{"id":9125,"date":"2020-05-15T00:35:25","date_gmt":"2020-05-15T07:35:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=9125"},"modified":"2020-05-15T00:35:25","modified_gmt":"2020-05-15T07:35:25","slug":"localism-libertarians-adaptation-justin-amash-reason-marshmallowbrained-psychopaths-ioannidis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2020\/05\/localism-libertarians-adaptation-justin-amash-reason-marshmallowbrained-psychopaths-ioannidis\/","title":{"rendered":"LOCALISM, &#8220;libertarians&#8221;, ADAPTATION, Justin Amash, @Reason, Marshmallowbrained Psychopaths, Ioannidis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Never use single point estimates for pandemics\" width=\"625\" height=\"352\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/_ZLrZc9NPVw?rel=0&#038;showinfo=0\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=_ZLrZc9NPVw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Never use single point estimates for pandemics<\/a> 5\/13\/20<\/p>\n<p>@Monsantobuster Prof Taleb @PTetlock does not know what a probability distribution means.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/YAXNpVst4s\"> pic.twitter.com\/YAXNpVst4s<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/Monsantobuster\/status\/1260950739335208960\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:10 AM &#8211; 14 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@bohemianGunjan &#8220;Panic is good only if you panic early, and as a trader the first thing you learn is to panic early&#8221;. &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb. @nntaleb Amazing talk, thanks @MFBALA, @AyeshaFaridi1<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/oVkA9hj0SL\"> pic.twitter.com\/oVkA9hj0SL<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/bohemianGunjan\/status\/1260944428555841536\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:45 AM &#8211; 14 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Removed the black board <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MFBALA\/status\/1260861161354002433\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/MFBALA\/status\/1260861161354002433 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260891949369831427\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:17 AM &#8211; 14 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Ready in front of my blackboard ! #Voyage2020 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pvsubramanyam\/status\/1260875407441760257\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/pvsubramanyam\/status\/1260875407441760257 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260889074459648000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:05 AM &#8211; 14 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/digvijoy_c\/status\/1260719597126324228?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/digvijoy_c\/status\/1260719597126324228?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260728164818530307\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:26 PM &#8211; 13 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@mikeandallie Sharing ideas from @nntaleb &#8216;s &#8220;never use point estimates for pandemics&#8221; video with kids <a href=\"https:\/\/mikesmathpage.wordpress.com\/2020\/05\/13\/sharing-ideas-from-nassim-talebs-point-estimate-for-pandemics-video-with-kids\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/mikesmathpage.wordpress.com\/2020\/05\/13\/sharing-ideas-from-nassim-talebs-point-estimate-for-pandemics-video-with-kids\/ <\/a>\u00a0 #math #mathchat <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/mikeandallie\/status\/1260708444505542659\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:08 PM &#8211; 13 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb What I mean by LOCALISM. Linked to subsidiarity: you leave to HIGHER collective structures things that cannot be done by the individual, under constraints of liberty. We need govt where we can&#8217;t sue (systemic harm: viruses, GMOs, invasions). Govt is the systemic risk mgr. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260669986177265664\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:35 PM &#8211; 13 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Never use single point estimates for pandemics <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/_ZLrZc9NPVw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/youtu.be\/_ZLrZc9NPVw <\/a>\u00a0 via @YouTube <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260667933321240579\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:27 PM &#8211; 13 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Voila <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=_ZLrZc9NPVw&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=_ZLrZc9NPVw&amp;feature=youtu.be <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260617576675229697\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:07 AM &#8211; 13 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb For pandemics if the average exists, about ~95-99.9% of observations would fall BELOW the average. Aside from the slow workings of the law of large numbers. Should I explain this in a short video? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260546524548927490\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:24 AM &#8211; 13 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo forthcoming in Nature Physics later this week explaining the point, @mattwridley. Tail exponent &lt;1, even possibly &lt;\u00bd means NEVER issue a single point forecast and NEVER present an average.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/51GNm1cr5t\"> pic.twitter.com\/51GNm1cr5t<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260544412804882432\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:16 AM &#8211; 13 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb ERRORS 101 Never produce a point estimate for risk management, esp. in a fat tailed domain, rather show statistical properties. Never judge a risk management stance from point forecasts. These errors are promoted by the Idiot of Pennsylvania, Phil the rat Tetlock @PTetlock. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mattwridley\/status\/1259898818017058818\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/mattwridley\/status\/1259898818017058818 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260537570724904961\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:49 AM &#8211; 13 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Why you should NEVER have awards in academia. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GowagsKyle\/status\/1260530857821028352\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/GowagsKyle\/status\/1260530857821028352 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260532620154351623\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:29 AM &#8211; 13 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb No, @RaminNasibov that&#8217;s not Umberto Eco&#8217;s library. His library is below. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RaminNasibov\/status\/1260142681495306240\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/RaminNasibov\/status\/1260142681495306240 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/bWbltHFv9S&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/bWbltHFv9S <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260530252331331589\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:20 AM &#8211; 13 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Post dinner, lockdown.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/xRLGE5CFe9\"> pic.twitter.com\/xRLGE5CFe9<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260378912074366979\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:18 PM &#8211; 12 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Note the response to masks. Some people are &#8220;libertarians&#8221; because of a mental defect, a combination of severe inhibition of logical faculties coupled with sociopathic behaviors. Others like @justinamash are genuinely multiscale localists.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/IMQE2e6yiO\"> pic.twitter.com\/IMQE2e6yiO<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260378177827942401\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:15 PM &#8211; 12 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Point isn&#8217;t even reopening. It is the preponderance of people without masks in stores! