{"id":9120,"date":"2020-04-26T01:17:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-26T08:17:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=9120"},"modified":"2020-04-26T15:11:49","modified_gmt":"2020-04-26T22:11:49","slug":"ioannidis-tetlock-summers-masks-oil-russian-roulette-astrology","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2020\/04\/ioannidis-tetlock-summers-masks-oil-russian-roulette-astrology\/","title":{"rendered":"Ioannidis, Tetlock, Summers, Masks, Oil, Russian Roulette, Astrology"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/L5DCWU6heKI?rel=0\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=L5DCWU6heKI\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">From the Convexity of Masks to No-Convexity Ben<\/a> | Youtube<br \/>\nPublished on Apr 24, 2020<br \/>\n+ Why the crisiss was not a Black Swan.<br \/>\n+ Masks compound (even if primitive)<br \/>\n+ Convexity Ben misleads with his &#8220;hedges&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2004.08658.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases<\/a> (pdf 4\/18\/2020)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1808.00065.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(Anti)Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicine<\/a> (pdf 7\/31\/2018)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/daily-comment\/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">The Pandemic Isn\u2019t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System<\/a> | NewYorker<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>As Taleb told me, \u201cThe great danger has always been too much connectivity.\u201d Proliferating global networks, both physical and virtual, inevitably incorporate more fat-tail risks into a more interdependent and \u201cfragile\u201d system: not only risks such as pathogens but also computer viruses, or the hacking of information networks, or reckless budgetary management by financial institutions or state governments, or spectacular acts of terror. Any negative event along these lines can create a rolling, widening collapse\u2014a true black swan\u2014in the same way that the failure of a single transformer can collapse an electricity grid.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2020\/04\/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Taleb: The Only Man Who Has A Clue<\/a> | NakedCapitalism<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/XhTHG3QmVwM?rel=0\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=XhTHG3QmVwM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Tutorial: Simple trick to see the effect of power laws<\/a> | Youtube<br \/>\nPublished on Apr 19, 2020<br \/>\nA simple tutorial explaining how, in the presence of power laws (with low exponent) most of the body of the distribution becomes noise.<br \/>\nOnce you establish that a variable is in the power law class, some necessary consequences come out.<br \/>\nTo debunk that history is dominated by tail events, you must show it does not follow a power law.<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb So we can infer that the rate of growth is NOT Gaussian, must be in the borderline subexponential class. r can be negative of course. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254136792607002627\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:54 PM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Voila<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/5lATAOUZr7\"> pic.twitter.com\/5lATAOUZr7<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254133736440029185\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:42 PM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Math Du Jour: What is the Distribution of Pandemics if the rate of growth follows an exponential distribution with mean 1\/\\lambda? Explains very simply the result with @DrCirillo<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/1StNQ7XFim\"> pic.twitter.com\/1StNQ7XFim<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254132648185921537\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:38 PM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This is the kind of crap dichotomy you hear, as if 1) letting the virus run wild would not kill the economy 2) It is the government that is closing the economy, not pple A segment of libertarians\/conservatives have a reasoning defect as they think in binary &amp; static labels. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RECusack\/status\/1254071852890284032\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/RECusack\/status\/1254071852890284032 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254072995628408832\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:41 AM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb So far, by substitution<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/MpMGzmY8Be\"> pic.twitter.com\/MpMGzmY8Be<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254068716536500224\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:24 AM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This is a mathematical problem, only for those into math. I block cute comments that are not helpful &amp; distract the readers. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254058318412333056\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:42 AM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Quarantine workout<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/AC2B4T6m4V\"> pic.twitter.com\/AC2B4T6m4V<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254045316426457088\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:51 AM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Larry Summers, advisor? Aside from his hideous track record, Summers was fiercely AGAINST putting skin in the game of decision makers. He even managed to transform my claim that it was &#8220;necessary&#8221; into &#8220;sufficient&#8221; &amp; argued on that basis. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.institutionalinvestor.com\/article\/b14zbkx4h89y1b\/larry-summers-and-nassim-taleb-go-mano-a-mano\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.institutionalinvestor.com\/article\/b14zbkx4h89y1b\/larry-summers-and-nassim-taleb-go-mano-a-mano <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1254015254410952706\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:51 AM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Foreseen by @barabasi <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pauld198\/status\/1253838892597309440\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/pauld198\/status\/1253838892597309440 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253980968232370176\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:35 AM &#8211; 25 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@urcum62 Angela Merkel truly understands the Covid dynamics and the Math behind it. She also understands the diffucilties associated with low probabilities. #AngelaMerkel <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/benjalvarez1\/status\/1250563198081740800\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/benjalvarez1\/status\/1250563198081740800 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/urcum62\/status\/1253845658441789440\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:37 PM &#8211; 24 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Looks like the govmt is hiring Kroll to investigate #RiadPonzi&#8217;s books. Kroll specializes in FRAUD, tracking transfers, etc. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253767980544073730\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:29 PM &#8211; 24 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Add this to the list <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Justin_Ling\/status\/1222573660952842240?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Justin_Ling\/status\/1222573660952842240?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253736202903093256\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:22 AM &#8211; 24 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Lebanon: #RiadPonzi Salameh is the most destructive central banker in history. He managed to stick to power for ~30 y through 10 governmnets. He is now trying to make it political. No, it is not because Hezb hates him that he is suddenly competent, honest, &amp; principled. #Lebanon <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253733272934383618\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:11 AM &#8211; 24 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb From the Convexity of Masks to Convexity Ben <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/L5DCWU6heKI\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/youtu.be\/L5DCWU6heKI <\/a>\u00a0 via @YouTube <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253706032553103361\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:23 AM &#8211; 24 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2020\/04\/24\/coronavirus-systemic-risks-black-swan-squawk-box.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&amp;par=sharebar\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/video\/2020\/04\/24\/coronavirus-systemic-risks-black-swan-squawk-box.html?__source=sharebar|twitter&amp;par=sharebar <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253694969258409984\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:39 AM &#8211; 24 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The point is not whether it works or not (it may); it is just irresponsible to gamble with citizens under such opacity. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1253678040305094660\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1253678040305094660 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253683410423500804\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:53 AM &#8211; 24 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@hjluks Sarcopenia should be a four-lettered word &#8230; If you&#8217;re over 40 it&#8217;s happening as you read this :-( . So much badness comes from a lack of muscle mass. So much goodness comes from improving your muscle mass. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.howardluksmd.com\/sports-medicine\/muscle-mass-strength-and-longevity\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.howardluksmd.com\/sports-medicine\/muscle-mass-strength-and-longevity\/ <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/hjluks\/status\/1253678269355999234\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:32 AM &#8211; 24 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@Monsantobuster Best summary, Prof @nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/okohonen\/status\/1253607153857974274\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/okohonen\/status\/1253607153857974274 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/Monsantobuster\/status\/1253626396867530757\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:06 AM &#8211; 24 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@vibinbaburajan [Thread] Nassim Taleb&#8217;s 17 best one-line wisdom. @nntalebbot @nntaleb @TalebWisdom 1. The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates, and a monthly salary. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/vibinbaburajan\/status\/1253615784095387649\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:24 AM &#8211; 24 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Chi mangia solo, muore solo. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NaomiOhReally\/status\/1252519056403501057\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/NaomiOhReally\/status\/1252519056403501057 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253483918478761984\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:40 PM &#8211; 23 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@DavidSalazarVir Trying to get my head around fat-tails by studying @nntaleb&#8217;s latest technical book. Replicated some plots in #rstats #tidyverse <a href=\"https:\/\/david-salazar.github.io\/2020\/04\/17\/fat-vs-thin-does-lln-work\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/david-salazar.github.io\/2020\/04\/17\/fat-vs-thin-does-lln-work\/ <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/NFuuQVhcXg&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/NFuuQVhcXg <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/DavidSalazarVir\/status\/1253408590833963008\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:41 PM &#8211; 23 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I was expecting the #Lindy activists to dig out mask-wearing practices in history. For instance, the Tuareg berber tribes: men wore masks.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/frToQRC8Hv\"> pic.twitter.com\/frToQRC8Hv<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253381563666042883\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:53 AM &#8211; 23 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Emanuel Derman (who knows something about probability) exposing the dangerous BS by Phil the Rat @PTetlock &#8211;whose knowledge of probability is way too primitive. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EmanuelDerman\/status\/1252958006695911424\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/EmanuelDerman\/status\/1252958006695911424 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253359613443006464\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:26 AM &#8211; 23 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo &#8220;Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases&#8221; using Extreme Value Theory. Advice by non EVT-trained epidemiologists concerning COVID-19th tail risks is no different from advice by a carpenter concerning complex odds at roulette tables. <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2004.08658.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/2004.08658.pdf <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/FxQ5Jr9tJO&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/FxQ5Jr9tJO <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253358169214107648\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:20 AM &#8211; 23 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb From my dispute w\/ #NoConvexityBen Meng from CALPERS (currently) largest fund on planet PRINCIPLE: Thou Shalt Not compare convex payoffs (w\/ tiny downside) to linear ones (w\/yuuge downside). More Basic: Thou Shalt Not Call speculative trades &#8220;hedges&#8221;. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2020\/04\/taleb-questions-calpers-ben-mengs-competence-and-honesty-in-defending-missed-1-billion-hedge-gain-taleb-estimates-calpers-net-loss-on-mengs-alternative-mitigation-over-two-years-at-19-billi.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2020\/04\/taleb-questions-calpers-ben-mengs-competence-and-honesty-in-defending-missed-1-billion-hedge-gain-taleb-estimates-calpers-net-loss-on-mengs-alternative-mitigation-over-two-years-at-19-billi.html <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253293640803389440\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:04 AM &#8211; 23 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The safest policy is to act as if we had NO idea about the consequences of this. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/robkhenderson\/status\/1252724074335424519\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/robkhenderson\/status\/1252724074335424519 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253076430252126210\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:41 PM &#8211; 22 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb People are interested in masks &amp; testing. Not in geopolitics (except on the weekend). Not in spending trillions on nuclear weapons when we can&#8217;t even get N95 masks. <a href=\"https:\/\/link.medium.com\/fmROiAGnS5\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/link.medium.com\/fmROiAGnS5 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253020682318942210\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:59 AM &#8211; 22 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EHSANI22\/status\/1250996337530867718?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/EHSANI22\/status\/1250996337530867718?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253014281957912577\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:34 AM &#8211; 22 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Gambling by governments is irresponsible, even if the result turns out to be favorable. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1253012131911475201\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:25 AM &#8211; 22 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Our security = testing incoming passengers at JFK, not where trillions were spent: building yuuuge capabilities against very weak nations. Where are the tests? Where are the masks? Spending trillions (literally) because governments don&#8217;t understand the real sources of risk. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/1252932181447630848\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/1252932181447630848 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252985921135423488\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:41 AM &#8211; 22 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Paulina N is correct to emphasize the death toll. But it will be much higher as you must integrate future deaths at rate. Also missing morbidity: % of survivors end up with permanent lung &amp; other damage. Finally, even if Sw ends up ahead (it won&#8217;t), the move is not responsible. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/paulinaneuding\/status\/1252494869559476224\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/paulinaneuding\/status\/1252494869559476224 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252968766247448577\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:33 AM &#8211; 22 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Reduced connectivity Masks Culturally, precaution is respected <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BrankoMilan\/status\/1252812420357083137\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/BrankoMilan\/status\/1252812420357083137 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252922563812102144\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:29 AM &#8211; 22 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Bachelier was right. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MarcosCarreira\/status\/1252918341364256768\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/MarcosCarreira\/status\/1252918341364256768 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/pamW1RqDK4&#8243;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/pamW1RqDK4 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252920894399356929\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:23 AM &#8211; 22 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb New hobby thanks to lockdown: Olympic lifts <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252758824689242112\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252758824689242112 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252904253858906114\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:17 AM &#8211; 22 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom Here is one of my favorite @nntaleb quotes: &#8220;Don&#8217;t cross a river if it is four feet deep on average.