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb You don&#8217;t get the notion of neutrality? The judge should be one of the parties? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292464527297187844\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 14:15:30<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb You seem clueless. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292460021553541122\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 13:57:36<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292458840416493568\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 13:52:54<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Yes government is using it to prevent riots but still can&#8217;t compare numbers. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292458671667122176\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 13:52:14<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb No double blind study. We need volunteers. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292457734823186432\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 13:48:31<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb UN Security Council: We require an independent investigation &#8211; Sign the Petition! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292457373869711367\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 13:47:05<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Good ideas about rent seeking. But he is no scholar. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292455794672316416\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 13:40:48<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Family name? Can look up <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292450367721152515\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 13:19:14<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Blood disease markers match NW Greece. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292449660557242374\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 13:16:26<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb A lot of flaws in his papers, owing to bad probability (uses Gaussian metrics outside domain). All papers are flawed. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292444181944836096\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 12:54:40<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb A lot of flaws in his papers, owing to bad probability. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292443994568433665\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 12:53:55<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Many Maronites are Armenians, All Sunnis are of Rum origin. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292443582515863554\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 12:52:17<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb We had Russia before 1917. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292438654628044803\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 12:32:42<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb We the Rum do not consider ourselves &#8220;Greek&#8221; (a nation-state modern invention in the 1800s) but Romaics (Byzantine), closer to &#8220;Hellenistic&#8221;. That is, East Romans, un point c&#8217;est tout. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292438409445867521\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 12:31:43<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Most Rum in the Koura are actually Macedonian in origin; Those in N Syria are Anatolian-Aegean Greeks. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292437956012236801\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 12:29:55<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Please read the paper before rehashing platitudes. It is not our point. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292434825417236482\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 12:17:29<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Science is not about naive &#8220;evidence&#8221;; science is about properties, some of which can be revealed by evidence. Our paper in the debate with Ioannidis. https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2007.16096.pdf <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292432306813239297\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 12:07:28<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Imbecile. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292423072956518400\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 11:30:47<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb No, and not &gt;= but strict equality. = 1 is an exponential (memoriless) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292416069345443840\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 11:02:57<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb INTELLECTUAL VERBALISMS Ms. Saad assumes that if people are fed up w\/corruption, it *necessarily* comes from geopolitics, a US-concocted plot and neo-colonialism. No, Iranian influence is a native thing, not interventionism at all. Note: BTW, Iran is bankrupt. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292413250915598338\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 10:51:45<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb There is no &#8220;evidence&#8221; a spear through the skull represents significant danger, since I never saw a &#8220;peer-reviewed&#8221; paper to that effect. #EvidenceBasedBS #WearAMaskForTheSakeofOthers <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292412009477214208\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 10:46:49<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292410477318938629\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 10:40:44<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I block for bullshitting. You want to be blocked? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292410075726962688\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 10:39:08<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My father found that (Ruffi\u00e8 and Taleb, 1964) from rare blood diseases. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292409181371355136\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 10:35:35<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb \\frac{1}{a} E(X | X&gt;=a) &gt;1 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292408946418909184\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 10:34:39<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Comes partly from S. Italians and Etruscans being Anatolian, same as Canaanites. They came from the same place. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292407457747148800\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 10:28:44<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Can&#8217;t compare because the latter number is a function of precaution. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292398319986147335\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 09:52:25<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Kurtosis ~3 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292273466792718336\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 01:36:18<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Voila <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292266607612485632\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 01:09:03<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Grandfather MP voted for Bachir. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292256835160997890\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 00:30:13<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Fuck off <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292254465895038986\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 00:20:48<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb You know it&#8217;s a fraud: not by looking at the merchant, but just by looking at the customers. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292253827123609600\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-09 00:18:15<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Localism <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292239850255654913\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 23:22:43<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Where did I say that ? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292224776774332416\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 22:22:49<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Bullshitting != making mistakes <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292218024934756360\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 21:56:00<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I spent \u2153 of the time there. Go lecture someone else. