{"id":9045,"date":"2019-09-03T23:50:56","date_gmt":"2019-09-04T06:50:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=9045"},"modified":"2019-09-03T23:51:44","modified_gmt":"2019-09-04T06:51:44","slug":"pedophrasty-bs-detection-iq-white-supremacy-weightlifting-data-scientists-behavioral-economics-sunstein-tulsigabbard-plomin-kazan-matheux-harari-gelman-quilletebeciles-argentina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2019\/09\/pedophrasty-bs-detection-iq-white-supremacy-weightlifting-data-scientists-behavioral-economics-sunstein-tulsigabbard-plomin-kazan-matheux-harari-gelman-quilletebeciles-argentina\/","title":{"rendered":"Pedophrasty, BS Detection, IQ, White Supremacy, Weightlifting, Data Scientists, Behavioral Economics, SUNSTEIN, @TulsiGabbard, Plomin, Kazan, Matheux, Harari, Gelman, Quilletebeciles, Argentina"},"content":{"rendered":"

The insidious racism of Mary Beard and the \u201cdiversity\u201d operators<\/a>\u00a0Medium<\/p>\n

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@nntaleb A sample of the fights between instructors https:\/\/twitter.com\/diomavro\/status\/1143888289763647488?s=21 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:19 AM – 3 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Scholarships are open for the Oct 28 session, RWRI 12 http:\/\/Www.realworldrisk.com <\/a>\u00a0 PS @VergilDen is an instructor. https:\/\/twitter.com\/vergilden\/status\/784063189457797120 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@NClibbens @nntaleb Cost and time estimates overrun. Where I have I read about that problem? #incerto https:\/\/twitter.com\/bbcbreaking\/status\/1168853263900467200 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:07 AM – 3 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@thousandairefx @nntaleb Rent seekers! https:\/\/twitter.com\/JakeVeigelMD\/status\/1168918972055609344 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@vvv_ilya A few months ago I’ve been traveling to CH considering the opening of a Swiss company. At the airport, I started reading Skin in the Game by @nntaleb and in a few mins met Mr. Taleb! Why I’m telling this story now? Because I just got YouHodler SA registered! It was a sign pic.twitter.com\/THuxzDcmyx<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:09 AM – 3 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@GuruAnaerobic Tony Blair is a psychopath. He’s a psychopath with no shame. He’s a psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy psychopath with no shame and no morals. He’s a greedy, lying, psychopath with no shame and no morals. https:\/\/twitter.com\/JonnyGeller\/status\/1168543086756188160 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 25 years of Calabrese lessons, ~ 15 lessons a year. pic.twitter.com\/fTVZ6JyS9u<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:12 AM – 3 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Pedophrasty https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Principia_Politica <\/a>\u00a0 https:\/\/twitter.com\/JB_Goldstein\/status\/1168846225342435330 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:21 AM – 3 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@noemie_issan J’adore quand @nntaleb insulte en fran\u00e7ais. Cela ne manque pas de sel “Con fini” est une de mes insules prefer\u00e9es, avec “imb\u00e9cile heureux” https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1168845474406785035 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The great news from this is that Malaysia is a Sunni majority country. Extremely encouraging. https:\/\/twitter.com\/bopinion\/status\/1168052854638206976 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:20 AM – 3 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb EAST MED PHILOLOGY DU JOUR Question: Can “Yes” in Lebanese (mbala) is come from the Yes in Persian (\u0628\u0644\u0647) than the negation in Semitic: (“\u0628\u0644\u0627”=”without”)? Permalink<\/a> 9:33 AM – 2 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb SITG is not just disincentives but, centrally, FILTERING. It bankrupts incompetent pple and remove them from the system so they stop harming others. https:\/\/twitter.com\/BzhClair\/status\/1168541504710893568 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:37 AM – 2 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Extreme Value Theory: How Pareto=> Fr\u00e9chet, a simple demonstration. pic.twitter.com\/zrkkykzL1z<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:20 AM – 2 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Meanwhile it is all probabilistic so far. The Anatolian hypothesis is just much stronger. pic.twitter.com\/3scUh6NXln<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:50 AM – 2 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 101 BS THINGS TAUGHT TO STUDENTS, 15 That Indo European languages were born in the Eurasian Pontic-Caspian steppes\/Northern Caucasus. Much higher possibility they were born in East-Med, Anatolia. pic.twitter.com\/avls6ZtvNS<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:08 AM – 2 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4) The theory is that Aramaic entered Egypt with the Persians