&#8221; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1252879168083124226\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:37 AM &#8211; 22 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Joe is good. Very good. Should we start calling him &#8220;Sherlock Shipman&#8221;? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/joe_shipman\/status\/1252668127495806977\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/joe_shipman\/status\/1252668127495806977 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252728742029516800\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:39 PM &#8211; 21 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb LINDY Quarantine &amp; restriction of mobility are Lindy; they are present in the old testament &amp; in Islam: &#8220;If you&#8217;re away, &amp; disease breaks out, you stay there. If home, you stay home.&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1252443190499717121\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1252443190499717121 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252708665137729536\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:19 PM &#8211; 21 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@DrAmithaMD Waited for this&#8230; such a good analysis on whether #COVID19 was a rare event (it was, but we ignored the signs). &#8220;The Pandemic Isn\u2019t a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System&#8221; @nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/daily-comment\/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=onsite-share&amp;utm_brand=the-new-yorker&amp;utm_social-type=earned\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.newyorker.com\/news\/daily-comment\/the-pandemic-isnt-a-black-swan-but-a-portent-of-a-more-fragile-global-system?utm_source=twitter&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_campaign=onsite-share&amp;utm_brand=the-new-yorker&amp;utm_social-type=earned <\/a>\u00a0 via @NewYorker @bavishai <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/DrAmithaMD\/status\/1252675805689319425\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:09 PM &#8211; 21 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@joe_shipman STATISTICAL INFERENCE PUZZLE @nntaleb Is \u201c2 false positives in 401 trials\u201d consistent with \u201c50 false positives in 3300 trials\u201d? What is a good null hypothesis, and what is the p-value? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/joe_shipman\/status\/1252614425787478016\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:05 AM &#8211; 21 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Actually slight modification to the great results by &#8220;Johnny evidence&#8221; Ioannidis. You don&#8217;t need Jensen to prove the inequality<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/AbQI9rbcDQ\"> pic.twitter.com\/AbQI9rbcDQ<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252595730134511616\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:51 AM &#8211; 21 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The Trump Administration is suspending immigration owing to the Corovirus pandemic after discovering the interesting epidemiological property that (documented) immigrants are highly infectious, but tourists &amp; business visitors are not. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252594961989672960\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:48 AM &#8211; 21 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Another grave error in the &#8220;Johnny evidence&#8221; Ioannidis &amp; friends paper, not too dissimilar to Simpson&#8217;s paradox, (also spotted by @gian_rinaldi, private communication): They don&#8217;t get the convexity of divisions. If a result doesn&#8217;t make sense &amp; comes from nerds, it is wrong. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/thackerpd\/status\/1252549640714665984\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/thackerpd\/status\/1252549640714665984 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/afMaSqvF0Y&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/afMaSqvF0Y <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252562203879903232\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:37 AM &#8211; 21 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@ishirubi Ok I can go rest in peace now:<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/cYAIlQsLFF\"> pic.twitter.com\/cYAIlQsLFF<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/ishirubi\/status\/1252367278412148736\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:43 PM &#8211; 20 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 3) This is from Dynamic Hedging (1997), with a discussion of fungibility and first deliverable contract.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/BTDXA6Bc7k\"> pic.twitter.com\/BTDXA6Bc7k<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252321964305285121\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:43 PM &#8211; 20 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2\/ Oil: The basis is out of whack because of storage. It is like being stuck in traffic in a Bentley, and no possibility of leaving it so you need to pay someone to take it from you. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252318736868093955\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:30 PM &#8211; 20 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@paulanawfal \u0645\u0646 \u0643\u0645 \u0634\u0647\u0631 \u0631\u062d\u062a \u0644\u0623\u062d\u0636\u0631 \u0646\u062f\u0648\u0629 \u0644 @nntaleb \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0645\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u064a\u0633\u0648\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u0645\u0627 \u0643\u0627\u0646 \u0641\u064a \u0648\u0633\u0639\u0649 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0631\u062d \u062d\u0636\u0631\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0647\u064a\u062f\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0642\u0637\u0639 \u0647\u0648 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0636\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u064a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0646\u062f\u0648\u0629 #RamsusRiad<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/00vLBPkT4w\"> pic.twitter.com\/00vLBPkT4w<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/paulanawfal\/status\/1252311786159837184\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:02 PM &#8211; 20 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Every #RWRI we discuss the situation how *oil above ground* (hence the front oil future) can sqeeze suckers and have a negative value because it can be impossible to store during a glut and impossible to abandon because of EPA. Negative optionality from liability. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1252298699792883713\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1252298699792883713 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252310184648675328\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:56 AM &#8211; 20 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #protectyourpension #CalPERS #tailrisk #tailhedge <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2020\/04\/press-ferrets-out-more-falsehoods-by-calpers-cio-ben-meng-evidence-of-poor-leadership-in-giving-up-1-billion-hedge-payday.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2020\/04\/press-ferrets-out-more-falsehoods-by-calpers-cio-ben-meng-evidence-of-poor-leadership-in-giving-up-1-billion-hedge-payday.html <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/calpers-unwound-hedges-just-before-marchs-epic-stock-selloff-11587211200\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/calpers-unwound-hedges-just-before-marchs-epic-stock-selloff-11587211200 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/J3rUY6vc60&#8243;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/J3rUY6vc60 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/black_swan_man\/status\/1252278670485590022\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:51 AM &#8211; 20 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2015: When people ask me to talk about RISK, I talk about epidemics. Not ISIS, not journalistic BS. [I lost weight and increased by Max DL by 100 lbs since] <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/DDdBTaLjGIo\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/youtu.be\/DDdBTaLjGIo <\/a>\u00a0 via @YouTube <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252267823277146112\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:08 AM &#8211; 20 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Sorry, I meant he doesn&#8217;t get that car accidents are not multiplicative. IOANNIDIS: Here we have someone doing probability &amp; lecturing people on probability errors who like this ignorant Phil the rat Tetlock @PTetlock has never heard of Chernoff bounds. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252249356977295360\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:54 AM &#8211; 20 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb John Ioannidis, in his argumentation, reasoning, and demeanor reminds me of what we call &#8220;a pre-blown up trader&#8221;. He doesn&#8217;t get (among other things) that driving 9 to 415 miles is not multiplicative and CONTAGIOUS. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RealSaavedra\/status\/1249941253887844352\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/RealSaavedra\/status\/1249941253887844352 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252247399302660096\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:47 AM &#8211; 20 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This is a statistical signal abt HQN to ADDRESS even if Zelenko, like Raoult, doesn&#8217;t look like Dr. Could be: samples of large &#8220;anecdotes&#8221; are biased, or NY &amp; Marseilles hide the dead. Note that the media DOES NOT require a double blind for Gilead. Explain the dual standards. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/zev_dr\/status\/1252180245760937996\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/zev_dr\/status\/1252180245760937996 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1252202830951219202\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:49 AM &#8211; 20 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@balajis Just-the-flu journalists failed across the board. That includes Fox, and the NYT reporter now denouncing Fox.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/tnSaw7LWOG\"> pic.twitter.com\/tnSaw7LWOG<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/balajis\/status\/1251998201978277888\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:16 PM &#8211; 19 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Compare the richest countries, such as Sweden, making a &#8220;tradoff&#8221; (which is not even a tradeoff anyway) compared to much poorer places in the East Med, India, or China that wouldn&#8217;t even remotely consider a Faustian bargain. Shame. Wealth brings moral degeneracy. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251985220632489986\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:25 PM &#8211; 19 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb GERONTICIDE is the sign of moral decay. Indian official explained only &#8220;rich&#8221; countries make a tradeoff betw lives &amp; &#8220;economy&#8221; (assuming they are separable). The argument of &#8220;lockdown costing lives&#8221; is bunk: in the poor country, India, ~nobody starved. The richer, the worse!!! <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251971513743523842\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:30 PM &#8211; 19 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb People are starting to understand stuff. It took a pandemic for that. I never never dreamed that my Russian Roulette argument would be expressed by those against whom I have used it over the past 2 decades.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/Xih2Vse1Ft\"> pic.twitter.com\/Xih2Vse1Ft<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251932827454705676\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:57 AM &#8211; 19 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb A simple tutorial explaining how, in the presence of power laws (with low exponent) most of the body of the distribution is NOISE. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=XhTHG3QmVwM&amp;feature=youtu.be\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=XhTHG3QmVwM&amp;feature=youtu.be <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251919638348337152\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:04 AM &#8211; 19 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Paper with @DrCirillo on the Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases. Explains our attitude towards the disease; why epidemiological models are largely NOISE. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/42307438\/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/42307438\/Tail_Risk_of_Contagious_Diseases <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251888619268255745\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:01 AM &#8211; 19 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Rats will also be liars. &#8220;Phil the rat&#8221; @PTetlock is misrepresenting the reason I call him a rat. It is for spending years trying to publicly discredit our concern for tail payoff, ergodicity w\/o a slightest clue abt the statistical implication of power laws, even probability. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251874914732302342\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:06 AM &#8211; 19 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Solution. This friend of mine found the trick. If there is (cc) on Youtube you can see both the subtitles in the original language and the transcript in English.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/ZhHkwO8D0z\"> pic.twitter.com\/ZhHkwO8D0z<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251832695098945541\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:19 AM &#8211; 19 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Add: the IYI was wrong on masks, mobility, multiplicative risks, etc. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ektrit\/status\/1251827685841608704\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ektrit\/status\/1251827685841608704 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251828516339044353\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:02 AM &#8211; 19 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Alternative explanations are 1) ouzo (what we call in the Levant &#8220;the milk of lions&#8221;), 2) Orthodoxy: Unlike Spain, Greece celebrates Easter on the correct calendar, 3) Greek coffee (a.k.a. Turkish). Otherwise quite convincing. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1251704323035344896\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1251704323035344896 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251817824458285056\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:20 AM &#8211; 19 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@SrinivasR1729 Go down deep enough into anything and you will find mathematics.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/EUP0mV41u6\"> pic.twitter.com\/EUP0mV41u6<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/SrinivasR1729\/status\/1251770722860466176\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:12 AM &#8211; 19 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb <a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/JeE1psGJKF\"> pic.twitter.com\/JeE1psGJKF<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251660805512314882\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:56 PM &#8211; 18 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Learned to cook linguini with squid ink. Who needs restaurants when you have 1) internet access, 2) good olive oil, 3) really fresh garlic &amp; parsley, 4) fresh tomatoes, 5) good white wine, 6) salt, etc.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/JDDogjGEF7\"> pic.twitter.com\/JDDogjGEF7<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251660191868817408\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:53 PM &#8211; 18 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@yaneerbaryam Currently people testing positive (or presumptive positive) are sent home to infect their families. Where is the outrage? There should be other options so that families will be safe. Every community, state and country, should have a &#8220;Safe Family&#8221; program. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1251652647721021440\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:23 PM &#8211; 18 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Friends, this friend of mine wants to watch a Greek movie with both Greek and English subtitles. Netflix can do it in other languages, not Greek (he is based in the US). Is there a way to do it? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251645591412789255\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:55 PM &#8211; 18 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb \u03a7\u03c1\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03cc\u03c2 \u0391\u03bd\u03ad\u03c3\u03c4\u03b7 ! <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251573970995904515\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:11 AM &#8211; 18 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@artemon Seems like a great case of absence of evidence being treated like evidence of absence, plus violating the precautionary principle. Thank you @nntaleb for teaching me to see these clearly. <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2020\/04\/17\/no-need-to-wipe-down-food-packaging-during-coronavirus-pandemic-fda-says\/amp\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/nypost.com\/2020\/04\/17\/no-need-to-wipe-down-food-packaging-during-coronavirus-pandemic-fda-says\/amp\/ <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/artemon\/status\/1251564962004246528\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:35 AM &#8211; 18 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Nobody realized that for Lebanon, Greece, Cyprus, &amp; Marseilles, the real reason of the low rate of Corona infections\/fatalities is the arak\/ouzo\/pastis. Experiments show you need to drink it during &amp; before every meal for it to be effective. And try the purest you can find.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/XQzIIs0L4N\"> pic.twitter.com\/XQzIIs0L4N<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251538096073715728\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:48 AM &#8211; 18 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Bravo #Lebanon. Early paranoia pays!<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/CU5yP416tf\"> pic.twitter.com\/CU5yP416tf<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251477372949446661\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:47 AM &#8211; 18 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb What is behind, among others, the moniker &#8220;Phil the rat&#8221; @PTetlock. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1250994645041131522\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1250994645041131522 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251475532576894982\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:39 AM &#8211; 18 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom &#8220;The intellectshual world is populated by a collection of people who are much better at explaining than understanding.