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1260372488955060225\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1260372488955060225 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260376555370549258\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:09 PM &#8211; 12 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Here is my adaptation: work with a *real* blackboard on zoom. Just finished a discussion with @fotpetr and @spyrosmakrid <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/fotpetr\/status\/1260229030873268227?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/fotpetr\/status\/1260229030873268227?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260232230250708997\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:35 AM &#8211; 12 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Lebanon fared exceedinly well, &lt;10 fatalities per million compared to &gt; 500 per million in hot spots (&amp; growing). <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/UntergrundmannG\/status\/1260125696417918977\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/UntergrundmannG\/status\/1260125696417918977 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1260144680093782016\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:47 AM &#8211; 12 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 3) Personal resets: I have been eating in restaurants 10 times a week&#8230; Hard to adapt to new environment because home eating can ~ food quality w\/best ingredients but will never replace the exhilaration of an ambient crowd&#8230; Maybe they will reset &amp; start garden restaurants! <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1259982011613286403\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:01 PM &#8211; 11 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2) Many small professional resets: learned to lecture on Zoom. Learned to set up a blackboard behind me for illustrations. Of course could start a business along these lines. Universities are going out of business &amp; there is something to grab as they are too incompetent to adapt. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1259980644937084929\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:56 PM &#8211; 11 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb ADAPTATION Do a total reset professionally, economically, personally. Treat this thing as if it were here to stay &amp; make sure you can do with it. If it goes away, it will be a bonus but remember that the shadow of the following one will be progressively built into the system. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1259972658889973760\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:24 PM &#8211; 11 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb And this for the sooooooo misunderstood law of large numbers <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DavidSalazarVir\/status\/1253408590833963008?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/DavidSalazarVir\/status\/1253408590833963008?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1259912585274707978\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:25 AM &#8211; 11 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This is excellent. He is simulating from my book STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS. Advice to @DavidSalazarVir : increase n for large samples, to see the Mediocristan case go flat like a dinner table or the intellect of an economist. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DavidSalazarVir\/status\/1254843961153187842\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/DavidSalazarVir\/status\/1254843961153187842 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1259909910541881347\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:15 AM &#8211; 11 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@DellAnnaLuca Some numbers to back what @nntaleb has been saying for months: the economy tanking is in large measure a bottom-up process. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/clairlemon\/status\/1259435094764183552\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/clairlemon\/status\/1259435094764183552 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/DellAnnaLuca\/status\/1259695506076266503\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:03 PM &#8211; 10 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb There we go, an intelligent version of libertarianism! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/justinamash\/status\/1259561994547605505\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/justinamash\/status\/1259561994547605505 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1259574019961040903\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:00 PM &#8211; 10 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@BuddyCA64525731 Wonderful @nntaleb venn diagram on the right way to formalize and teach probability and risk. @macroarb @zoeharcombe <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/zoeharcombe\/status\/1259447505747619840\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/zoeharcombe\/status\/1259447505747619840 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/TJrUKCNTZF&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/TJrUKCNTZF <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/BuddyCA64525731\/status\/1259512034959515652\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:54 AM &#8211; 10 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@DrSamPappas \u201cInflammation is the most frequent affection and the one showing the most number of varieties ..\u201c Galen of Pergamon \u2066@_Tom_Pappas\u2069 \u2066@amyriolo\u2069 @nntaleb\u2069 Ancient Mediterranean wisdom already knew about #CytokineStorm <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/DrSamPappas\/status\/1259507623646429184\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:36 AM &#8211; 10 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Seond hint. I guess we&#8217;re done.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/2i4mwWp0AG\"> pic.twitter.com\/2i4mwWp0AG<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1259500099752910850\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:06 AM &#8211; 10 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb If you want to drive a fool to insolvency, lend her or him some money. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1259494578543120391\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:44 AM &#8211; 10 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@MarcosCarreira Before affirming that children are &#8220;immune&#8221; and can be exposed to risky environments, remember that: (1) Many problems will not be diagnosed due to the avoidance of hospitals, doctors (2) Saying something never happens can be disproved by a single example (see attached) @nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255941572908244996\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255941572908244996 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/waXtJl6Igm&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/waXtJl6Igm <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/MarcosCarreira\/status\/1259472654685351937\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:17 AM &#8211; 10 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Bottom up vs top down. The photo is BEFORE my weight loss. Very unfair. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/zoeharcombe\/status\/1259447505747619840\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/zoeharcombe\/status\/1259447505747619840 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1259458372769918976\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:20 AM &#8211; 10 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb \u05e0\u05d5\u05ea\u05e0\u05d4 \u05d5\u05d0\u05d9\u05e0\u05d5 \u05d9\u05d5\u05d3\u05e2 \u05dc\u05de\u05d9 \u05e0\u05d5\u05ea\u05e0\u05d4, \u05e0\u05d5\u05d8\u05dc\u05d4 \u05d5\u05d0\u05d9\u05e0\u05d5 \u05d9\u05d5\u05d3\u05e2 \u05de\u05de\u05d9 \u05e0\u05d5\u05d8\u05dc\u05d4. \u05e0\u05d5\u05ea\u05e0\u05d4 \u05d5\u05d0\u05d9\u05e0\u05d5 \u05d9\u05d5\u05d3\u05e2 \u05dc\u05de\u05d9 \u05e0\u05d5\u05ea\u05e0\u05d4, \u05dc\u05d0\u05e4\u05d5\u05e7\u05d9 \u05de\u05d3\u05de\u05e8 \u05e2\u05d5\u05e7\u05d1\u05d0&#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ofer_rubin\/status\/1259255171986665473?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ofer_rubin\/status\/1259255171986665473?