who used it as a lingua franca. But there were numerous pockets of Aramaic-writing Jews (hence other Levantines\/Anatolians). But the DNA story makes everything else fragile! Permalink<\/a> 4:17 AM – 2 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3) Something for master historical detective @Safaitic to help us with. Permalink<\/a> 3:52 AM – 2 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) Also further coincidences: that the DNA of the mummies is turning out to be Levantine\/Anatolian, not Egyptian. And Tell Amarina was in Akkadian. Permalink<\/a> 3:47 AM – 2 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Things I learned this year: There is a thing called Egyptian Aramaic. I was wondering why Egyptian say “mayya” for water & other Levantinisms. pic.twitter.com\/XYYcvIzaAD<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:16 AM – 2 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (“Zamat bi-risho” mush j\u00e9y\u00e9 min rish\u00e9 bass mnil sery\u00e9n\u00e9 “bi raso”, “rish”=ras.) Permalink<\/a> 10:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Zamatna. Permalink<\/a> 10:26 AM – 1 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@rorysutherland The reason this ergodicity thing is useful to marketers is that it explains why they often feel lonely: the managerial-financial aggregated snapshot view of a business lies at 90-degrees to the customer’s experience of a business over time. https:\/\/twitter.com\/ole_b_peters\/status\/1167775571268554752 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:55 AM – 1 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Second version pic.twitter.com\/G6JZ6DaGKF<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:51 AM – 1 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@vtchakarova The DNC would rather lose than nominate Tulsi Gabbard. \u2018Gabbard actually has skin-in-the-game. She fought for \u2014 and earned \u2014 everything she\u2019s achieved.\u2019 cc @nntaleb #SITG #TulsiGabbard https:\/\/spectator.us\/dnc-lose-nominate-tulsi-gabbard\/ <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/uejnoDPZNW”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/uejnoDPZNW Permalink<\/a> 1:29 AM – 1 Sep 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Is there a nonBS education outside of STEM, say in the humanities? Yes, classical languages + Heb\/Aramaic\/Ar\/Sanscrit. French used to select on skills in Latin, not just because of access to texts. It\u2019s because to be really good at Latin one must have read of lot of #Lindy stuff. Permalink<\/a> 2:26 PM – 31 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Corrected finally. Thanks friends for the detection! pic.twitter.com\/syjpKhIc02<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:22 PM – 31 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Most influential story, heard when I was a beginning trader: Big trader M runs into a junior in the bathroom. M:”Whatyoudoing today?” “Just bought this bond, Broker A recommended it” M kept shouting “But he’s a f** broker, a f** broker” & fired the trader while in the bathroom. Permalink<\/a> 12:40 PM – 31 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The #1 skill set is BS detection. Jaffer @Jaffer22915438 fughodaboudit because it is very, very natural to him. https:\/\/twitter.com\/Jaffer22915438\/status\/1167119565106614280 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:09 PM – 31 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Another 2 mistakes: limits ->0 not 1. Permalink<\/a> 11:50 AM – 31 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Oops. I changed symbols from \\eta to \\epsilon when I turned the page. Corrected pic.twitter.com\/NFCepkfFbU<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:36 AM – 31 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Probability du jour: Why you can’t use regression with fat tails. Showing the biases in psychobullshit studies, among others. Added a section to my next book. For error correction. pic.twitter.com\/T54cUxjj6v<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@TerrenceMaldick Reading indiscriminately > everything. Best @nntaleb advice ever is: fuck school, just go to a library and \u201cfreestyle read\u201d to ur heart\u2019s content. Why? Because reading pre-ordained books makes u only enjoy reading a LITTLE. Freestyle reading teaches u to LOVE reading. Amen Permalink<\/a> 7:31 AM – 31 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Autocrat meant, initially, free. https:\/\/twitter.com\/stratiskarad\/status\/1167726291430326272 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:47 AM – 31 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb New section in book: Thin Tails + Fat Tails = Fat Tails, no matter the ratios in the mixing. pic.twitter.com\/S3YutONHJs<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:31 PM – 30 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Typo: they are power law distributed low exponent <2. It is easy to find massaging in the data. Permalink<\/a> 1:37 PM – 30 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@NealPortenza @nntaleb of all the things you’ve taught me (fat tails, barbell distribution, risk