&#8221; &#8211; Nassim Taleb <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1251470474036621319\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:19 AM &#8211; 18 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@berndschiffer And also @nntaleb &#8216;s &#8220;new kind of ingratitude&#8221; comes to mind. &#8220;Who is more valuable, the politician who avoids a war or the one who starts a new one (and is lucky enough to win)?&#8221; #COVID19Aus #COVID<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/UXLn1kAOMs\"> pic.twitter.com\/UXLn1kAOMs<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/berndschiffer\/status\/1251453301880573954\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:11 AM &#8211; 18 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@uair01 Nice picture of extremistan versus mediocristan mortality and why &#8221; Covid is different: @nntaleb @trishankkarthik <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EWErickson\/status\/1251113801384185858\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/EWErickson\/status\/1251113801384185858 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/uair01\/status\/1251158551604506633\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:40 AM &#8211; 17 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@stevenstrogatz Yes, @nntaleb practices what he preaches. On the day we met, he walked me around New York for seven hours and enjoyed a plate of pasta with squid ink. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/humankarp\/status\/1248240881666347008\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/humankarp\/status\/1248240881666347008 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/DhhphvMtrp&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/DhhphvMtrp <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/stevenstrogatz\/status\/1251140519645896704\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:28 AM &#8211; 17 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Drowning in swimming pools is extremely contagious and multiplicative. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Acyn\/status\/1250975504401760256\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Acyn\/status\/1250975504401760256 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1251108127279321093\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:19 AM &#8211; 17 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb HITS THE SPOT: &#8220;What is happening right now is not because all the epidemiologists &amp; virologists around the world are wrong, but because they\u2019re asked to make decisons and construct models about something they don\u2019t know nearly enough about.&#8221; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2020\/04\/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2020\/04\/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1250942965121515521\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:23 PM &#8211; 16 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb OK, OK. Thanks @yvessmith <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2020\/04\/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.nakedcapitalism.com\/2020\/04\/taleb-the-only-man-who-has-a-clue.html <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1250860839147634690\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:57 AM &#8211; 16 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: In Judeo-Arabic Baghdad seems to be spelled \u05d1\u05d2\u05d3\u05d3 not \u05d1\u05e2\u05d3\u05d3(with a gimmel not a ghayn) (unlike more historical \u063a\u0632\u0629-&gt; \u05e2\u05d6\u05d4 or Gomorrah \u05e2\u05b2\u05de\u05b9\u05e8\u05b8\u05d4 not \u05d2\u05de\u05b9\u05e8\u05b8\u05d4 from transliteration \u0393\u03bf\u03bc\u03bf\u03c1\u03c1\u03b1\u03bd) (pharyngeal [\u0295] not epiglottal [\u02a2.) When was the \u063a lost in Hebrew? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1250843940347088897\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:50 AM &#8211; 16 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Why you cannot use epidemiological models with point estimates when variables are stochastic. An illustration. You end up with a crazy distribution of outcomes, get fooled. This is our problem with the UK &#8220;model&#8221;.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/yBk1AygMwN\"> pic.twitter.com\/yBk1AygMwN<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1250825300084248582\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:36 AM &#8211; 16 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This is potentially yuuuuge. Do not miss. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/stephen_wolfram\/status\/1250088423450435588\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/stephen_wolfram\/status\/1250088423450435588 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1250114226984816642\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:30 AM &#8211; 14 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I don&#8217;t know if he (and those liking the graph) realize that an R-squared of .15 means, if you look at it generously, that almost all the variance is for random reasons, something like ~98% (conventional) or (entropy) &gt;99.9%. @salilstatistics <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jburnmurdoch\/status\/1249821828891250688\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/jburnmurdoch\/status\/1249821828891250688 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1250029245650386946\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:52 AM &#8211; 14 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@Jac5Connor Nassim asks an important question: Do masks cause earthquakes? I bet this is why the WHO took so long to recommend them. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249760833967656961\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249760833967656961 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/Jac5Connor\/status\/1249793014202904579\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:14 PM &#8211; 13 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@gernelle \u00abUne cat\u00e9gorie de personnes ne cesse d&#8217;augmenter(&#8230;) plus dou\u00e9es pour expliquer que pour comprendre. Ou plus dou\u00e9es pour expliquer que pour faire.\u201d \u2066@nntaleb\u2069 cit\u00e9 par \u2066@sebastienlefol\u2069 dans un \u00e9dito percutant #covid \u2066@LePoint\u2069 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lepoint.fr\/tiny\/1-2371181\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.lepoint.fr\/tiny\/1-2371181 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/gernelle\/status\/1249769423826759687\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:40 AM &#8211; 13 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Just explained in a lecture that risk management and &#8220;science&#8221; are not the same thing. Risk is about asymmetries. With .1% error rate, few flight attendants would be alive.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/mTZMi4YKaK\"> pic.twitter.com\/mTZMi4YKaK<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249702528377335808\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:14 AM &#8211; 13 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Do not conflate doing science and being nice and polite to scientists. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249652259534839808\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:54 AM &#8211; 13 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Friends, another robust question to get the convexity. How many people contracted COVID while wearing surgical masks? How many w\/N95? How many with cowboy scarves? (Assume for now homogeneity. We are looking for convexity, not measurement). <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249520934731616259\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:13 PM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb We have a hint: @dzviovich just sent me something useful: comparison of US vs CZ w\/a single sign. difference: edict to wear maks. We know masks work (from other combined statistical signals). Now let&#8217;s back up the convexity of probability of infection to particle concentration.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/H2KNgiptX5\"> pic.twitter.com\/H2KNgiptX5<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249519187359383557\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:06 PM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb We need to get the probability of getting sick at different concentration of droplets. We could probably back it up (or get a handle on the convexity) from country data (Czech republic). Intuition: reduction of 70% of particles is yuuuge: home masks should work. Plus if 2-way!<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/Fd4nQ8Pxmr\"> pic.twitter.com\/Fd4nQ8Pxmr<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249516137450176512\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:53 PM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb There is something about &#8220;ceteris paribus&#8221; (everything else being constant) for a marginal property that commentators are not getting. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249496687586037762\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:36 PM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@spwells An excerpt from my interview with @VanceCrowe discussing why the Coronavirus pandemic isn\u2019t a black swan event. @nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/wjUp6EKEI7k\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/youtu.be\/wjUp6EKEI7k <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/emiTijIbp4&#8243;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/emiTijIbp4 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/spwells\/status\/1249494094566449153\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:26 PM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The answer is by @Physical_Prep which maps to the 2\/3 scaling exponent found by Geoffrey West. It depends on your level of course as you can see. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Physical_Prep\/status\/1249478047478276100?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Physical_Prep\/status\/1249478047478276100?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249483937027686401\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:45 PM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb WEIGHTLIFTING Friends, for every additional 10lbs of say deadlift how many additional pounds of muscle mass would be gained? Approximately of course. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249459064775626752\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:07 PM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I&#8217;ve lost weight since. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MasaSkiba\/status\/1249445673117900800\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/MasaSkiba\/status\/1249445673117900800 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249448917336559617\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:26 PM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@normonics John Conway lost to coronavirus. That is terrible news. Conway&#8217;s game of life is something I always show at #RWRI. NEVER fails to make the floating lightbulbs above everyone&#8217;s heads spark on. RIP <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/trishankkarthik\/status\/1249439501585453056\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/trishankkarthik\/status\/1249439501585453056 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1249440774409854976\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:54 PM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Happy Palm Sunday! And, to those on the non-Orthodox calendar, Happy Easter! <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249339577011224576\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:12 AM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb That&#8217;s for an individual. If everyone wore *VERY BAD* masks, I guess the number of deaths would drop by a yuuuge factor, maybe 90%. Why? p is probability of infection, look at 1-p^n because everyone is reducing. For 2 pple masks act a 2-way filter, 1-p^2. Yuuge. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249302327158333442\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:44 AM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The proof is in <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1808.00065.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1808.00065.pdf <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/I7ibmge5EY&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/I7ibmge5EY <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249298856917032961\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:30 AM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb MASKS One comment about masks and nonlinearities that these imbeciles are not getting. Reducing exposure to viruses by 30% thanks to an &#8220;imperfect&#8221; mask does not mean reducing risk of contracting the disease by just 30%. By convexity, it must be more than 30%, can even be 95%. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249296844712218624\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:22 AM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Treading *absence of evidence* as *evidence of absence* is a form of overoptimization. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249289397532602368\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:52 AM &#8211; 12 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@joe_shipman <a href=\"https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/04\/10\/830348837\/covid-19-patients-given-unproven-drug-in-texas-nursing-home-garnering-criticism\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.npr.org\/2020\/04\/10\/830348837\/covid-19-patients-given-unproven-drug-in-texas-nursing-home-garnering-criticism <\/a>\u00a0 This is an very evil article. It may not be apparent at first why I make such a serious charge. But I stand by it. It is viciously slanted with sophistical language and manipulative presentation, even though the truth can be discerned anyway. @nntaleb <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/joe_shipman\/status\/1249160641639841792\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:21 PM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb and&#8230; the NYT and science journos and ignorant &#8220;evidence based&#8221; epidemiologists who can&#8217;t read absence of evidence got us here. Don&#8217;t blame mayors who shut down cities, blame misinformation about masks and mobility. Blame the New York Times. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249152529927229440\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:49 PM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb It&#8217;s not the reaction that wrecked the economy. It&#8217;s the LACK of INITIAL reaction that wrecked the economy. Proper border controls on Jan 26, plus masks &amp; tests &amp; we&#8217;d be fine now. The @CDC, @WHO, UK Gov helped spread disinformation. After 3 m, still no masks &amp; tests!!! <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249149948827926531\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:38 PM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Correction: Does Big Pharma own the media? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249100450424451079\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:22 PM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Chloroquine: Does Big Pharma owns the media? + Studies are said to be &#8220;not rigorous&#8221; when it comes to Chloroquine in spite of robust statistical signal + Studies w\/less rigor and significance are promoted when it comes to drugs by Gilead Note: Chl was OTC, costs 1 Euro a pack.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/UU2URRxWNV\"> pic.twitter.com\/UU2URRxWNV<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249099768007024644\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:19 PM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Managed to sneak in 2 footnotes for my new book related to COVID before the printing starts. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Statistical-Consequences-Fat-Tails-Preasymptotics\/dp\/1544508050\/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&amp;keywords=taleb+tails&amp;qid=1586634894&amp;sr=8-1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Statistical-Consequences-Fat-Tails-Preasymptotics\/dp\/1544508050\/ref=sr_1_1?dchild=1&amp;keywords=taleb+tails&amp;qid=1586634894&amp;sr=8-1 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/9XRe6AxUsg&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/9XRe6AxUsg <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249063941466132481\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:57 PM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The best therapy; lowers our anxiety and helps organize our minds while facing mild uncertainty. Aesthetic and harmless; unlike economics and social &#8220;science&#8221;. Discussed in #FooledbyRandomness <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/viggiereggae\/status\/1249038310405701632\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/viggiereggae\/status\/1249038310405701632 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249043280400171013\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:34 AM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@birdxi1988 This is how @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam and @normonics \u2018s Precautionary Principle destroys the evidence-based practices. In January, they specifically warned that the estimated R0 would be biased downwards. Guess what, CDC says that R0 appears to be 5.7 vs. 2.2-2.7 previously thought!<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/xP9BOb4Jl3\"> pic.twitter.com\/xP9BOb4Jl3<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/birdxi1988\/status\/1249041079820783616\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:26 AM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@davidsarac What Nassim Nicholas Taleb is showing us by his persistent rudeness is that things one is ready to be rude about are worthy of understanding too In terms of evolutionary dynamics, it is a cry of the bird warning other birds predator is approaching <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/davidsarac\/status\/1249032977507422208\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:54 AM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb More elegant. It is hard to live on a planet where the most cited person in epidemiology, John Ioannidis, doesn&#8217;t understand exponential, hence multiplication. Yet he tries to make policy.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/iZadn4eaUK\"> pic.twitter.com\/iZadn4eaUK<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1249003531111104513\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:57 AM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Wrong. Levantine coast had 5 additional Greek areas. Plus Berytus and Baalbeck spoke mainly Latin owing to Law school and Roman resettlements. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/simongerman600\/status\/1248733254838075392\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/simongerman600\/status\/1248733254838075392 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248984989171175425\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:43 AM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb John Ioannidis does not get that model uncertainty WORSENS possible outcomes under exponential growth &amp; should lead to MORE reaction. Dangerous ignorance. Here is a derivation from Jensen&#8217;s ineq.