{"id":9078,"date":"2019-12-19T13:08:20","date_gmt":"2019-12-19T21:08:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=9078"},"modified":"2019-12-19T13:19:03","modified_gmt":"2019-12-19T21:19:03","slug":"tetlock-propagandists-lebanon-indiaeconomicconclave-villages-pinker-tenure-jaccuse-riadponzi-bret-weinstein-localism-gmos-arabists-aramco-lebanon","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2019\/12\/tetlock-propagandists-lebanon-indiaeconomicconclave-villages-pinker-tenure-jaccuse-riadponzi-bret-weinstein-localism-gmos-arabists-aramco-lebanon\/","title":{"rendered":"Tetlock, Propagandists, Lebanon, #IndiaEconomicConclave, Villages, Pinker, TENURE, J&#8217;ACCUSE, #RiadPonzi, Bret Weinstein, #Localism, GMOs, Arabists, Aramco, Lebanon"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194599707588386816\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-9083 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/..\/media\/taleb20191113Beirut.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"660\" height=\"830\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/..\/media\/taleb20191113Beirut.jpg 660w, https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/..\/media\/taleb20191113Beirut-239x300.jpg 239w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 660px) 100vw, 660px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1907.11162.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">On the Statistical Differences between BinaryForecasts and Real World Payoffs<\/a> (pdf)<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/37221402\/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS [TECHNICAL INCERTO COLLECTION]<\/a><br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.realworldrisk.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Real World Risk Institute, LLC<\/a> &#8211; HOW TO MAKE DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1912.00277.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">EPISTEMOLOGY of PROBABILITY<\/a> (pdf)<br \/>\nThe Beirut Banyan <a href=\"https:\/\/soundcloud.com\/thebeirutbanyan\/episode-81-nassim-nicholas-taleb-local-structures-for-lebanon\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">EPISODE 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb &amp; Local Solutions for Lebanon<\/a> (audio, Soundcloud)<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/un9i-5pwOUA?rel=0&amp;iv_load_policy=3\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/53uW9Xd_JRU?rel=0&amp;iv_load_policy=3\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb BS Busting Showing how ~50 years of psychologists\/decisiontheoristas claims that people &#8220;irrationally&#8221; &#8220;overestimate tails&#8221; are unrigorous; how being a &#8220;good forecaster&#8221; means nothing,etc. Some (e.g. Phil the rat @PTetlock) won&#8217;t like it Full version at <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1907.11162.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1907.11162.pdf <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/STDMM5E1fT&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/STDMM5E1fT <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1207668328430526464\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:25 AM &#8211; 19 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom &#8220;Mediocre minds are outraged by small insults but passive, subdued, and silent in front of very large ones. &#8221; &#8211; From Bed of Procrustes. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1207639695724814336\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:31 AM &#8211; 19 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@mikeandallie (1\/2) I had a bit of a lucky start to my day today seeing this thread. Nassim&#8217;s solution &#8211; though a solution in a tweet! &#8211; is a terrific lesson for calculus students as it is a fantastic use of both the Fundamental Theorem of Calculus and also infinite series. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1207621312006574081\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1207621312006574081 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/mikeandallie\/status\/1207623399113216000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:27 AM &#8211; 19 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Corrected<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/LeBjHvSS0y\"> pic.twitter.com\/LeBjHvSS0y<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1207621312006574081\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:18 AM &#8211; 19 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Voila<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/8LkjS7O7oZ\"> pic.twitter.com\/8LkjS7O7oZ<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1207605559102455808\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:16 AM &#8211; 19 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb MATH PUZZLE DU JOUR. For my trip back from India.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/s9StRGpDZ3\"> pic.twitter.com\/s9StRGpDZ3<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1207437807955959811\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:09 PM &#8211; 18 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Modern dialects called &#8220;Arabic&#8221; do not descend from &#8220;Classical Arabic&#8221;, but both they and Fus7a share a common parent; Fus7a appears to be larely manufactured by a bunch of scholars. It is like mistaking your cousin for your grandfather. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/PhDniX\/status\/1207431607369502721\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/PhDniX\/status\/1207431607369502721 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1207435690830651395\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:01 PM &#8211; 18 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This is, scientifically, fraud. I mean, really fraud. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/WDavidHill\/status\/1206518159873851394\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/WDavidHill\/status\/1206518159873851394 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1207381621806174210\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:26 AM &#8211; 18 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Kids get that Antifragile = Convexity. Social scientists can&#8217;t get it. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MamanLunettes\/status\/1207378173106806786\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/MamanLunettes\/status\/1207378173106806786 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1207379717818585088\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:18 AM &#8211; 18 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb He did not get skin in the game. It is filtering. So many people discuss ideas from books they haven&#8217;t read. &#8212; h\/t @imleslahdin <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/balajis\/status\/1207319434957918209\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/balajis\/status\/1207319434957918209 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1207346322883383297\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:06 AM &#8211; 18 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@marco_m_alves Localism is not \u201cpeace on earth\u201d as it creates much more \u201cinconvenient\u2019 day to day (corruption is more visible, disputes are direct, etc). But it\u2019s the trade-off for avoiding system-wide collapse. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/marco_m_alves\/status\/1207198200110747648\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:17 PM &#8211; 17 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Granted! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Jed_Trott\/status\/1207011658884960258\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Jed_Trott\/status\/1207011658884960258 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1207017130601910274\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:18 AM &#8211; 17 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My former student is correct to bring me into line. Propagandists are unconditional in their support, never nuanced, even with the most eggregious actions. And thet are eventually caught. Like now. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Mo_Hrmz\/status\/1206972693737857024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Mo_Hrmz\/status\/1206972693737857024 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1206978846358040576\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:45 AM &#8211; 17 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb SPECULATIVE EAST-MED PHILOLOGY &#8220;Spice&#8221;, \u03bc\u03c0\u03b1\u03c7\u03b1\u03c1\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc (Bahariko) in Greek, \u0628\u0647\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a (Bharat) in Levantine (not so much in Classical Ar), and baharat in Turkish originate from the old name for India: Bharat. Simply, the Med had no spices, only herbs. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1206976740918095873\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:37 AM &#8211; 17 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@yzilber Confusion can help learning <a href=\"https:\/\/news.nd.edu\/news\/confusion-can-be-beneficial-for-learning-study\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/news.nd.edu\/news\/confusion-can-be-beneficial-for-learning-study\/ <\/a>\u00a0 @nntaleb will like this study (2012) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/yzilber\/status\/1206945903745130502\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:35 AM &#8211; 17 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The way to do it. <a href=\"https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/videos\/world\/2019\/12\/15\/lebanon-tax-strike-wedeman-pkg-vpx.cnn?fbclid=IwAR1kyuv87g2pke9Y17GSvXyAdRINMPBKAKzmqxoO2stzjUi8dyoxS5iHIyA\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/videos\/world\/2019\/12\/15\/lebanon-tax-strike-wedeman-pkg-vpx.cnn?fbclid=IwAR1kyuv87g2pke9Y17GSvXyAdRINMPBKAKzmqxoO2stzjUi8dyoxS5iHIyA <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1206934799018946560\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:50 AM &#8211; 17 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb How to rescale distances on PCA maps for genetics. @WolframResearch Mathematica Code with verification<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/cVfRKS0Y9Y\"> pic.twitter.com\/cVfRKS0Y9Y<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1206903612141494272\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:46 AM &#8211; 17 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I will give it a second look. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/paulportesi\/status\/1206713742030860288\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/paulportesi\/status\/1206713742030860288 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1206884321862307840\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:30 AM &#8211; 17 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@CCavafy \u201cBut most incomparable \/ of all, Antioch boasts that she\u2019s a city \/ that\u2019s been Greek since Ancient times\u201d \u2013 C.P. Cavafy, \u201cGreek Since Ancient Times\u201d, translated by @DAMendelsohnNYC #poetry #cavafy #Greece<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/8kuwmOY8ww\"> pic.twitter.com\/8kuwmOY8ww<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/CCavafy\/status\/1206560988402782208\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:05 AM &#8211; 16 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom &#8220;Being arrogant towards a fraudster in power = iconoclast. Being arrogant towards a regular person = psychologist.&#8221; &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1206560759716687872\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:04 AM &#8211; 16 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@yaneerbaryam New paper \u201cAn Introduction to Complex Systems Science and its Applications\u201d&#8211;\u201cassumes only a high school mathematical and scientific background, so that it may be accessible to &#8230; anyone who is interested in systems and society\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/necsi.edu\/an-introduction-to-complex-systems-science-and-its-applications\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/necsi.edu\/an-introduction-to-complex-systems-science-and-its-applications <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1206555835335368704\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:45 AM &#8211; 16 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom &#8220;The best researcher is the one who hates academia, the best politician the one who hates politics, best bureaucrat one who hates bureaucracy.&#8221; &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb #bureaucracy <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1206255202434727937\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:50 AM &#8211; 15 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb These pseudo-analysts don&#8217;t get it. The majority of French &amp; British voters had a yuuuugely favorable opinion about De Gaulle &amp; Churchill respectively but still voted them out of office right after the war ended. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mashabani\/status\/1203316176740327427\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/mashabani\/status\/1203316176740327427 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1206187295633592321\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:20 AM &#8211; 15 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb If you hear &#8220;X is incompetent in spite of &#8220;elite&#8221; education&#8221;, you should interpret as &#8220;X is incompetent *because* of &#8220;elite&#8221; education&#8221; (Wittgenstein&#8217;s Ruler) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rorysutherland\/status\/1206181699765309441\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/rorysutherland\/status\/1206181699765309441 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1206186300090400769\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:16 AM &#8211; 15 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@Nvdwaa Rereading antifragile, my 1st encounter with @nntaleb after about 4years. Discovering depth I missed\/ didn&#8217;t appreciate 1st time around. Amazing, life-changing stuff.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/BVzeRvhXSC\"> pic.twitter.com\/BVzeRvhXSC<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/Nvdwaa\/status\/1205896997212954626\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:07 AM &#8211; 14 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@mikeandallie [correcting bad link] Exploring Markov chains and Martingales with kids &#8211; a project inspired by @gregeganSF @nntaleb and @octonion <a href=\"https:\/\/mikesmathpage.wordpress.com\/2019\/12\/14\/33355\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/mikesmathpage.wordpress.com\/2019\/12\/14\/33355\/ <\/a>\u00a0 #math #mathchat <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/mikeandallie\/status\/1205862701802696704\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:50 AM &#8211; 14 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb His wife left him. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/geoffdporter\/status\/1205848006089695233\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/geoffdporter\/status\/1205848006089695233 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1205849418454450178\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:57 AM &#8211; 14 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Bad way to visualize information, in the absence of scaling\/size. If Rome\/Papal States, Istanbul, Beirut were countries, They too&#8230; The web teaches people to become fools a la social scientists. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/arcgreek\/status\/1205500038706802691\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/arcgreek\/status\/1205500038706802691 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1205835082054979585\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:01 AM &#8211; 14 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Brutal honesty and intolerance to BS brings new friends. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/paulportesi\/status\/1205616820612292608\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/paulportesi\/status\/1205616820612292608 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1205825899238588417\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:24 AM &#8211; 14 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Decorators design to impress other decorators. In the MEA lounge, the electric plugs are out of reach, low on the ground, with the cover opening upwards ; impossible to plug the charger unless you lie on the floor. @skyteam please tell these idiots. #SkinintheGame<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/mBlfV1TyZo\"> pic.twitter.com\/mBlfV1TyZo<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1205804062505082880\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:57 AM &#8211; 14 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@DavidGibbons &#8220;Every plane crash makes the next one less likely, every bank crash makes the next one more likely.&#8221; From Antifragile. Maybe my favorite @nntaleb quote &#8211; certainly a most important insight. We have built antifragile things but banking is not one of them. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/DavidGibbons\/status\/1205777627509862400\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:12 AM &#8211; 14 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@LieraMarco Will he ever invite real people (i.e. plumbers, taxi drivers, accountants, etc.) to speak at the @wef in Davos? @nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/schuldensuehner\/status\/1205099302676291585\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/schuldensuehner\/status\/1205099302676291585 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/LieraMarco\/status\/1205109030252924928\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:55 AM &#8211; 12 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@ETNOWlive Tell us what is the #Nifty return this decade in the comments section and get a chance to win a signed copy of the latest books by @MarkMobiusReal, @SadhguruJV, and @nntaleb. #IndiaEconomicConclave #IEC #quiz #IEC2019<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/AOKkXnSqpn\"> pic.twitter.com\/AOKkXnSqpn<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/ETNOWlive\/status\/1205041856796430336\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:29 AM &#8211; 12 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Liars announce that they are saying the &#8220;truth&#8221;, without anyone asking them; shills claim they are promoting it. (Remember that &#8220;Pravda&#8221;, the Soviet organ, meant &#8220;truth&#8221;)<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/irpjNgra7g\"> pic.twitter.com\/irpjNgra7g<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204890455013568513\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:27 PM &#8211; 11 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Auditing Mathematica&#8217;s conventions<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/5Qfdh2olcg\"> pic.twitter.com\/5Qfdh2olcg<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204885443566882817\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:07 PM &#8211; 11 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Which explains why there cannot be such a thing as a global village: you build stronger bonds by meeting one person 5 times than by meeting 5 persons once.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/7zO4MQwyUl\"> pic.twitter.com\/7zO4MQwyUl<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204870078354927621\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:06 PM &#8211; 11 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2) Do you live in a village? Simple trick: how many familiar faces do you encounter daily in your surroundings? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204856901986607105\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:14 PM &#8211; 11 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb EAST MED PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Karagoz\/Karakoz in Lebanese <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/KBBlack_\/status\/1204834468822949888\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/KBBlack_\/status\/1204834468822949888 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204854521144459266\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:04 PM &#8211; 11 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I never live in cities. Only villages. #localism <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/vtchakarova\/status\/1204675247879929856\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/vtchakarova\/status\/1204675247879929856 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204827396999929857\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:16 AM &#8211; 11 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Another person I thought was revealing truths turns out to be a shill. Disgusting. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/veravanhorne\/status\/1204771551511547905\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/veravanhorne\/status\/1204771551511547905 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204772239612239873\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:37 AM &#8211; 11 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Turns out that what I called the &#8220;Karamata point&#8221; and the &#8220;Karamata Constant&#8221;, while obvious, didn&#8217;t have a name. Was told Kara-mata was &#8220;black eyed&#8221; in Ottoman Greek (Kara black in Turkish, Matis eyes in Turko-Greek)<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/Y0s26R7It0\"> pic.twitter.com\/Y0s26R7It0<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204572484026155009\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:23 PM &#8211; 10 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Presented 3 short papers. Turns out this result (and 2 others) are unknown.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/KrZOzlxfWr\"> pic.twitter.com\/KrZOzlxfWr<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204571048152371200\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:18 PM &#8211; 10 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb #Antifragile The &#8216;slow earthquakes&#8217; that we cannot feel may help protect against the devastating ones <a href=\"https:\/\/phys.org\/news\/2019-12-earthquakes-devastating.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/phys.org\/news\/2019-12-earthquakes-devastating.html <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204567048979959809\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:02 PM &#8211; 10 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@mikeandallie (3\/3) I learned these ideas thanks to @nntaleb and @octonion when they were discussing another famous &#8220;word&#8221; problem &#8211; the COVFEFE problem in 2017: <a href=\"https:\/\/mikesmathpage.wordpress.com\/2017\/12\/11\/the-most-interesting-piece-of-math-i-learned-in-2017-the-covfefe-problem\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/mikesmathpage.wordpress.com\/2017\/12\/11\/the-most-interesting-piece-of-math-i-learned-in-2017-the-covfefe-problem\/ <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/mikeandallie\/status\/1204544118514487302\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:31 PM &#8211; 10 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Eindhoven Workshop on Heavy Tails, with the usual suspects <a href=\"https:\/\/www.eurandom.tue.nl\/event\/workshop-heavy-tails-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.eurandom.tue.nl\/event\/workshop-heavy-tails-2\/ <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204353488068628481\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:53 AM &#8211; 10 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@LaurentMartinez Sometimes you\u2019re so obnoxious that I\u2019m really considering muting you. But you so don\u2019t give a f**** and are so uncompromising with (mostly) insufferable a-holes, that I have to admit it makes you a rare and valuable occurrence in this world. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/LaurentMartinez\/status\/1204336888078729222\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:47 AM &#8211; 10 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Pinker is not aware that he is promoting my own work: one of the books is plagiarism of the ##Incerto <a href=\"https:\/\/fooledbyrandomness.com\/dobelli.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/fooledbyrandomness.com\/dobelli.htm <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1204127384817033216\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1204127384817033216 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204333632627847169\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:34 AM &#8211; 10 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Disagreement: #Lindy requires nonperishability but not all nonperishable is #lindy (nonperishable can be memoryless, with constant expected remaining life). Lindy = power law NonPerishable usually exponential. @ProfSteveFuller Here formalizing Lindy <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1146214203574968322?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1146214203574968322?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ProfSteveFuller\/status\/1199595280565440512\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ProfSteveFuller\/status\/1199595280565440512 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204133863435448320\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:20 PM &#8211; 9 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Trying to define RIGOROUSLY what is and what is not Racism in PRINCIPIA, away from the verbalistic. Some surprising results. For comments<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/qTNU63hPW5\"> pic.twitter.com\/qTNU63hPW5<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204131780955136004\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:12 PM &#8211; 9 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The saying &#8220;lniqua numquam regna perpetuo manent&#8221; gives me hope. #Lindy #LebanonProtests #IraqiProtests, etc. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204121800717799425\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:33 AM &#8211; 9 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb TENURE IS A TRAP After 30 y tenure in a pseudoscience w\/citation ring (socialscience),pple can&#8217;t do anything in the real world Unskilled Labor! If Universities can&#8217;t take away your tenure, they can make your life miserable,as w\/bigot @erasmuse. Like the brother in #Antifragile <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198329665078857729\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198329665078857729 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1204001473056690176\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:34 AM &#8211; 9 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom &#8220;There is no more unmistakable sign of failure than that of a middle-aged man boasting of his successes in college.&#8221; &#8211; @nntaleb <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1203877972777799680\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:24 PM &#8211; 8 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Probability Proof Du Jour From the &#8220;Competitive Mathematics&#8221; FB page<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/gqI3BPTE7q\"> pic.twitter.com\/gqI3BPTE7q<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203797604364177408\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:04 PM &#8211; 8 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb More confusion: Mathematica has two techniques. Dot product for normalized vectors is same as covariance (hence 3 and 1 are same). Which method is used?<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/R9ZulSWR8C\"> pic.twitter.com\/R9ZulSWR8C<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203790712367697920\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:37 PM &#8211; 8 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Note that I blocked people who polluted the thread <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203735699939299328\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:58 AM &#8211; 8 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Friends, some help. I have a question about conventions with PCA maps.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/8KxAbkkDwa\"> pic.twitter.com\/8KxAbkkDwa<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203730627599704069\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:38 AM &#8211; 8 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@imleslahdin Why I&#8217;m excited about Technical Incerto. Understanding tails &amp; &#8220;shadow moments&#8221; is crucial in when your algorithm relies on randomness, which is the BEST way we have for the hardest problems ever (NP-problems). I&#8217;m not even talking about big data &amp; ML\/AI (go to #RWRI for that). <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203294669117022208\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203294669117022208 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/kEA0VxgxRf&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/kEA0VxgxRf <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/imleslahdin\/status\/1203723494330007552\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:10 AM &#8211; 8 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb SEMITIC PHILOLOGY DUJOUR Learned that just as the Latin hard &#8220;c&#8221; becomes a soft affricate \/t\u0361\u0283\/ in Italian (Ciao), in S Mesopotamian dialect \u0643 becomes \u062a\u0634 Other shifts:\u0642 hard g in Muslim (vs Jewish\/Christian) Bagdadi (qeltu vs gilit group)&amp; \u0621 in Levant <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/tv\/B5pvFhjHbZL\/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/tv\/B5pvFhjHbZL\/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/DR0BlbACVt&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/DR0BlbACVt <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203689033567789056\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:53 AM &#8211; 8 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@JT_ZLC I am suggesting a minor change to the front cover.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/93hzaGcN7g\"> pic.twitter.com\/93hzaGcN7g<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/JT_ZLC\/status\/1203685540572389381\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:39 AM &#8211; 8 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Almost. The statistical version of the asymmetry: to confirm safety (trader didn&#8217;t blowup), n =1000 could be insufficient, to disconfirm safety, n=1 (trader blewup) is sufficient. My technical version of the asymmetry is by examining the Law of Large Numbers under fat tails. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sunnyrekhi\/status\/1203505476958220290\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/sunnyrekhi\/status\/1203505476958220290 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203648328925360128\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:11 AM &#8211; 8 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@JonathanShedler This is why &#8220;evidence based therapy&#8221; research always seems to involve treatments most people don&#8217;t want and most practitioners don&#8217;t practice. Research designed to impress journal reviewers and grant reviewers, not provide what patients need. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1203128659806171138\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1203128659806171138 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/JonathanShedler\/status\/1203454789742252032\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:22 PM &#8211; 7 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb J&#8217;ACCUSE Depositors in #LEBANON being stiffed! 1-Payment to Eurobond holders, NOT to depositors, &amp; Not enough $$ for fuel imports 2-Depositors should OWN the banks since default! 3- #RiadPonzi is in denial, must be replaced\/supervised Must suspend CEDRE! @Jad_Ghosn @EHSANI22 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203341313250398210\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:51 AM &#8211; 7 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS, Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications (Technical Incerto, I) is done. My 7th book. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/37221402\/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/37221402\/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ <\/a>\u00a0 Should be available in hard copy first Q 2020<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/J8cioGrEw8&#8243;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/J8cioGrEw8 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203294669117022208\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:46 AM &#8211; 7 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Make Lebanon Med Again! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Extrachelle\/status\/1203280222642221057\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Extrachelle\/status\/1203280222642221057 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203287671285702656\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:18 AM &#8211; 7 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The eugenics crowd has been after since the when I showed the IQ thingy to be a fraud. You can tell at the reactions of a bunch of people. <a href=\"https:\/\/link.medium.com\/ehxNGI2Zc2\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/link.medium.com\/ehxNGI2Zc2 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203075634370625536\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:15 PM &#8211; 6 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Time to do my \u201ctold you so\u201d. You guys are 1 year too late. @Clairlemon et al are nothing but a cover for eugenics. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/rvawonk\/status\/1202719842605903872\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/rvawonk\/status\/1202719842605903872 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203073677253853185\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:08 PM &#8211; 6 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The true left gets it. Democrats are getting Donaldo relected. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ggreenwald\/status\/1202977556292624386\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ggreenwald\/status\/1202977556292624386 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203071590155599874\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:59 PM &#8211; 6 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The nightmare <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/brianabeythomas\/status\/1202964879067336709\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/brianabeythomas\/status\/1202964879067336709 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1203014776923799554\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:14 AM &#8211; 6 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Thread on Ergodicity &amp; @ole_b_peters work 1) If you optimize on multiperiod payoffs you avoid an absorbing state(0), because multiplicative. ANY such optimization will avoid absorption, not just LOG 2) Growth is a nice summary parameter. 3) Avoiding absorption does same. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202963125340954625\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:48 AM &#8211; 6 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb [For those who don&#8217;t get it: the point is that some friends are worse than enemies] <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202934298539708416\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:54 AM &#8211; 6 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb DISCUSSION Friends, the M5 competition (@spyrosmakrid ) is about inventory prediction using ML or other. I suggested predicting maxima &amp; minima on top of the usual. While extrema are useful in trading (&#8220;never cross a river that&#8217;s on ave 4f deep&#8221;), are they with inventories? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202930068500164610\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:37 AM &#8211; 6 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@bmiloy Attending one of these exposes and clears a lot of BS from your thinking. You think you understood the Incerto, maybe even read it a few times, and then you attend and discover that you were missing something essential. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202700539886260246\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202700539886260246 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/bmiloy\/status\/1202747761109520384\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:33 PM &#8211; 5 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb What you see and what you don&#8217;t see: The hidden moments for a probability distribution. The Lucretius problem in #TheBlackSwan. (Turns out explicit result below is new.) Inspired by a mistake made by that idiot @WGoetzmann (who sees #TheBlackSwan as an &#8220;airport book&#8221;) .<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/IRU9nlgkNa\"> pic.twitter.com\/IRU9nlgkNa<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202725312615927814\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:03 PM &#8211; 5 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Friends, we gave in. Thanks to @Firsou we have a new #RWRI website <a href=\"http:\/\/www.realworldrisk.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">http:\/\/www.realworldrisk.com <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202700539886260246\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:25 PM &#8211; 5 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Clive James, RIP My notes on his book *Cultural Amnesia*<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/Z8dcT5RjSy\"> pic.twitter.com\/Z8dcT5RjSy<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202686144548397059\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:28 PM &#8211; 5 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb With friends like me you are guaranteed to never need a single enemy. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/spyrosmakrid\/status\/1202574156971331585\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/spyrosmakrid\/status\/1202574156971331585 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202655770317402113\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:27 AM &#8211; 5 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@aleksndr_r \u201cA book review can be far more descriptive of the reviewer than the book itself.\u201d \u2014@nntaleb That you can learn as much about the source of information as its object is one of the most helpful principles I\u2019ve come across recently. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/aleksndr_r\/status\/1202643633473671169\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:39 AM &#8211; 5 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@CIELivestock1 Raffael Zanoli @UnivPoliMarche tells @iSAGE_H2020 #sheep industry mtg in #Wetherby of @nntaleb concept of #antifragility. Beyond #resilience, resulting from challenges in the environment making you more #robust to future challenges. Applies in #farming AND #marketing!<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/HuSPXRRO3v\"> pic.twitter.com\/HuSPXRRO3v<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/CIELivestock1\/status\/1202640047662649344\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:25 AM &#8211; 5 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb #RiadPonzi has reigned over 7 prime ministers, 4 presidents, a dozen finance ministers. If a single person is the perpetrator, it is him. He is the cancer. PS Riad, your \u201cfriends\u201d\u2019s smear campaign against me is equivalent to draining the Mediterranean with a teaspoon. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ehsani22\/status\/1202594727444520966\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ehsani22\/status\/1202594727444520966 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202602974800801792\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:57 AM &#8211; 5 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I will be involved in this project with a formal status as &#8220;friend&#8221;. Hopefully expand it to &#8220;The Great East-Med (Graeco-Phoenician) BS-debunking School of Statistics&#8221;. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/spyrosmakrid\/status\/1202527792027574273\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/spyrosmakrid\/status\/1202527792027574273 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202569722954428423\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:45 AM &#8211; 5 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb When you encounter Pinker style careerism, remember the following. A book (or a work of scholarship) is something that is read 25 years after publication. What happens in the 25 years doesn&#8217;t count. The rest is a combination of noise, promotion, hype &amp; resum\u00e9 building. #Lindy <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202563014630805510\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:18 AM &#8211; 5 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@spyrosmakrid At the Institute For the Future (IFF), University of Nicosia we have founded the MOFC (The Makridakis Open Forecasting Center). Its purpose to Advance the Theory and Practice of Forecasting through competitions, conferences, publications and forecasting courses. @polemitis<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/zBGMuGK8D2\"> pic.twitter.com\/zBGMuGK8D2<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/spyrosmakrid\/status\/1202527792027574273\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:59 AM &#8211; 5 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@BDufournet My wife and I had the same idea for Christmas for each other&#8230; @nntaleb\u2019s masterpiece in the deluxe edition! Received today. A very nice present.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/44yvVZFWcU\"> pic.twitter.com\/44yvVZFWcU<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/BDufournet\/status\/1202360301477347333\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:53 PM &#8211; 4 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb By free I mean morally free, free to be ethical <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/the-skin-of-others-in-your-game-3f51d8ccc3fb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/the-skin-of-others-in-your-game-3f51d8ccc3fb <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202346578746454016\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:58 PM &#8211; 4 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Yes! James Scott! <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202253546751758336\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:49 AM &#8211; 4 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb When you ask the facilitator of a Ponzi scheme to fix the Ponzi. Salame needs adult supervision. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/adibchristian\/status\/1202233307729018880\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/adibchristian\/status\/1202233307729018880 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202242307182997504\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:04 AM &#8211; 4 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 1) The judgment of the free is the only one that counts. The rest has some element of propaganda. 2) Very, very few people are free. 3) In general, the more prominent the person, the less free. The janitor is freer than the politician\/CEO. 4) Purity requires freedom. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202235138337394688\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:36 AM &#8211; 4 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@OrtolanMagazine This is insanely fucked up and people aren\u2019t talking about it enough at all #crispr #china #gmo @nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/science\/2019\/dec\/04\/china-gene-edited-baby-experiment-may-have-created-unintended-mutations\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/science\/2019\/dec\/04\/china-gene-edited-baby-experiment-may-have-created-unintended-mutations <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/OrtolanMagazine\/status\/1202223075548221440\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:48 AM &#8211; 4 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Aside from BS Vendor extraordinaire @saPinker misrepresenting his own claims (see other posts), @DrCirillo &amp; I have shown that interarrival times betw. large wars &gt;100 y hence 1) his claim on post WW2 is statistical noise 2) he doesn&#8217;t get what statistical noise means #BSVendor <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201603375365836804\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201603375365836804 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202214070520352768\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:12 AM &#8211; 4 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb EPISTEMOLOGY of PROBABILITY Latest with @DrCirillo now on ArXiv <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1912.00277.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1912.00277.pdf <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/84RBISEmiz&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/84RBISEmiz <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202198289090789381\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:09 AM &#8211; 4 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom &#8220;Anyone who likes meetings should be banned from attending meetings.&#8221; &#8211; @nntaleb <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1202141471392124928\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:23 AM &#8211; 4 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb What drinking with @EmanuelDerman looks like. And that\u2019s before the drift into Spinoza. #OnlyinNewYork<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/bvLLy9P5fh\"> pic.twitter.com\/bvLLy9P5fh<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1202019420169736192\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:18 PM &#8211; 3 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Wealth Inequality Among Snails <a href=\"https:\/\/www.improbable.com\/2019\/10\/02\/wealth-inequality-among-snails\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.improbable.com\/2019\/10\/02\/wealth-inequality-among-snails\/ <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201976014106234880\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:26 PM &#8211; 3 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb FAT TONYISM More effective &amp; less risky to improve food distribution than produce GMOs\/GoldenRice (food costs=60-94% distrib\/decay), but not to *scientism*merchants It costs millions to make train rides more pleasant, billions to make trains just a bit faster, but not to&#8230; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201869302409945091\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:22 AM &#8211; 3 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@Prof_BearB I think someone proposed it. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201603375365836804\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201603375365836804 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/iE4zEmoon1&#8243;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/iE4zEmoon1 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/Prof_BearB\/status\/1201868647834230784\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:19 AM &#8211; 3 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb EPISODE 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb &amp; Local Solutions for Lebanon <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/sGcyA0yB4nY\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/youtu.be\/sGcyA0yB4nY <\/a>\u00a0 via @YouTube <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201862560456347648\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:55 AM &#8211; 3 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The bullshitter still doesn\u2019t get that BOTH claims have been debunked plus his shoddy statistical claims! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201603375365836804\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201603375365836804 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201620620116672514\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:54 PM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@DrCirillo Another sophistry. As usual. Given that what he claimed has been shown not to hold, he tries to change his claim ex post. Verba volant, scripta manent. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201603375365836804\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201603375365836804 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/DrCirillo\/status\/1201615163121709057\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:32 PM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The end of Behavioral Economics <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ole_b_peters\/status\/1201547183079772160\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ole_b_peters\/status\/1201547183079772160 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201593545758560257\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:06 PM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@sean_a_mcclure The general public gets swept up in the labeling of others as \u201canti-science\u201d without understanding how science actually works. The willing and able are now stepping forward to call BS and set the record straight. I can\u2019t think of a better service to society. #science <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201458485961117698\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201458485961117698 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/sean_a_mcclure\/status\/1201564770400440321\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:12 AM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@NonMeek Today&#8217;s #Offshorecomic. \u201cStatistics is a BS detector, not a BS generator.\u201d \/ inspired by @nntaleb &amp; #RWRI For more visit <a href=\"https:\/\/buff.ly\/2FtBAIE\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/buff.ly\/2FtBAIE <\/a>\u00a0 Offshore books <a href=\"https:\/\/buff.ly\/32k8OVz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/buff.ly\/32k8OVz <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/Yii889CrUQ&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/Yii889CrUQ <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/NonMeek\/status\/1201549858047451137\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:13 AM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The president, cabinet, central bankers &amp; bankers should be locked 24\/7 in a war room\/control center discussing options &amp; working hard instead of engaging in courtesy meetings &amp; focusing on shooting messengers. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dailystar.com.lb\/\/News\/Lebanon-News\/2019\/Dec-02\/496664-aoun-calls-for-prosecution-of-those-who-spread-bad-publicity-about-national-currency.ashx#.XeU7R5tCwxM.twitter\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">http:\/\/www.dailystar.com.lb\/\/News\/Lebanon-News\/2019\/Dec-02\/496664-aoun-calls-for-prosecution-of-those-who-spread-bad-publicity-about-national-currency.ashx#.XeU7R5tCwxM.twitter <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201538897362276353\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:29 AM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@Firefly_fan Do you know Nassim that every smear campaign (the one that you suffer too) of Monsanto et al about Golden Rice is based (ENTIRELY) on a fallacy? <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC6760066\/pdf\/12992_2019_Article_495.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC6760066\/pdf\/12992_2019_Article_495.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Table 1. &#8220;Misleading Summaries&#8221; subgroup &#8220;Absence of evidence as evidence of absence&#8221;. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/Firefly_fan\/status\/1201517397745848321\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:04 AM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The author of the article on golden rice used by @sapinker was running a bank that blew up spectacularly; asking him for advice on tail risk is like putting a drunk driver (while drunk) to monitor road safety. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1201504177286983685?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1201504177286983685?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201513377274744832\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:48 AM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Sorry, error: I carelessly mistook @mona_harb_ (who tried -and failed\u2014 to dump on me) for @mona_fawaz. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201485216931434498\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:56 AM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@normonics I didbn&#8217;t even catch that this is via @quillette. of course. They know the best genes for humans to have AND know the best genes for plants to have eugenics quillette. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201345723981160448\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201345723981160448 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1201480522452676608\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:37 AM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@normonics Same language as last time, copied off a PR sheet I guess Soulless @sapinker Steven Pinker again smears those scientific doubt and reasonable concern for risk, uses the image of dying children to push his agenda <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201345723981160448\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201345723981160448 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1201478539570274304\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:29 AM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb #Localism implies opposition to US interventionism in world affairs (Syrian &#8220;rebels&#8221;, Saudi Barbaria-Yemen, etc.) It does not mean supporting interventionism by OTHER regimes. Most shills &amp; low-intellect propagandists promote false dichotomies:&#8221;if not green, it must be pink&#8221;. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201476822753579011\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:22 AM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Although activist @mona_fawaz has tried to dump on me (&amp; got ran over),I MUST fight for her against the smear campaign by fascist propagandists that she&#8217;s a &#8220;foreign agent&#8221; #localists want to run their own lives, not be trapped into US-Iran-Israel-SA globalism #Skininthegame <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201471037650690049\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:59 AM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb If you ask what pple in #Lebanon want: basic amenities, jobs, education, clean water, transportation, power, etc. #Localism. Not geopolitics US-Iran-Israel-SaudiArabia. Fascists Khalek et al are shilling ag a technocratic government on grounds that it won&#8217;t globalize. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201462710963183616\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:26 AM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb RISK MANAGEMENT 101 we teach students: What @sapinker says is 1) wrong, 2) dangerous, 3) unrigorous &amp; primitive *scientism*, with probability approaching 1. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201345723981160448\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1201345723981160448 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/gb53Lao2u3&#8243;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/gb53Lao2u3 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201458485961117698\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:09 AM &#8211; 2 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@yaneerbaryam The idea that Golden Rice is a useful or necessary solution to nutrition problems does not recognize many alternatives and does not include an understanding of risk. This is a terribly misguided and unscientific frame of reference. @nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/necsi.edu\/precautionary-principle\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/necsi.edu\/precautionary-principle <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/1201347960933629953\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:50 PM &#8211; 1 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@mikeandallie (1\/2) Sharing some of @nntaleb &#8216;s ideas about probability distributions with kids <a href=\"https:\/\/mikesmathpage.wordpress.com\/2019\/12\/01\/sharing-some-of-nassim-talebs-ideas-about-probability-distributions-with-kids\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/mikesmathpage.wordpress.com\/2019\/12\/01\/sharing-some-of-nassim-talebs-ideas-about-probability-distributions-with-kids\/ <\/a>\u00a0 #math #mathchat <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/mikeandallie\/status\/1201186137718579201\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:07 AM &#8211; 1 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb @dan_azzi <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201163499449266176\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:37 AM &#8211; 1 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb @JadChaaban is also a target of the smear campaign. I can hire someone to identify the source. After the Monsanto episode we got to know exactly how these are done. Also easy to sue people involved in the story in NY or LDN if they cover up for losses. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JadChaaban\/status\/1200863656843661313?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/JadChaaban\/status\/1200863656843661313?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201152905467908097\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:55 AM &#8211; 1 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@digvijoy_c Someone wrote: &#8220;Dear Mr Taleb, I like your work but I feel compelled to give you a piece of advice. An intellectual like you would greatly gain in influence if he avoided using foul language.&#8221; Answer: &#8220;Fuck off.&#8221; From @nntaleb facebook page. Holiday season gold from Nassim. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/digvijoy_c\/status\/1201142766706872322\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:15 AM &#8211; 1 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Also there are mechanisms to sue Global Finance magazine for giving awards to #RiadPonzi, give naive investors &amp; savers a false feeling of security. Also we need @petelx60 to help us investigate how @LebAmUniv gave him an award (before his days). <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201136538148638720\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:50 AM &#8211; 1 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Signs both #RiadPonzi &amp; Bankers Assoc. hired 2 PR firms to whitewash their image\/smear critics including @dan_azz, @Nasser_Saidi. Not successful in the West (nobody is stupid) but # circulating videos in Lebanon. Some shills: @jassemajaka cc:@Jad_Ghosn #lebanonprotest <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201128353220251655\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:18 AM &#8211; 1 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb At the &#8220;meeting&#8221;, #RiadPonzi exhibited a lack of financial proficiency. He said &#8220;We issued CDs at 6%, they are now at 20%, so we have profits.&#8221; Imagine a CEO saying: we issued bonds\/stocks, their value collapsed, we make yuuge profits if we bought them back 50% lower! <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201123221405351937\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:57 AM &#8211; 1 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb RETROSPECTIVE BIGOTEERING 1) no law is retrospective 2) you cannot blame people of a violation of a moral rule (or law) if they could not be possibly aware of such a rule, if such rule came AFTER their actions. This is similar to the retrospective distortion in #TheBlackSwan. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201117609833455621\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:35 AM &#8211; 1 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Scale analysis is not mine, elaborated by many many scientists. My contribution is the link between nonlinearity of response, scale, stability and, mostly, the probabilistic implications. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ektrit\/status\/1201115448529563648\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ektrit\/status\/1201115448529563648 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1201116569100836864\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:31 AM &#8211; 1 Dec 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb <a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/MHDcn8tLex\"> pic.twitter.com\/MHDcn8tLex<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200952047983636480\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:37 PM &#8211; 30 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom &#8220;Libertarianism is about replacing authority with laws (legal systems, courts). Hard sciences (math, physics) obey laws, bullshit disciplines (psychology, history, sociology) obey authority. In the absence of #skininthegame, authority evolves to BS. In anything.&#8221; &#8211; @nntaleb <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1200929730016555010\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:08 PM &#8211; 30 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb An instance of retrospective bigoteering. Soon he will go after The Hamurabi code. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Principia_Politica\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Principia_Politica <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/inertialobservr\/status\/1200642160648835072\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/inertialobservr\/status\/1200642160648835072 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200913604524101632\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:04 PM &#8211; 30 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Most people scientists, academics, journalists &amp; other BS vendorss write, talk about, &amp; make claims about what they know. My specialty (Incerto &amp; Technical Incerto) is to show what we don&#8217;t know. I stand current approaches to knowledge on their head. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200798073884233728\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200798073884233728 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200884681656418304\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:09 PM &#8211; 30 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Corrected. @birdxi1988<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/HJ96ZBuUvX\"> pic.twitter.com\/HJ96ZBuUvX<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200868323535335427\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:04 PM &#8211; 30 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I am wrong <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200833886370045953\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:48 AM &#8211; 30 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb New picture. Need to change every decade. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200820473103339522\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:54 AM &#8211; 30 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb They reposted the conversation without the edits. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/beirut_banyan\/status\/1200038885125951490\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/beirut_banyan\/status\/1200038885125951490 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200819094053965825\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:49 AM &#8211; 30 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb What you see and what you don&#8217;t see:The hidden moments for a probability distribution. What we called shadow mean in paper with @DrCirillo<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/rnRBU9YwKn\"> pic.twitter.com\/rnRBU9YwKn<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200798073884233728\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:25 AM &#8211; 30 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb By depositors I mean small depositors who put their life savings in the hands of #RiadPonzi <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200514208485576704\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:37 PM &#8211; 29 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I boycott @LOrientLeJour but Triangle have been extremely good at exposing the Ponzi scheme <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/think_triangle\/status\/1200334111820460032\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/think_triangle\/status\/1200334111820460032 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200479813158486016\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:21 AM &#8211; 29 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@idrissaberkane Il y a des gens qui sont pr\u00eats \u00e0 se cr\u00e9er six comptes pour troller @nntaleb mais vraiment twitter est devenu compl\u00e8tement fou<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/Bd6R3KvnKE\"> pic.twitter.com\/Bd6R3KvnKE<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/idrissaberkane\/status\/1200451176443121672\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:27 AM &#8211; 29 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Le @dr_l_alexandre est un charlatan. Aucune etude genetique s\u00e9rieuse sur le sujet. Du bidon. Voir <a href=\"https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/39797871\/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/39797871\/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_ <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ripamontialbert\/status\/1200129226269233152\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Ripamontialbert\/status\/1200129226269233152 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200428796098334720\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:58 AM &#8211; 29 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This is the classical question: &#8220;Where are the Customer&#8217;s Yachts?&#8221; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200418495806234625\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:17 AM &#8211; 29 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb A meeting in the Presidential Palace includes a representation of the banking sector. Where are the representatives of depositors? Where? Where? #LebanonProtests @Jad_Ghosn @dan_azzi<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/M3MvlXCGRT\"> pic.twitter.com\/M3MvlXCGRT<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200415596346855426\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:05 AM &#8211; 29 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb India Economic Conclave Dec 16-17 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ETNOWlive\/status\/1200350486441811968\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ETNOWlive\/status\/1200350486441811968 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200368209184075778\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:57 AM &#8211; 29 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Immense gratitude for this country, its people, its system. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200189901158924289\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:09 PM &#8211; 28 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom &#8220;A good book gets better at the second reading. A great book at the third. Any book not worth rereading isn&#8217;t worth reading.&#8221; &#8211; @nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/product\/198481981X\/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=198481981X&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=getwisertlb-20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/product\/198481981X\/ref=as_li_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=198481981X&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=getwisertlb-20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1200129604322807809\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:09 AM &#8211; 28 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@vtchakarova I use the occasion of #HappyThanksgiving to extent my special gratitude and big thanks to @nntaleb for giving me the unique chance to be part of his amazing #RWRI family this year and to grow immensely as a human and as a spirit! #SITG <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/vtchakarova\/status\/1200122116072443904\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:39 AM &#8211; 28 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb A mistake I made. My specialty is nonlinearity of responses. Complex systems have scaling issues from nonlinear responses. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1200048576900018178\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1200048576900018178 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200114374591025156\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:08 AM &#8211; 28 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@NonMeek Today&#8217;s #Offshorecomic. \u201cThe precautionary principle.\u201d \/ inspired by @nntaleb &amp; #RWRI For more visit <a href=\"http:\/\/buff.ly\/2FtBAIE\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">http:\/\/buff.ly\/2FtBAIE <\/a>\u00a0 Offshore books <a href=\"http:\/\/buff.ly\/32k8OVz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">http:\/\/buff.ly\/32k8OVz <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/PLe4nprr56&#8243;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/PLe4nprr56 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/NonMeek\/status\/1200107096337002496\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:40 AM &#8211; 28 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I solved the quandary: I drink only American wine for Thanksgiving. Yet I want something Lebanese. Compromise: American wine made by Diaspora Lebanese.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/7OPxpti5sV\"> pic.twitter.com\/7OPxpti5sV<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200081811755458560\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:59 AM &#8211; 28 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb As with IQ &#8220;regressions&#8221;, all it takes is one single point to change the story. #FooledbyRandomness <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/crispakarati\/status\/1200025405354328065\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/crispakarati\/status\/1200025405354328065 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200052920789671936\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:04 AM &#8211; 28 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@BitcoinDu Find out more about bitcoin in Lebanon at <a href=\"http:\/\/BitcoinDuliban.org\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">http:\/\/BitcoinDuliban.org <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/BitcoinDu\/status\/1200045531520733185\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:35 AM &#8211; 28 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@beirut_banyan We&#8217;re joined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb for Episode 81 of The Beirut Banyan, and we discuss the October 17 Revolution and Lebanon&#8217;s modern history within the context of complex systems and local structures. Soundcloud: <a href=\"https:\/\/soundcloud.com\/thebeirutbanyan\/episode-81-nassim-nicholas-taleb-local-structures-for-lebanon\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/soundcloud.com\/thebeirutbanyan\/episode-81-nassim-nicholas-taleb-local-structures-for-lebanon <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/My8F6fGN8Y&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/My8F6fGN8Y <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/beirut_banyan\/status\/1200038885125951490\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:09 AM &#8211; 28 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Lebanese Bitcoiners Show How to Talk About Crypto At Thanksgiving <a href=\"https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/lebanese-bitcoiners-show-how-to-talk-about-crypto-at-thanksgiving\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.coindesk.com\/lebanese-bitcoiners-show-how-to-talk-about-crypto-at-thanksgiving <\/a>\u00a0 via @coindesk <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200016647358205953\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:40 AM &#8211; 28 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The evolution of the reputation of #RiadPonzi <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/lukassustala\/status\/1199949608669106177\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/lukassustala\/status\/1199949608669106177 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1200011188123439104\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:18 AM &#8211; 28 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Never mess with other people\u2019s sacred values. Never. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1199458779521331201\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1199458779521331201 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1199813971659968517\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:15 PM &#8211; 27 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@B4DGETT This time of year, reminded of @nntaleb&#8217;s illustrative Thanksgiving turkey problem.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/EZKxD1AA0f\"> pic.twitter.com\/EZKxD1AA0f<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/B4DGETT\/status\/1199774037842571265\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:36 AM &#8211; 27 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@georges_ebel \u201cnever cross a river if it is on average 4 feet deep\u201d illustrated @nntaleb<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/hQRQqoOooy\"> pic.twitter.com\/hQRQqoOooy<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/georges_ebel\/status\/1199719488805113857\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:59 AM &#8211; 27 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb LEBANESE DIASPORA Buy Lebanese products. They need your dollars. Find a store near you.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/5z6QnBtbS7\"> pic.twitter.com\/5z6QnBtbS7<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1199693128254525455\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:15 AM &#8211; 27 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@prakashperuvamb He is a role model precisely because of that . Speaks his mind, doesn&#8217;t mince word or tolerate crap, and what he says almost always makes abundant sense &#8230; Not ur politically correct ninny nanny type @nntaleb <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/prakashperuvamb\/status\/1199681107656167425\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:27 AM &#8211; 27 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Chapter on Extreme Value Theory with some results<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/h1XRMTbDxi\"> pic.twitter.com\/h1XRMTbDxi<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1199678664318828544\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:17 AM &#8211; 27 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@MarkMulvey My favorite @nntaleb quote, because most people treat math as a means to an end but he treats it like an artisan or musician: as an means to experience. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntalebbot\/status\/1199470412465348608\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntalebbot\/status\/1199470412465348608 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/MarkMulvey\/status\/1199526997829062661\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:14 PM &#8211; 26 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I cannot stand phonies, despicable people like @BretWeinstein who act on bad faith. DESPICABLE! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/gallenperry\/status\/1199450736825917441?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/gallenperry\/status\/1199450736825917441?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1199458779521331201\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:43 PM &#8211; 26 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@dzviovich Wealth Gap is an emergent property of complex systems where agents interact. If system is not hijacked by rent seekers social mobility will follow as market preferences evolve. A very simple economy model will show these properties in action <a href=\"https:\/\/community.wolfram.com\/groups\/-\/m\/t\/1810873\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/community.wolfram.com\/groups\/-\/m\/t\/1810873 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/dzviovich\/status\/1199451530732220421\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:15 PM &#8211; 26 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom &#8220;A very useful heuristic, a potent filter: When someone criticizes you, train to immediately ask yourself: &#8220;Would I rather be him\/her, or I&#8217;d rather be me?&#8221; before taking the remark at face value. It works wonders. #SkinintheGame&#8221; &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1199392662304034816\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:21 AM &#8211; 26 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Fucking coward: I want to see you try to insult other religions as you did with Christianity &amp; people holding Christian beliefs. Coward and phony! <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1199366390886666240\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:36 AM &#8211; 26 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Attributing the #Iranprotests to fuel prices is similar to attributing the #LebaneseProtests to a tax on WhatsApp. #Verbalism<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/vskpcNAYOS\"> pic.twitter.com\/vskpcNAYOS<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1199363240008015872\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:24 AM &#8211; 26 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@normonics Anyone want to place bets how long it takes @BretWeinstein to apologize for telling Christians to shut up about their beliefs? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BretWeinstein\/status\/1199189516105314305\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/BretWeinstein\/status\/1199189516105314305 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1199342744725929984\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:02 AM &#8211; 26 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Probability Discovery Du Jour: the invisible tail for a power law distribution doesn&#8217;t depent on its parametrization. A closed form derivation of thee &#8220;invisible tail&#8221;.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/u1OlFLP75m\"> pic.twitter.com\/u1OlFLP75m<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1199319566180061184\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:30 AM &#8211; 26 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@af_rd_ @BrankoMilan citing the Antifragile work by @nntaleb. Didn&#8217;t need more incentives. But it happens to be an interesting read indeed &#8211; &#8216;Antifragile states and global cities&#8217; <a href=\"http:\/\/bit.ly\/2OJz3zX\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">http:\/\/bit.ly\/2OJz3zX <\/a>\u00a0 @ips_journal <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/af_rd_\/status\/1199283217083371520\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:06 AM &#8211; 26 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Hezb now experiencing peacetime dilemmas: 1) cannot side with the protests without upsetting Iran 2) cannot use missiles against its own citizens, so militiary power is useless 3) cannot control hooligans harassing demonstrators 4) cannot afford to lose Shiite\/Christian support <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hmalla72\/status\/1199023240380895234\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/hmalla72\/status\/1199023240380895234 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1199064261911359488\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:36 PM &#8211; 25 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Bible in Lebanese\/&#8221;NeoCannanite&#8221;. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/zaqariyya\/status\/1198979549045886977\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/zaqariyya\/status\/1198979549045886977 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198990377530929152\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:42 AM &#8211; 25 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1198957709313368064?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1198957709313368064?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198959501635919872\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:39 AM &#8211; 25 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Trying to explain extreme value theory: The Fr\u00e9chet is surprising simple to rederive.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/9RnRTk84Av\"> pic.twitter.com\/9RnRTk84Av<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198944271673503744\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:39 AM &#8211; 25 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@gabrielacunac Brillantemente expresado por @nntaleb<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/PDcY6klRgy\"> pic.twitter.com\/PDcY6klRgy<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/gabrielacunac\/status\/1198932449092194305\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:52 AM &#8211; 25 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Summary of my point <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RomanCabanac\/status\/1198923387764183041?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/RomanCabanac\/status\/1198923387764183041?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198923596233621504\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:17 AM &#8211; 25 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The war on the Christian religion by @BretWeinstein shows ignorance of revelation of preferences, a repeat of what the charlatan Harris is spreading. Religion is NOT epistemic, but functional, precautionary, and #LINDY. <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/how-to-be-rational-about-rationality-432e96dd4d1a <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198919463422308352\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:00 AM &#8211; 25 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb A lunatic&#8230; Dangerous&#8230; I thought the social planner was a closed problem. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BretWeinstein\/status\/1198650802107113474\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/BretWeinstein\/status\/1198650802107113474 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198733613296226304\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:42 PM &#8211; 24 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Again it is one position to say: &#8220;I wish to be with people from my tribe&#8221;, it is another one to claim: &#8220;I don&#8217;t want these people around BECAUSE they are genetically inferior&#8221;. This @erasmuse is in that second category which is FAR more dangerous. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198711228446707714\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:13 PM &#8211; 24 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen&#8217;s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ &amp; is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w\/the statistics\/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/bkOqncjRPs\"> pic.twitter.com\/bkOqncjRPs<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198709092967211008\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:04 PM &#8211; 24 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb @wrasmusevious Rasmusen&#8217;s stance has nothing to do with intellectual arguments; he has an a priori that some people have genetically inferior IQ &amp; is obsessing over it. When I posted my IQ stuff @easmuse did not engage w\/the statistics\/math, the only thing he did is pour abuse.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/bkOqncjRPs\"> pic.twitter.com\/bkOqncjRPs<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198709092967211008\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:04 PM &#8211; 24 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@NonMeek Taleb is arrogant. Find out why. Attend #RWRI <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198574349990715392\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198574349990715392 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/8VDS4FJ8Mq&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/8VDS4FJ8Mq <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/NonMeek\/status\/1198708340253171712\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:01 PM &#8211; 24 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom &#8220;A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you&#8217;d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy.&#8221; &#8211; Nassim Taleb #ethics <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1198707221858848768\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:57 PM &#8211; 24 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb More precise cross-correlations, bounds for transitivity in the Technical Incerto <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ProbFact\/status\/1196473782191476749\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ProbFact\/status\/1196473782191476749 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/yWvkoKNC1l&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/yWvkoKNC1l <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198582206362537986\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:40 AM &#8211; 24 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb We have scholarships open for Lebanese women, plus Iran, Bolivia, Catalonia, HK, etc. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198581466340433920\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:37 AM &#8211; 24 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb We have 5 scholarships open for Lebanese women. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198579451052875776\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:29 AM &#8211; 24 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb #RWRI <a href=\"http:\/\/realworldrisk.com\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">http:\/\/realworldrisk.com <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198574349990715392\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:09 AM &#8211; 24 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Dan Azzi is invited to get the RWRI certificate. Unlike Harvard degrees, it is not taught by professors, empty suits and bullshitters, but by people\/real scientists with skin in the game. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/dan_azzi\/status\/1197660414663909377\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/dan_azzi\/status\/1197660414663909377 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/VJMhme2kRI&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/VJMhme2kRI <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198570818780971008\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:55 AM &#8211; 24 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2) Contrary to what idiots-who-think-in-slogans spread at the tim, Proudhon was not against private property. His central idea is the domination of the state. He was fundamentally someone against the coercion of individuals. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BzhClair\/status\/1198547693972246528?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/BzhClair\/status\/1198547693972246528?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/3vfDHLiRZR&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/3vfDHLiRZR <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198548880574550016\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:28 AM &#8211; 24 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 1) The first #localist is Proudhon. He was both anarchist &amp; federalist, understood the link between distributed power and centralization. &#8220;Anarchy is order without power&#8221;. He got ran over by Marxists IYIs who fell for Marx&#8217;s nonsensical handwaving &#8220;scientific&#8221; approaches.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/dnh1mboOe1\"> pic.twitter.com\/dnh1mboOe1<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198545494794002432\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:14 AM &#8211; 24 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Complex systems #Localism <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/justinowings\/status\/1198072930812530688\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/justinowings\/status\/1198072930812530688 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198388961128923142\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:52 PM &#8211; 23 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntalebbot &#8220;A mathematician starts with a problem and creates a solution; a consultant starts by offering a \u201csolution\u201d and creates a problem.&#8221; &#8211; @nntaleb <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntalebbot\/status\/1198383472362041346\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:30 PM &#8211; 23 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Eric Rasmusen did produce all manner of personal abuse when my piece on IQ, heritability, etc. came out &#8211;I was wondering why, since his statistical comments were random. Turns out the fellow has indeed neo-nazi beliefs and tendencies. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/erasmuse\/status\/1196917954711080961\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/erasmuse\/status\/1196917954711080961 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198329665078857729\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:57 AM &#8211; 23 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The full Triangle paper is here <a href=\"http:\/\/www.thinktriangle.net\/extend-and-pretend-lebanons-financial-house-of-cards-2\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">http:\/\/www.thinktriangle.net\/extend-and-pretend-lebanons-financial-house-of-cards-2\/ <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198307979575091208\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:31 AM &#8211; 23 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@paulportesi Debt and leverage have a @nntaleb dose-response sigmoid characteristics. Simply said, debt and leveraged is similar to drugs. It can be convex initially but will eventually reach an upper limit where it becomes concave an exponentially harmful. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/paulportesi\/status\/1198302442028331008\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:09 AM &#8211; 23 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I expect plenty of factories to be built once #RiadPonzi and his policies are terminated. It took 3 years for Egypt and Turkey to build yuuuge reserves after their devaluation. I will make sure Riad Salameh is remembered as the MOST HARMFUL person in the history of #Lebanon. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198251493482213386\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:46 AM &#8211; 23 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Some PR machinery is still trying to make people buy the argument that doubting GMOs is anti-science. In fact it is bullshit like this nonscientist journos such as @kittypurrzog that IS anti-science. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kittypurrzog\/status\/1197942231358832641\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/kittypurrzog\/status\/1197942231358832641 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198250540620226561\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:42 AM &#8211; 23 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Meanwhile I am optimistic that once the Ponzi stops, we will have a yuuuuuge boom in #Lebanon. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198241406315302912\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:06 AM &#8211; 23 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb After my USJ talk on #RiadPonzi &amp; Localism a few &#8220;economists&#8221; went on MTV to explain I was nonsensical &amp; &#8220;arrogant&#8221;, it was not a Ponzi, Lebanon is different, etc. Triangle explains where it is a Ponzi: + Use new deposits to pay interest to existing depositors rather than invest!<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/0LtlAZsOTb\"> pic.twitter.com\/0LtlAZsOTb<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198240628007673857\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:03 AM &#8211; 23 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Civis Romanus sum The Republic of Koura in Lebanon (Capital Amioun) is closset to Cyprus &amp; Crete. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewidy\/status\/1198010880824369152\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/andrewidy\/status\/1198010880824369152 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198229730648088576\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:20 AM &#8211; 23 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Our paper in the philosophy of probability, with @DrCirillo<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/hc4gyy2qXQ\"> pic.twitter.com\/hc4gyy2qXQ<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198221664741416961\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:48 AM &#8211; 23 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Note I refuse honors and rank &amp; when introduced as a speaker, I allow only one piece of information: Uber ratings of &gt;4.9 Excellent bullet points for my lecktshur on #Localism at LAU New York. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JacobGnther1\/status\/1198149271196983296\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/JacobGnther1\/status\/1198149271196983296 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1198189158264692736\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:38 AM &#8211; 23 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@NonMeek Today&#8217;s #Offshorecomic. \u201cThe best predictor of a collapse or blow-up =&gt; smooth returns\u201d [part 2\/2] \/ co-author @Firsou \/ inspired by @nntaleb&#8217;s #RWRI For more visit <a href=\"http:\/\/buff.ly\/2FtBAIE\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">http:\/\/buff.ly\/2FtBAIE <\/a>\u00a0 Offshore books <a href=\"http:\/\/buff.ly\/32k8OVz\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">http:\/\/buff.ly\/32k8OVz <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/5BkxugmfTw&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/5BkxugmfTw <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/NonMeek\/status\/1197919742042017793\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:48 AM &#8211; 22 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@DominikWeil Following his activities in Lebanon closely &#8211; if his ideas on #localism and #decentralization of power structures can be implemented there&#8230; &#8211; provides hope &amp; tailwind for other localist movements around the globe #freecityfrankfurt <a href=\"https:\/\/mobile.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196790333000077312\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/mobile.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196790333000077312 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/DominikWeil\/status\/1197907194420715527\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:58 AM &#8211; 22 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The only way one can short it without basis risk is if it lists on the NYSE AND has high volume. Plans to list in the US were cancelled. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/eddyaccu\/status\/1197891192471588864\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/eddyaccu\/status\/1197891192471588864 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197893959261065218\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:05 AM &#8211; 22 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Fascists anf antilocalists are easily pushed to produce incoherence <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197870058514665472?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197870058514665472?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197871617776521218\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:37 AM &#8211; 22 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My approach is not to convince the person but expose publicly his defects in reasoning. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197864991912796160?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197864991912796160?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197870792639492101\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:33 AM &#8211; 22 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Fascist @asadabukhalil wrote the only commentary on my talk on #Localism below The fascist denies local ancestral Lebanese poetry (Zajal) as a literary form. The unmistakable stamp of fascism all across. Particularly in the denial of the notion of scale. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww?view_as=subscriber\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UC8uY6yLP9BS4BUc9BSc0Jww?view_as=subscriber <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197857853375156226\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:42 AM &#8211; 22 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Start tagging Arabists as &#8220;facists&#8221; nemesis of #Localism They COERCE you into an &#8220;identity&#8221; Destroy diversity &amp; force a Medieval language w\/purity Stamp out Mediterranean culture in Lebanon, &amp; its character as cultural crossroad Example: antilocalist fascist @asadabukhalil <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197856573676277760\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:37 AM &#8211; 22 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@marciadabliu .not that these people would be interested but it seems @nntaleb has demolished the concept of IQ measuring let alone that intelligence could ever be inherited. <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 <\/a>\u00a0 and yes, ooops some many ethical issues involved <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/marciadabliu\/status\/1197835949184565248\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:15 AM &#8211; 22 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb People in Lebanon are not yet used to see a person entirely free who doesn&#8217;t give a fuck about his reputation. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197827754496057344\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:42 AM &#8211; 22 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb He made the mistake of pathologizing someone, which to me is a yuuuge intellectual violation. He will pay for it for the rest of his life as I find it egregious: that&#8217;s what the Soviets did with dissent. Never pathologize. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197818865989902336\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:07 AM &#8211; 22 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This is NOT squid ink. Just colored pasta. @adam_sajdak <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/adam_sajdak\/status\/1197676208907018241\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/adam_sajdak\/status\/1197676208907018241 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197816289311494145\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:57 AM &#8211; 22 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Is it me or it is quite strange when someone keeps insulting you online, but not in person when they unexpectly meet you in the physical world? In other words talk is cheap online, but costly in real life. #Skininthegame <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197255332864647168\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197255332864647168 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197639058060533761\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:12 PM &#8211; 21 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@normonics We live in a novel age, no doubt But you have to be blind to believe it is &#8220;absolutely&#8221; novel Most of what is relevant to us is not new but very old indeed, easy to take for granted I suppose And, what should one &#8220;blindly follow&#8221;, Bret? The latest trend? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/BretWeinstein\/status\/1197576604563562499\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/BretWeinstein\/status\/1197576604563562499 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1197624196781789185\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:13 PM &#8211; 21 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb From the remarks of the mob @RaniaKhalek is sending my way, there is an ELEMENTARY defect of reasoning both with her &amp; the mob. One can be AGAINST US interventionism yet AGAINST repressive theocracy &amp; AGAINST the massacre of young protesters in Iraq &amp; Iran. Fehm\u00e9nin? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197584112703463424\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:34 AM &#8211; 21 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Finishing a paper in philosophy of probability with @DrCirillo<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/TofruImYBO\"> pic.twitter.com\/TofruImYBO<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197579339170234373\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:15 AM &#8211; 21 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@normonics .@TulsiGabbard expressed the need for local-first and regional-based agriculture model last night This is common sense from every perspective *except* for large scale factory-style industrial agriculture corporations and their lobby. Thank you, Tulsi. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1197557162991595525\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:47 AM &#8211; 21 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Outside an ancestral environment (or a small village), you cannot be both ethical and striving for people to like you. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197555894873141250\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:42 AM &#8211; 21 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb OK, confirmed statistically. 100% of @RaniaKhalek posts are propaganda. There is NO information in the posts of the propagandists, since all you see is cherrypicked. Her &#8220;journalism&#8221; career is done. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RaniaKhalek\/status\/1197412341874339840?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/RaniaKhalek\/status\/1197412341874339840?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197536979749130241\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:27 AM &#8211; 21 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@Boswall_Jacob For all depositors at #Lebanese banks, @Li_Haqqi and @nizarghanem have created a Facebook campaign to ensure that small and medium account holders don&#8217;t foot the bill of the #economic crisis. #\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646 It&#8217;s called #\u0644\u0646_\u0646\u062f\u0641\u0639_\u0627\u0644\u062b\u0645\u0646 &#8211; find your bank here: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LiHaqqi\/photos\/a.759628340890167\/1276672349185761\/?type=3&amp;theater\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/LiHaqqi\/photos\/a.759628340890167\/1276672349185761\/?type=3&amp;theater <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/lR6eggnVUM&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/lR6eggnVUM <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/Boswall_Jacob\/status\/1197524527791693826\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:37 AM &#8211; 21 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I removed from The Black Swan these comment because, at the time, I was stupid enough to listen to editors. &#8220;A White Swan not taking place is a Black Swan.&#8221; &#8220;You look at counterexamples for the usual, verification for the unusual&#8221;. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Heinonmatti\/status\/1197502130799677440\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Heinonmatti\/status\/1197502130799677440 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197503069900169216\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:12 AM &#8211; 21 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb MODERNISM Before the formation of the Greek Nation-State &amp; Nordic historical manufacturing, Greek &#8220;identity&#8221; was not built ar. Classical Greece,but Greek Orthodoxy Greek Restaurants, now called &#8220;Olympic&#8221;, Acropolis, wd have been &#8220;Agios Nikolaos&#8221;, &#8220;Ag. Dimitrios&#8221;, &#8220;Aya Pelagia&#8221; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197484009703522309\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:56 AM &#8211; 21 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@jbaksht I bought Incerto, can\u2019t wait to reread all of them. Thanks @nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kpaxs\/status\/1197240014880563202\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/kpaxs\/status\/1197240014880563202 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/jbaksht\/status\/1197483723098349570\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:55 AM &#8211; 21 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Dabk\u00e9 Anatolian in origin. East Med imprint. Naples was Neapolis a Greek settlement. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/imleslahdin\/status\/1197281616936067072\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/imleslahdin\/status\/1197281616936067072 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197282648688877570\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:36 PM &#8211; 20 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Life is boring if your online detractors freeze in terror when they run into you in the physical world. I saw a nondeadlifting stranger in a state of yuuge terror as I passed by his table, as if he ran into the Loch Ness Monster. Could be from photo the Arabo-fascist @joeyayoub <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Decafquest\/status\/1195762604796502025\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Decafquest\/status\/1195762604796502025 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/dUCilXhM0e&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/dUCilXhM0e <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197255332864647168\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:48 PM &#8211; 20 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I told an assembly of prominent farts in Lebanon, the local establishment: I don&#8217;t care about you f*cks, so long as your children are reading the INCERTO. And they are. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197187823868223492\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:19 AM &#8211; 20 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Napoleon wanted power &amp; glory. He liked flashy victories. Cambaceres who *wrote* the Napoleonic code liked influence. Napoleon lost everything but most of the world uses the Cambareces code dubbed &#8220;code Napol\u00e9on&#8221;. The world is run according to C. Gabish? <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/prateekkul\/status\/1197184716815978497?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/prateekkul\/status\/1197184716815978497?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197187104377331712\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:17 AM &#8211; 20 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I respect those who seek influence; never those who seek power. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197179825825427456\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:48 AM &#8211; 20 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@JamesMarsh79 i think this proves Nassim&#8217;s point about size.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/fCuYrzuXkv\"> pic.twitter.com\/fCuYrzuXkv<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/JamesMarsh79\/status\/1197176134779187206\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:33 AM &#8211; 20 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Nassim Nicholas Taleb Lebanon: From Ponzi to Localism <a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/53uW9Xd_JRU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/youtu.be\/53uW9Xd_JRU <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197173757250551808\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:24 AM &#8211; 20 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb After defending her (benefits of the doubt), I am now nearly certain that @RaniaKhalek is an Iranian regime shill. The Regime is massacring hundreds of youths in Iraq &amp; Iran. It is unpardonable. A shill is always UNCONDITIONALLY on one side of an issue. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RaniaKhalek\/status\/1197125109963776001\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/RaniaKhalek\/status\/1197125109963776001 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/ddbxESnPpu&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/ddbxESnPpu <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1197134822088556544\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:49 AM &#8211; 20 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom &#8220;In any profession, 90% of people are clueless but work by situational imitation, narrow mimicry &amp; semi-conscious role-playing. Except social &#8220;science&#8221; and journalism where it is 99% and 100%, respectively.&#8221; &#8211; @nntaleb <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1197124804098306049\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:09 AM &#8211; 20 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@Zzeghedrane Localism taking place and shape strongly on the ground instead of in theory Cc: @nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/kassimchahrour\/status\/1197079385012133889\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/kassimchahrour\/status\/1197079385012133889 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/KJseJ0J4ZV&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/KJseJ0J4ZV <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/Zzeghedrane\/status\/1197124428796190723\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:07 AM &#8211; 20 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The foundation of the 1\/n heuristic is that the law of large numbers cannot be invoked. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/otrasenda_AC\/status\/1196957373438578688\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/otrasenda_AC\/status\/1196957373438578688 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196959493449551873\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:12 PM &#8211; 19 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb In other words we get an exponential out of a power law. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196940539251318784\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:57 PM &#8211; 19 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Interesting (and shocking) result. The &#8220;missing tail&#8221; for a power law follows a thin-tailed distribution.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/Uh2RR8ikzF\"> pic.twitter.com\/Uh2RR8ikzF<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196916703319511042\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:22 PM &#8211; 19 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb GRECO-SEMITIC MYSTERIOUS PHILOLOGY DU JOUR: Seems that qariba \u0642\u0627\u0631\u0628 (small boat) doesn&#8217;t come from \u05e7\u05b8\u05e8\u05d5\u05b9\u05d1 \u0642\u0631\u0628, proximity (to coast) but from the Byzantine Greek \u03ba\u03b1\u03c1\u03ac\u03b2\u03b9 (pl.l \u03ba\u03b1\u03c1\u03ac\u03b2\u03b9\u03b1) [same root as&#8221;crab&#8221;] Could the Byz. Greek originate from the Semitic \u05e7\u05b8\u05e8\u05d5\u05b9\u05d1 via Syrian Greek? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196911829735354368\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:03 PM &#8211; 19 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb It feels the riots are more likely to succeed in Iran because: 1- Trump did not claim direct credit 2- Little news coverage 3- It feels like it is about time, I mean about time <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196889864718995457\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:35 PM &#8211; 19 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@HietanenPaavo More shenanigans by Finnish #Antifragile team w\/ @LIHF_Living @STrosterud @Heinonmatti. Discussing hunting, Finnish localism and how more @nntaleb&#8217;s localism should be planted to Finnish political soil<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/Vywx3JgEne\"> pic.twitter.com\/Vywx3JgEne<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/HietanenPaavo\/status\/1196872133806305284\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:25 AM &#8211; 19 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb #RiadPonzi These estimates were close. Got new information, the alpha coefficient is stable.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/hsgpzkZuOY\"> pic.twitter.com\/hsgpzkZuOY<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196837718879350785\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:08 AM &#8211; 19 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@VqVoice Our new article is about making good software architecture for hearables, ergodicity, and just a little about Scorsese&#8217;s awesome film Casino (with special thanks to @nntaleb and #RWRI ) #technology #startup #softwaredevelopment <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/the-science-of-conversation\/the-casino-problem-and-hearable-software-architecture-5de2730a42ec?source=friends_link&amp;sk=233bfb8ca47514fb669804146b05eba9\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/medium.com\/the-science-of-conversation\/the-casino-problem-and-hearable-software-architecture-5de2730a42ec?source=friends_link&amp;sk=233bfb8ca47514fb669804146b05eba9 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/VqVoice\/status\/1196818287369211904\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:51 AM &#8211; 19 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@BrendanJHammer Taking my daily @nntaleb &#8211; he nails it here on the proxy wars of couples. #BedOfProcrustes<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/S8VYxYqWBX\"> pic.twitter.com\/S8VYxYqWBX<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/BrendanJHammer\/status\/1196813816513880069\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:33 AM &#8211; 19 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I detect that our movement is killing the old Libertarian and anarchist factions. #Localism <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/jed_trott\/status\/1196791845671653376\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/jed_trott\/status\/1196791845671653376 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196811340893036544\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:23 AM &#8211; 19 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@normonics <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196790333000077312\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196790333000077312 <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\" &lt;a href=\"> &#8221; target=&#8221;_blank&#8221;&gt;http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/hnp4YKByVy&#8221;&gt; <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/hnp4YKByVy <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1196797186572505088\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:27 AM &#8211; 19 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Principia_Politica\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Principia_Politica <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mhaffar\/status\/1196794602994487296\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/mhaffar\/status\/1196794602994487296 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196795411677302785\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:20 AM &#8211; 19 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Case closed <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-11-18\/aramco-failure-to-win-foreign-investors-makes-ipo-a-local-event?srnd=premium-middle-east\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-11-18\/aramco-failure-to-win-foreign-investors-makes-ipo-a-local-event?srnd=premium-middle-east <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196455460817297408\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:49 AM &#8211; 18 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@RickKLN Rediscovered my faith years ago when you blocked me on FB. A Christian that didn\u2019t discuss both sides, and could dismiss questions as BS changed my life. One of these years I will attend #RWRI and say thanks in person. Diplomacy is NOT more effective. BS busting is. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/RickKLN\/status\/1196372214452572160\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:18 AM &#8211; 18 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb A Sheikh in the Beqaa is saying &#8220;we can deliver Switzerland of the East&#8221; in 20 days. We do not need the central state. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/HsenAndil\/status\/1196367753436946432\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/HsenAndil\/status\/1196367753436946432 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196369430252597250\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:07 AM &#8211; 18 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The Lebanese are still shocked by my &#8220;in your face&#8221; blunt, totally unapologetic, uncompromising, no-BS, &#8220;he&#8217;s incompetent&#8221;\/&#8221;you&#8217;re an idiot&#8221; approach, esp when I address IYI &#8220;specialists&#8221; I threw someone w\/unsollicited advice &#8220;diplomacy is more effective&#8221; out of my house. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196369100936818688\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:06 AM &#8211; 18 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Very rough statistical estimatess. Wished the banks told us more. Good news for the small depositor<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/WKp6ptnO9J\"> pic.twitter.com\/WKp6ptnO9J<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196358745057611776\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:25 AM &#8211; 18 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Key part in PRINCIPIA is that the demarcation left-right has been redrawn by real science, along the lines STATIST-LOCALIST-MINARCHIST When I gave my tawk in Boulder, was told US most localists self-defined as &#8220;left&#8221;.Super-localist= Libertarian, etc. I prefer the IDIOT-NONIDIOT <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/laurentozon\/status\/1196347126466396162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/laurentozon\/status\/1196347126466396162 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196358365540233222\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:23 AM &#8211; 18 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I think the haircut can be milder 200k-1 mil, since the bulk is from accounts&gt;1 mil <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196355556275036160\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:12 AM &#8211; 18 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb There is a problem w\/: Short Aramco Long Oil contracts which maturity? Aramco =~ perpetual maturity The front contracts can be much, much more volatile than the back and decorrelate during squeezes. Discussed in one of the #RWRI <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/mazen_barbir\/status\/1196292503743401985?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/mazen_barbir\/status\/1196292503743401985?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196332034169483264\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:39 PM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Solved half<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/BAJ2Hg9oZv\"> pic.twitter.com\/BAJ2Hg9oZv<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196223950860275712\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:29 PM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb QUIZ (Statistical sleuthing) We know that +1% of accts in #Lebanon own 50% of total, $170 bil +accts &lt;$200K represent $20 bil in total (rough numbers) Assume Pareto distr. How many accounts have &gt; 200K, 1 mil, 10 mil ? What&#8217;s the weekly drain from 1000$ withdrawal per acct? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196218822979657729\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:09 PM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@Firsou Anyone in Lebanon that advocates indebting the country in a similar manner should be treated with extreme suspicion. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.africanstand.com\/business\/china-to-take-over-kenyas-main-port-over-unpaid-huge-chinese-loan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.africanstand.com\/business\/china-to-take-over-kenyas-main-port-over-unpaid-huge-chinese-loan\/ <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/Firsou\/status\/1196214720791040006\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:53 PM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I saw no such posters. My point is that the only way to satisfy Salafis is to give them their own communes. Unless you recommend &#8220;killing them all&#8221;. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AliSalaam_DTI\/status\/1196190174906068993\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/AliSalaam_DTI\/status\/1196190174906068993 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196190999837577216\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:18 PM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb #Localism A crowd starts clapping from one single trigger. Revolutions (1848, #LebanonProtest, Iran, Iraq, Chile, H-K, Barcelona) spread spontaneously, &#8220;leaderless&#8221;, bec. complex systems work by 1 heuristic: once you find the trigger, you get power law behavior. Hard to reverse. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196188905814581248\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:10 PM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb He said &#8220;Tripolis is 10% Salafi, mostly in one neighborhood, &amp; there is no alcohol in the whole place out of fear. You need to either increase the subdivisions or force the sectarians into a secular system that will turn them into terrorists out of resentment.&#8221; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196183749244919808\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:50 PM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb #Localism at its best!!! Intoxicated by what is happening in Tripolis (Troblos) Tens of simultaneous ORDERLY discussion groups on constitutional, legal, economic matters Shocked to hear someone telling me &#8220;Tripoli shd not be one municipality &#8221; because &#8220;minority rules&#8221;!<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/kw6Ns9RPmP\"> pic.twitter.com\/kw6Ns9RPmP<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196170423421034496\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:57 PM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Albert Kostanian proposing the equitable haircut proposed on his program: spare small accounts &lt;200K, have a progressive haircut. <a href=\"https:\/\/video.twimg.com\/ext_tw_video\/1195895226080120832\/pu\/vid\/480x270\/euqLRKy2IEHnjwzB.mp4?tag=10\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/video.twimg.com\/ext_tw_video\/1195895226080120832\/pu\/vid\/480&#215;270\/euqLRKy2IEHnjwzB.mp4?tag=10 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlbertKostanian\/status\/1195999663071121410\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/AlbertKostanian\/status\/1195999663071121410 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196167985297264643\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:47 PM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@soonaorlater \u2018Bitcoin removes [government] from the transaction&#8230;They\u2019re trying to \u2018ban bitcoin\u2019 because they\u2019re afraid of it. It\u2019s important for us [the Lebanese] from now on to learn about crypto. Our collective intelligence is greater than the state\u2019s\u2019 &#8211; @nntaleb <a href=\"https:\/\/open.tube\/videos\/watch\/f5813d6f-96d2-4e95-b3b3-a7c6a51abd7f\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/open.tube\/videos\/watch\/f5813d6f-96d2-4e95-b3b3-a7c6a51abd7f <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/soonaorlater\/status\/1196147207440916480\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:24 AM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb A rioter was explaining the Silver Rule: \u201cMitl ma bit3omil btet3omal\u201d <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196126638582435843\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 10:03 AM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Troblos (Tripolis) The epicenter of the Revolution.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/BFauyzR9CF\"> pic.twitter.com\/BFauyzR9CF<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196124878220484610\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:56 AM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@rebeccacollard \u201cFrom Tehran to Beirut, one revolution that won\u2019t die\u201d Lebanese chanting in support of Iran protests tonight. #LebanonProtests #IranProtests #iran #\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646_\u064a\u0646\u062a\u0642\u0636<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/V9QydyrU9A\"> pic.twitter.com\/V9QydyrU9A<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/rebeccacollard\/status\/1196115796252073984\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:20 AM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb II- Also as a bonus you &#8220;earn&#8221; the country risk since Aramco is located in the Shiite area with an oppressed minority who rightfully believe oil is theirs. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1196100413990297605\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 8:18 AM &#8211; 17 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@PZalloua At z Lecture on Localism, Beirut USJ @nntaleb over-filled<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/LADSCuupyj\"> pic.twitter.com\/LADSCuupyj<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/PZalloua\/status\/1195370372536918016\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:58 AM &#8211; 15 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I want to be sued for the defamation of #RiadPonzi <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/aya_majzoub\/status\/1194563388266823680\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/aya_majzoub\/status\/1194563388266823680 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1195347185015107586\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:25 AM &#8211; 15 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Pareto 80\/20 Estimated share of deposits. I suggest NO HAIRCUT except for acc &gt;500K-1m &amp; progressive beyond.