etc), the one thing I remain most grateful for? Squid ink. Allora… pic.twitter.com\/kfejEs7k7l<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:52 PM – 30 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@ggalexsava pic.twitter.com\/z2FOmcOda9<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:57 AM – 30 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@black_swan_man The accuracy of a forecast is measured only in profits. #blackswanman #theblackswanman @NateSilver538 @FiveThirtyEight @realDonaldTrump @POTUS @HillaryClinton #forecasterrors #elections pic.twitter.com\/4xiVxiiHOC<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:08 AM – 30 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Apprenticeship: law was not really a university thing. You learn working with doers. #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com\/nhLa0fa6ie<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:40 AM – 30 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Rossy CDG. pic.twitter.com\/GFTlqAVA3t<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:55 AM – 30 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In matters of politics (and love), “never” means “soon”. https:\/\/twitter.com\/JasonMBrodsky\/status\/1167384624554749952 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:33 AM – 30 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Squared residuals reveal the Winsorizing. They are a power low but someone did something funny to the data. pic.twitter.com\/cShdc0KfSD<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:26 AM – 30 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@Raddish27 @nntaleb jealous much? #Croatia #ink #Vrbosca pic.twitter.com\/OQ2TOogfrQ<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:43 PM – 29 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@BLebnene W hode kamen al3aab kruute bil Libnene: Le3beh 3a Krouteh, Zello ma T2ello, Min El Ghoul (ssuwar min Multiverse, Hamra). pic.twitter.com\/GxbCpj3Bnd<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:15 AM – 29 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Here we go again. The replication crisis is now hitting IQ studies… Used the same approach as I did with fakescholar @sapinker, under recommendation by @yaneerbaryam: first use THEIR own data, then proceed to uncovering theoretical flaws. pic.twitter.com\/kQQ3EwFcxh<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:28 AM – 29 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I find it EXTREMELY racist and offensive to group all non Northern Europeans, or people from non EU members as a single group of “minorities”, where one can substitute for another. https:\/\/medium.com\/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics\/the-insidious-racism-of-mary-beard-et-al-8b6b768b4575 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:43 PM – 28 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mystery solved. They “manufactured” IQ scores in the NLS79, from “correlation”. Data invalid, only acceptable one is WLS. pic.twitter.com\/IrQz0Dtc3B<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:57 PM – 28 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For those who (thankfully) don’t know what Jesuitic casuistry is, see below. (BTW my father and grandfather were educated by Jesuits; it has been my dream —for years — to find a Jesuit casuist for a good Twitter fight). pic.twitter.com\/HCVSE4eM41<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:51 PM – 28 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Send me a photo?” There was a time my childhood, when Jesuit priests had 1) erudition, 2) scholarship, 3) knew science &, most of all, 4) When they engaged in *jesuit* casuistry, they were VASTLY more refined in argument: simply, they weren’t THAT easy to catch. Permalink<\/a> 1:38 PM – 28 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fake! St Augustine was a Med. He looked no different from any Sicilian or Maltese. Africa meant “Southern (West) Med”. https:\/\/twitter.com\/JamesMartinSJ\/status\/1166701067595407361 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:56 AM – 28 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Finally, the IQ question is far, far too simple! Someone incompetent massaged the data at some National Bureau in Washington & psychologists have been using it because it is more favorable to the IQ case. The NLS data is fake. See the blue, compared to Gaussian & Orange (WLS) pic.twitter.com\/tVvZ4O9EFD<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:47 AM – 28 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Wiki explains Mutual Information more accurately. Key: it works under NONLINEARITIES. And it is additive. And it is concrete in a betting sense. And it is … ergodic! (Enters the Kelly criterion). pic.twitter.com\/mDTYxHlG4F<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:16 AM – 28 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@thackerpd Exclusive: #Monsanto used former top DOJ official involved in Epstein deal to quash felony case by @adamzagorin & @schwellenbach via @YahooNews https:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/exclusive-monsanto-used-former-doj-lawyer-involved-in-epstein-case-to-quash-felony-charges-090028623.html <\/a>\u00a0 #Monsanto just can’t stay out of the news. ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/vzDYgfAWeA”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/vzDYgfAWeA Permalink<\/a> 6:08 AM – 28 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb >150 million “Europeans” are Meds. Meds are a different group. https:\/\/twitter.com\/Philosophy_Net\/status\/1166677480305909760?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:51 AM – 28 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The term “white supremacy” is a terrible misnomer; 1) white is indicative of purity not color & 2) does not map to what is called “white” (Caucasian\/Western Eurasian) or light skinned (many Asians are light skinned), only to NorthWestern Europe. Best term as replacement: Permalink<\/a> 4:25 AM – 28 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Also, from Zakorsky’s data, turns out that I was correct (in spite of blog posts by incompetent “data scientists”): Correlation is much lower for higher income. Actually not existent. pic.twitter.com\/USGKIQHcDY<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:03 AM – 28 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@arrington \u201cIf your anger decreases with time, you did injustice; if it increases you suffered injustice\u201d – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 6:26 PM – 27 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Now entropy methods, Mutual Information, i.e. “how much does someone’s IQ tell you about his\/her wealth or income?” or “how much more can you bet on Wealth knowing IQ or vice versa). Answer: “zero”. pic.twitter.com\/aw5JeeDoXq<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:26 AM – 27 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb On the NY-Continent flight, only 6-7 h.: people eat dinner, then 4 hours later, are served breakfast “so they get strength”. You even have to request explicitly that they do NOT wake you up for breakfast. Permalink<\/a> 3:41 AM – 27 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb #Antifragile https:\/\/twitter.com\/Mangan150\/status\/1166093473910415360 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:32 AM – 27 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In real weightlifting (no-machines), you largely work out your neural system. It requires yuuuge concentration to push a piece of metal over your head. & it is exhilarating, like a street fight. Low-intensity “routines” on gym treadmills dull your mind, turn you into an academic Permalink<\/a> 2:30 AM – 27 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am intolerant of BS vendors, even when they are right. And always tolerant of scholars, even when they are wrong. Permalink<\/a> 1:35 AM – 27 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Looked at the NLS used by Zagorsky, thanks to Beyon Miloyan. Data is invalid, though results similar to ones from WLS. IQ is truncated, income is cooked up. People in Finance learn how to ferret out statistical cooking in <9 minutes of examination. pic.twitter.com\/oRAYJM616p<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:23 AM – 27 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb And the jacknife shows my data is clean. pic.twitter.com\/dScs8mKiat<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:01 PM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb And minutes later, Donaldo got into negotiation mode! https:\/\/twitter.com\/peterbakernyt\/status\/1166007859064266755?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:20 PM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK I did my OWN data, using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Got R^2 of .01 and .02. Yes, .01. Replicates results by @UntergrundmannG Psychologists, anything I am missing? Any pbm with database? Otherwise the IQ-Income statements are total fraud, I mean a monumental fraud. pic.twitter.com\/4bQEeoeyb6<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:56 PM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK I did my OWN data, using the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study. Got R^2 of .01 and .02. Yes, .01. Replicates results by @UntergrundmannG Psychologists, anything I am missing? Any pbm with database? Otherwise the IQ-Income statements are total fraud, I mean a monumental fraud. pic.twitter.com\/4bQEeoeyb6<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:56 PM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@ahshoja Is @realDonaldTrump getting advice from @nntaleb or reading @nntalebbot? https:\/\/twitter.com\/black_swan_man\/status\/1165991391995940864?s=21 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:15 PM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@NonMeek .@otrasenda_AC @trishankkarthik @nntaleb @Vasilis48814362 Finally found the time to finish what I promised: \u201cOliver & Trishank vs Skinny IYI Zombies [#ZIYI].