{"id":912,"date":"2010-04-12T16:39:45","date_gmt":"2010-04-12T23:39:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=912"},"modified":"2010-04-12T16:40:29","modified_gmt":"2010-04-12T23:40:29","slug":"econtalk-taleb-on-black-swans-2007","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2010\/04\/econtalk-taleb-on-black-swans-2007\/","title":{"rendered":"EconTalk &#8211; Taleb on Black Swans (2007)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Don&#8217;t know how I missed having this in here. NNT lists this as one of his favorite interviews as well.<br \/>From the highly addictive and always excellent <a title=\"EconTalk.org\" href=\"http:\/\/www.EconTalk.org\">EconTalk.org<\/a>. (iTunes subsrciption link <a title=\"econtalk at itunes\" href=\"http:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/econtalk\/id135066958\">here<\/a>. <a href=\"http:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/econtalk-archives-2007\/id279314489\">2007<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/econtalk-archives-2008\/id305422538\">2008<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/\" target=\"new\">Nassim Taleb<\/a> talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting  events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks  at investment, health, history and other areas where data play a key  role. Taleb, the author of <em>Fooled By Randomness<\/em> and <em>The Black  Swan<\/em>, imagines two countries, Mediocristan and Extremistan where the  ability to understand the past and predict the future is radically  different. In Mediocristan, events are generated by a underlying random  process that is normally distributed. These events are often physical  and observable and they tend to cluster around the middle. Most people  are near the average height and no adult is more than nine feet tall.  But in Extremistan, the right-hand tail of events is thick and long and  the outlier, the seemingly wildly unlikely event is more common than our  experience with Mediocristan would indicate. Bill Gates is more than a  little wealthier than the average. The civil war in Lebabon or the  events of 9\/11 were more worse than just a typical bad day in the Beirut  or New York City. Taleb&#8217;s contention is that we often bring our  intuition from Mediocristan for the events of Extremistan, leading us to  error. The result is a tendency to be blind-sided by the unexpected.<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"Russ Roberts interview with Nassim Taleb April 2007 \" href=\"http:\/\/files.libertyfund.org\/econtalk\/y2007\/Talebswan.mp3\">Play<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Don&#8217;t know how I missed having this in here. NNT lists this as one of his favorite interviews as well.From the highly addictive and always excellent EconTalk.org. (iTunes subsrciption link here. 2007 2008) Nassim Taleb talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks at investment, health, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,4,111],"tags":[112,17,15,19,88,18],"class_list":["post-912","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-audio","category-john","category-start-here","tag-econtalk","tag-extremistan","tag-mediocristan","tag-nassim-taleb","tag-russ-roberts","tag-the-black-swan"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/912","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=912"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/912\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":916,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/912\/revisions\/916"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=912"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=912"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=912"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}