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292214846247895042\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 21:43:22<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I never block people who make mistakes, @kareem_carr. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292208561444052992\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 21:18:23<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Not quite <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292205222539014146\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 21:05:07<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Give me a week for the new organization. Might be the Lebanese Red Cross. Thanks. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292196602992627713\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 20:30:52<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Dist of #of runs, not max (yet) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292196335857405956\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 20:29:48<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb OK, Let me up the stakes, @octonion What is the distribution of the number of runs? (a run is an uninterrupted succession of H or T). This will allow us to get the exact expected maximum run. Ours was still a numerical hudge. (math to clear up my mind owing to #Lebanon ) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292184262431645697\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 19:41:50<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Mediterraneans. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292180679074209793\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 19:27:36<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Of course, send it back to where you bought it. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292180511599865858\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 19:26:56<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb WTF? Lebanese \u2260 &#8220;Arab&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292177077995745280\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 19:13:17<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Imbecile. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292171123031973888\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 18:49:37<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Bravo! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292170495115304960\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 18:47:08<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Thank you Twitter. The tweet&#x1f447;generated &gt;$30K (excluding my contribution). Will repeat in a few days with another organization (#diversification). <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292160747691282432\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 18:08:24<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Necessary and Sufficient. #Lebanon <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292159025396756482\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 18:01:33<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Immediate elections. But better to be slow in cleaning shops [corruption] because of the French Revolution. The more you delay the worse the cleanup gets. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292152499349204999\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 17:35:37<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Mabruk! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292150249033732101\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 17:26:41<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Nothing in history that moved fast EVER worked. Transitions work. #Burke <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292145692526477312\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 17:08:34<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Cheers, [signed] XXX <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292144489256103936\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 17:03:47<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Idiots. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292139400361660418\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 16:43:34<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This info by @halimshebaya is NOT false info. Many officials from corrupt regimes buy properties via LLC in the US. #MarwanPonzi Kheireddine is a beneficial owner of the LLC. People who bankrupt their banks can&#8217;t be smart. #MarwanPonzi was unable to hide his identity. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292135071852503042\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 16:26:22<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb x^2+1\/x^2+2=5 (x+1\/x)=sqrt(5) x=(\\sqrt(5) \\pm 1)\u00bd <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292100951248195585\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 14:10:47<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb There is a story about *some* &#8220;top&#8221; epidemiologists not understanding masks (nor epidemiology, nor convexity, nor life, nor much else). Wear a mask for the sake of others. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292083662205394948\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 13:02:05<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Salemtak! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292066984629280768\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 11:55:49<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This @mar1_k must first explain. Then eventually pay for this. Unlike with Madoff, all Lebanese Ponzi participants are still at large. &#8220;If you see fraud and don&#8217;t shout fraud you are a fraud.&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292061425192579072\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 11:33:43<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Best to cancel and reorder on link above. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292057561353658369\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 11:18:22<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb No, Self-remade. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1292052248416210945\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 10:57:15<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Fuck, no. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291893457246654464\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 00:26:17<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Localism, I keep saying. You don&#8217;t replace a government that harms you with more government. Self-organization and bottom up government. Take things into your own hands. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291892829678116864\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 00:23:47<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Excellent detection of the contradiction. I use revenge in my personal life, when it is a deterrent, but not in my collective-political one when things are settled. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291892371907661830\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-08 00:21:58<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb John Gray&#8217;s recommendation <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291852274273329154\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 21:42:38<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I block idiots. The only colonialism in Lebanon is 500 y of Ottoman, in which minorities learned to thrive (#Antifragile) (Fr spent 20 y as a LON mandate). &#8220;Past injustices fuel present injustices and focusing on those isn&#8217;t a weakness.&#8221; Some idiot looking for problem. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291819880778522624\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 19:33:55<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Byzantine. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291818205766443011\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 19:27:15<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Can someone dig Bo Winegard&#8217;s income? I bet you it is less than a blue collar person. cc:@Monsantobuster <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291809204605517827\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 18:51:29<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb W int\u00e9 wein 3\u00e9yesh? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291803630501273600\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 18:29:20<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Into min 7aret l faw2a? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291798734116978688\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 18:09:53<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 3ind\u00e9 7ada ma3 Fresh $$$bi Bairut W kam\u00e9n bb3at Bitcoin la 3alam. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291785776074821635\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 17:18:23<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Too much sun <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291784321074958338\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 17:12:36<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Confirmed. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291783920875442176\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 17:11:01<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Finally found source; added it to references. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291774623500111874\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 16:34:04<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I have been giving direct to people hurt in #Lebanon, no intermediary. But for those w\/o the network, I verified this group (I know some of the people involved very well; they are volunteers) and (#SKinInTheGame) will give also them $$to match some of your donations. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291772262530637824\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 16:24:42<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I am not interested in people liking me. I am interested in people READING me. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291737304458039298\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 14:05:47<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2) Most of these colonial studies are built around retrospective acrimony as an industry by itself, by rent-seeking academics. Move on. Life is not zero sum. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291736700033654786\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 14:03:23<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The more you get stuck in the past at past historical slights, the worse your progress. Move on; getting rich is the best revenge. In 1982 Assad (p\u00e8re) &amp; warlord Frangi\u00e9 blew up our house in Amioun. I got rich &amp; we built a bigger one. My way of saying F***k you. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291735907360477184\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 14:00:14<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Prayers.&#x1f64f; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291733652674682882\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 13:51:16<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Can&#8217;t you read a tweet? Reread above. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291730992919719938\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 13:40:42<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Yes, non top-down <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291730054850981889\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 13:36:58<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Amazon recommending me to buy my own book. The book should be back in stock on AMZN next week. Meanwhile there is stock here: for $33.95 + shipping Foreign copies (Europe\/Asia) should be under $49.95. https:\/\/thescribestore.com\/products\/statistical-consequences-of-fat-tails-by-nassim-taleb\u2026 Remember the PDF is Free https:\/\/researchers.one\/article\/2020-01-21 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291729645939949569\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 13:35:21<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Sub-imbecile, DNA of Lebanese (Muslims and Christians) is close to Imperial Romans. Sub-imbecile. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291728177308590080\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 13:29:31<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Let&#8217;s be open to both interpretations. The Orthodox were sympathetic to the Ottomans, but we were not allowed to have bells in our churches. Catherine changed that. I think that the problems started as vicious circles of nationalism after the Greek independence wars. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291722998429429761\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 13:08:56<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Idiots who recite post-colonial studies don&#8217;t get it that the Ottomans spent 500 years in Lebanon, the French military came as a League of Nations Mandate for ~22 years. French &#8220;influence&#8221;, if anything, decreased (Arabism + American University). <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291709910305124355\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 12:16:56<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Block conspiracy theorists. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291708371943522306\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 12:10:49<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Salemtkon. Weyn kinto lamma saret? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291705838613274625\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 12:00:45<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Imbecile. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291705395183071232\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 11:58:59<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Theories by nuance-blind idiots. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291702594449158144\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 11:47:51<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb You don&#8217;t get it. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291702296636686337\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 11:46:40<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Localism <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291700727849594881\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 11:40:26<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Hi, we discontinued as the quality is of Book Depository is sub par. It is Print on Demand You can return it if you wish and order from the US the real one. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291700240412794884\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-07 11:38:30<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I block idiots <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291520514310246400\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 23:44:20<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Apple cash is free! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291480924572581888\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 21:07:01<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Can you help get a direct wire for larger $$? No fees, unlike Paypal, etc. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291472217759518725\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 20:32:25<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Now, the real problemo. What is the distribution of the mean run? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291465568105697281\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 20:06:00<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Bingo. The problem is the grievance industry. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291465124516179969\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 20:04:14<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Do they go into fresh $$accounts? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291461458933567491\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 19:49:40<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Blocked <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291418026236051458\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 16:57:05<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2) Of the 3 million Gauls in what is now France, 1 million were killed, 1 million enslaved. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291417984846594048\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 16:56:55<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb STATUTES OF LIMITATION The French-Algerian war was 60 years ago. Unless you consider it settled, you are opening up to endless boomerangs of grief. For the Gauls were invaded &amp; exterminated by Julius Cesar 2000 y ago. Should they ask Rome for reparation? Move on. Look ahead. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291416280130519040\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 16:50:09<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb No, just block. I did. Ostrakon. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291413735169568768\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 16:40:02<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Why don&#8217;t you fuckoff? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291412862599135232\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 16:36:34<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I blocked him. Despicable man. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291404012319911938\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 16:01:24<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb CONSPIRACY THEORIES\/FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS I explained in FBR how journos tend to always assign causes to random market moves. I stopped reading newspapers early on in my career. It is the exact same mechanism that makes us see conspiracies in place of accidents. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291386456372580352\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 14:51:38<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb OK, blocked. All conspiracy theories are blocked. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291383945398026243\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 14:41:39<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Salemetkon <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291379896770613248\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 14:25:34<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Macron, we owe you. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291373431599005696\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 13:59:53<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Fucking idiot show me the genetic evidence. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291371277781958656\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 13:51:19<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Yves Smith is doing the job no journalist does anymore. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291367293172232192\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 13:35:29<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My bedroom in Beirut (in the family place). <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291365725563752448\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 13:29:16<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Made in London from descriptions <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291346841272033280\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 12:14:13<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb You seem to be on the wrong footing. You can&#8217;t seek peace by fighting a faction. They are the ones you need to deal with. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291345571068940288\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 12:09:10<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I guess the debate about the &#8220;value&#8221; of tail risk hedging has ended. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291343330723475456\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 12:00:16<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Good <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291336635574034435\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 11:33:40<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Good. But will take a while to thaw the ice. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291335270290399233\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 11:28:14<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My question is: who died and how? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291166870498938880\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-06 00:19:05<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb ? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291160280760815620\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 23:52:54<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My endorsement for his next book: &#8220;Gad Saad has more intellectual courage than many entire departments.&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291159436749352960\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 23:49:32<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb His Gadness has so much intellectual courage that I would never betray him. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291158246326243329\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 23:44:49<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Imbecile, it has to do with food &amp; sophistication <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291147518349389826\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 23:02:11<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Skin in the game. He is going to Lebanon tomorrow, after sending troops. No empty talk. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291143338788294657\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 22:45:34<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291140571906662407\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 22:34:35<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This approach is critical and explains the parsimonious character of Extreme Value Theory: to figure out if a sequence is random, instead of counting heads and tails, start by looking at the maxima. See how much it diverges from 8. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291132438480072704\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 22:02:16<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The formula would be to integrate ^250\/mean assuming the distribution of the mean. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291105111658422272\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 20:13:40<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb No, a fudge. The 125 is a fudge. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291104165737967617\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 20:09:55<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Waiting for more such studies. Morbidity seems to affect mild cases, as presumed in our debate with Ioannidis (Taleb Bar Yam, Cirillo, 2020, IJF). You need to account for morbidity, not just fatality, rates. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291102170419539968\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 20:01:59<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Is there a BTC =&gt; Fresh dollars market? Thanks <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291059614520356865\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 17:12:53<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Fresh $$account <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291041953006706689\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 16:02:42<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2\/Some people on the thread are recommending NGOs. I tend to go direct, avoid professionals. Someone I know. And if you pick an organization, take one with volunteers, no professional staff. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291026470379323393\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 15:01:11<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Nobody needs your prayers. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291024762429419522\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 14:54:24<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb LEBANESE DIASPORA Stop the BS &amp; the statements. Find pple in your circle who lost their home &amp; offer $$to rebuild. Talk is cheap. Don&#8217;t call with words, call with $$. Now. PS- I block everyone engaging in conspiracy theories under such a tragedy. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1291024119623028738\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"> Permalink<\/a> 2020-08-05 14:51:50<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>COVID-19 brought socialism to America &#8211; Nassim Taleb | SophieCo. Visionaries The COVID-19 pandemic came as an external shock, almost unprecedented. How can we navigate the uncertainty of the post-pandemic future? We talked to the author of bestselling books \u2018The Black Swan\u2019, \u2018Antifragile\u2019, and \u2018Skin in the Game\u2019, risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb. @nntaleb 4\/ [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1724,1826,1825,1824,1823,1014],"class_list":["post-9142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-rwri","tag-diab","tag-jacobinism","tag-kucharski","tag-michael-levitt","tag-pinker"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9142"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9142\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9143,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9142\/revisions\/9143"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}