\u201d My interpretation I hope you like it. pic.twitter.com\/6ymiRNUxuG<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@TalebWisdom “Contra the prevailing belief, “success” isn’t being on top of a hierarchy, it is standing outside all hierarchies.” – Nassim Nicholas Taleb in The Bed of Procrustes Permalink<\/a> 9:36 AM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The best so far! Incentives for peace not tawk! https:\/\/twitter.com\/black_swan_man\/status\/1165991391995940864 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:30 AM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman @realDonaldTrump @POTUS #peace #Vienna #Iran #Hayek #Popper #Freud pic.twitter.com\/E7WPHX4S83<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:16 AM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Kam\u00e9n la nfham 3a ba3dan: manna j\u00e9yin la n7k\u00e9 bi shi illa l-lgha. Ma fi 3ila2a bi shghl\u00e9 l t\u00e9n\u00e9 (w ktb\u00e9). https:\/\/twitter.com\/BLebnene\/status\/1165875395666874369 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:12 AM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (cont) Now thanks to raw data, I am uncovering something >> more sinister in IQ research. When the slope is + but R^2 is terrible they only show the slope. When R^2 is high but the slope is ~0, they show R^2. When both are bad, they truncate the data, which increases R^2. Permalink<\/a> 5:55 AM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (cont) https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1165945723587895297?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:22 AM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Just to confirm, the thread by a few IQ “data scientists” (who don’t understand R^2) nitpicking my piece is BS. All noise. https:\/\/twitter.com\/UntergrundmannG\/status\/1165925167798710272?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:21 AM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For those who think behavioral economics has been “helpful” (outside consulting fees), some news. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1164138535919718400?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:49 AM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To express the trade-off from iatrogenics in a simple heuristic: Take no medicine that does not make you live longer. #antifragile Permalink<\/a> 3:45 AM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Status is zero-sum game. Money is not in free economies. https:\/\/twitter.com\/naval\/status\/1165834035601362945 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:46 AM – 26 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@MulusewGerb Our 3rd Scientific colloquium titled ‘Antifragile and health care system in Ethiopia’ will be held in October. The idea is based on seminal work of @nntaleb and our speaker will b @MillaAugestine. @Elias_Yesuf @LegeseDadi @ateklu72 #missitnot #antifragile #robustness Permalink<\/a> 11:47 PM – 25 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tabula rasa. Let us say someone zapped all books and papers published since 1900 in psychology. Everything. Would it carry the smallest negative impact on your life? Permalink<\/a> 3:50 PM – 25 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@mikeandallie Today’s blog -> Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids: https:\/\/mikesmathpage.wordpress.com\/2019\/08\/25\/explaining-some-statistical-ideas-from-nassim-taleb-to-kids\/ <\/a>\u00a0 #math #mathchat Permalink<\/a> 2:37 PM – 25 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb SUNSTEIN, my model for the IYI, w\/the rigor of an artichoke. Master BS busting applied statistician Andrew Gelman has been dunking on him. At the bottom, Sunstein believes research in psychology should be like a business franchise, to defend by all means. https:\/\/statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu\/2019\/08\/24\/more-on-why-cass-sunstein-should-be-thanking-not-smearing-people-who-ask-for-replications\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:30 PM – 25 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3)Jewish Aramaic:ambiguous \u05e9\u05d4\u05d3 or \u05d4\u05d3\u05e1 but no apparent link witness = martyr as in Greek. So must be a Christian tradition; supicion that Greek => Christian Aramaic, not reverse. Now entered Arabic \u0634\u0647\u064a\u062f via Syriac. Note “Kornet L Sawda” is corruption of Kornet Shhod\u00e9. pic.twitter.com\/EDx7Opjx3b<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:21 PM – 25 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntalebbot “the best horses lose when they compete with slower ones, and win against better rivals.” – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 11:30 AM – 25 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) Same in Christian Aramaic: Shhoda=witness and martyr, from the Greek version. Looking for the Jewish\/Babylonian Aramaic use. https:\/\/twitter.com\/aldertrack\/status\/1165690600504659970?