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1259275442156122117\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:13 PM &#8211; 9 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Make your failings public; keep your virtues secret. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1259212594231066632\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:04 PM &#8211; 9 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Libertarianism reposes on the nonagression principle, which COMMANDS mask-wearing under the SILVER RULE. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1259144248731017218\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:32 AM &#8211; 9 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb If you are a nonimbecile Libertarian, or localist, you want collective action to arise bottom up in a decentralized way. This is EXACTLY what is happening! Responses are largely local abt everywhere. #NonImbecileLibertarianism #NonPsychopathicLibertarianism #Localism <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258931279317405696\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258931279317405696 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1259142699459977217\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:26 AM &#8211; 9 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I am in Atlanta where restrts have been ALLOWED to open. The ones I know are closed. Nice to blame local governments. It was bottom up. Clearly, most of these &#8220;libertarians&#8221; are not just geronticidal sociopaths but defective in reasoning &amp; empirical awareness. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258939681292550148\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:59 PM &#8211; 8 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Indeed, a faux debate <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Covid19Digest\/status\/1258936747699965953?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Covid19Digest\/status\/1258936747699965953?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258938064606560260\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:53 PM &#8211; 8 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Lockdowns (largely)followed individual behavior rather than the reverse. Except for teenagers who carry a tiny economic role. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/clairlemon\/status\/1258897844771028993\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/clairlemon\/status\/1258897844771028993 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258931279317405696\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:26 PM &#8211; 8 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@yaneerbaryam Why is the Batshit Crazy idea of Herd Immunity still with us? 1\/4 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1258868430247211021\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:16 PM &#8211; 8 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The other problem is attending a lecture on Zoom tires you much more than one in the physical world. You need to focus with some intensity all the time, can&#8217;t get cues otherwise. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258854226995879937\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:20 PM &#8211; 8 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Having been separated from my library &amp; reading on an Ipad, it is w\/yuuge relief (after 463 pages) to finally get the real thing! Digital is useful for some things, but one remembers much, much better what one touches, views in 3D, and smells. It&#8217;s like exiting a 2D prison.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/sKxGxOJy2E\"> pic.twitter.com\/sKxGxOJy2E<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258853603554574336\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:17 PM &#8211; 8 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Publishers are indeed confused by my approach. Never separate words from aesthetics. This format is Lindy <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1208317781634113536?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1208317781634113536?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NachoOliveras\/status\/1258832399409876993\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/NachoOliveras\/status\/1258832399409876993 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/T8KE4d5VeB&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/T8KE4d5VeB <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258834733976498177\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:02 PM &#8211; 8 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Hint<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/otSFzfIUPr\"> pic.twitter.com\/otSFzfIUPr<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258806084908863499\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:08 AM &#8211; 8 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb You know when it starts. Never when it ends&#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JamesMarsh79\/status\/1258775700829601792\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/JamesMarsh79\/status\/1258775700829601792 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258776367984005121\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:10 AM &#8211; 8 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Something to start the weekend with. Courtesy Dan Sitaru.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/PGLvK4TGTK\"> pic.twitter.com\/PGLvK4TGTK<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258773122460901378\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:57 AM &#8211; 8 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb &#8220;HEAVY BOX&#8221; : weighs 9 lbs. I wonder if I can add a volume without messing up the physical package. [PS &#8211;enjoy the Prosecco @ozwegian] <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ozwegian\/status\/1258473140084248577\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ozwegian\/status\/1258473140084248577 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258519517501640705\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:10 PM &#8211; 7 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@normonics Yaneer has been tireless in tackling this pandemic. This makes me sick to my stomach <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1258474980129546242\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1258474980129546242 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1258476905986211840\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:20 PM &#8211; 7 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Never, never complain about your enemies. Only losers complain. Drive them to complain about you. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258472159246274560\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:01 PM &#8211; 7 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Bi Masr byektbo bil Masr\u00e9. Ma 3ndon 3e2d\u00e9! 7atta fi Wikipedia bil Masr\u00e9! <a href=\"https:\/\/arz.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/arz.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/ <\/a>\u00a0\u0627\u0644\u0635\u0641\u062d\u0647_\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0626\u064a\u0633\u064a\u0647 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ghonim\/status\/1225534329679380481\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ghonim\/status\/1225534329679380481 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258464504339410946\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:31 AM &#8211; 7 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Excellent question! Just as correlation\/covariance do not properly measure informational distance, standard deviation\/variance do not measure the degree of uncertainty. More effective is entropy and conditional entropy for downside. &#8212;- I ANSWER ALL LEGIT TECHNICAL QUESTIONS <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/bitpharma\/status\/1258413098588934146\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/bitpharma\/status\/1258413098588934146 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/VtquYba4Vr&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/VtquYba4Vr <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258426560010428416\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:00 AM &#8211; 7 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb South of Avignon is the Med France but Provencal is closer to Italian <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258401545370185728\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:21 AM &#8211; 7 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The French are Germanics who think they are Mediterraneans and speak a Latin language with a German accent. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258400306536296450\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:16 AM &#8211; 7 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Solid statistical inference lies in destroying BS with a single but powerful data point. Disconfirmatory empiricism. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/joe_shipman\/status\/1258251049971875840?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/joe_shipman\/status\/1258251049971875840?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258340092038520837\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:17 AM &#8211; 7 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I get v. angry when I read crap by &#8220;Johny Evidence&#8221; Ioannidis who still doesn&#8217;t get multiplicative processes w\/\u03b1&lt;1 need to be cut in the egg. This is the city where I&#8217;ve resided ~2\/3 of my life. So far 75% of the people dying are dying of COVID, not counting future morbidity.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/ng5cxGEBlE\"> pic.twitter.com\/ng5cxGEBlE<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258169947240435719\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:01 PM &#8211; 6 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Traduttore Traditore! Dumas in Cte de Montecristo: &#8220;condemned for 5 m to Italian cuisine, one of the WORST in the world&#8221;. While waiting for the mailed hard copy, was trying to read it online in Italian: &#8220;una delle piu MEDIOCRI cucine del mondo&#8221; #Cheating but Italian &gt;&gt; French <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258160375150804993\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:23 PM &#8211; 6 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@trishankkarthik This is why we need more people to get the #RWRI mindset @nntaleb @financequant U.S. military busy spending trillions on offense rather than than worrying about practical risks like this virus that will easily throw them off in the homeland <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/trishankkarthik\/status\/1258158470366363651\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:15 PM &#8211; 6 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Resist The Wuhan Lab &amp; other theories Just as victims of paranoia can find a narrative that impeccably matches all facts, people collectively fall prey to these shared delusions. &#8220;Intelligent&#8221; people can be more vulnerable Remember the Iraq WMDs or IYIs on Trump #TheBlackSwan<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/OZ3ALN6AnV\"> pic.twitter.com\/OZ3ALN6AnV<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258131412189941760\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:27 PM &#8211; 6 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Mr Meng, It&#8217;s the naive hedging strategies that lead to underfunding. Not the effective ones. Just a quick reminder. (Mr Meng is Chief Investment Officer of CalPERS) <a href=\"https:\/\/californiaglobe.com\/section-2\/coronavirus-side-effect-calpers-drops-to-60-funded\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/californiaglobe.com\/section-2\/coronavirus-side-effect-calpers-drops-to-60-funded\/ <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258129381882580992\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:19 PM &#8211; 6 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 1) I don&#8217;t write for magazines (except short comment every 5-7 years) 2) @Reason is penetrated by exMonsanto shills\/corporate interests 3) Intellectual caliber is low, dominated by sub-naive empiricists 4) I have many more readers than @Reason Ideas here: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Principia_Politica\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Principia_Politica <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JustHereToShare\/status\/1258102534465413120\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/JustHereToShare\/status\/1258102534465413120 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258112791799566337\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:13 PM &#8211; 6 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@viziandrei \u201cContrary to orthodox belief, success is not being on top of a hierarchy. Success is standing outside all hierarchies.\u201d \u2014 @nntaleb<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/2NTpoCTMPO\"> pic.twitter.com\/2NTpoCTMPO<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/viziandrei\/status\/1258093737781100545\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:58 AM &#8211; 6 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb We need to figure out which &#8220;libertarians&#8221; are really localists without the right language, and get them on board. #localism <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1258042758780125184\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1258042758780125184 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258067923404455939\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:15 AM &#8211; 6 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb So far (stopping because there is no rain)<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/E4Xev3ocBC\"> pic.twitter.com\/E4Xev3ocBC<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258007927568453634\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:17 AM &#8211; 6 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb (As usual please do not pollute the math threads with nonmath comments. I had to block a few people to clean up the thread. Thank you for your understanding.) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1258001859274584064\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:53 AM &#8211; 6 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb In case it rains today<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/gom8RW9Qv7\"> pic.twitter.com\/gom8RW9Qv7<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257994514272264193\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:23 AM &#8211; 6 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Indeed, this is the essence of #localism! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FitzroyMotor\/status\/1257968997041127424\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/FitzroyMotor\/status\/1257968997041127424 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257986125454626816\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:50 AM &#8211; 6 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I read Spencer&#8217;s stuff as I started learning about genetics. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/spwells\/status\/1257687089132343296\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/spwells\/status\/1257687089132343296 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257811760570085377\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:17 PM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Details<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/ynv4GBZR8o\"> pic.twitter.com\/ynv4GBZR8o<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257804404499066881\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:48 PM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 4) &#8220;Libertarians&#8221; are also incoherent: they deny stores the right to require masks &amp; constrain their freedom yet ask for freedom&#8230; Nothing to do with libertarianism: rather a collection of marshmallowbrained psychopaths and misfits taking their hatred of humanity too far. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257756786314088449\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:39 PM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Here @SrinivasR1729<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/hez1PydBHF\"> pic.twitter.com\/hez1PydBHF<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257752003217969153\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:20 PM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Other than<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/lzgr1mVQda\"> pic.twitter.com\/lzgr1mVQda<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257750010034302976\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:12 PM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Afternoon workout <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SrinivasR1729\/status\/1257667717986844672\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/SrinivasR1729\/status\/1257667717986844672 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257746299585212416\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:57 AM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I&#8217;ve been fooled by individuals. Never by ideas. #Libertarians #Psychologists <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257718308561915907\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:06 AM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb So Dr Faust, MD &amp; MS, plus some Harvard thingy, is proposing a FAUSTIAN bargain that he does not understand. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257684732143382531\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:53 AM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb It is the same first order pseudo-libertarianism that asked to remove airport security checks on grounds that there was no terrorists on planes anymore. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257652250849263624\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:43 AM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This dangerous imbecile is attributing job losses to deaths, as if it were govnts (not the virus) who caused the losses , &amp; as if measures did not reduce fatalities (cockpit locked door paradox in #TheBlackSwan). Aside from the odious approach to a &#8220;trade-off&#8221;. Shameful &amp; stupid. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jeremyfaust\/status\/1257379261016616960\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/jeremyfaust\/status\/1257379261016616960 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257646368832839680\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:20 AM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 3) &#8220;LIBERTARIAN&#8221; is meaningless a designation if you live under silver rules and laws. Localism is the only way to make what is called LIBERTARIANISM stand on its feet. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257632896715763713\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:27 AM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@Jaffer22915438 This is fantastic! In language that I can even understand. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257625992627138561\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257625992627138561 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/Jaffer22915438\/status\/1257629917304545282\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:15 AM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2) PRINCIPIA POLITICA shows the effects of scale\/localism. Systemic harm has no tort laws (you can&#8217;t sue a virus) so you MUST use the Precautionary Principle. Many libertarians are just cranks &amp; sociopaths. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Principia_Politica\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Principia_Politica <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257627171130167297\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:04 AM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Being flooded by first-order (scale-blind) &#8220;libertarians&#8221; (of the no masks, &#8220;freedom&#8221; to infect others variety), arguing that reactions to the virus (but not the virus) will cause hunger &amp; famine. Since when have these selfish sociopathic &#8220;libertarians&#8221; been concerned w\/famine? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257624460481486850\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:53 AM &#8211; 5 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@Alvarus_lat Ne tituli legi possint apud Zoom <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/benjcartlidge\/status\/1257278773046718464\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/benjcartlidge\/status\/1257278773046718464 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/Alvarus_lat\/status\/1257279376087035911\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:02 AM &#8211; 4 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@bessbell Send this thread to any idiot fucker who posts an Instagram at the beach or a crowded park. Tell them my dad says see you later. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/bessbell\/status\/1257073852330283008\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:25 PM &#8211; 3 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Why you don&#8217;t manage tails using an &#8220;average&#8221; or a &#8220;forecast&#8221; but how much uncertainty there is in the system. My derivations<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/iDHhelODw1\"> pic.twitter.com\/iDHhelODw1<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257063885510770688\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:46 PM &#8211; 3 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My point summarized by an engineer, someone in the real world. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/perepescador\/status\/1249137866602696704?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/perepescador\/status\/1249137866602696704?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257062010602258444\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:38 PM &#8211; 3 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The thrill of writing when you do it ON YOUR OWN TERMS. Stop the minute it requires the smallest effort. Painters are said to enjoy painting, writers &#8220;having written&#8221;. Painters are free &amp; ~all writers write on someone else&#8217;s terms. I don&#8217;t write reports, emails &gt;240 ch, etc. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kazivana\/status\/1257035761247031299\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/kazivana\/status\/1257035761247031299 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1257051401957650433\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:56 PM &#8211; 3 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Here is a simple detail <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248980856531812354?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248980856531812354?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1256977678361595905\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:03 AM &#8211; 3 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb There is ZERO rigor with Ioannidis. ZERO probabilistic reasoning &amp; risk management rigor. He doesn&#8217;t even known what an exponential means. ZERO. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/prophet-of-scientific-rigor-and-a-covid-contrarian\/?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=onsite-share&amp;utm_brand=wired&amp;utm_social-type=earned\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.wired.com\/story\/prophet-of-scientific-rigor-and-a-covid-contrarian\/?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=onsite-share&amp;utm_brand=wired&amp;utm_social-type=earned <\/a>\u00a0 via @wired <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1256970494336737281\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:34 AM &#8211; 3 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Like the spaghetti-minded Phil-the-rat @Ptetlock, there are still some pple around who are not getting skin in the game. To repeat: it is not just an incentive-disincentive problem but a FILTER &#8211;a filtering mechanism that helps remove harmful idiots. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SaintSal\/status\/1256919393591857152\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/SaintSal\/status\/1256919393591857152 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1256921137101131777\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:18 AM &#8211; 3 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Excellent idea. You want freedom to infect others; now pay for it. None of the people in parks enjoying their &#8220;freedom&#8221; should have any priority over and displace other sick people in hospitals. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/uuilly\/status\/1256800553062916096\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/uuilly\/status\/1256800553062916096 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1256916279837032448\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:59 AM &#8211; 3 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 3) The pisteuo pbm is the reason first-order atheists a la Dawkins &amp; religious people talk past one another: simply religious beliefs never claimed to be epistemic that is, belief in the scientific sense. You need to remove verbalism &amp; labels to understand what something means. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1256912553554456576\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:44 AM &#8211; 3 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2\/ In Semitic lang., &#8220;Amen&#8221; means &#8220;trust&#8221;, not epistemic belief, so professions of faith state trust. The Syriac credo is &#8220;mhayminan 7ad aloho&#8221; = &#8220;WE TRUST only one god&#8221;. (not &#8220;I&#8221; since; is no Nicene creed for non Greek-Orthodox\/Cath) Doxa in Christian Aramaic\/Syriac is tshba7.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/VLTM6j7Fbo\"> pic.twitter.com\/VLTM6j7Fbo<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1256911264074391553\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:39 AM &#8211; 3 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This is the &#8220;pisteuo&#8221; \u03a0\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5\u03cd\u03bf pblm. Credere does not mean epistemic belief, but trust, which I defined as &#8220;pisteic&#8221;, a kind of doxastic committment . From the Nicene credo: &#8220;\u03a0\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5\u03cd\u03bf\u03bc\u03b5\u03bd \u03b5\u1f30\u03c2 \u1f15\u03bd\u03b1 \u0398\u03b5\u1f78\u03bd&#8221; In Engligh, &#8220;belief&#8221; ~beloved. Note: \u03b4\u03cc\u03be\u03b1 = belief, gift, &amp; glorification. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ektrit\/status\/1256900841954578442\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ektrit\/status\/1256900841954578442 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1256903110439636992\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:07 AM &#8211; 3 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@morethanmySLE WATCH: Frontline health care workers in North Carolina stand-down protesters. This is AMAZING. BRAVE. And SAD that as hard as they have worked to SAVE lives, they have to CONVINCE people to stay home to protect these protesters from spreading #COVID__19<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/RuzaOpRF9L\"> pic.twitter.com\/RuzaOpRF9L<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/morethanmySLE\/status\/1256798534696869888\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:11 PM &#8211; 2 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Used the same chalk for this and weightlifting (the bar is next to the board). Punishment for distraction while lifting: injury. Mild, but serious punishment.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/jwIA5hJeMC\"> pic.twitter.com\/jwIA5hJeMC<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1256622477742149635\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:32 AM &#8211; 2 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@ektrit Risk vs Ruin are two different things. From Skin in the game by @nntaleb<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/hXRApNmnY1\"> pic.twitter.com\/hXRApNmnY1<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/ektrit\/status\/1256576513975123968\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:29 AM &#8211; 2 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@ektrit Risks involving tail risk, meaning risk which can cause collapse, must be avoided at any cost. From Skin in the game by @nntaleb<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/HECvdVsEPa\"> pic.twitter.com\/HECvdVsEPa<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/ektrit\/status\/1256572975559643137\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:15 AM &#8211; 2 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb MATH DU JOUR Stumbled upon an inequality but can&#8217;t prove it formally yet. Can&#8217;t find it in the literature. I&#8217;ts a generalization of x y\/(x+y)^2&lt;= 1\/4 (Non math commentators &amp; trolls will be blocked)<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/noka1PHrvc\"> pic.twitter.com\/noka1PHrvc<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1256384890091823104\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:47 PM &#8211; 1 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2\/ It is like an inverse problem vs problem. If you reverse engineer a dish based on ingredients you have at home, rather than decide on a given dish, for which the restaurant must carry at all times ALL ingredients (with no leeway), the mechanism is vastly more efficient. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1256206328068005888\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:58 AM &#8211; 1 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Deux poids, deux mesures? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/raoult_didier\/status\/1255824103099039745\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/raoult_didier\/status\/1255824103099039745 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1256204679056408577\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:51 AM &#8211; 1 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb QUESTION Given that 1) people stopped going to restaurants, 2) they kept eating, &amp; 3) farmers are dumping produce, dairy, meat owing to a surplus nobody wants, could it be that restaurants, (because of their need to maintain variety &amp; excess quantities) waste a looot of food? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1256201548071403520\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:39 AM &#8211; 1 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@JensWilhelm2 @nntaleb this is the best explanation of your 2 people-2 filters theory up to now! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PHLPublicHealth\/status\/1255941752164401153\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/PHLPublicHealth\/status\/1255941752164401153 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/JensWilhelm2\/status\/1256121302211088384\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:20 AM &#8211; 1 May 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb As expected, the Texas sharpshooting style ex post change of initial target. Now let&#8217;s look at the implications. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/raoult_didier\/status\/1255835517511483394\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/raoult_didier\/status\/1255835517511483394 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1256038047273103360\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:49 PM &#8211; 30 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2\/2 Weightlifting Discussion du jour: Clean-Press Part 2: which one is safer\/easier for heavy weights, + Power clean + Muscle clean PS- Thanks Maestro Grant @GrantSSC for answers to 1). <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255971022987235328\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:23 PM &#8211; 30 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Weightlifting Discussion du jour: Clean-Press If *x* is the weight that you can press from a rack for 5 reps, how many reps should you be able to do if you clean the bar first, for the exact same weight *x*. 5? 3? 2? cc:@GrantSSC <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255959261672243200\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:36 PM &#8211; 30 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb We don&#8217;t see counts of morbidities from Covid. Reports seem focused on deaths. We need more rigorous accounts\/estimates of damage to lungs, brains, heart, repro system,etc., ACROSS age groups. We have no clear idea if &#8220;permanent&#8221; but can see the risks from earliest infections. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255941572908244996\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:26 PM &#8211; 30 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The problem in the US is that proportion of overweight (or, to be polite, &#8220;exceedingly well fed&#8221;) &amp; metabolically challenged pple; the chief vulnerability for Covid. That makes any comparison or mortality rates between the US and Europe unrigorous. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255867077501620224\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:30 AM &#8211; 30 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Bingo! You never congratulate anyone for winning at the Russian roulette. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/alexandrionascu\/status\/1255863340800319493?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/alexandrionascu\/status\/1255863340800319493?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255865048305713153\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:22 AM &#8211; 30 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb DYNAMIC vs STATIC While the wisdom of a tail-risk decision under asymmetries is not to be decided after, comparative numbers for Sweden are much worse. Sweden&#8217;s numbers are growing at ~50-150 a day, Norway&#8217;s 1-5. So expect the ratios to soon be 4000-6000 vs 220-250 for Norway. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/1255825648448348161\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/1255825648448348161 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255859178297528320\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:58 AM &#8211; 30 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Looks like this is coming out in a genetics journal (as part of a larger study). Finally introduced rigor in the measurement of Genetic distances. Correlation\/Covariance do not reflect distances, ENTROPY does. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/41442347\/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/41442347\/Informational_Rescaling_of_PCA_Maps_with_Application_to_Genetics <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/7NyMSSC727&#8243;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/7NyMSSC727 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255674074883330048\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:43 PM &#8211; 29 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Tweets like that made me discover @justinamash. He seems to be a threat. Much more on that, later. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PamKeithFL\/status\/1255619460288962560\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/PamKeithFL\/status\/1255619460288962560 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255672665752338437\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:37 PM &#8211; 29 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Interesting. Alberta Investment Management Corp blew up EXACTLY in the way described in Chapter 3, &#8220;better convex than right&#8221;. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/premiamgmt\/status\/1255572797293621249\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/premiamgmt\/status\/1255572797293621249 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255584564996714503\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:47 PM &#8211; 29 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Actually, started already.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/BRrfkdKDGv\"> pic.twitter.com\/BRrfkdKDGv<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255555778339115009\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:53 AM &#8211; 29 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Free America now&#8230; from psychopaths!<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/jm9TKY4HTo\"> pic.twitter.com\/jm9TKY4HTo<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255485519821254656\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:14 AM &#8211; 29 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Underestimation of deaths from COVID. This is an interesting demonstration of the difference between thin\/fat tails. NonCovid deaths follow a thin-tailed distribution w\/Chernoff bounds &amp; v. low variance. So it is v easy to extract the near exact difference. #StatMethodology<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/PqXZjtb1OR\"> pic.twitter.com\/PqXZjtb1OR<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255452784696143872\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:04 AM &#8211; 29 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@mikeandallie 1\/2 I&#8217;ve been meaning to get to this paper for a few days but only found the time tonight. As usual Nassim gets to the point right away and the result presented in the introduction is fascinating &#8211; see paper below for full details and the next tweet for the result in the intro. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253358169214107648\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253358169214107648 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/mikeandallie\/status\/1255272739457417217\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:08 PM &#8211; 28 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@normonics fucking idiot. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ddiamond\/status\/1255193968809250823\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ddiamond\/status\/1255193968809250823 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1255242944602419202\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:10 PM &#8211; 28 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Conditions for PHASE 1 reopening: + Mandatory masks in public + Tests + No superspreaders: subways, urologists conferences, etc. + Monitoring of passengers + Economists &amp; psychologists stay locked-up at in permanent quarantine. Basically what we should have done in late January. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255225455726202880\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:00 PM &#8211; 28 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@dottorpax Un mio lavoro con @nntaleb sul rischio di coda delle pandemie uscir\u00e0 nei prossimi giorni su Nature Physics. Sar\u00e0 accessibile a tutti, e poster\u00f2 presto il link qui sotto. Il messaggio? Meglio non scherzare con certe cose, evitando i modellini giocattolo che si vedono in giro. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/dottorpax\/status\/1255205093948915715\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:39 AM &#8211; 28 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Removal of skin in the game. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WallStCynic\/status\/1255126652050378761\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/WallStCynic\/status\/1255126652050378761 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255189435731324930\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:37 AM &#8211; 28 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Tarde velle nolenlis est, Governor Cuomo. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255175495244820482\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:42 AM &#8211; 28 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb &#8220;Wishes&#8221;. Andrew Cuomo &#8220;whishes he blew the bugle on the virus in January. cc: @normonics @yaneerbaryam<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/VOaVVZadG3\"> pic.twitter.com\/VOaVVZadG3<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255162253080498177\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:49 AM &#8211; 28 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@stevesong Need to apply @nntaleb&#8217;s rule. Any corporation receiving a bailout should have executive remuneration adjusted to match that of a senior gov&#8217;t bureaucrat. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1255026523855376386\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Reuters\/status\/1255026523855376386 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/stevesong\/status\/1255116457060564992\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:47 AM &#8211; 28 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This is the first step in the dismantlement of citation rings. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/gfresh84173971\/status\/1255015591611686914?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/gfresh84173971\/status\/1255015591611686914?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1255110823422410753\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:25 AM &#8211; 28 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@renegruner1 When you haven`t heard of NNT. @nntaleb #COVID19<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/bWZ9xmkkrV\"> pic.twitter.com\/bWZ9xmkkrV<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/renegruner1\/status\/1255105718862188544\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:04 AM &#8211; 28 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Universities: If this continues, expect tenured faculty to get serious pay cuts &amp; to finally have to justify their existence &amp; the USEFULNESS of their so-called &#8220;research&#8221;. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254927409603842050\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:16 PM &#8211; 27 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb There is this illusion that the economy is harmed by the reaction to the virus rather than by the virus. In fact, if anything, it is harmed by the lack of EARLY reaction to the virus. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254800995340685312\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:54 AM &#8211; 27 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Stop the bullshit. Sweden did HORRIBLE compared to Norway Denmark Finland. Japan is an easily closed Island. Use comparable levels of connectedness. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254794604794318848\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:28 AM &#8211; 27 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb BS spotting du jour. Throughout history, we&#8217;ve ben quarantining &#8220;healthy&#8221; and &#8220;unhealthy&#8221; people. For the very reason that we only know ex post whether they are healthy or not. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/merlynwood\/status\/1254469140061892608\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/merlynwood\/status\/1254469140061892608 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254790578434306049\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:12 AM &#8211; 27 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This was (before my weight loss) a conversation with @Confusezeus at the Fletcher School of Diplomacy in 2015. @MilenaRodban who was in the audience was told that the faculty (political science empty suits) complained that &#8220;it was not academic&#8221;. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MasaSkiba\/status\/1249445673117900800\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/MasaSkiba\/status\/1249445673117900800 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254583186132291585\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:28 PM &#8211; 26 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Thread on errors in growth of pandemics <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254132648185921537?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254132648185921537?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254580276438740992\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:17 PM &#8211; 26 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb A reasoning mistake by Johnny Evidence <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248980856531812354\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248980856531812354 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254579918635184129\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:15 PM &#8211; 26 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Never tell people something if they know if already and they know that you know that they know it. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254461798075564032\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:26 AM &#8211; 26 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@MasaSkiba Some things never change.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/AwIpZz7kq6\"> pic.twitter.com\/AwIpZz7kq6<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/MasaSkiba\/status\/1254433477824569345\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:33 AM &#8211; 26 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb An interesting twist: until 1860, my ancestors specialized in shipping merchandise between the Ottoman Levant and Marseilles. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254430191860043776\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:20 AM &#8211; 26 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb How did the #Lindy crowd miss this? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/StearnsLab\/status\/1254170977103044608\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/StearnsLab\/status\/1254170977103044608 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254428918293069825\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:15 AM &#8211; 26 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb \u201cI love models,\u201d he adds. \u201cI do a lot of mathematical modeling myself.&#8221; No you don&#8217;t, &#8220;Johny evidence&#8221; Ioannidis. Science&#8221; is not about asymmetry in decisions: we didn&#8217;t wait for scientific evidence to know not to jump from a cliff. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/the-bearer-of-good-coronavirus-news-11587746176\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/the-bearer-of-good-coronavirus-news-11587746176 <\/a>\u00a0 via @WSJ <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254208815714754560\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:40 PM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Of course psychologists and pseudoempiricists are the first to promote danger. They were the ones who said Jan 26 that worrying about the virus was paranoia, cost us trillions so far. They don&#8217;t get multiplicative risk. Here is Phil the rat @PTetlock <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monsantobuster\/status\/1254182701864714241?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monsantobuster\/status\/1254182701864714241?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254184132143349762\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:02 PM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb These imbeciles really want to subject us to another virus. Why is why genetic modification of things that MULTIPLY fall under the (nonnaive) precautionary principle. Recall Mao&#8217;s policy to eliminate sparrows caused 50 mil to die of famine. #UnintendedConsequences <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/voxdotcom\/status\/1254160786148200459\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/voxdotcom\/status\/1254160786148200459 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254172926829568007\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:18 PM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb And the converse: if X is Pareto then r is exponential (\\alpha). cc:@DrCirillo<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/6DR5MRbnik\"> pic.twitter.com\/6DR5MRbnik<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254172001381556229\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:14 PM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Using a double exponential (Laplace) we get a power law to the right (naturally not the the left)<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/fLi6UbeowS\"> pic.twitter.com\/fLi6UbeowS<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254169989600460801\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:06 PM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Note you can use a double exponential (Laplace) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254163934338318336\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:42 PM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Never use single point estimates for pandemics 5\/13\/20 @Monsantobuster Prof Taleb @PTetlock does not know what a probability distribution means. pic.twitter.com\/YAXNpVst4s Permalink 8:10 AM &#8211; 14 May 2020 @bohemianGunjan &#8220;Panic is good only if you panic early, and as a trader the first thing you learn is to panic early&#8221;. &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb. @nntaleb [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1811,1814,1812,1794,1813,1599,1815],"class_list":["post-9125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-libertarians","tag-reason","tag-adaptation","tag-ioannidis","tag-justin-amash","tag-localism","tag-marshmallowbrained-psychopaths"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9125","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9125"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9125\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9128,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9125\/revisions\/9128"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9125"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9125"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9125"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}