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/JZxgt5Z8HB\"> pic.twitter.com\/JZxgt5Z8HB<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1195328386064932864\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:11 AM &#8211; 15 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb GEORGIA as a model for #Lebanon MOST successful post-Soviet state. -Fired the entire police dept. Over 7 month w\/o law enforcement, crime dropped by 60% (they claim) -Anti-corruption gov : most in their 20s, PM 32. 0 tolerance,$20 bribe=&gt;7y jail #\u0643\u0644\u0646_\u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a_\u0643\u0644\u0646 @fadyasly <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1195314768380338176\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:17 AM &#8211; 15 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb This tweet puts to rest all possible theories of &#8220;Aounist tendencies&#8221; on my part. I am intransigent &amp; INDEPENDENT. Always, everywhere, w\/ no political loyalties even if I am buddies w\/@Gebran_Bassil A judge has no friends. There are NO exceptions. #\u0643\u0644\u0646_\u064a\u0639\u0646\u064a_\u0643\u0644\u0646 #\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646_\u064a\u0646\u062a\u0641\u0636 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1195310461107015681\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:59 AM &#8211; 15 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Full paper (2nd revision) is here <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1907.11162\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1907.11162 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1195307295044972544\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:47 AM &#8211; 15 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Typo: (&#8220;incl Gold&#8221; shd be &#8220;excl. Gold&#8221;), but P\/L (actual negative bleed) must me much &gt; $5 bn. Ref: Toufic Gaspard&#8217;s note.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/Ip0a0US4BP\"> pic.twitter.com\/Ip0a0US4BP<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194976579656527875\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:53 AM &#8211; 14 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My talk tomorrow. Riad&#8217;s Ponzi has been depleting reserves at a yuuuuge rate &amp; borrowing to preserve a harmful &#8220;peg&#8221;. BDL has liabilities &gt;$86 bil costing huge carry and assets &lt;$40bil (incl. gold) earning &lt;1%. On top of the fiscal deficit Riad&#8217;s Ponzi is costing&gt;$5 bil\/year <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/EHSANI22\/status\/1194968612940996608\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/EHSANI22\/status\/1194968612940996608 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194971457652232192\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:32 AM &#8211; 14 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Revised the paper on the misfitness of binary predictions in real life (and the nonsense in many psychological claims) @spyrosmakrid<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/owoC1TWEjV\"> pic.twitter.com\/owoC1TWEjV<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194957088021241857\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:35 AM &#8211; 14 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Our (non naive) precautionary principle page. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194743635193008128\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:27 PM &#8211; 13 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb You cannot possibly give Aoun the benefit of the doubt. He is, besides, talking to citizens as if they were his SUBJECTS, or a general&#8217;s subordinates. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Fadi_Ramadan\/status\/1194740505713807360?s=20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Fadi_Ramadan\/status\/1194740505713807360?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194742675649581057\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:23 PM &#8211; 13 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@normonics There are moments where I almost feel pity on a guy like this But invariably they re-reveal themselves Steven Brainiac Pinker: &#8220;If you don&#8217;t recite my corporate propaganda you are a mindless killer&#8221; What a f**ing piece of trash. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1194449088185454592\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1194449088185454592 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/1194670198843940864\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:35 AM &#8211; 13 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Aoun seems to see the protests as some transitory annoyance &#8211;he appears to be irritated by the messenger. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194639682124038145\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:34 AM &#8211; 13 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Optionality and the Intellectual Life: In Gratitude for the Real World Risk Institute #RWRI 12 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.frontporchrepublic.com\/2019\/11\/optionality-and-the-intellectual-life-in-gratitude-for-the-real-world-risk-institute\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/www.frontporchrepublic.com\/2019\/11\/optionality-and-the-intellectual-life-in-gratitude-for-the-real-world-risk-institute\/ <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194626579894161408\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:42 AM &#8211; 13 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Indeed I listened to his interview. That&#8217;s what he said. And, what is worse, what he meant. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194618399789395971\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:09 AM &#8211; 13 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb President Michel Aoun You said that those who don&#8217;t like the government should emigrate. I am doing the exact reverse. I left 43 years ago. I am now in transit to Beirut, just to make sure YOU emigrate. #LebanonProtests cc:@Gebran_Bassil #\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646_\u064a\u0646\u062a\u0641\u0636<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/yM2vZybypr\"> pic.twitter.com\/yM2vZybypr<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194599707588386816\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:55 AM &#8211; 13 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb FORMAL INVITATION. First come first served<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/gNmMthVM5A\"> pic.twitter.com\/gNmMthVM5A<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194547272362680321\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:27 AM &#8211; 13 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Anatomy of a state Ponzi. These are largely accumulated phantom interest earnings. Salameh killed the Lebanese economy. Scammer!!! <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/ehsani22\/status\/1191790897387769856\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/ehsani22\/status\/1191790897387769856 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194409824068493312\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:21 PM &#8211; 12 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Lesson from Riad Salameh\u2019s incompetence: No central banker should ever try to print money in a foreign currency. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194341356413628419\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:49 AM &#8211; 12 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@otrasenda_AC Who else started to DL because reading @nntaleb ? i did <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AntonioSerbia\/status\/1194295926938095619\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/AntonioSerbia\/status\/1194295926938095619 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/otrasenda_AC\/status\/1194334994669305856\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 11:23 AM &#8211; 12 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Owing to the responses, USJ will be using a different amphitheater &gt;500 pple; a new announcement will be posted tomorrow. [Also note that your twitter response is not a reservation but a market assessment; it is still first come first served] <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194304809844826113\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 9:23 AM &#8211; 12 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@PaulSkallas Here&#8217;s some Libanius<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/2rQFRZsxeE\"> pic.twitter.com\/2rQFRZsxeE<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/PaulSkallas\/status\/1194274501887959045\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:23 AM &#8211; 12 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Lghtak hiyy\u00e9 l bt7k\u00e9 ma3 immak. Msh lgh\u00e9t l sa7ra lb3id\u00e9. #Localism #Lma7alliy\u00e9 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194236681559433216\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:53 AM &#8211; 12 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Please make sure to confirm attendance.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/PCB2KoXbsD\"> pic.twitter.com\/PCB2KoXbsD<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194216189603520512\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:31 AM &#8211; 12 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My lecture, Friday 6 PM &#8220;From Ponzi to Localism&#8221; USJ School of Medicine Please confirm on Twitter so we can predict attendance. LANGUAGE: Lebanese<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/aFdVZYf5BX\"> pic.twitter.com\/aFdVZYf5BX<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1194189624014516224\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:46 AM &#8211; 12 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Yes, formalized here see my paper on Antifragility in medicine <a href=\"https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1808.00065.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1808.00065.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/npandey25\/status\/1193902978693881857\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/npandey25\/status\/1193902978693881857 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1193911966722613253\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:22 AM &#8211; 11 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@Stefano_Peron kernel Mutual information in cluster matrix. Tnx to @financequant @nntaleb<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/9TrhAhdNVR\"> pic.twitter.com\/9TrhAhdNVR<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/Stefano_Peron\/status\/1193900545209184257\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:37 AM &#8211; 11 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb WE MUST STOP SALAMEH NOW! #RiadPonzi Salameh MUST suspend payments on the Eurobond &amp; declare a moratorium. This is outright theft from Lebanese citizens. Send to your friends! Will discuss further on Friday evening 6PM in Beirut #lebanonprotest #\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646__\u064a\u0646\u062a\u0641\u0636 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1193897946686853120\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 6:27 AM &#8211; 11 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@MauriceMassaad I work in a Leb co. that manufactures steel shelving solutions. 10 y ago we started exporting to difficult countries in Europe, Africa, ME. I personally spent 4 y trying to convince a French company to join us &#8230; with success! Now we are not able to deliver. Thank you. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/MauriceMassaad\/status\/1193874203667243009\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:52 AM &#8211; 11 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb When you are scared, it is impossible to hide it, no matter how hard you try. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1193865878531497984\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:19 AM &#8211; 11 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb CURRENT TWITTER ACTIVISM +#Localism &amp; anti geopolitical BS vendors\/Arabist fascism), &amp; #lebanonprotest +#RiadPonzi +Pseudostatistics, esp. #Quilletbeciles\/Neonazis\/Eugenists w IQ claims &amp; other #Alt-Right #Nordicists +#Nudge Finished: #Monsanto, #SaudiBarbaria, #Econometrics <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1193863332257767425\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 4:09 AM &#8211; 11 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb We don&#8217;t have to avoid imports, but the local industry became &#8230;just banks. I want #RiadPonzi to pay for it. #\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646_\u064a\u0646\u062a\u0641\u0636 #LebanonProtests <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1193860620128575489\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:58 AM &#8211; 11 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Salameh&#8217;s Ponzi killed the Lebanese economy: small businesses, anything that could provide exports or mitigate imports has been crowded out. #RiadPonzi #\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646_\u064a\u0646\u062a\u0641\u0636 #LebanonProtests <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1193858544707276801\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:50 AM &#8211; 11 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Salameh is criminally incompetent. And, of course, a liar. #\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646_\u064a\u0646\u062a\u0641\u0636 #LebanonProtests <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DailyStarLeb\/status\/1193854637788545024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/DailyStarLeb\/status\/1193854637788545024 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1193855275180138496\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:37 AM &#8211; 11 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@OddmundGrotte Skin In The Game: Family\/Owner-Operated Companies Perform Better? <a href=\"https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4303077-skin-game-family-owner-operated-companies-perform-better\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/4303077-skin-game-family-owner-operated-companies-perform-better <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/OddmundGrotte\/status\/1193831979302694912\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 2:04 AM &#8211; 11 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Friends, looking for a Madoff expert to figure out how they finally allocated the losses. #Ponzi #LebanonProtests #\u0644\u0628\u0646\u0627\u0646__\u064a\u0646\u062a\u0641\u0636 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1193674744513650688\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 3:40 PM &#8211; 10 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@TalebWisdom &#8220;Wisdom isn&#8217;t about understanding things (&amp; people); it is knowing what they can do to you.&#8221; &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb #wisdom <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/TalebWisdom\/status\/1193637112651960321\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 1:10 PM &#8211; 10 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Good news that Western newspapers are not reporting on #LebanonProtests. Why? Journos only get geopolitics &amp; this is (still) a localist anti-geopolitical revolt. Trick by BS vendors (eg @tomfriedman) who understand nothing is make things geopolitical. (See #TheBlackSwan) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1193620787493781504\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 12:05 PM &#8211; 10 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@justinowings What&#8217;s lost in the climate debate? Pushing models and trusting experts _undermines_ the argument for caution. Alternative argument: Set the science aside. Lean on decision making under uncertainty\u2014something everyone understands. &#8220;We have only one planet.&#8221; So don&#8217;t f**k it up. <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1193545813785530370\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1193545813785530370 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/justinowings\/status\/1193552710706089985\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 7:35 AM &#8211; 10 Nov 2019<\/p>\n<p>@Lekapenos 1) I&#8217;m going to continue ridiculing the &#8220;muh steppe&#8221; quasi-Nordicists here: &#8220;The genetic basis of a number of physical features of the Yamnaya people were ascertained by the ancient DNA studies conducted by Haak et al. (2015), Wilde et al. (2014) and Mathieson et al. (2015): <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/Lekapenos\/status\/1193527889246994432\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Permalink<\/a> 5:56 AM &#8211; 10 Nov 2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>On the Statistical Differences between BinaryForecasts and Real World Payoffs (pdf) STATISTICAL CONSEQUENCES OF FAT TAILS [TECHNICAL INCERTO COLLECTION] Real World Risk Institute, LLC &#8211; HOW TO MAKE DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY EPISTEMOLOGY of PROBABILITY (pdf) The Beirut Banyan EPISODE 81: Nassim Nicholas Taleb &amp; Local Solutions for Lebanon (audio, Soundcloud) @nntaleb BS Busting Showing how [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53,33],"tags":[1763,1767,1769,1770,1768,791,1766,553,1599,1014,1363,1765,1577,1764],"class_list":["post-9078","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","category-video","tag-indiaeconomicconclave","tag-riadponzi","tag-arabists","tag-aramco","tag-bret-weinstein","tag-gmos","tag-jaccuse","tag-lebanon","tag-localism","tag-pinker","tag-propagandists","tag-tenure","tag-tetlock","tag-villages"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9078","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9078"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9078\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9081,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9078\/revisions\/9081"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9078"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9078"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9078"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}