{"id":9133,"date":"2020-07-15T00:36:36","date_gmt":"2020-07-15T07:36:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=9133"},"modified":"2020-07-15T00:36:36","modified_gmt":"2020-07-15T07:36:36","slug":"catching-up-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2020\/07\/catching-up-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"Catching Up | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

Apologies, just going to put this here. Catching up a month and a half of NNT’s tweets.\u00a0 I’ve heard from a few people who are locked out of Twitter at work that this has been useful. Back in the day when I started saving NNT’s tweets he was known to delete them at random and start again. Since he’s stopped doing that, this is sort of redundent but it forces me to pop in and see what he’s up to, and to collect relevant videos and publications.\u00a0 I started this blog shortly after reading Fooled By Randomness. NNT was hardly known at the time and I felt his ideas were interesting and useful and that they could make a difference in the world. Well this many years later and the blog is more or less a habit as NNT has certainly made a name for himself. And his ideas are known and valued far and wide.<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Might be outside EVT. Will look. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-14 22:48:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am doing an interview. Not yet decided with whom. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-14 22:48:10+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You were a subject under the fake name citizen; the reverse is better. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-14 21:19:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/ Am I the only one who sees similarities betw the cancel culture & France’s reign of terror, the use of empty slogans to indirectly promote the exact opposite of what is claimed (i.e., “diversity” ideas to promote “Northern-Euro (bleached) supremacy”), etc. ? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-14 19:49:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Block idiots. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-14 19:44:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I even reduced the burden when I discovered the effect of masks. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-14 19:09:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Today July 14, some think they are celebrating “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity” Not quite In fact they are celebrating verbalism & fake slogans: the move from UK-style constitutional monarchy to mob rule, reign of terror, arbitrary executions,…, then 70y of ABSOLUTE autocracy. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-14 19:08:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Look up Ito’s lemma \/ stochastic process Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-14 15:26:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, no Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-14 15:07:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Nobody has been working on formalizing Lindy. This is the next paper. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-14 15:01:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thanks! What should I get? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-14 00:50:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Will this work? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-14 00:46:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He probably meant \u0623\u062e\u0637\u0628\u0648\u0637 from \u03c7\u03c4\u03b1\u03c0\u03cc\u03b4\u03b9 Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 22:18:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A thread around my paper on p-values and p-value hacking, now a chapter in Stat Cons Fat Tails. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 22:16:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Meanwhile Razib you are not paying attention to our correction to standard PCAs. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 20:17:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb @PZalloua We know the migration. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 20:10:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I do not understand what you are looking for. Probability for an average to exceed the median is circular (under normal approximation mean converges to median). Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 14:11:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I agree here but by 2nd order effects I mean under nonlinearities which is an entirely different thingy. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 14:10:10+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 14:02:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb One mechanism Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 13:26:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Literary Persian is Indo-European with the majority of the vocabulary Semitic, 60% & higher for legal\/medical texts, just as English is a nonRomance language with a high ratio of latin vocabulary. Same for Turkish w\/ high ratio of Persian & Semitic vocabulary. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 12:09:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Of course. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 10:59:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Masks Masquerade: Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 10:59:29+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Make lemon out of lemonade. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 10:28:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb https:\/\/biblehub.com\/hebrew\/5908.htm Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 02:45:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It exists in ancient Hebrew Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 02:44:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mistake: \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0646\u0643\u0628\u0648\u062a \u0634\u0628\u0643\u062a\u0647\u0627 should be \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0646\u0643\u0628\u0648\u062a \u0634\u0628\u0643\u062a\u0647 since it appears to be masculine. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 02:19:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He was not eating alone, then. At least not initially. I made a mistake. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 02:15:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Erdogan’s recitation: We have three language groups… Literary Turkish was Persian and Literaty Persian was Semitic (borrowed from both Aramaic & Classical Arabic). \u0644\u0646\u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645 \u0639\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0631\u0642\u064a: “\u0628\u0642\u0635\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0635\u0631 \u0628\u062a\u0634\u062f\u0627\u0644\u0639\u0646\u0643\u0628\u0648\u062a \u0634\u0628\u0643\u062a\u0647\u0627 \u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0648\u0645\u0629 \u0628\u062a\u0635\u064a\u062d \u062a\u062d\u062a \u0642\u0628\u0629 \u0623\u0641\u0631\u0627\u0633\u064a\u0627\u0628 Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-13 02:14:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Apologies never count when they are driven by fear or self-interest; they count only when they are voluntary, spontaneous, and self-motivated. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-12 21:18:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Apologies never count when they are driven by self-interest; they count only when they are voluntary, spontaneous, and self-motivated. https:\/\/thehill.com\/blogs\/blog-briefing-room\/news\/506975-tech-ceo-caught-on-video-yelling-at-asian-american-family#.Xwt87zxp8aw.twitter Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-12 21:16:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb That was my thought. He was soooooo lucky neither you nor I were there. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-12 21:08:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb And @JoshHochschild although he is Catholic. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-12 13:49:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Or, easier, reduce the central state whenever possible. Central State employment in Lebanon is largely patronage (“zelm”). It’s the case in all the Med (Italy for example). Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 20:20:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Along with @ektrit of course Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 20:15:10+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Last time I checked there were no caravan routes in Leb Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 20:02:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What does this have to do with anything? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 19:36:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Among the few who got the theology part: @DrMichaelBonner Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 19:34:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There are ads claiming I will be giving a masterclass somewhere online. I give no masterclasses. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 18:52:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Another one @EGKhoury Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 17:35:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes you cut in 2 compensating halves, as with Principal Values Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 17:20:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Basically only solution I can find without going through the complex domain Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 17:03:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes wiki! I tried to create another one with Ceiling and Floor Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 16:21:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You need the aesthetics of Latex Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 14:23:47+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I did not write this, but I almost thought I did. The Nation state killed Mediterranean cosmopolitanism. Some in #Antifragile Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 14:21:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Because you are promoting PLAGIARISM, which is STOLEN WORK Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 12:09:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Except for Uber ratings! Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 11:55:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb And of course the absurdity of a newspaper that publishes in French for a Christian elite opposing the formalization of local language on grounds of political correctness! Who the fuck are you fooling? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 11:55:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes assumed Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 11:26:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Nigel Warburton, though is highly unethical. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 11:14:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb CORRECTIONS, one by author of the problem, second (inequality becomes equality) thanks to @mcs1870 Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 10:47:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Uber rating is central. The rest is just window dressing. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 10:29:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fucking Liar The piece has NOTHING to do with “Phoenicianism” but origin of spoken language. It explicitly says it does not descend from “Phoenician” Fucking liar. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-11 10:16:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How about 60yo Deads 400? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 21:59:29+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes you need to bounce within 1-2Y, or we are doomed. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 21:58:12+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To illustrate how stable the alpha is for pandemics, here are computations taking each time randomly only 40% of the observations. You get the same with the stock market, wars, etc. https:\/\/twitter.com\/Heinonmatti\/status\/1281618547823849482 Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 21:11:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Actually good ham (Iberico, Serrano, etc.) is 100% from VEGETARIAN pigs. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 20:59:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Triple imbecile, is my article causing their poverty or preventing their exit from it? Imbecile. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 20:32:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not in the book but you need an energy constraint to get the Gaussian. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 18:07:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Language is WHERE power laws were really discovered (George Zipf). Mandelbrot did his thesis on information theory… rediscovering the effect. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 18:02:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tatiana, “Middle Eastern country” is a severe misdescription. Mediterranean is more accurate. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 17:07:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb By now, dolarization works. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 15:41:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For journalists and imbeciles like you, yes. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 14:04:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes, but explained the necessary education is high school\/technical skills. Not university Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 14:02:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Wait and you will get one closer to you. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 13:23:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Me, president of Lebanon? It is like asking a fighter pilot to drive an Uber. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 13:07:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Iranian educational system is impressive. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 13:04:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You make sooooooooooooooooooooo little sense. In what agricultural place does the majority of the people own agricultural land? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 13:01:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ignore ergodic here. It is just fat tailed. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 12:16:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fucking imbecile it is called MATH and if you don’t know what you are talking about do your homework or STAY OUT of math. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 12:15:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Why don’t you fuck off? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 12:01:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It has been FREE on the web for 12 months. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 11:41:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Stat conse of fat tails is 100% ANALYTICAL Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 11:39:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You must be a total idiot since my points are clear enough for the author of the cited article to get it perfectly. Total idiot. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 11:38:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fuck no. It is all decentralized, private, or via religious institutions. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 11:34:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Finally people in decision science are GETTING OUR POINT, starting to move away from naive “evidence based” empiricism, realizing that many psycholophasters such as @CassSunstein and @PTetlock are using fortune cookie tools. https:\/\/www.tandfonline.com\/doi\/full\/10.1080\/13669877.2020.1772346 Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 10:56:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not quite. Educational levels are lower. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 10:49:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I just published Lebanon: from Ponzi to Antifragility Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-10 10:36:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Zoom dinners work! Ask @trishankkarthik to put you on the list Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 23:06:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I remember Pierre Gemayyel transcribed as Bayyar Jamil Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 22:31:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I see. For I have actually added to ergodicity in 2009 for the 2nd edition. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 19:04:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb W sanfirlo 3al sanfiry\u00e9l Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 19:03:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb These were not ADDED. They were there from the beginning. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 18:58:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK, but then please don’t read anything by Anita Brookner. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 17:08:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Chi mangia solo, muore solo. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 17:00:10+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb But I fast usually instead of eating alone. Forces you to socialize. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 16:57:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes for me it’s sushi Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 16:57:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Qui mange seul meurt seul. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 16:37:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I keep saying: don’t expect too many human traits from people who eat dinner alone. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 16:14:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb They keep them for 2000 years Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 15:46:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Block idiots Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 15:45:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Actually Jaffer is half Greek Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 14:50:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No he doesn’t or doesn’t understand. Strawman that misses scaling. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 14:26:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK OK. Tlabt w7d\u00e9. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 14:25:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb ASYMMETRY Someone wants to interview my “enemies”. Tried to make a list: I cannot find one who knows MY work. But I know THEIR works. Alas, *almost* all my enemies are people angry because I am going after them(“BS BUSTING CRUSADE), not because they don’t like my work. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 14:11:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Which grinder should I get. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 13:28:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Will this work? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-09 12:50:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Comme si c’\u00e9tait du sport! Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-08 22:18:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) Sartre also had the decency to write to the Nobel committee asking for his name to be removed from consideration. His refusal was not an ex post free option. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-08 19:48:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The minute you have an affiliation, you are no longer to be trusted with your opinion. The patron saint of intellectuals Jean-Paul Sartre declined the Nobel Prize in Lit because did not want to be \u201cinstitutionalised\u201d. His opinions would reflect on the Nobel & vice versa. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-08 19:45:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Also PREASYMPTOTICS, the topic of STAT CONS OF FAT TAILS Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-08 17:25:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Forgot that I discussed ergodicity in The Black Swan! Second edition, 2009. cc:@ole_b_peters Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-08 17:18:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes the identity becomes an inequality. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-08 16:14:43+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The wine cooler Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-08 16:13:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Power law is always for the tails, as x->+-\\infty Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-08 15:42:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is ~~ or + O(f(x))^5 Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-08 02:02:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You do not want to be “cancelled” by 1) Your barber 2) Your butcher 3) The owner of your favorite restaurant The rest can go f*** themselves. #BeingIndependent Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-08 01:58:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is Arcsin[h], which is log[h + Sqrt[1 + h^2]] Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-08 01:52:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Reminder: You do not become free by becoming prominent. You will be canceled if you stray from the monoculture. As in Kundera’s *Joke*, they will find something you said somewhere that you don’t even remember. Your public “apologies” will make you look even more vulnerable. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 21:55:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I mean PPP is a fraud and I agree with @PeterSchiff Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 21:13:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fraud, again. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 20:38:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Shipped July 12 latest Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 19:27:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fuck that! This is what I do Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 19:15:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Computer, both LateX and Mathematica Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 19:07:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Must be f’>1 Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 18:53:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Typo Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 18:49:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is always embarrassing to fail to solve something when one’s picture is on it. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 18:47:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In case it rains. [Note that all non-math related commentators will be blocked] Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 18:24:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb IMBECILE it’s the virus that’s sabotaging the economy. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 18:13:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He claimed he should meet patients and shake hands, mingle with them. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 18:13:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The best approach is to eyeball the “Karamata point”. You can recognize it when you see it. No other approach works as well. @Heinonmatti Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 16:58:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Early virus denial got Boris Johnson, Bolsonaro so far. A few left… Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 16:38:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Keep Scott Adams outside matters with any quantitative\/scientific or logical dimension. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 16:03:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The draughtsperson used a Disraeli novel. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 13:57:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It was drawn from description Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 13:54:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mazel tov Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 12:04:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is called “opinion against interest”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 11:14:42+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The great Mandelbrot, during his naturalization exams. Examiner: “how many stripes…” M: “what is a stripe? The white or the red”? I had EXACTLY the same reaction. What people call “stripe” is cultural, has tacit foundations. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-07 01:17:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Evidence that people pay for the Chanel brand to impress their neighbors, not for the underlying quality. It is all about buying certification, not knowledge. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 23:36:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Or mathematicians! Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 23:34:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb IQ is not NorthernEuro-centric or anthropocentric (i.e., representing a type of intelligence for a certain environment). No. It is just NERD-CENTRIC. It is also part of a sinister racial\/eugenist program. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 20:47:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Institutes based on the ideas of (dead) anti-rent seekers are populated with employees who use the institute for rent seeking. Nonprofit organizations should have an expiration date. https:\/\/twitter.com\/PatFitzgerald23\/status\/1280217058677084160 Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 20:27:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 18:06:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Where is the list? There must be others. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 18:00:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Reason 1 – Real estate developers Reason 2- Professors … Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 17:51:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I support Pinker. Yes, he’s a BS operator posing as a scientist. Yes he is clueless abt genetics. Yes, he has no erudition yet writes abt the enlightment. But they’re not going after him for this. If they get him they can get ANYONE who depends on the system. #LeavePinkerAlone Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 15:28:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Did you get a copy? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 14:52:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thanks Atrin! Here is the summary graph, with legend on right: Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 11:36:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A reminder that #deaths from COVID is a *lower bound* not an estimate. Many people will die months later (fellow was 41, died after 3 m). How many? NO IDEA. Too much uncertainty. Furthermore media statistics & numbers do not seem to focus on morbidity. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 11:14:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ha! It is NOT symmetric, goes mostly in one direction. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 11:07:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness applied to regression slopes. Random points ALWAYS produce a slope. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 10:46:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Olympic lifts! Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 10:09:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Projects that “brew” grow best! Indeed we need to revisit. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 10:01:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bravo! Do you know how much caffeine there in the output of a small Brikka? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 09:59:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am glad this prick is not in Lebanon. Where I am spending more and more time. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 02:51:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hi, thanks Let me see if @yaneerbaryam can be interested Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 02:22:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He has a series of such posts. I looked at his CV in disbelief: “prestigious” publications in econ journals which tell you economics MUST BE a citation ring. I can understand BS Vendors like @PTetlock publishing in psych journals. But this is economics, a bit more quantitative. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 02:07:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Incompetence so, so extreme can only be dealt with by counting it as pure fraud. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-06 01:44:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You can always tell. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-05 22:27:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Probably late Bronze age, then remember name was Baal, then temples of Bacchus and Jupiter. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-05 19:50:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hint: name is Baal Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-05 19:31:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Baalbeck 2020 Live! In the most impressive Graeco-Roman temple left. https:\/\/youtu.be\/KQ0k8UE651E via @YouTube Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-05 19:18:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sunday Math du Jour in memory of @CutTheKnotMath I build in the days of Alexander Bogomolny a program to “cheat” with proofs of inequalities. Here it is Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-05 17:36:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If “straightforward” please present straightforward solution or you get blocked. Thanks. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-05 13:08:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes, tighter bound! Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-05 13:02:42+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Llave is uneven: some packets foam, others don’t. And the Illi for Mokka doesn’t foam. Is it from the degradation\/loss of oil ? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-05 11:58:10+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not hard, but I guess there is a hint that I should post. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-05 10:02:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I’ve never met a rich nitpicker. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 22:40:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Your alpha is wrong. Eliminate values to the left and redo. It is not close to the points on the right. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 22:10:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Was told by doctas they got the hang of immunosuppressants etc. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 22:03:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not yet. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 21:37:12+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb These answers are an intelligence test Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 21:36:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Happy birthday America. Today was born the first modern state democracy and (still) by far the most robust one! Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 21:30:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Also Nice to see my arguments circulating: simple powerful points that appear obvious once you hear them. ” a quick twitter thought, if IQ was highest Northern Europe as usually claimed why has N. Europe remained so primitive compared to other places for most of history?” Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 21:24:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The book has a bio. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 20:16:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Except for @GrantSSC training videos are mostly trainers theorizing to the camera, sometimes 95% of the time. Not good for people with short attention spans (like myself). With Grant, you see short videos of movement. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 18:41:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/ You can complain that Youtube should not cancel him as it should be open to all. But DO NOT claim that someone is repressing “science”. There is no science. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 17:47:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Charlatan @StefanMolyneux promoted quackeries as scientific facts (incl country IQ) to >1 million YouTube subscribers. Includes episode abt me. His Youtube was cancelled. Don’t tell me it was about science. There is no “science”. It’s about hate. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 17:42:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Charlatan @StefanMolyneux promoted quackeries as scientific facts (incl country IQ) to >1 million YouTube subscribers. Includes episode abt me. His Youtube was cancelled. Don’t tell me it was about science. There is no “science”. It’s about hate. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 17:38:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb They normalized. Ha! Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 17:20:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I meant @PTetlock Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 16:25:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Has nothing to do with shame\/no shame. Has to do with binarization of people into groups. We Meds may want to be multiculturals because WE cross many cultures. Nobody shd be able to stop us. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 16:24:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Indeed. But it is prevalent in universities & state policies. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 16:17:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Then why does Arabism cling to a monolithic identity? It is pure fascism. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 16:12:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Here are the levels of understanding of probability. Many people discuss probability without knowing what it means: someone like @Ptelock comes at bottom. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 16:11:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Great. Plomin makes a critical mistake nobody noticed: 1) transitivity and 2) noise (he himself wrote that you correlation at .8 with your own scores). Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 16:07:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 15:01:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 15:01:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 15:00:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My point is that you cannot do “science” without knowing & rigorously applying statistics & you cannot do statistics without knowing & rigorously applying mathematical statistics & you cannot do mathematical statistics without knowing & rigorously applying probability theory. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 14:35:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I blocked a lot of responders repeating “look at empirical evidence” or “this is science” used by mountebanks such as @charlesmurray, @primalpoly, and ignorant psychologists. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 14:24:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Do Average not Total. Also as a discipline use n>10K since it is a free option This you can do analytically, simple binomial. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 14:21:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You don’t get it. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 14:18:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There is a sinister racist-eugenist program tying intelligence to race, meant to degrade populations, with policy implications on welfare, immigration, & more sinister matters. The country IQ is fake news, entirely concocted. AND IT IS CONTINUING! Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-04 14:15:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Localism means focusing on water and electricity rather than geopolitics and Iran\/Saudi Arabia, etc. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 21:28:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 20:09:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Actually loglogplot gives…worse. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 19:44:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You mean with math? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 18:38:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Losing weight has its disadvantages! On texhn\u00e9-epistem\u00e9 by Big time Tommy https:\/\/youtu.be\/WnPXkbpqlIk via @YouTube Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 18:31:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The cook for RWRI Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 18:24:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I block conspiracy theorists. Sorry nothing personal. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 15:23:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Imbecile! Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 15:22:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1\/n Attention #LebanonProtests The US ambassador may be a great person with great intentions but it is not a good idea to associate the protests w\/a foreign entity & GEOPOLITICS. This WILL make the problem geopolitical w\/East-West tensions when it is entirely local. #Localism Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 11:44:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fuck the French. They got the sophistication in the Levant\/Med during the Crusades: sorbet from Tripoli, scalions from Ashkelon, sauces with herbs from the Levant\/Mediterranean. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 10:55:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb foreword Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 10:53:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I thought it came from Safaitic… mayy etc. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 10:35:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Have you see this? It spread a lot. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 10:16:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends, please help correct this foreward. Thanks Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 10:12:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 09:31:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is so much easier to do it online. Many more people can participate who could not afford a trip to NY Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 09:25:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) French descends from Latin. LEvantine DOES NOT descend from Fus7a. Semitic languages are more diffuse. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 09:23:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1) In PRINCIPIA POLITICA I give examples of Arab fascism: just imposing an identity on someone is fascism. Why is it OK to be a BAsque\/Catalan separatist but not a localist in Leb? The left is very sympathetic to this. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 09:23:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I block idiots. Extremely sorry for the inconvenience. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-03 00:42:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It s the same music, Words@change Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 21:48:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Nor did her father… Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 20:07:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb ETHICS: never look for studies as backup for argument, derive arguments from studies. You get caught. Crackpots are so desperate to show that masks don’t work that they link to any study: turns out nonpeer-reviewed, never cited in 4 y, in a nonjournal but industry magazine. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 20:03:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For our seminar we can hire instructors offshore now that we are online. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 19:47:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You don’t need a visa to work remote… and more and more people are doing so. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 19:33:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Avoid socialites; never befriend rich & famous people who mosly socialize with rich & famous people. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 17:14:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb …particularly squid ink! Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 16:33:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I do not think much of #DominicCummings (@yaneerbaryam & I wrote he gets complexity backwards). But the impostor’s @PTetlock’s “superforecasters” is far worse: a vast deception –similar to screening for rectal cancer using the Department of Motor Vehicles’ standing eye exam. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 16:33:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bought! Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 15:49:42+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is not statistically significant. Why? Fat Tails. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 15:29:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Michael Levitt is banking on his Nobel in… chemistry to apply Ord differential Equa on a stochastic time series! By DEFINITION a stochastic time series is NOWHERE DIFFERENTIABLE (except via smoothing function, which is circular). This crackpot caters to RightWing conspiracies https:\/\/twitter.com\/MLevitt_NP2013\/status\/1277278261979090945 Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 15:24:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is crap outside London, Paris, NY, Brooklyn… But very good in these cities. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 15:08:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This one is good: explains an aspect of skin in the game: revelation of preferences. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 13:43:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If you want to be a bit disturbed: if Socrates lived today he would look much more like this guy than a nerdy philosophy professor checking student grades & academic rank who happens to lecture on Socrates. https:\/\/youtu.be\/6VWD5ZMMp1U via @YouTube Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 13:32:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No connection, just interest. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 12:51:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bert, visit Beirut when I am there. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 12:40:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mediterraneo orientale, non lo so esattamente Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 11:57:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb …and the highest resolution, of course, is Aleppo’s. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 11:53:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Scenarios are TOTAL BS under thick tails! Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 11:22:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Trying to explain the difference between Greek, Turkish, and Lebanese food. They’re all similar but Lebanese food is higher resolution. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 11:16:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. nothing personal. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 10:29:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 02:03:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb https:\/\/www.abebooks.com\/servlet\/SearchResults?kn=Peter+Brown%27s+%22The+World+of+Late+Antiquity%2C%22&kn=Peter+Brown%27s+%22The+World+of+Late+Antiquity%2C%22&sortby=17&cm_sp=inline-_-kn-_-search Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 01:45:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Harry is a card carrying member of our Mask Wearing- BS Buster Probability Brigade. MW-BSBPB, formerly BSBPB Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 01:44:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1 min Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 00:32:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Nice travel suitcase. Very nice. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 00:30:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I have an extra copy of the real thing somewhere. You must return to Amazon. Was printed by a robot. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 00:09:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not a subset. Conditional probability. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-02 00:03:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Then tried dried pasta. Worked beautifully. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 23:06:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I tried pasta. Best ingredients, so went for fresh pasta. Failed miserably with fresh pasta: was not aldente, rather the reverse. Wonder why dried pasta is better than fresh. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 23:00:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb THIS IS A SCAM. Do not send $$Dear @YouTube This is a SCAM. I have been reporting for 24 hours. They are impersonating me. Even sent my passport screenshot to show it was not my channel. I know of 20 people who reported. Why is @Youtube so slow in reacting? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 22:15:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Scam alert! Not me Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 21:57:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If you like my oeuvre you should hate nitpicking. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 19:16:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 18:41:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends of Maestro @CutTheKnotMath, RIP I am writing an intro to the book on Probability riddles, please share anecdotes if you have one. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 18:11:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Speaking a language is NOT speeches & declamations but conversation. For 500 years Europe used Latin without speaking it. Mafhum? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 17:35:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (Ignoring the false positives\/false negatives as too small an effect here) Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 17:12:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb ANSWER (FRAMEWORK): We can use this very simple approach for conditional probability: if those who tested have more positives in them. So much less than 1%, with some information we can get closer. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 17:09:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb QUESTION If ~1% of people tested in NY test positive, assuming nonrandom testing, what is the proportion of people infected? Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 16:26:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In Lebanon it used to be Christians who loved Classical Arabic. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 16:17:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is actually (partly) here in our debate with Ioannidis. I would not debate @Ptetlock Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 15:48:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 15:39:10+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What kind of nonsense is this? Because I debunk bullshitters everyone is not a bullshitter. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 15:38:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tetlock is an academic fraud. A total academic fraud. More, later. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 15:27:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Why is Arabic the world’s most difficult language to learn?(“fus7a” & “modern literary arabic”) Simply because it is NOT spoken. And @Safaitic & @PhDniX showed was NEVER spoken as such. It’s a COMPLICATED literary construction by poets\/scholars. Local languages are EASY. Permalink<\/a> 2020-07-01 15:24:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes but my objective is to be a human, which includes some strength, not to become strong. Molto differente Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 19:59:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb One week… We sold out the first printing! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 19:36:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Merci Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 19:31:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Neither, in Jan. Quarantine\/Reduced mobility. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 19:28:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Two ways to look at it. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 18:54:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb FRAUD ALERT Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 18:42:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, it is not (1.01)^365 since I used Log[deaths date t]-Log[deaths date t-1] so my growth rate is the exponential one. Hece Exp[365\/100]. Look at code above. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 18:34:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb They are not @nntaleb’s ideas. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 18:31:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Here is my code Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 18:12:47+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Actually the graph is using true exponential growth, so Exp[365\/100] Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 17:47:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb COVID-19 Just a reminder that something that keeps growing at 1% a day gets multiplied by 38 in one year. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 17:35:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Doesn’t count unless you start from the floor. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 15:37:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No its speed is preasymptotic and distribution specific Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 12:55:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There is no depth. Simply, LLN Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 12:27:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Il faut attendre un peu. J’ai un format. A suivre Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 12:14:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Lorenzo there is not much more in the book. All about LLN Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 12:06:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb On devrait collaborer sur le “country IQ”. J’ai vu vos commentaires. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 11:15:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I made mistakes in that direction. Never the other. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-30 11:11:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No no no, not what i am saying! Centralism is function dependent. Benoux is in bad faith. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 20:15:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Akademik? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 19:00:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb More interesting is the plural of \u062a\u0628\u0639. We say \u062a\u0628\u0639\u0648\u0644\u064a In Zahl\u00e9 they say \u062a\u0628\u0639\u064a\u0646\u064a The plural for \u062a\u0627\u0639 is \u062a\u0627\u0639\u0648\u0644\u064a @QifaNabki Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 17:24:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sel-fulfillment is PRECISELY what it is not. BS term in the “success” literature. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 17:04:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thanks! If origin is just \u0645\u062a\u0627\u0639 why do people in East Beirut and North say \u062a\u0628\u0639 for the same thing? In Amioun we use \u062a\u0628\u0639 for \u062a\u0627\u0639 and \u0645\u062a\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0646 for former semi-serfs (before 1860 those who wer subjects of a feudal lord) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 16:49:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No no no no. Use loglogplot (Zipf plot) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 16:10:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Linguam. Lungua = rw\u00e9ya Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 15:33:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Pierre dove hai imparato l’italiano? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 15:28:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Va bene in italiano? “L’assenza di prove non \u00e8 una prova di assenza” Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 15:14:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I block idiots, Mr Hazel. Nothing personal. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 14:40:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Karoun is Armenian, my friend. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 13:55:42+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 13:54:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You don’t need a lot of data for Lindy. just prove it is a power law. 5 points suffice! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 13:52:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A person stopped cycling when his odometer ceased to function, waiting for a replacement. He felt his cycling “did not count”. This explains the difference between an academic & a real scholar. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 13:41:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Lindy does not mean alpha = 2 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 13:33:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb All, depends on structure. Megacorps are borderline Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 13:02:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Am I the first to notice that she has a remarkable lung capacity to shout and scream but none for a surgical mask? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 12:39:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb These are specific villages under Maronite feudal lords Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 12:34:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In Amioun we use Tab3ak and Mte3in to describe people from poor villages. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 12:25:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u0630\u0648 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 11:44:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Weyn inta? Fransa\u061f Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 11:16:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Why is it that in Achrafieh it is \u062a\u0628\u0639\u0643? Different root? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 11:14:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Lebanon. Going there but must be tested twice. 4 days after arrival. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 11:08:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I did not block Benoux because he is bullshitter (he is). I blocked him because he is in BAD FAITH. Gabish? @jbarrpartarr Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 10:58:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In Egyptian becomes \u0628\u062a\u0627\u0639\u0643 . Just wondering abt ancient forms. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 10:44:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL RIDDLE DU JOUR In Maltese & South Med (& Beirut’s Basta), yours is Tieg\u0127ek, \u062a\u0627\u0639\u0643 but there is no obvious Semitic root. Hebrew is \u05e9\u05dc\u05da and Arabic is clumsy \u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0628\u0643 Can it be that \u062a\u0628\u0639\u0643 => \u062a\u0627\u0628\u0639 \u0644\u0643 comes from it? Coincidence w\/ the Latin “tua”! What is the @safaitic? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 10:43:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Advice: buy something already built. Lots of unexpected problems. Sallm\u00e9 khebzek lal khebb\u00e9z wlaw akal nesso! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 01:53:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Noura is very very good. Maybe the colors in the picture. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 01:29:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Oh no! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-29 00:29:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u00c9. Min l Ashrafi\u00e9. M2abil mat3am Al Mayyas min ma jedd\u00e9 eja senet 1923. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 23:36:43+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Actually, being practically from Beirut (3rd generation, though officially from Ancestral Amioun), I can spot the quality of hummus from a picture. Let’s see. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 23:01:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You are realllllly looking for trouble. There are secrets & tricks that are NOT in the recipe books. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 20:53:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes when the ship is drowning you need to sit down and worry about geopolitics. It is people saying such crap that are the cause of the disaster. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 18:21:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Guru! Are you 59 now? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 18:03:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Do you see ME taking instructions from some slow-thinking wage-slave bureaucrat? Do you want to be blocked? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 18:00:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3) Why keep Global Politics for later. [Chapter in SITG] Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 17:58:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You read too much global politics propaganda. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 17:55:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In principle, any municipality is a private co-op group. Making it one single owner can be a problem. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 17:54:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb False dichotomy. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 17:24:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) The idiots at the US State Dept should also stay out of finance. The incompetent US ambassador in #Lebanon made statements supporting #RiadPonzi the most dangerous central banker in history. This is economically and ethically unacceptable, Ambassador shd keep mouth shut. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 17:23:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Re: US Ambassador in #Lebanon, ftntes -Severe problems require coordination & harmony, & the U.S. State Dept is playing GEOPOLITICS at the wrong time -USSD employees are mostly dangerously clueless #IYI interventionistas who see the world ONLY in terms of Geopolitics #localism Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 17:19:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/ For books you reread, read both text and footnotes. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 17:18:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 17:06:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For popular books, read the text, not the footnotes. For scholarly books, read the footnotes, not the text. For social science books, read neither text nor footnote. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 16:43:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What do you mean? That one should answer this? The paper answers it but one needs to know distributions. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 16:38:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes, strangely. Grant, my basement floor is slightly uneven (house built in 1928). Makes one side heavier. Any problem? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 16:32:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You will note that our answer to Ioannidis is… in a footnote. The rest is on how to deal with pandemics. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 16:30:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb They have > life expectancy, INCLUDING suicide. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 16:24:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Spyros don’t be modest. We all learn from you! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 16:19:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Debate with Ioannidis is live! Scientific papers are in, after the initial blog posts. https:\/\/forecasters.org\/blog\/2020\/06\/14\/covid-19-ioannidis-vs-taleb\/ with @yaneerbaryam @DrCirillo Thanks @pierrepinson & @spyrosmakrid ! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 16:16:12+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK, OK, Monday Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-28 01:52:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb One of their olive oil suppliers told me it was the most reliable brand in America. In tests they were among the 4\/~30 who did not cheat with their claims of extra virgin. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 23:35:47+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Mask Wearing BS Busting Probability Brigade has 1) Classico Tiramisu, and 2) White Tiramisu. In quantities! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 23:17:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fucking idiot this is NOT what I am saying. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 20:53:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb All these “distances” are WRONG because of endogamy. I am redoing techniques for distance… See paper Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 20:50:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb IQ follow up Trying to explain the difference between racism, homophily, and xenophobia in Principia Politica. The most destructively racists of all are IQ\/evolutionary psychologists (often “centrists”) trying to put abilities in genetic boxes (the covert eugenist program). Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 20:24:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The most reliable! 100% of my cooking. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 19:05:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Academics try to pass for scholars. Very very few are. Dentists, plumbers, grocers, or elephant trainers try to pass for dentists, plumbers, grocers, or elephant trainers, respectively. Almost all are. #Skininthegame Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 18:51:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Psychologists & pple who deal with IQ bullshit their way w\/categories. I am 1- not lonely (exact opposite, fucking idiot) 2- hostile only to those who mess with me or my weaker friends. But then, verryyyyyyyy hostile 3- veryyyyy arrogant w\/the arrogant. More than you think. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 18:25:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Temperature in the center not edges. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 17:18:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb THanks Hugo. Problem solved! It foams every time. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 17:08:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This map is fraud. Block the imbecile. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 13:18:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Human accomplishment is gerrymandering: All are Meds not former Barbarians Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 13:13:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Stop the masquerade, your honor @JustinWelby “To pass for a Jew or a Nabatean [“Arabes”], a Roman had to pierce his ears or get circumcized, but to pass for a Gaul he needed to put chalk on his face…” [rephrased] Petronius, Satiricon It is Northern Europeans who were outsiders Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 12:21:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes many of these things are BS. Haplo are real. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 11:59:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Centrist” is also a nice formulation that gives cover to Eugenists — evolutionary psychogists and IQ classifiers trying to put not just people but populations into an IQ-based Apartheid. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 10:40:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb With all due respects, you honor @JustinWelby (Archbishop of Canterburry), stop producing racist BS. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 10:16:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Archbishop of Canterburry needs some fact checking: The Christ was not different from Greco-Romans. https:\/\/link.medium.com\/C67bNgJpw7 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-27 10:13:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb When people define themselves as “centrists”, it is often because they are afraid for their reputation. People with integrity define themselves as “it depends on the issue”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 22:47:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How do you say scapellamente a destra in Lebanese? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 22:14:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Venice has its Sarcelles: Mestre. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 21:25:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Unfair I lost 12 lbs! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 20:26:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In cauda probatio Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 20:12:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb DEBATE WITH IOANNIDIS It took me 20 years to clearly formulate the idea that distributional evidence IS the strongest evidence, above naive observational evidence. cc:@PrecPrinciple @RupertRead Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 20:04:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Maybe someone from Koura as we say “mwayy” for mayy, Ipwad for Ipad, etc. [Koura shift] Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 19:55:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Margarita ante porcos Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 18:59:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Using logic with an antagonist is like eating a bison steak with a tea spoon. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 17:47:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mar7aba Buthayn\u00e9. Tlabt\u00e9 skolarship la #RWRI? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 16:50:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb When was the last time you were in Lebanon? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 16:48:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb BULLSHIT Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 15:41:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The fragmented & “failed” states in Italy during their mess, CORRUPTION, INSTABILITY, wars,produced: Michelangelo,Brunelleschi, Pico d Mirandola, Machiavelli, Da Vinci, Galileo, SP Basilica, Doges Palace, Sistine C,Palestrina, Monteverdi, Cimabue, Bocaggio, Petrarch… #Lebanon Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 15:40:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fucking idiot you don’t need a qualifier before posting something I said. Why are you hedging yourself? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 13:58:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I mean what is to come. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-26 00:27:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Indeed. The standards of living are much better IF you have a steady income. Even the safety. It is just geopolitics… Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 23:49:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Indeed, more surprising. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 23:46:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I blocked him because he is a bullshitter and I have some allergy. Here he proved to be an insensitive racist. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 23:12:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The essence of #BLM is that African Americans are mistreated, & that imbecile Mark Manson trying to gerrymander with other origins is insulting (BTW the census classifies all Mediterraneans as white). This is vicious. It is about a community that continues to suffer. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 22:56:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb That sub-imbecile Mark Manson should not decide on people’s race and POC is an insulting designation. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 22:45:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Starting in 8 minutes. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 21:22:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It was it the Talmud \u05d0\u05d9\u05df \u05d4\u05e7\u05d3\u05d5\u05e9 \u05d1\u05e8\u05d5\u05da \u05d4\u05d5\u05d0 \u05de\u05db\u05d4 \u05d0\u05ea \u05d9\u05e9\u05e8\u05d0\u05dc \u05d0\u05dc\u05d0 \u05d0\u05dd \u05db\u05df \u05d1\u05d5\u05e8\u05d0 \u05dc\u05d4\u05dd \u05e8\u05e4\u05d5\u05d0\u05d4 \u05ea\u05d7\u05d9\u05dc\u05d4 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 19:11:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u05d4\u05e7\u05d3\u05d9\u05dd \u05e8\u05e4\u05d5\u05d0\u05d4 \u05dc\u05de\u05db\u05d4 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 19:05:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fake news from Dwaihi Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 19:04:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb @dailyjobs_lb Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 18:58:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 18:44:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The wise @davidboxenhorn once said: The Lord gives you the remedy first, then the disease Works permits frozen? No problemo: companies are now geared for remote work, can hire someone overseas & keep her\/him in their parent’s basement #Indians, #Lebanese don’t need to emigrate Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 18:40:43+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My NY stove is different, a bit high. It is not foaming as well as the one down South. Too high a flame and it is black. Too low, same story. Solution, Maestro Ugo? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 18:20:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The same NYT published crap abt why one should not react, even psycho-pathologized worriers. We got a lot of flack for our Jan 26 piece. Same w\/2008 crisis: published a hit piece on me by that fraud Joe Nocera @opinion_joe then flipped & said we shd have see warning signs. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 17:34:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He was never banned. I just gave him a hard time because of his name. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 15:14:29+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You were amply discussed @alexandersquats @trishankkarthik @VergilDen Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 14:54:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u0645\u0637\u0639\u0645 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 14:54:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The error: We NEVER play Russian Roulette with collective risks. Only with individual risks. #PrecautionaryPrinciple #ScaleTransformation Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 14:35:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Voila your answer Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 14:01:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb New York [Meeting of the Mask Wearing BS Busting Probability Brigade, MW-BSBPB, formerly BSBPB] Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 12:52:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You are using a Brikka, not this. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 12:48:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Found it. Replied. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 12:47:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What are you using? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 12:43:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I meant there was no email from you or any Cypriot national in my inbox. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 12:42:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You don’t understand that COVID probabilities scale up because of contagion. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 12:08:29+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No email Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 11:35:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am not following the fight but I love fights! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-25 10:45:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb When I was a trader, “he’s a nice guy” meant “he’s an idiot”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 22:06:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You guys never heard me speak when I cross madfun. Automatically 100% kouron\u00e9, cursing 90% of the sentences. 7sen met my mother. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 22:04:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Haybe bitballesh bi “mawta mawtek ya seyyed” Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 21:56:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 21:51:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In Amioun pple insult one another to be friendly, Bil m7abb\u00e9. You tell someone “y2abbrak mawt\u00e9k” or “yel3an abul khala2ak” a= “welcome”. Telling someone “we have better kebbe” is not an insult, but a sign of humorous respect. I wonder if it is common elsewhere. @Marcellenassif Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 21:42:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb And we are known to have the WORSE sense of humor of all the Levant. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 21:38:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Amioun is better. Better olives, higher mountains, nicer accent, better kebbe. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 21:35:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This fellow figured out what almost (perhaps all) psychologists of probability got wrong (why I call “superforecasters” a masquerade). Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 21:32:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Usurpation! Olives = Koura. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 19:59:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Never called you a bullshitter. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 19:52:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No need to respond to such stupidity. He did not get our idea. There are ONLY 72 pandemics >1000 people in recorded history. We are using conditional distribution. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 19:52:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Something is hitting soon re:Armenia and migrations. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 19:45:43+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb They don’t do it for a living. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 19:45:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There are other people I will not expose as bullshitters because I broke bread with them. With Tetlock (Phil the Rat🐁@PTetlock) I waited for him to violate certain golden rules of trust before exposing him. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 19:38:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fukuyama is a triple bullshitter. Graeber is not. I may not like his research but he is not a BS vendor. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 19:32:47+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Can you use LateX ? Spreads faster on Twitter. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 19:29:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I never call him a bullshitter. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 19:17:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 22-26% proportion of blue\/green eyes. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 19:17:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Is there such a thing as an erasable tatoo? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 19:14:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends, I am looking to find someone I’ve called a bullshitter who did not eventually turn out to be one. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 19:13:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The rule is people who get tatoos can no longer translate the Incerto. No dispensation was given so far. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 18:56:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My 2nd copy of your book is on the way Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 18:08:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 15:48:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Psychologist commenting on the IQ piece: “(…) but the correlation…” Me: “Define correlation” Psychologist: “…” (silence) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 15:26:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes, he should not diss & pathologize IQ and heritability sceptics. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 15:22:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not about him but this “denialism” crap IS a cover for both racism & centralization. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 15:15:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Les disputes avec Douady sont en fran\u00e7ais. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 14:11:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Racism exists AND is promoted by these IQ fucks. No need to be soft on BOTH racism AND pseudoscience. Gabish? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 14:10:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Voila Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 13:17:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is actually a function of correlation, no need for Gaussian to compute MI. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 13:13:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I have the code. Will post in 2 h. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 13:12:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 12:50:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The fundamental mistake is transitivity of correlation. Plus others of course. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 11:56:12+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am not condemning him, condemning the “IQ denial” stance. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 11:33:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 10:28:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There is an economist who does the stuff, based at George Mason U. I engaged. Total idiot, can’t remember his name. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 10:07:10+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This imbecile just showed how info on IQ is manufactured from left tail. IN SPITE OF CHERRYPICKED EXAMPLE +IQ self-correlate at .8: you have ~1 STD difference w\/yourself. +Death \u2206 betw top brackets=.2, obviously average has no impact. My point! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-24 10:04:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Derida mon cher… Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 23:41:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I block idiots Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 21:20:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My stance on IQ has NOTHING to do with my origins (which rightwing crackpots s.a.@kentaronline don’t know): country IQ is, as I said a fraud: it was NEVER measured (& if it were, you’d have some v. serious surprises). I keep getting these msgs since my IQ piece by RW crackpots Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 20:55:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Human nature cannot change. Our structures must. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 19:51:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I managed to tell France Culture (French ratio) that (unlike their scientists), their intellectuals were BS operators (and have been at least since Julien Benda’s Trahison des Clercs, ~95 y ago). It is equivalent to insulting Catholicism standing in the Vatican in 1933. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 19:22:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Higher level, my friend. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 18:27:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Something is, but not captured by their metrics. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 18:20:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Here is my IQ piece. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 16:23:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tripple imbecile, Plomin’s data OVERSTATES heritability. Your tabula rasa argument does not apply. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 16:08:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Indeed IQ is sinister pseudoscience, so calling someone an “IQ denier” or “heritability denier” is insulting the entier process of science. Evolutionary Psychologists are frausters in a citation ring. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 15:44:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Great! Thanks Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 15:35:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Gene he does not know about a certain computer scientist who lost his job in computer science while NOT writing about computer science. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 15:23:12+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 15:13:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb These programs principally support Fed employees (such as Daly) in their future job prospects on Wall Street which rewards people who comply thanks to the revolving door. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 14:06:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb New stove, in NY. Not working as well. Can we recap? 1) Should the flame be higher or lower? 2) Should I increase at the end? Thanks! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 14:04:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ha! The institution is not free. I am. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 14:02:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He was not free before becoming famous. And he is the true exception. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 13:41:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes, there is NO discipline that allows one to write freely even within the least political subjects. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 13:38:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb J’explique les choses en fran\u00e7ais (enfin j’essaye), 17 minutes de conversation. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 12:39:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You don’t seem to get it. Sorry. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 12:11:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Explain to me why I shd give a fuck about how I “look” to you. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 11:47:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sorry but I block people for sophistry. Nothing personal. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 11:44:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb ACADEMIC “FREEDOM” The illusion held for so long by academics that one can be both free & on a salary is finally crashing. Worse, something J-P Sartre figured out: you cannot be both free & attached to an institution. Any institution. A truck driver is freer than any academic. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 11:28:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is excellent. From you? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 03:34:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Claire, by now you should realize that I have no more use for you, neither for the good nor for the bad. No use at all. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 02:02:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK redid with Imam Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 01:38:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ponit enim personam amici cum induit iudicis [Cicero]” \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0644\u0647 \u0645\u0627 \u062a\u0631\u0643 \u0644\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0642 \u0645\u0646 \u0635\u0627\u062d\u0628” [Imam Ali] Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 01:38:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I mean the protocol Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 01:34:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How should I write it? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 01:33:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mtl l siyese l yun\u00e9n\u00e9: “disown your friends when you reach office”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 01:26:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u0643\u064a\u0641 \u0628\u062a\u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u063a\u062a\u0646\u0627\u061f Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 01:10:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb La2, ghayron. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 01:06:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u0646\u0647\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0644\u0627\u063a\u0629\u061f Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 00:56:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The 2 of you are supposed to be fighting, as a good thing for #RWRI Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 00:37:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Byzantine-Sassanite war of 602-620. We need @DrMichaelBonner to get its importance. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 00:36:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u0648\u064a\u0646 \u0647\u064a\u062f\u0627\u061f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0647\u062c\u061f Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 00:33:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb They LIKE militarism Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 00:27:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Nothing yet. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 00:26:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I never defended HCQ; my point was that the studies “debunking” were flawed and IN THE ABSENCE of further information, take what has the track recort of toxicity. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 00:25:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/ So I am hated by Libertarians over masks\/Silver Rule, Socialists for fractal Liberty, Democrats (US) for interventionism\/paternalism, Republicans (US) for militarism, Both for corporatism, eugenists for IQ debunking, Arabist fascists for Mediterranean localism, by Statists… Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-23 00:21:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Imbecile. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 23:08:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hahahahahaha Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 23:06:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is tooooooootal nonsense. It is dishonest to play race with such matters, and even more dishonest to lie about it. Caucasian (“white”) \u2260 “European” as per EU membership. https:\/\/medium.com\/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics\/no-jesus-was-not-a-nonwhite-refugee-who-would-have-voted-for-43779209eea4 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 21:19:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (BTW my experience is that Keto strips measure principally hydration, which causes a lot of noise. Useless.) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 20:23:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It’s a yuuuuuuuuge war! Brought Zoroastrianism\/Nestorianism to the Levant, later Maronitism\/Shiism indirectly. Khosroe-van = Kesserwan in Lebanon Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 19:34:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Keto sticks measure water more than Keto! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 19:31:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I took shortcuts. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 19:24:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends, a Keto Question Humans keep ar. 2500 cal in “carbs” stored in muscles & liver. So does one enter ketosis by fasting 24h (assuming 2500 cal\/day expenditure)? If so, shouldn’t one remain subsequently in ketosis regardless of food composition if <2500 consumed afterwards? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 19:23:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No Sci Fi, never liked it. Except for HG Wells, of course. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 17:27:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Separate floor Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 17:20:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb After nearly 4 months, the emotion of being reunited with my (nontechnical) library. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 17:11:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Which is why we need precise terms for that crap. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 16:58:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The worst is: what to do when it comes from “white” people? Chromoclassification is a problem. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 16:50:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It’s a HE; he changed his picture. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 14:17:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I mean here is the technical Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 12:52:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb And of course this came AFTER I debunked the sinister programs. 1) BS with IQ metrics https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 2) Less technical commentary Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 12:51:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is not the defense of free expression but the COVER of free expression that I am pointing out. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 12:36:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Indeed. Arabs were themselves trying to NOT be Persianized. Baghdad was Persian speaking and Arabs brought more Arabic speakers, ironically the Mizrahi Jews, who were up to 50% of the population of Baghdad. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 12:15:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb MLK’s program was civil rights (which he NEVER hid) and of course requiring free speech. Others claim their program free speech but in fact theirs is a sinister Eugenics agenda. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 12:03:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How about when you walk? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-22 02:04:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Who she? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 21:14:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Xenophobia, discrimination, etc. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 18:34:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not necessarily. You can hate a group precisely because you think they are successful –antisemitism Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 18:08:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In other words: “I don’t want your group around” is xenophobia. “Your group has inferior mental abilities” is something else. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 18:01:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I separate the 2 in Principia Politica. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 17:56:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb One is xenophobia, one is the degradation in the human hierarchy. Not same. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 17:54:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is never really racism against the “prestige” group. But I agree some groups are losing the prestige status. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 17:43:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How long you’ve used it? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 17:31:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Another route from @SrinivasR1729’s : You can use the generating function of the inverse binomial coefficients and prove == Pi. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 17:21:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It’s a HE. He just changed picture. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 14:36:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb As a matter of fact central states discouraged the use of masks for the first 3 months Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 14:21:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This imbecile doesn’t event get what “white means” and who’s in and out of it. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 14:12:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mazola is poison. Total poison. I spent 4 months without eating in restaurants. Only butter and olive oil. Never felt stronger (max lifts), lost 12 lbs. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 13:47:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1) I explain in #SkinintheGame scale transformations: Bitcoin is a good idea but almost all bitcoiners are total idiots, can’t get nuances beyond fortune cookies. 2) My idea is (fractal) State is needed ONLY for systemic tail risks, not messing w\/daily life. Same as medicines. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 13:16:29+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is not chauvinism: just to let you know that the “prestige” for Northern European is a recent phenomenon & that they have NOTHING to do with Greco-Roman civilization from which they claim descent. They have no claims to supremacy, so chill out and respect others. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 12:45:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A lot of Nilotic civilizations plus Aethiopia. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 12:42:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb GS correlates does not determine scholarship. Peterson is a quack. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 12:25:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Makes it worse: statism Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 11:56:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 11:36:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Charles Murray their lord is not a scholar. Not one of them is a scholar. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 11:30:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not one here is a scholar. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 11:29:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The IQ story: not most, but ALL of these “researchers” and “statisticians” are statistically ignorant. These psychologists don’t even know what metrics s.a. correlation mean. Science is science. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 11:21:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In 1900 the Aleppo region was richer than most places today in the EU. It was the wealthiest area of the Roman Empire (providing 4-5 emperors, 5 popes, etc.) All it took is the Baath centralized state to destroy it. They still don’t get it. Discussion in #Antifragile Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 11:16:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Almost ALL those who claim to be fighting for “free speech” are fighting to promote sinister racial ideas. That’s the case w\/ IQ-race “research”, race “realism”, Quillette\/ @charlesmurray\/@clairlemon KKK’s David Duke has a “Free Speech Press” w\/books on “Jewish Supremacism”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 11:10:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The problem is the alternative brings Cass Sunstein types back to the white house. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 01:27:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is one thing to have young leaderless protesters spreading viruses locally. But here the chief executive of the US is organizing the mother of all REDISTRIBUTION of germs across the country… And then they complain about the “economic costs” of “fighting” the pandemic. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 01:14:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (That’s what people used to tell his parents. Some things don’t cross generations.) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 00:54:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You still get comments like these. Do they think I will turn the other cheek? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 00:32:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is commonly known as a “superspreader event”. (Although perhaps 2-10% of people have masks) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-21 00:14:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Destroyed by centralization Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 23:40:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes mostly from one obervation on the right. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 19:59:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Code Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 19:40:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is the histogram Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 19:39:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “If?” Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 19:35:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How UNCERTAINTY about the exponential growth rate translates into higher expected fatalities. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 19:30:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Never trust someone who puts ethical in their titles. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 18:45:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Never Lebanon. I met Zilkha who said: I was dispossessed in Egypt, Iraq, and Syria. Never Leb. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 17:23:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Kll l bil 3arab\u00e9. Kamm wa7ad? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 17:00:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb COME PREVISTO In our papers, @DrCirillo and I have made sure our results are resistant to lies. We actually treated all historians as liars via bootstraps –yet no change for the tail exponents for wars and pandemics. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 16:57:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Wassil 3 a NY Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 16:50:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Guess which one is an academic? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 16:41:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Phi (Golden ratio). The proof is via tricks Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 16:27:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I had that idiot on mute. Berenson has the logical clarity of an oil spill. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 13:52:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb M, I have an idea for you. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 13:37:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Meshia7o Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 13:24:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Wait 5 years. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 13:22:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Be patient Pietro Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 12:45:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Being the judge. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 12:44:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You must have the discipline to seek revenge and deliver punishment when you don’t really feel like it anymore; and do it purely out of a sense of duty, acting as a sentencing judge rather than a plaintif. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 02:23:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ahla bil tayf\u00e9 ya Theodosius Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 02:16:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I block idiots. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 01:06:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4\/n This is similar to aversion to plane crashes. A tiny risk of crash, orders of magnitude smaller than death from COVID, causes enough people to avoid flying in the 737 max to make it unprofitable. Governments follow. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 00:56:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3\/n Pea-brained pseudo-libertarians (PBPL) attribute the loss of economic activity to the “lockdown” brought by “government”, not to the virus Few who are neither brain-dead nor PBPL wd voluntarily go expose themselves to viruses. Risk aversion is responsible for economic effects Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 00:38:12+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/n I am not saying 1) here is the authority of Hayek, or 2) Hayek was a “true” libertarian. I am just fed up with sociopaths with reduced brain functions citing Hayek to justify their crackpot theories about the pandemic. Period. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 00:32:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb HAYEK vs PSEUDOLIBERTARIANS For those invoking “libertarianism” in front of natural calamities, some news for you: Hayek explicitly gives a role to the “state”: protection against violence, epidemics, and natural disasters. Namely; TAIL RISKS. He understood uncertainty\/tails. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-20 00:03:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 23:34:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Isn’t that Monte Carlo with smart sampling? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 22:37:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u0628\u0623\u064a\u0627 \u0644\u063a\u0627\u061f \u0628\u0644\u0634\u0627\u0645\u064a\u061f Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 21:44:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How about this? https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/CARE-Natural-Sponge-Cloths-Count\/dp\/B0078DQXQC\/ref=sr_1_12?dchild=1&keywords=sponges+extra+thin&qid=1592602856&sr=8-12 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 21:42:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I do 3-5x, but @GrantSSC has a theory that 10x deadlift once in a while helps break out of plateaus. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 20:27:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What’s the official SS dogma on gloves, @GrantSSC ? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 19:57:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Weightlifting questions. Friends, how do you deal with hand calluses for high reps? The pain starts after 8 reps regardless of weight. + Chalk: no effect for high reps, helpful at low reps\/high load. + Straps: using them= cheating as they prevent the wrist from getting stronger. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 19:47:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 19:37:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In Aramaic! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 19:29:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb E nato ad Alessandria Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 18:54:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I did not make a big deal to protect him. But now things are different. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 18:51:43+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Come Umberto E. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 18:48:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Institutions evolve to be taken over by rent-seekers. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 18:40:12+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not “leftist”. Soviet. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 18:38:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb So “sectarianism” means nonBaathist. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 18:29:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Antifragile = bottom up sectarianism that clashes with the centralized Baath program. It targets directly the Baath centralization in a chapter. The person in question is some type of Baathist-fascist, etc. Yet in charge of the philosophy dept. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 18:28:43+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb By https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=2HaZQbAAAAAJ&hl=en Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 18:20:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb AUB is the ONLY place on the planet, in 41 languages, where my work has been banned. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 18:14:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb An incident of the sort at NYU would cause a complete riot. The fact that they exploit labor AND deprive them of freedom is a serious problem. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 17:44:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Wael, listen to Ma7mud, if you like AUB. They banned my book in the philosophy department –yes, banned. Tells you something about the culture of the institution. We will know more later; but first let help it survive. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 17:38:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In CH they pay taxes mostly locally. Here we send the bulk to DC. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 17:17:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb These FUNDS are Federal from taxes they paid. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 16:42:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Coercion of the smaller units & forcing them to conform to the central command is a Soviet thing. Counties, towns, individuals should be free to set their own rules. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 16:28:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For a long time, until the early 20th C, Byzantines took the attitude “neither East nor West” or “both East or West”, or, even better “East and West are a construction outside our interests”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 13:27:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I read the passage when he was *riding* high (literally). Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 13:04:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Byzantines were considered part of the East (in France, “les orientaux”). Same with Gibbon who was allergic to “Asian” mores and love of luxury . Example: Bertrand Russell’s History of Western Philosophy: Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 12:31:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Roman army rule: action removes fear. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 12:13:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Maria Mavroudi’s lecture For those not familiar w\/her work: Byzantium got bad press during the enlightenment because 1)Christian, 2)Autocracy, 3)For Western Bleached Barbarian (WBB, my term) supremacism, “Rome”=German Holy R Empire Intellectual contributions dismissed by the WBB Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 12:08:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There are “Libertarians” (sociopaths looking for cover) and true Libertarians. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 11:18:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Imbecile, breathing multiplicative germs are not aggression? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 01:24:47+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Better with the syrup. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 01:17:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb MASKS Libertarians are behaving like abused stepchildren with premature insomnia, bad school reports,& the moral clarity of house termites. It’s not because SOME states are requiring masks that they MUST be bad. States also ban murder. Should homicide be an assertion of freedom? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 01:16:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb They also banned murder. Imbecile! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 00:09:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You have the understanding of a parrot overdosing on bad vodka. Get off Twitter. Nobody mentioned any government. This is called ethics. Imbecile. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-19 00:06:42+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A7ikar preceded Aesop with his fables. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 23:22:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A few years behind my tweet! Got to find it! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 23:18:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 22:30:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Remember that by NOT wearing a mask you will contribute to someone else’s death AND will hurt the economy. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 22:05:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not quite; localism has worked best under some Imperial supervision (Roman empire, Hapsburgs, etc.) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 20:54:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Is this in favor or against some adult supervision, say from the IMF (or something similar)? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 18:16:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Koura? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 16:50:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A sad feature of these campus events is that academics like @robinhanson, @hsu_steve or others, with the intellectual solidity of a bag of marshmallow marinated for weeks in Lebanese grape vinegar, are now free-speech victims rather than just nonsolid authors. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 16:44:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) NOT SAYING the world has Fat Tails. That, we have known for a while. Saying TOOLS of analysis & THEORIES are INCOMPATIBLE w\/Fat Tails. They become totally uninformative. Example: Building a portfolio on “correlation” and “St deviation” or making inf “regression” is BS. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 16:24:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No I am saying the TOOLS of analysis are uninformative. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 16:21:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The less polite abstract of my talk next Thursday: It is not 99% of modern finance that is practically, mathematically, & scientifically BS. It is 100%. The ENTIRE foundations are made for thin tails. From my next book. https:\/\/www.researchers.one\/article\/2020-01-21 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 16:10:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bingo, not from Syriac Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 13:08:42+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The exception that confirm the rule: monopolistic situations and market shortages. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 12:52:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hard to understand why people are so blind to the difference between necessary and sufficient. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 12:43:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To be free, you must be the customer. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 12:25:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You don’t get the paper, nor the NAP. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-18 11:29:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Must be kelime, no? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 22:23:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Unlikely Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 20:48:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Very, very unlikely. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 20:41:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb That’s babylonian @EdmondShami Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 20:27:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK OK Found the root for kalam \u0643\u0644\u0627\u0645 To teach, lecture. Stange coincidence with pen Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 20:26:43+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is pronounced “yuuuge” but written “huuuge”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 20:19:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u0643\u0644\u0627\u0645 \u0642\u0644\u0645 2 different roots. one is “word” the other is kalamos. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 20:18:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not for kalaam. it is a kaf \u0643 not \u0642 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 20:09:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Made same mistake. \u0642\u0644\u0645 comes from kalamos. Kalaam (with a k) not sure.Will look. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 20:07:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Strangly, daftar (notebook) comes from deftero in Greek. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 20:06:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Great book Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 17:15:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Predictions are self-fulling or self canceling” You can’t judge forecasts that lead to action because of the forecast (say caution). Can’t believe these IYS not seeing it. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 17:03:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb UBERSTATISTICIAN ANDREW GELMAN: (Some) forecasting for COVID-19 has failed: a discussion of Taleb and Ioannidis et al. \u00ab Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science https:\/\/statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu\/2020\/06\/17\/some-forecasting-for-covid-19-has-failed-a-discussion-of-taleb-and-ioannidis-et-al\/#.Xuo_8FKD5KA.twitter Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 16:08:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb C’e un’espressione italiana vicino al l’antico proverbio greco: “Consiglio di vecchio e aiuto di giovane” Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 14:11:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 14:02:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No need for theorem. Absence of mean is absence of mean. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 14:00:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Modern Greek (attempt) \u0394\u03cd\u03bd\u03b1\u03bc\u03b7 \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03bd\u03ad\u03bf\u03c5\u03c2 \u03a3\u03c5\u03bc\u03b2\u03bf\u03c5\u03bb\u03ad\u03c2 \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03b7\u03bb\u03b9\u03ba\u03b9\u03c9\u03bc\u03ad\u03bd\u03bf\u03c5\u03c2 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 13:45:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Strength from the young Advice from the old Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 13:44:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 13:26:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u039d\u03b5\u03bf\u03b9\u03c2 \u03bc\u03b5\u03bd \u03b5\u03c1\u03b3\u03b1, \u03b2\u03bf\u03c5\u03bb\u03b1\u03c2 \u03b4\u03b5 \u03b3\u03b5\u03c1\u03b1\u03b9\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03bf\u03b9\u03c2 [Corpus paroemiographorum graecorum] Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 13:21:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u039d\u0395\u039f\u0399\u03a3 \u039c\u0395\u039d \u0395\u03a1\u0393\u0391 , \u0392\u039f\u03a5\u039b\u0391\u03a3 \u0394\u0395 \u0393\u0395\u03a1\u0391\u0399\u03a4\u0395\u03a1\u039f\u0399\u03a3 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 13:19:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No branch of traditional conservatism includes creeps like @AnnCoulter. Must be a new reverse-Burkean one. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 12:07:29+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes, it requires a huuuge amount of heroism, physical courage, moral compass, gratitude, Christian values, and not least, classical virtues, to betray intergenerational commitments, sacrifice the weakest, and commit geronticide [that is, the genocide of the elderly]. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 11:04:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Greatest historical irony. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 02:05:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Dear Raj, I am sorry for your loss. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 00:18:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-17 00:12:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To be a person of virtue you need to be boringly virtuous in every single small action. To be a person of honor all you need is to be honorable in a few important things. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 22:19:47+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I used wisdom for nature. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 22:02:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Another lesson: opportunity cost requires a handle on the first moment. How can someone be so clueless, Mr PhD? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 21:22:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How does selection bias and EVT connect to opportunity cost? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 21:19:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ortmann Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 20:26:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Orgman, Phd, explain to us how to do extreme value analysis without extreme values. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 20:24:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I used “Nature” Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 20:14:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb #Lindy Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 20:08:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You can’t teach pigs to fly, Bert. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 19:57:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is not Ioannides but this economist did not catch it. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 19:25:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb One needs to be really, really, really ignorant about statistics (plus an economist) to buy that the entire set of tail events is “selection bias” (this is the standard EVT approach and REMOVING would be selection bias) @DrCirillo Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 19:16:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Odds it came from a jar. No squid with it? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 18:49:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Where? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 18:31:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I was in Palermo EXACTLY a year ago. Naples is more intense. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 17:30:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Palermo is too Phoenician. Taormina is the Greek side. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 17:22:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We only hear about “imperfect” crimes. “Perfect crimes” will never be discovered –by definition. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 17:18:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bingo! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 16:14:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I DO address his points, Nir. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 16:05:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb DEBATE W IOANNIDIS Some asked to discuss @PTetlock’s forecasting. I answered Ioannidis because I think he is wrong. Unlike Ioannidis, Phil the rat🐁 Tetlock is *not even* wrong. He is a despicable BS Vendor who misrepresents the “collaboration” w\/me. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 15:40:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, Oliver. You don’t block people for not understanding something. We all make mistakes all the time. You block people for intellectual dishonesty, which is very, very, very different. cc:@bmiloy Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 15:28:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am careful about propaganda. Both sides in the conflict BS you. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 14:56:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb That’s a local authority. Very different. And compatible with subsidiarity. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 14:55:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You do not seem to realize what’s going on. There is no “movement” but there is an organization, #RWRI whch is nothing bt continuous fights betw. instructors openly disagreeing (2 of whom mut blocked on Twitter), not counting when @Jaffer22915438 comes in to harass us. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 14:13:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If via negative were universal it would be via positiva, no? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 13:48:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What’s wrong with an autonomous zone? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 13:40:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You don’t get it. Both taking OR rejecting lumps from a “movement” are unrigorous. My only request is to avoid falling in the exact opposite trap, namely the genetic fallacy that if it is associated with X then it MUST be wrong. Some things are wrong with Complexity. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 13:33:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The only award is time. The very notion of award goes against the collective iterative process called science. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 13:15:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3a 2bel l alf Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 13:10:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb So @hvairinhos unless you answer the above questions in a rational and responsible way, sorry but you will be blocked. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 12:54:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb PS- I blocked your friend Benoux NOT for disagreeing but for DISTORTING what I and some other people were saying. (For instance nobody is against “specialists”, only untested macroBS citation rings with aggregate variables that are fat tailed.) Never tolerate dishonesty. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 12:43:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb And you think it is the government that is the cause of that or people’s reactions? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 12:35:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 12:13:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Finally, the ideas in the Incerto are about handling uncertainty at the individual and systemic level. They are not about LOCALISM but incl a footnote on how things behave differently at different SCALES. Realize the Prec. Principle is PRECISELY for when localism fails. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 12:04:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1- Population was much much smaller than today (still small) 2- Gov was small, represented at the time <10% of GDP Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 11:57:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The homunculus theory prevailed for a long time by people who wanted human to have a centralized brain. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 11:43:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The other problem is that WE humans are fragile by design and rely on reproduction\/evolution for guidance under uncertainty. WE individuals are not a society. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 11:24:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes that’s my point: subsidiarity. Bottom up does not mean everything is at the bottom. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 11:22:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Saying “a lot of things are centralized” means there is no single command\/control center. The point is that there is no central genetic code interpretation. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 11:22:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb An ant colony is a case in point: there is NO command and control function. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 11:16:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb + Nothing in your body is centralized. + Localism means subsidiarity NOT breaking apart everything into small pieces. Please answer if you disagree. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 11:16:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Imbecile Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 11:14:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Do you agree with the following? + Centralization DOES produce fat tails. + Circuit breakers DO stabilize systems. + Nothing in natural systems is centralized. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 11:12:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, someone communicating with HIS investors is not MARKETING. Imbecile. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 11:01:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The idiot thinks that it is the funds not the journalists that write the headlines, a theory promoted by the uber-charlatan Lopez de Prado. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 10:57:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, it is only moral anachronism if it did THEN conflict with the moral of its day. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 10:47:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is unrigorous, nonsense Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 02:32:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fed up w\/lumping of beliefs: If you hate deficits, you must hate masks If you like bitcoin, COVID’s fatality rate must be low If you hate taxes, HQC has potential but geronticide is OK If IQ testing is a fraud, then moral anachronism\/removing statues I am fed up w all of you. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 02:28:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I had frothy coffee Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-16 01:23:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ma preference etait pour l’immortalit\u00e9. Mais bon… Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 21:45:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3attari2 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 21:41:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It took 5 weeks to get here from France… The complete works (The Czech was translated by Kundera). Now the question: where to start. Most of Kundera’s books are hypnotic. This is literature. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 21:40:42+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, bullshitter. And you claim to be an academic? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 18:31:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Isn’t this called socialism? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 18:04:47+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb They were tests. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 16:33:43+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Show me the man and I will find you the crime”. When you have potential enemies, AND you are not free (like Carlos Ghosn), be paranoid. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 14:52:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tarjam\u00e9 3al tari2 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 14:41:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The other problem people don’t get is that acting EARLY saves $$$and the economy. We proved it Jan 26. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 13:56:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You seem to believe that the disease does not carry economic costs. This is a false dichotomy. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 13:32:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb People who apologize publicly are not sorry for having done something wrong. They are mostly sorry for having being caught. Never apologize publicly. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 13:26:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is not a good analogy. Sweden had not much difference in economic costs from Norway, with 11 times deaths per capita. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 13:15:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A remarkable elegance of reasoning and expression, particularly in his summary: “La ta7dif bi ma la ta3rif” Basically, don’t be fooled by randomness. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 13:05:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You are conflating costs of the pandemic AND costs of dealing with the pandemic. It is the pandemic that has economics costs! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 12:49:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is even more interesting: he who finds a coincidence: “kalam bghayr 3ilm” Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 12:43:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thanks! Interesting :\u0627\u0644\u0642\u064e\u0628\u064e\u0633: \u0627\u0644\u0634\u064f\u0651\u0639\u0652\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0627\u0631. => derive strength from. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 12:34:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How can someone be as clueless as you yet operate as postdoc? Do they have some type of reading comprehension tests? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 12:19:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb And would you translate the Hadith: “saving one’s people from astrology is saving them from sorcery”? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 12:18:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Kazzibu is “distrust” or trear like a liar, no? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 12:11:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Leggere e molto facile. Parlare e facile, ma non troppo. Scrivere bene (con precisione) e troppo difficile. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 11:54:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes it is not Hadith (hence (~) above) but a potent aphorism that effectively translates the accepted Hadith (below it). “Predictions are false even when true” “Predictions are either coincidental or false” \u0643\u0630\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0646 \u0648\u0644\u0648 \u0635\u062f\u0642\u0648\u0627 \u0643\u0630\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0646 \u0648\u0644\u0648 \u0635\u062f\u0641\u0648\u0627 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 11:46:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I blocked this incoherent sub-imbecile SignorErnesto. It is like talking to a drunk parrot. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 11:35:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Imparare dai migliori Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 11:01:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mai troppo! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 10:59:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb la prima tazza del giorno. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 10:48:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He summarizes the discussion Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 10:26:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Exactly. It’s a citation ring. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 01:31:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Blocked him Sweden had yuuuge self-quarantines yet has 11 times the death rate of Norway. Nothing to do with tails. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 01:31:10+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I was diplomatic! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 01:19:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A more usual form would be: \u0623\u0631\u064a\u062f \u0623\u0646 \u0623\u0631\u0627\u0647 \u0628\u0639\u064a\u0646\u064a Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 00:28:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The “evidence based” idiots are locked in a permanent state, i.e. remain “evidence based” idiots no matter what events bring, or what reasoning is supplied to them. Working with @yaneerbaryam on the “evidence based” BS. cc:@BallouxFrancois Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 00:19:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Smells of Google Translate. You should make some mistakes, cher ami. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-15 00:07:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Arabic 2 different meanings \u0645\u0633\u062e\u0631\u0647 \u0645\u0633\u062d\u0631\u0647 One means a joke, the other means related to magic. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 23:40:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb William, time to block the idiot. I had him on mute. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 23:24:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb NonGabish Did you need astrological clearance from the Sanhedrin for the RSHOT? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 21:49:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Actually, it has been attributed to many many people including the infamous Fouch\u00e9. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 21:06:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is universally accepted that the Hadith is: \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0628\u0633 \u0634\u0639\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062c\u0648\u0645 \u0641\u0642\u062f \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0628\u0633 \u0634\u0639\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u062d\u0631 \u0632\u0627\u062f \u0645\u0627 \u0632\u0627\u062f which conveys the same meaning. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 20:47:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Voila Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 20:33:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Bible Code redux Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 20:29:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes it is contested hence the (~). But the hadith version below is the correct one. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 20:19:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb THEOLOGICAL QUESTION Looking for TALMUDIC version: Waged a war on forecasting (vs building things error proof\/convex, not #Fragile) There is a (~) Hadith \u0643\u0630\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u062c\u0645\u0648\u0646 \u0648\u0644\u0648 \u0635\u062f\u0642\u0648\u0627* (distrust astrologers even when correct) *\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0628\u0633 \u0634\u0639\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062c\u0648\u0645 \u0641\u0642\u062f \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0628\u0633 \u0634\u0639\u0628\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u062d\u0631 \u0632\u0627\u062f \u0645\u0627 \u0632\u0627\u062f Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 20:12:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For those who don’t get why I used “Masquerade”: it comes from “mask”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 19:59:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Si, erre moscia. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 19:25:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb On single point forecasts for fat tailed variables [Debate with Ioannidis] Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 19:23:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes in Milan they have the “ladgha” Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 19:22:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The accent is iiiiiiiiiiiitalian as hell. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 17:55:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes but sloooooooooooooow convergence Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 17:52:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Will contact you once I get there and I get my shipment. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 17:51:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Impossible n’est pas francais” (translation: impossible is not a word) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 17:09:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Greek included Rum like me from the Millet classification. Many were Rums. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 17:08:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I will be in NY next week. Come get your copy. Where are you? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 17:07:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Toi aussi tu parles francais? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 17:04:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Donc pas d’ancetres Mendes? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 16:59:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes I went to my textbook and was relieved to see I was careful to define convexity and what I used here as “convexity argument” i.e. benefits from dispersion. Some people call that “Jensen gap”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 16:50:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tu parles francais, Ugo? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 16:45:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Just hit my own record too. Caffe pomeridiano, con un bicchiere di aqua fredda e un po di cioccolato nero amaro. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 16:41:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The debate with Ioannidis has just started. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 16:22:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Imbecile you didn’t get it. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 15:03:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Please do not be offended but I block people for idiotic comments. I am really sorry. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 14:01:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not as good as yesterday but still good! Trick: use the spoon to nudge the valve! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 13:55:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You bet Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 13:16:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb With oil prices under $45, people in the Levant start to self-identify as Eastern Mediterraneans. With oil prices below $22, they self-identifiy as Mediterraneans. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 12:44:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I wear masks inside and visors outside in parks and ventilated areas. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 12:39:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Actually it is even < than p^2 because the conditional p for the noninfected person is even lower. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 12:34:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You’re an idiot. Drinking alcohol brings no systemic risk. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 12:31:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I just published The Masks Masquerade Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 12:18:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Je ne comprend pas. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 10:19:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is late in Napoli! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 00:46:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We can create a symposium on life expectancy that is memoriless where death are 100% due to accident\/malfunctioning not senility. This seems to be close to the case with sharks\/turtles. 400y or 120 y is not too different. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-14 00:12:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Exists neither in the North nor in Beirut nor in Kesserwan. Nor on TV. Nor in Northern Syria. So must be in some area I have never visited. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 21:36:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Never heard these. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 21:29:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK, replace for now with “gains from dispersion” or “gains from JE”, and see if that so-called “abuse of language” makes sense. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 21:28:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thanks. This is just starting. There is a bit to come. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 21:14:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Again, fuzzy definitions. For some, regular variation class. For others anything subexponential. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 20:46:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To discuss in Napoli. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 20:42:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Finance; whatever benefits from jensen’s inequality. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 20:36:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I see we are using different lingo. For me,”convex” is long dispersion. For you it is the shape of the function with respect to a parameter in an optimization thingy. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 20:29:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes I am conditioning on the left side (minimum increment) =1. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 20:20:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Variance is diff from mean, so minimal when equally spaced, no? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 19:58:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Variance. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 19:44:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Dear @mcs1870 is the convexity idea clear? Variance increases when you have dispersion, and minimal when equally spaced. When you think like option traders, you view everything in terms of convexity. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 19:36:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hormesis is a special case. A convex payoff is antifragile but not hormetic. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 19:28:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Voila @joe_shipman Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 18:54:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How I explain it Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 18:53:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ciao Carlo. Shipman @joe_shipman and @m_j_wiener solved it very simply showing that the minimum of the ratio lhs\/rhs is reached for equal gaps. I will post when I come back, both simple and more complicated routes. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 18:26:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ho visto il film ieri. Molto divertente. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 17:15:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (typo, was square). We can actually end up with tighter bounds. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 15:29:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Oui! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 15:28:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I agree. But you need to link\/show the min is reached when separation is minimum on rhs, and max of min on lfs. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 15:16:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hint: we have the maximum of the minimum distance between points in relation to the variance. Other hint. Best route: use convexity of the right hand side. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 14:52:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 14:49:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He is. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 14:10:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bingo. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 14:08:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There is a chance this may be entertaining. [Note: I apologize but authors of non-math related comments will be blocked.] Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 13:56:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It’s a type I process (variations are from Mediocristan). To use it to justify direct genetic modification is clueless. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 13:43:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hence the Homsi joke: “Iza 7zeret kam fi 7abb\u00e9 bi Id\u00e9 b3tik y\u00e9hon tnaynaton”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 12:51:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Beiruti uses idein, never dayyet. Must be a mountain thing (common in Zahl\u00e9) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 12:49:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK, looking at things that are > dual: Byout, wled, 3arabiyyet, as7ab, etc. are always plural (byoutak, wledak…) regardless if n=2 or >2 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 12:45:12+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) Wonder about Safaitic (@Safaitic) cc:@HsenAndil @PhDniX Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 12:41:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Plural (baydat) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 12:40:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY PUZZLE DUJOUR Hebrew, Phoenician, Akkadian,& Arabic have dual, not Aramaic-Syriac Hebr\/Phncian focus on body parts (2 eyes, legs, etc.), dual atrophies elsewhere, but Lebanese has dual ONLY OUTSIDE body parts: Ideik, 3yunak, shf\u00e9f\u00e9k, ejreik are pl. Friends, any idea? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 12:32:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb These languages (like Akkadian and Heb) focus on body parts, and have tended to atrophy outside. Ironically we only use it outside body parts: 3yunik not 3ayntaynik, shf\u00e9f\u00e9k, not shftaynik, ejreik not ejrtaynak. Worth a PHILO PUZZLE du jour Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 12:17:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Lebanese don’t often use dual: ideik, ejreik, etc. are plural not dual. “irfa3 yadaik => shil id\u00e9k”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 12:06:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I would settle for squid ink Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 12:02:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Actually in Heb Egypt is Mitzraim, meaning “the two Misr”, because they have 2 kingdoms. Phoenician had dual. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 11:59:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Today is a good day. Un buon auspicio. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 11:25:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Because you are private I cannot retweet. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 11:05:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1 month with 2 days STD Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 07:44:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You are good. Very good. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 01:21:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hihi. Only 1 length. Ciao. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-13 01:17:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Grazie! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 22:05:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes I want to formalize! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 17:56:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Masks change the ranking Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 17:52:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My first answer when a someone (particularly a journalist) tries to play rhetorical tricks\/compound questions around a statistical\/technical point they do not understand is: IGNORE. When they keep going, my second answer: Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 17:27:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb #localism Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 16:37:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Facile: le plus elegant, digne, et bien dans sa peau. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 16:30:29+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Je cherche mon arriere grand-pere. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 15:33:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Superdeadlifts! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 15:08:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb straps? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 15:06:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hitchens, fuckoff. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 14:57:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Chebychev’s inequality: for all r.v. with finite second moment: P(X> a)< V[x]\/a^2 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 14:23:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Relax: he’s not apparently a shill, just a troll I blocked. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 13:59:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 13:50:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This fellow is getting it. My paper is unpublished and the exact result is absent from the literature. But social media is verifying my central result. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 13:49:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is a FIRST ROUND. Both Ioannidis and myself wrote blind comments. I will know what he wrote along with the rest of the world. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 13:38:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You will find out. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 13:34:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The scientific debate with John Ioannidis will be posted this weekend. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 13:32:12+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) As a general rule: entropy based methods are much more adapted to information *by design*. Unlike with correlation & other BS, what you see with your naked eye will map to the metric! PS- Most geneticists use metrics they have NO clue about. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 12:33:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb PCA maps distort genetic distance betw populations: they separate Greeks from Turks (magnifying endogamy) & are exploited politically by rightwing nuts & EuroSupremacists Yet it’s IMPOSSIBLE to figure out Greek from W Turk w\/the naked eye Our correction: shows them much closer Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 12:27:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bureaucrats can’t get it in their head that masks & constraining superspreader locations are a much much cheaper, less disruptive, & more effective way to solve the problem. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 12:06:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bi Amioun, Feta mush 7allum\u00e9 ma3 l battikh. Byez3alo l 3alam. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 12:01:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Came FROM the book. FU money was not common before, only on Wall St. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 11:59:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am Byzantine. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 11:55:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You don’t want to give out all your secrets! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 11:34:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My 5 max rep drops after 2 months of cessation, but not the 1 max. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 11:27:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb La Llave Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 11:20:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You mean having a resentful halfwit accusing you of cherrypicking? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 11:18:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Oggi Questa matina Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 11:02:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Why this drop in DL? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 02:04:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Troppo intelettuale, no? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 00:47:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb F u money does not exist. Most people turn money obsessed once they have it. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 00:45:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A non-intellecktshual movie in Italian Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-12 00:30:12+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Amici, sto cercando un altro film italiano divertente (per migliorare il mio italiano). Voglio qualcosa di divertente, non intellettuale. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 23:33:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is really 0, below 10^-6. Works for Gaussian. I ran billions for Fat Tails and did numerical integration. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 23:27:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry, nothing personal. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 22:32:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb G, ask Ugo Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 19:41:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Final! Thanks for the help. Never use single point estimates for pandemics. [On fortune cookie science] Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 19:34:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Arabs had huge respect for the Rum (Greco-Romans, Romaics), solid but mild respect for the Fars (Pars Persians), denigration for the “Franj” and people to the South of them. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 18:32:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ana 12 lb. La7 yfta7 Spadaro Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 18:26:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The comparison is between thintails & fattails Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 17:55:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb TRUE WEALTH Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Absence of envy Muscle strength Frequent laughs No meals alone No gym classes Good digestive functions No meeting rooms Periodic surprises Foamy coffee Crusty bread Ability to nap Access to a hammock Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 17:50:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is common in both Arabic & Latin literature. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 17:25:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Possible but only for some parameters. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 16:59:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You’re an idiot Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 16:54:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “White” is not a genetic designation so much as it is about rank, power & connects to purity: white + somethingelse = somethingelse. Never chromocategorize. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 16:06:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The World Through a Magnifying Glass: The High-Pass Filter Hypothesis for Autism Spectrum Disorders Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 15:54:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The one on context Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 15:51:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Just bought your book Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 15:41:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Getting better at it Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 14:49:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Never use single point estimates for pandemics. [On fortune cookie science] (Corrected) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 14:47:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends, please comment\/help find mistakes Never use single point estimates for pandemics. https:\/\/youtube.com\/watch?v=_ZLrZc9NPVw&t=1s Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 14:33:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tutti. 8 \u00bd, Satiricon, Roma, Amarcord… Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 10:23:29+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Steroids Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-11 01:51:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Glad someone figured out all the tricks from the book. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 22:32:47+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sorry I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 21:59:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He turned 65 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 21:57:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thanks @zeynep for fighting for masks.👆 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 20:35:10+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Solo in italiano Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 18:19:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb LETTERATURA “DEL GIORNO” – Perch\u00e9 non scrivi pi\u00f9 libri? – Sono uscito troppo spesso la sera. Roma ti fa perdere molto tempo. [La ragione per cui io vivo in periferia o in campagna] Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 17:37:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This said, we NEED to work on a local language stripped of Nahda influences, and reestablish our deep Mediterranean culture –we are the most Easterners of the West, the most Westerners of the East. But let’s stay scholarly in the invocation of historical facts. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 17:12:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Actually, incorrect. The widespread use of Arabic fus7a in place of local dialects came with that “nahda” and the Maronite church was part of the process. 2: Syriac theology was introdiced by anti-Greek Nestorians during the Sassanian invasion. Fact: it is E. Aramaic not W. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 16:44:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We learned from you. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 16:22:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not the point. Without scholarship, rigor & critical mind one cannot have a historical discussion. Once a person violates that they cease to exist for me as debaters. When it comes to scholarly matters I have high standards and I am free to be that way. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 16:21:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is a false generalization to claim that because dentists are experts, THEREFORE macroeconomists must be experts. We have been fighting charlatans since the dawn of civilization. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 16:14:43+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No no no. We in the West are more authentic. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 15:26:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3) The Mamelouks spoke either a Turkic language or from the Caucasus (Georgian) for recruits. You are very very ignorant. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 15:25:29+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You really know absolutely NO history. 1) Aramaic came as lingua franca to the Levant WITH THE SWORD when the Persians used it as state language. It is not native to Canaan. 2) Occupation does not necessarily come with a language. The Romans brought Greek for instance. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 15:22:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The common enemy of all East Med brothers and sisters is ketchup on grape leaves. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 15:08:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thanks Marko! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 15:05:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is historical meandering. Arabic did not come with the sword, it was a later influence. And I see no reason why one foreign language should be more adapted to a Phoenician past than another. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 15:04:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Cycling, skying Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 14:46:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb These ARE superspreaders Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 14:22:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Before weightlifting Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 14:20:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Good point. Syriac is Eastern Aramaic, a lithurgical language. If anything it would be a mixture of Galilean Aramaic (Ma3lula) with old Canaanite substrates. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 14:09:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb WEAR A MASK The Salon results. Tutorial answer. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 13:54:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ignoring cross contagion, assuming one single exposure by client to single source (stylist) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 13:42:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR (Masks) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 11:33:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is NOT a data point. It is a huge statistical signal. Wear masks. And require that others do so. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 01:31:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is NOT a data point. It is a huge statistical signal. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 01:28:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb L’ histoire d’Alexandrie n’a RIEN A VOIR avec le sujet des savafides. Je bloque les intrusions d’habitude. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-10 00:08:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I hide hors sujet posts Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 23:26:43+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb C’est hors-sujet. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 23:26:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What does this have anything to do with anything? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 23:20:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb cc:@Mehdi_IR_DC Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 21:03:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To make things more complicated, Shah Ismail was the great-grandson of Emperor Alexios IV Komnenos. cc:@DrMichaelBonner Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 20:43:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Must be convex if close to minimum dose. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 20:30:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mnil dikken bi ATL Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 20:29:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Real science does not look scientific, surgeons can look more like butchers than actors playing surgeons, literature doesn’t look literary, projects don’t look like business plans, psychs are impostors & mathematics is precisely abt going to the simplest representation. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 20:28:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb B basal Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 19:40:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Precaution. Additional. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 19:37:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mexico? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 19:34:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Btkabbar amma shhm Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 19:16:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Just tried. Perfect! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 19:15:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Increased or decreased? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 18:42:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How much more caffeine than a simple expresso? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 15:42:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb None but 2 plane rides Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 13:45:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Being tested for COVID today. If clear, will partake. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 12:25:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Me too Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-09 12:07:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb David figured out what economists did not: all metrics linked to a fat-tailed variable (say variance) will me MUCH MORE fat tailed. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 23:52:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1)You need to add the fats, 8 calories per gram. No meat is 100% fat free. 2) Water noise + digestive variation in the body may drown the signal. 1\u00bd lbs a daily noise for 1 lb a week deficit! Wait > 10 days. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 19:00:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Actually Most powerful Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 14:56:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Helps a lot. But depends on psalm. Psalm 104 has “gadalta meod” meaning G(Lord) is greatest (sounds familiar no?) works best. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 14:48:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 14:24:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb More coffee is better? More water? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 13:08:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The very notion of “probability neglect” was shown to be BS in a paper made a chapter in my book (free PDF). Psychologists have NO CLUE about fat tails. https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Statistical-Consequences-Fat-Tails-Preasymptotics\/dp\/1544508050 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 11:56:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ugo, a problemo questa matina. When the coffee can is fresh, it foams. A few days later it stops foaming. Is it normal or maybe something else? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 11:54:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Actually this is the best time for both us and NZ. Your evening. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 02:18:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Matt, you must talk to Zack. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 02:08:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Simon, Meds are good at blocking idiots. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 02:06:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I know I followed him and am very impressed. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 01:22:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Are you Persian? Azeri? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 00:35:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The only person on @Delta who had no masks was a flight attendant on ATL-CMH DL 3014 on June 6, 2020. Return was OK. @Delta can you explain why you do not enforce the rule on your own staff? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 00:23:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Do you enforce mandatory masks? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 00:18:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I flew Delta today. Much more professional. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-08 00:12:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, Paphos in Cyprus. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 23:51:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Kif mbayyan wara l mask? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 23:50:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (They were liking our comments) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 23:05:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Looks like @Yachting_Greece may help us… Can you do Paphos-Mykonos? How long does it take? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 23:05:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 22:28:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Med is wayyyyy too small for us. Doing Athens-Mykonos in July because I don’t want to fly. Otherwise in Leb most of July. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 22:26:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tarapia tapioco come se fosse antani. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 21:13:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Same, Beirut, Athens, then ferry. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 21:09:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb La versione in italiano … e originale? voicevover? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 20:55:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fabrizio flaneur ha suggerito nel 2016 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 20:48:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, e stato sorpreso Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 20:48:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Si, Fabrizio! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 20:45:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Supercazzola in inglese: Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 20:38:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To Europe? From NY? If so, Me too we should study airlines protocols\/density. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 20:25:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Oxygen is sooo overrated. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 20:21:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You are missing the convexity of probability to viral exposure. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 19:59:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Where you going? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 19:47:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes, higher order effects fall off at p^2n Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 19:00:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb R0 ahd include the wffect that every incremental interaction has a lower infection rate because others might have infected them, no? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 18:59:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Then R0 –>number of people you encounter Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 18:22:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Great! If we were in the concave zone then R0 would be astronomical, no? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 18:21:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Already in the R0, no? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 18:17:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Must be convex. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 18:07:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (plane is almost empty, so 2 surgical) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 18:06:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You don’t need to know what it is. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 18:05:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb On Planes: I wear 2 masks plus goggles (plus N95 when there is a crowd). [Now] Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 18:02:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb That would make the drop even better because it becomes p p_1, p_1<\/p>\n

Permalink 2020-06-07 17:54:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Int\u00e9 l malfonito Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 17:52:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Does not change the story because they are both <=1. Please think before tweeting. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 17:49:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends, can someone check my logic Re: Masks? Any error? If so Masks could SOLVE the pandemic. I have been saying Masks are NECESSARY since Feb, didn’t realize they could be SUFFICIENT! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 17:47:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In fact not even secular. Locals decide. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 17:25:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb All across fractally. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 17:16:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Most likely same culture all across Canaan. Ignore political matters, this is the historian’s error. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 17:15:42+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mnil Trk\u00e9, @Marcellenassif ? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 16:58:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No nation has uniformity. Except for its elites. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 16:52:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Decentralized secular Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 16:40:35+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Which #RWRI did you attend, Jack? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 14:53:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Again, we mistook the lower bound for the total effect. This is just starting; we don’t know the track record. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 14:37:29+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Slippers are no no no. I even get my shoes shined before my Zoom lectures. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 13:52:12+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 6- SUMMARY: @Safaitic is looking inscriptions in various scripts to replicate period pronunciation, & grammar rather than literary sources. Busts the theory that local Semitic dialects descend from “Classical Arabic”, fabricated later by scholars. NEXT: Do same for Aramaic. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 13:48:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb His Gadness and I think alike in numerous things. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 13:37:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No no no no! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 13:37:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb SOUL IN THE GAME In Visconti’s movies, when a box was meant to have diamonds, he made sure to put real ones, even when the box remained openened. Never lecture\/meet on Zoom unless you dress top to bottom as in real life. And avoid fortune cookie science. #AntiBSVending Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 13:09:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A lot of BS in linguistics, as @Safaitic showed and discussed, especially in classifications. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 11:43:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In Kura we pronounce mwayy, in Beirut mayy Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 11:23:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mushroombrain, masks have no side effects (we’ve been using them for millennia). Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 10:45:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Las Vegas is a superspreader hub: crowds redistribute germs across the country, with maximal efficiency. Crowds in less connected cities keep germs largely local. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 03:12:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Quel ramdam Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 01:18:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Oui, plus qu’un chouaia. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-07 00:25:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Made @Decafquest sorry he did not fly from Beirut for his interview. You see how much I flew for 2 minutes? 300 miles per minute. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 23:42:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What the fuck do you mean “not a new notion”? I block idiots. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 23:38:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The PDF https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/43189829\/Al-Jallad._2020._The_Damascus_Psalm_Fragment_Middle_Arabic_and_the_Legacy_of_Old_\u1e24ig\u0101z\u012b_w._a_contribution_by_R._Vollandt And the hard copy https:\/\/www.isdistribution.com\/BookDetail.aspx?aId=140594 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 23:38:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb As a kid Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 23:26:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We are talking about ONE DOMAIN, $$$or professional, not individual safety. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 23:24:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb SYMPOSIUM ON SAFAITIC, 5 My conversation with Maestro Al-Jallad. I didn’t use no Zoom & #skininthegame paid proper respect by going 631 miles to meet him for a walk in the forest. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 23:21:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bingo. Hence the “stay” Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 23:04:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Just read an interview by his son… he did not like his father. That is not … Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 22:43:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Vous connaissez Joseph Balsamo? L’aventurier sicilien derriere le personnage n’est autre que Cagliostro Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 22:37:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A lot of both. Working hard will certainly make you prosperous. To be & stay a billionaire you need both skills and luck. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 21:43:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Shukran is not Lebanese. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 19:43:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Je ne lis plus rien en traduction– presque. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 19:42:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Pleiade Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 19:40:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Review Amzn https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/review\/ROV37CI7SRQ3N\/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rdp_perm?ie=UTF8&ASIN=0140449264 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 18:42:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He should have stopped earlier. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 17:19:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Pensano di aver “failed” Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 17:18:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Wait, wait. more versions to come. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 14:22:11+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes that’s why he invested there. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 13:57:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Beirut Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 13:53:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Which part of the “no matter how rich” you didn’t get? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 13:49:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fuck that. I write on my own terms. See references in book (referenced) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 13:45:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It snows in Lebanon, sometimes 80% of the country is covered. Only a small strip is coastal. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 13:43:47+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I a dit cela pour se donner des lettres de nobless car Celine etait considere comme litteraire. Il est de loin meilleur prosateur. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 13:39:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb would be nice if you could … follow the thread before responding Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 13:35:42+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, why don’t you fuckoff? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 13:26:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb EVIDENCE BASED SCIENCE IS NOT SCIENCE Clearer version, with examples. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 13:24:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I block idiots. Sorry nothing personal. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 13:10:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 13:09:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not quite. Some feel poorer. That’s my point. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 12:59:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, but same school. BTW de Botton was an Egyptian Jew; Alexandrian Greeks-Italians-GrecoSyrians-Jews, etc. are the most sophisticated people I have ever met. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 12:58:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb An old school European financier told me long time ago: “Those who feel they succeeded in finance write novels or talk mostly about art, culture, politics, or their hobbies; those who failed, no matter how rich, are still talking (or writing) only about finance & markets. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 12:54:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No mushroombrain I explain that naive falsificationism is incompatible with nondeterministic (statistical) approaches but asymmetry is CENTRAL in ranking evidence and classes of distribution. See reference (my stat book) before bullshitting. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 12:36:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb From airport, first (short) flight. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 11:24:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Voila, Adam Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 11:23:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4- I will be meeting Maestro Al-Jallad @safaitic for a walk this PM so please supply with questions. Will also supply a synthesis. P.S. The best French prose writer and one who writes the way people REALLY spoke (“argot”) before TV destroyed the local language: Fr\u00e9d\u00e9ric Dard. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 11:13:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes error it is p^2 not 1-p^2 and R_0 severely reduced yes BECAUSE it is linear to p^2 not p. But there is the convexity of p to viral load where the gravy lies Thanks. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 11:07:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes, thanks; did you see the part before in convexity of p to viral load? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 10:50:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ghassan in my cousin 4th degree remote. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-06 00:10:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Non capish at all. Even less. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 21:06:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How did you guess? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 21:05:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Frankopan has culture. He knows what to look for. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 21:05:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Replace policy with risk management\/decision making. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 20:56:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Do you have proofs it doesn’t save lives? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 20:21:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You’re confabulating. I am not saying that. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 19:40:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Non capish Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 19:39:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I don’t know yet @PZalloua Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 19:24:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb So fucking what? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 19:15:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You will witness that my part of Lebanon is vastly more historical, more Mediterranean, richer in history that Pierre’s, 14 miles away. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 19:00:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Missing page Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 18:23:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb EVIDENCE BASED SCIENCE IS NOT SCIENCE Paper in Progress, for comments. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 18:20:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I learned that when you open the can, you get foam very easily. Then it stops 3-5 days later. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 18:18:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/nntbio.htm Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 18:04:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Reversals of signs are not statistically important; it is the magnitude of the variations. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 16:24:42+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Well known for time series. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 16:09:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Before blocking idiots. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 16:08:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Asynchronous correlations Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 16:06:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb People may like a word –aesthetics Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 14:39:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 14:38:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb hahaha! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 14:18:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb James, block idiots. Nobody has NITPICKED numbers except media. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 13:55:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3- He got it. Bottom up linguistics vs top down. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 13:03:33+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2- Either, in 8th C Levantine Greek (and possibly Romaic “Rum” Greek), \u03b2 was pronounced “b” or Arabic \u0628 was pronounced “v”. Unless it was a convention that switched “v” to “\u0641”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 12:29:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb PHILOLOGY SYMPOSIUM AR THIS The genius of Maestro Al-Jallad @Safaitic: he gets that if Future pple want to know how today’s people speak, shd not look at academic books but FB conversations & foreign script MY Q. 1-Discovering “Rab” is lunar not solar (\u03b5\u03bb \u03c1\u03b1\u03b2) not \u03b5\u03c1\u03c1\u03b1\u03b2. True? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 12:25:42+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb All I have to say is that I block idiots. Nothing personal. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 12:14:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My limit is 30 seconds but with Maestro Al Jallad different story Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 12:10:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If so, write to the firms where you want to invest discuss with them. Twitter is not the place. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 02:59:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am blocked by both these idiots. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 02:11:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I assume that people share data with regulators, investors, and potential investors under mega qualification rules. Not with Twitter trolls. Gabish? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 02:06:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You can never convince BS vendors. But you may get some entertainment getting them angry. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 01:40:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ma in francese… volio imperare la lingua di Dante e Berlusconi Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 01:31:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hilarious! 2 BS vendors I’ve busted, @lopezdeprado & Phil🐁@Ptetlock (unrelated fields) became friends, joined forces &… are both losing it. Big time. They are now at the stage where they are now frantically trying to throw the kitchen sink at yours truly. https:\/\/twitter.com\/Tyler_Rongione\/status\/1268694621741293568 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-05 01:18:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Victory! Corporations cannot ALWAYS buy science. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 18:51:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Even their account closing page is messed up. Does not respond Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 18:48:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is not set-up for people who want to use it for transactions? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 18:46:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Too late. Closing account. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 18:30:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I closed the @coinbase account (opened a few months ago). Like Must, they answered me (blue check) when I complained but ignore the regular person. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 18:22:46+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Do they charge for wiring from Bank? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 18:18:15+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes my reaction was because I am switching to another provider. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 18:14:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb RWRI is 40 h Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 18:02:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I never offend His Gadness. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 17:56:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb @coinbase What is going on with you? Why don’t you respond to errors? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 17:50:55+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He is exempt. Talking about the probability D\/T literature. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 17:38:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Read the book . Explains ranking Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 16:46:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb More formal Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 16:25:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is actually #RWRI Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 14:45:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb tazzine Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 14:28:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ma questa tazzina non e Lindy. In plastica non vetro. Sono a la ricerca de tassine di vetro. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 14:27:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bronze age Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 14:12:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hayda l lower bound. Ana j\u00e9y\u00e9 heik heik. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 13:44:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb La prossima volta non dimenticarmi. Quatordici persone ma non io? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 13:35:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You forgot your devoted friend! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 13:30:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 13:26:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 13:12:42+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends, for discussion To expand with @yaneerbaryam and @DrCirillo cc:@spyrosmakrid Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 13:10:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Both Balkan and North Levantine cultures come from Anatolia (dress, music, dance, food even outside Med areas) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 13:09:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Anatolia Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 13:08:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 13:07:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not in printable form. All uni and technical presses ban the availability of final PDF in a way that allows the physical replication of the book. Which is why I elected to start my own publishing firm. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 11:53:03+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There should be another version for that size. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 11:44:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Unfair I lost weight since! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 11:43:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Which discussion? With whom? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 11:29:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Should be 6 by 9 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 11:28:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Everything East-Med (includes S. Italy) comes originally from the triangle Zagros-Anatolia-Southern Caucasus (Georgia-Armenia-Iran-Central Anatolia). Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 11:21:43+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Iki-bir Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 11:18:36+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I guess I am one of the first authors who helps people to legally pirat their books. The US version starts to ship later this month. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 11:16:42+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How much did it cost to print in BRL? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 11:15:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Some “besh” is Turkish, no? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 11:08:01+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb La traduzione in inglese e ancora piu … Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 11:06:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In Amici miei? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 10:44:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Supercazzola (scappellamento a destra) Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-04 10:38:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb W Petro Trad Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 22:35:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Choukrane is not in Lebanese. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 22:12:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb But the fact that it has an Arabic name doesn’t contradict the other fact that there is practically no Arab ancestry in the Peninsula. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 20:19:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Arabic, the “al” is not present in Phoenician. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 20:12:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Silvi my ethics ban me from front running and hoarding. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 19:20:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bru7 knt kill shahr jm3a. Halla2 nater la yfta7o l matarat. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 19:20:16+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Msh shaghlt\u00e9. Ma b7bb l ejtim\u00e93at! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 19:11:47+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Great! Another mistake debunked. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 19:10:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ha! Natrik\u00e9k! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 19:09:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Generalizing the particular Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 19:07:37+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Lal 7all bil Lebn\u00e9n baddkon ra2is wizara sinn\u00e9 immo maruniyy\u00e9 marto shi3iyy\u00e9 min emm armaniyy\u00e9… …Ye3n\u00e9 wa7ad rum ortodox. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 19:03:44+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I ordered La LLave. Will see. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 18:54:17+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK, ordered @tabacco_y_rhum Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 18:25:57+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends, could this grinder work? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 18:16:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb qareb means gets closer. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 16:46:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3rd moment must be finite Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 15:29:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “The word” not the words. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 15:14:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No. BE is not for fat tails Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 15:11:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bl lebnene natra mnatra! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 15:04:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Good job. Many “statisticians” have no clue about The Law of Large Number LLN …subject of my Technical Inverto. Some know what happens when n=1 or n= infinity, not for n= 34 or 671… Cancels much of the tools in social science. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 14:58:47+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mais avec la paix avec le Liban bien sur! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 13:32:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ha shana aba… Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 13:24:30+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb bf\u00e9r\u00e9gh l sabr Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 12:30:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Un grand honneur! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-03 12:28:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes al gharb = “the West” Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 22:59:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sorry missed Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 22:54:52+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You forgot the “if”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 22:41:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 8:30 am in the US? I am curious Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 18:31:22+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Efkharisto poly! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 18:18:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4) The older generation must not justify its “utility” to the younger one. They earned it. CIVILIZATION: Athenians granted old mules who worked hard a privileged and “honorable” retirement, free to roam with a pension at public expense. That’s the reverse of Geronticide. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 18:03:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb RWRI 14, Aug 10-21, online #RWRI can’t teach you to make money (nobody really can). But we can show you how to survive\/not blowup. #RWRI won’t teach you probability (you don’t really need it). But we can teach you #BSbusting of Levels 0-3. #BSbusting! http:\/\/realworldrisk.com Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 17:31:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not the point! They have earned their retirement and they are allowed to not be despoiled of their dividend. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 16:58:18+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3)Do not disrupt the Silver rule: don’t treat the older generation the way you don’t want the next generation to treat you. Civilization and group moral rectitude started with the Silver and Golden rules. Geronticide is morally repulsive; only accepted in nouveau-riche societies. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 16:21:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) Societies types: one for which a life is a life, another where life is some actuarial number. Watch the ravages economics has done to modern societies: comes with scientism, pseudoutilitarianism, pseudocost-benefit analysis & … moral decay. As in Dostoyevski’s Crocodile. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 16:04:47+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is spurious. If someone kills someone else BY NEGLIGENCE, should the penalty be age dependent? It is permissible to kill the old? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 14:11:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb They statistically *would* can also apply to murder. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 14:10:08+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb LOGICAL INCONSISTENCY DU JOUR Someone said “if an old person dies of COVID, it’s not a big deal because they could have died of someone else”. To be consistent, you must accept: “If a someone kills an old person, it’s not a big deal because they could have died of someone else”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 13:55:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Turkish sofra Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 13:04:51+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It would be \u0637\u0648\u064a\u0644\u0647 not \u0637\u0627\u0648\u0644\u0647 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 12:50:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Imbecile; the point is because Rabbis were ALSO doctors. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 12:38:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not Arabic Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 12:32:19+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The French colloquial uses for country “bled” from the Arabic \u0628\u0644\u062f , “cleb” or “clebard” for dog from \u0643\u0644\u0628, but the official language bowdlerises such influences. New DuJour’: “To whistle” in Lebanese “sawfar” is from the Byzantine Greek \u03c3\u03c6\u03c5\u03c1\u03af\u03b6\u03c9 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 12:18:49+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We call this trbayz\u00e9! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 11:59:20+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Trk\u00e9 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 11:53:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There were no planes… But we used it for planes Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 11:48:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb PHILOLOGICAL IRONIES DU JOUR +Spaniards use the Arabic word for table, mesa, \u0645\u0627\u0626\u062f\u0629, while Lebanese use “tawl\u00e9” from Italian tavola & Egyptians use “tarabeza” frm Greek \u03a4\u03c1\u03b1\u03c0\u03ad\u03b6\u03b9. + French (slang) use the Arabic “toubib” \u0637\u0628\u064a\u0628, when Lebanese use “hakim” linked to Hebrew “rabbi” \u05d7\u05db\u05dd Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 11:47:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Used to say n\u00e9wlun, from the Greek nevlon. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 11:39:32+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Per l’ultima volta? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 11:35:12+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Our paper explained on @physorg_com Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 11:08:12+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Racism is the use of the law of large numbers (and scaling) in the opposite direction, by attributing presumed population traits to single individuals. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 10:49:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The fellow @octonion knows his stuff (probabilist, certified nonBSVendor). Similar to data from Northern Italia (adjusted for obesity, etc.). That is almost a lower bound as we can have fatalities from people infected 2 months ago. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-02 00:17:54+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Lamb? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 22:35:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb SECOND PRINTING now freely available PDF Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 22:35:31+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Any idea about the Indo-European or other origin? Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 22:31:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am very imperfect. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 17:42:00+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (A boring dispute w\/academics; ignore) Thanks @HietanenPaavo for sending this. Turns out @PTetlock🐁 is lying, claiming I made a private dispute public. There was NO private dispute; he just started a public harrassment campaign (“the 🐁”). Paavo linked https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=from%3A%40nntaleb%20%40ptetlock%20until%3A2016-12-31%20since%3A2000-12-31&src=typed_query&f=live Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 16:16:23+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Shahada is the same as the Syriac “7ad Aloho” Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 16:06:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No this is the study used to discredit Raoult Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 14:09:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A reminder that 1) Science is hard, 2) Science depends on statistical inference, itself depends on probability. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 14:04:34+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thanks! Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 13:49:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Philologist friends, Is the root for \u05de\u05d5\u05e4\u05ea in anyway linked to muppistu in Akkadian? If not, what is the Semitic (or non-Semitic) root? https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1265823241240825863 Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 13:13:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Wrong etymlgy. Malachite = green Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 02:30:24+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My full time professional specialty is squid ink. The rest are hobbies. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 02:24:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Independence means never supporting a person, only select policies. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 01:16:09+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I would have blocked this imbecile, Joan (mistook him for a scientist). But it would eliminate the discussion. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 00:13:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I publicly said I would never vote for Trump, on CNBC. This is a smear campaign. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 00:06:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb That’s Germany. L’Italie commence a Naples. Permalink<\/a> 2020-06-01 00:03:29+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mon ami, we were fighting with them ALL ALONG (@yaneerbaryam , @DrCirillo) because they could not handle absence of evidence which is stronger under fat tails. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 23:58:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 130\/70 Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 22:55:07+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Imbecile, no. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 22:53:14+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He does not get that we said that EPIDEMIOLOGY is useful as a field of study but they proved unable to deal with policy recommendations when it comes to tail risk. It is like being a doctor and missing most of medicine. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 21:40:10+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Un ancetre commun aux Menasce et Cattaui? Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 20:50:50+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tripple imbecile: I am offering PRECISE solutions. It is just that charlatans don’t like them. https:\/\/twitter.com\/GavinChait\/status\/1267182088396177414 Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 20:45:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ren\u00e9 Cattaui est aussi ton ancetre? Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 20:38:38+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Je vais donc passer par Turin! Je serai a Milan en novembre. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 20:28:10+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb L’ accento e meta francese meta ebraico Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 20:27:04+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hai vissuto a Roma, no? Genitori diplomatici? Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 20:21:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tu connais l’expression! Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 20:20:25+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ron, je parlais de ton grand-oncle Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 19:54:39+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Batroun? Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 19:38:29+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/ Things that went intellectually bankrupt over the pandemics & will hardly recover: Epidemiology Fortune cookie (positive) “evidence” base science Bureaucratic topdown structures: WHO, CDC, UK Group Rent seeking academia can no longer be financed. Universities will crumble. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 18:59:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I mio turno Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 18:43:58+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How you did in this pandemic, as a country, a village, a business, a group, or an individual, whether emotionally, economically, or morally, is an indication of how robust you are and how fit you will be for the next decades. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 18:30:45+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Aretas is Hareth Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 18:12:13+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Lying down it’s always lower Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 16:34:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I will take them back; guaranteed Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 16:34:05+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Liguria? Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 13:40:26+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Benefits of Quarantine: No restaurants: no seed oil, no bad grains. + More time to bust BS Vendors, read novels. + Weight loss 12lbs, resting heart rate 49 BPM. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 13:32:53+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Pope Francis : Stop the destruction of a historical and cultural site in Nahr El-Kalb, Lebanon! – Sign the Petition! http:\/\/chng.it\/wyBSz2Nb via @Change Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 13:28:59+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It also depends on the music, as you will see. It is very sensitive. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 13:13:41+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb That’s how it is spelled in Atlanta, GA. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 13:00:27+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Added to the book a comment on “evidence based” scientism https:\/\/www.researchers.one\/article\/2020-01-21 Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 12:34:21+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You need music in the background. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 12:12:40+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Kept getting injuries from cleans. Do them with lower weights. I only get injured when I listen to advice, or watch a video. I never get injured when I follow my intuition or take tiny “nudges”. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 10:28:02+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Look at the reactions to the warnings in Jan. We had a barrage of idiots many of whom deleted their tweets. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 00:44:48+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hoy! Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 00:39:56+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You’re an honest person, Jaffer. Argumentative, but honest. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 00:19:06+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You are talking to an imbecile, Ofer. Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 00:12:28+00:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Whivh one? Permalink<\/a> 2020-05-31 00:11:55+00:00<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Apologies, just going to put this here. Catching up a month and a half of NNT’s tweets.\u00a0 I’ve heard from a few people who are locked out of Twitter at work that this has been useful. Back in the day when I started saving NNT’s tweets he was known to delete them at random and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9133","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9133","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9133"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9133\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9135,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9133\/revisions\/9135"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9133"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9133"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9133"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}