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/XGUtqlR2py\"> pic.twitter.com\/XGUtqlR2py<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248980856531812354\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:26 AM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@pierrewaters Localism &amp; mafia: news the @nntaleb crew will like: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/apr\/10\/mafia-distributes-food-to-italys-struggling-residents\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/apr\/10\/mafia-distributes-food-to-italys-struggling-residents <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/pierrewaters\/status\/1248951008711118850\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:28 AM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom &#8220;Some people are so foolish that they only get answers right when they misunderstand the question.&#8221; &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1248948425103638528\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:18 AM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@mikeharrisNY Their logic and yours is wrong. Because doors sometimes fail to stop thieves, does it mean we should not have doors? Is this what is proposed? Can someone be so dump? Apparently, yes. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/mikeharrisNY\/status\/1248898553608581122\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:59 AM &#8211; 11 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Rightwing sociopathic quacks like @BjornLomborg: are ALWAYS on the wrong side of things precautionary, (including climate). Saying &#8220;no worse than the flu&#8221; was ignorant 3 months ago; saying it after data from the past few weeks is outright malfeasance. @Twitter blocks fakenews. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BjornLomborg\/status\/1248666930313134083\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/BjornLomborg\/status\/1248666930313134083 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248748281838088193\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:02 PM &#8211; 10 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb From @RupertRead: states that Precautionary Principle applies ONLY to specific multiplicative things\/power law call with alpha&lt;2 Beware misinformaiton by frauds such as the rat @PTetlock &amp; shill @Dgardner making it look like undirected paranoia (Martians invading the planet).<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/yDKmdBOebW\"> pic.twitter.com\/yDKmdBOebW<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248691189467025413\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:15 PM &#8211; 10 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Very encouraging to see young Lebanese from all backgrounds attacking the shill #MarcelGhanem for making an antisemitic remark. Things have changed! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/firasmaksad\/status\/1248638888970727426\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/firasmaksad\/status\/1248638888970727426 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248685576162869248\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:53 AM &#8211; 10 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@yaneerbaryam Everyone must see!!! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/CGTNOfficial\/status\/1248234206582300673\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/CGTNOfficial\/status\/1248234206582300673 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1248678103456649216\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:23 AM &#8211; 10 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@BrankoMilan Indeed, after every seasonal flu, NYC does mass graves&#8230; How can people write such easily contradicted things is beyond me to understand. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BjornLomborg\/status\/1248666930313134083\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/BjornLomborg\/status\/1248666930313134083 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/BrankoMilan\/status\/1248667761636773890\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:42 AM &#8211; 10 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Many solutions, mostly @SrinivasR1729 This tidies the whole &#8220;ting&#8221;.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/bV6N71TcZj\"> pic.twitter.com\/bV6N71TcZj<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248667198211739648\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:40 AM &#8211; 10 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@eassily Hah ! @nntaleb and @byzantinepower would appreciate this<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/3U68wb9hXp\"> pic.twitter.com\/3U68wb9hXp<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/eassily\/status\/1248599273308119042\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:10 AM &#8211; 10 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Weekend distraction. By @SrinivasR1729<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/IStnXBEU2H\"> pic.twitter.com\/IStnXBEU2H<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248581906121318400\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:01 AM &#8211; 10 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The best part about this is that I can walk in the park without being asked for a selfie (or an autograph) by a graduate student in computer science at the local university. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/phl43\/status\/1246091194557509632\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/phl43\/status\/1246091194557509632 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248374243533996032\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:16 PM &#8211; 9 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Yes, office transmission is much much much more controlled than cross-geographical superspreaders. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1248339170810044417\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1248339170810044417 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248340318812061697\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:01 PM &#8211; 9 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Rest in Peace, real heroes. And criminal neglect by risk-blind &#8220;evidence based&#8221; bureaucrats. And, friends, in the meanwhile, wear a mask. Again, than you all the Dr Chowdhurys. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AamerAnwar\/status\/1248236912298676224\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/AamerAnwar\/status\/1248236912298676224 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248312088834998273\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:09 AM &#8211; 9 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Serious business (weight trainining): Friends (@GrantSSC &amp; others), how long, after a *true* 5RM or 1RM deadlift (meaning you can&#8217;t redo it right away), does it take to recover at 100% and redo it? 20 minutes? 4 hours? 3 days? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248287269846466560\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:30 AM &#8211; 9 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Fat tails. Reduce superspreaders. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pauld198\/status\/1243322026166636545\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/pauld198\/status\/1243322026166636545 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248279781591875586\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:01 AM &#8211; 9 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@cdipaola62 @Judgenap thoughts on prospect of class action lawsuits against hospitals\/health systems? Will the nurse\u2019s unions put pressure on in other ways? Interested in your opinion. @nntaleb @CalNurses @MassNurses <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ppe4medics\/status\/1248220605092179970\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ppe4medics\/status\/1248220605092179970 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/cdipaola62\/status\/1248225484518895617\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:25 AM &#8211; 9 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Most &#8220;evidence based&#8221; IYIs use statistical tools they don&#8217;t understand AND are deprived of the logical faculties of grandmothers, which explains the explosive blunders of @WHO, &#8220;science&#8221; journos, @CassSunstein, @R_Thaler, idiots like @PTetlock the rat, etc. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Amellal1490\/status\/1248211351232753664\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Amellal1490\/status\/1248211351232753664 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248221570511835138\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:09 AM &#8211; 9 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb FAT TAIL PROPERTY 90-98% of the diffusion can be reduced by limiting superspreaders &amp; forcing masks: + Subways\/buses + Conferences (especially involving psychologists\/behavioral economists) + Planes + Elevators + Bars with bad Negronis + Indoor restaurants\/caf\u00e9s Rest is normal. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/spwells\/status\/1248046032119713795\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/spwells\/status\/1248046032119713795 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1248048589181419520\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:42 PM &#8211; 8 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Statistically, you should see much more of this. The system imposes some #Skininthegame: those who inflict risks on others are subjected themselves to the same risks. As with Boris. Sad. <a href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2020\/04\/07\/pastor-who-criticized-coronavirus-mass-hysteria-dies-from-illness\/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&amp;utm_medium=site%20buttons&amp;utm_campaign=site%20buttons\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/nypost.com\/2020\/04\/07\/pastor-who-criticized-coronavirus-mass-hysteria-dies-from-illness\/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&amp;utm_medium=site%20buttons&amp;utm_campaign=site%20buttons <\/a>\u00a0 via @nypost <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1247988926134050819\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:45 PM &#8211; 8 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@mncube This is how @nntaleb trades <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/darrenrovell\/status\/1247933676874334208\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/darrenrovell\/status\/1247933676874334208 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/mncube\/status\/1247951670526578688\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:17 AM &#8211; 8 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb And Mr @david_perell if you need ancestry for my version of &#8220;skin in the game&#8221;, you don&#8217;t go up to Steve Jobs. Try harder and deeper into history: Hammurabi, &gt;3750 years ago. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1247951104853377025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:15 AM &#8211; 8 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Nice try, @david_perell He is using the term &#8220;skin in the game&#8221; as incentive not as risk asymmetry (be responsible for the harm you do). Try again. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/david_perell\/status\/1247922133784612864\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/david_perell\/status\/1247922133784612864 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1247950716716683265\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:13 AM &#8211; 8 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb PHILOLOGY DU JOUR February in Chr Aramaic is Shbat,\u072b\u0712\u0733\u071b, &#8220;blows&#8221; from &#8221; \u05e8\u05d5\u05d7 \u05e0\u05e9\u05d1\u05ea&#8221; (the wind blows, original Accadian \u0160ab\u0101tu) hence &#8220;windy month&#8221;. (Others were ~Babylonian gods). Remarkably the French Revolution renamed &#8220;Vent\u00f4se&#8221; (windy month) the span from Feb ~19-March 19. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1247886630276313089\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:58 AM &#8211; 8 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@mikeandallie Adding to the prior retweet to say that Nassim&#8217;s 2019 paper linked below plus the recent work of @ole_b_peters and @alex_adamou on ergodicity economics have been hugely influential to me not just in thinking about option pricing, but thinking about long-dated risk generally. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1247875980619898880\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1247875980619898880 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/mikeandallie\/status\/1247877806920515589\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:23 AM &#8211; 8 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb You did not need recent events to get that the mean-variance based methods, along with RISK PARITY used in finance (by many funds) are a fraud. I explained the details in #TheBlackSwan See paper how we (my friends &amp; I) price options under power laws. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/39149471\/Option_Pricing_Under_Power_Laws_A_Robust_Heuristic\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/39149471\/Option_Pricing_Under_Power_Laws_A_Robust_Heuristic <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/mHYZk0W0ok&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/mHYZk0W0ok <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1247875980619898880\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:16 AM &#8211; 8 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb In a hospital if you are dealing with patients. But in social life you don&#8217;t have the exposure and, critically, BOTH have masks. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ndehouche\/status\/1247561146829160453?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ndehouche\/status\/1247561146829160453?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1247856688578867200\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:59 AM &#8211; 8 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Asymmetry. Never bail out without clawback. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/premnsikka\/status\/1247646108144320513\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/premnsikka\/status\/1247646108144320513 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1247845009644228608\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:13 AM &#8211; 8 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I revealed it at the USJ lecture last November, from data from (among others) Toufic Gaspard (live on national TV). #RiadPonzi then launched a smear campaign. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU&amp;t=3960s\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=53uW9Xd_JRU&amp;t=3960s <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/loubnanouna1\/status\/1247840083631394817\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/loubnanouna1\/status\/1247840083631394817 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1247842665619750913\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:04 AM &#8211; 8 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@GMWatch Powerful condemnation of the UK govt&#8217;s failure to follow the #PrecautionaryPrinciple over #COVID19 \u2014 by UEA professor @RupertRead, who together with @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam @normonics &amp; others, has for months repeatedly been demanding precautionary action to save lives. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RupertRead\/status\/1247600027712647168\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/RupertRead\/status\/1247600027712647168 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/GMWatch\/status\/1247836959197757441\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:41 AM &#8211; 8 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 3)Other fallacy is by the *tradeoff idiots* who don&#8217;t get: a) even if governments did nothing, airplanes &amp; restaurants would be bust by now as # pple are doing bottom-up quarantines b)hospitals would be overwhelmed c)millions of young sick (many w\/permanent damage) d)+uncertainty <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1247686911856185347\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:45 PM &#8211; 7 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2) I meant don&#8217;t treat your parents the way you don&#8217;t want *your children* to treat you! Actually the &#8220;triage&#8221; (sacrificing the old) is a new European thing introduced in Italy; Roman society worshiped &amp; protected the elders. Same with Eastern societies. (Senatus=Sheikh=elder). <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1247680051551916033\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:17 PM &#8211; 7 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Aside from the pathetic modeling behind the &#8220;herd immunity&#8221;: it is morally repulsive. Civilization RESIDES in the enforcement of intergenerational golden (actuallly, silver rules): don&#8217;t treat your parents the way you don&#8217;t want them to treat you! From #SkinInTheGame #Incerto<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/fzB2W5kWpE\"> pic.twitter.com\/fzB2W5kWpE<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1247678302946541573\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:11 PM &#8211; 7 Apr 2020<\/p>\n<p>@spwells Spread of the Olive Tree in the Mediterranean Basin \u2066@PZalloua\u2069 \u2066@nntaleb\u2069 <a href=\"https:\/\/vividmaps.com\/olive-tree-in-the-mediterranean-bassin\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/vividmaps.com\/olive-tree-in-the-mediterranean-bassin\/ <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/spwells\/status\/1247591257716609025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:25 AM &#8211; 7 Apr 2020<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>From the Convexity of Masks to No-Convexity Ben | Youtube Published on Apr 24, 2020 + Why the crisiss was not a Black Swan. + Masks compound (even if primitive) + Convexity Ben misleads with his &#8220;hedges&#8221; Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases (pdf 4\/18\/2020) (Anti)Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicine (pdf 7\/31\/2018) The Pandemic Isn\u2019t [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,33],"tags":[1810,1794,1803,1808,1809,174,1577],"class_list":["post-9120","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","category-video","tag-astrology","tag-ioannidis","tag-masks","tag-oil","tag-russian-roulette","tag-summers","tag-tetlock"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9120","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9120"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9120\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9123,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9120\/revisions\/9123"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9120"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9120"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9120"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}