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:29 AM – 25 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Retranslated; “For the Egyptians, no one illiterate can be a witness”. https:\/\/twitter.com\/sentantiq\/status\/1165687785790926848 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:12 AM – 25 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The statements: + > 95% of lethal diseases have a genetic etiology. + > 95% of deaths from disease are environmental. are not incompatible. @PZalloua explained that real world #SITG disciplines (Medicine) don’t take the works of “evolutionary”\/DNA (pple a la Plomin) v. seriously. Permalink<\/a> 10:24 AM – 25 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@mikeandallie Explaining some statistical ideas from Nassim Taleb to kids: https:\/\/mikesmathpage.wordpress.com\/2019\/08\/25\/explaining-some-statistical-ideas-from-nassim-taleb-to-kids\/ <\/a>\u00a0 #math #mathchat Permalink<\/a> 8:08 AM – 25 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb At the geneticist @PZalloua\u2019s place in Marounistan. Not a single Byzantine church in the entire zone! Rumophobic but gorgeous scenery. pic.twitter.com\/1peIVF9mzA<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:10 AM – 25 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Fundamental Tail Asymmetry: an illustration using the drop in MERVAL, of how you can accept, never really reject fat tails unless you have some physical law bounding deviations. Adding to the book. [It is Popperian falsification applied to inference] pic.twitter.com\/9vB1fTYrjL<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:55 PM – 24 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Usually, when I go after BS vendors on Twitter, they gain followers. Not here. Need a new BS-vending target both as public service & to make my journey between the republics of Tatarstan & Northern Phoenicia more entertaining. Any suggestion? https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monsantobuster\/status\/1165002900155850753 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:55 AM – 24 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@GaricMoran 1000 PHD’s in economics went to Jackson Hole to figure out how to fix the world economy; yet, not one pointed out the historical fact that the USA grew twice as fast under a Gold standard when 0 PHD’s in economics set interest rates and instead free market capitalism set rates! Permalink<\/a> 5:13 PM – 23 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Orthodox church next to a mosque in Kazan\u2019s Kremlin. pic.twitter.com\/m5pY6CAo6e<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:48 AM – 23 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb They are still looking for holes in my IQ is nonsense argument. https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:34 AM – 23 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Every dollar made by a former politician or civil servant thanks to the fame and connections imparted by the office belongs to the taxpayer. ” PRINCIPIA POLITICA https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Principia_Politica <\/a>\u00a0 https:\/\/twitter.com\/evankirstel\/status\/1164575263293956096 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:15 AM – 23 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@bulat_abdrkhmnv @nntaleb \u043f\u043e\u0441\u0435\u0442\u0438\u043b \u041a\u0430\u0437\u0430\u043d\u044c \u0438 @WorldSkillsKZN \u0438 \u043f\u043e\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438\u043b\u0441\u044f \u0441\u0432\u043e\u0438\u043c \u0432\u0438\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435\u043c \u0432\u0437\u0433\u043b\u044f\u0434\u0430 \u0432 \u0431\u0443\u0434\u0443\u0449\u0435\u0435 pic.twitter.com\/03i5qkkR5g<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:57 AM – 23 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@TimurShagivalee Wealth comes from technical skills, not from universities \u0411\u043b\u0430\u0433\u043e\u0441\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u044f\u043d\u0438\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0441\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438\u0442 \u0438\u0437 \u0442\u0435\u0445\u043d\u0438\u0447\u0435\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0445 \u043d\u0430\u0432\u044b\u043a\u043e\u0432, \u0430 \u043d\u0435 \u0438\u0437 \u0443\u043d\u0438\u0432\u0435\u0440\u0441\u0438\u0442\u0435\u0442\u043e\u0432 @nntaleb #WorldSkillsKazan2019 100%! pic.twitter.com\/BybvnJDRMG<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:14 AM – 23 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntalebbot “In science you need to understand the world; in business you need others to misunderstand it.” – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 4:31 PM – 22 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Olympiads of techn\u00e9 (vs epistem\u00e9): no BS real world skills vs college w\/humanities lecktshurers. pic.twitter.com\/TvKrafX5PH<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb News from Kazan: Russians are opening a new university with an expiration date based on comment in #Antifragile. Starts in 2020, ends in 2035. May restart then under a new adaptive program. #worldskills https:\/\/2035.university <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:44 AM – 22 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@TulsiGabbard “As president I\u2019ll end the failed war on drugs, legalize marijuana, end cash bail, and ban private prisons and bring about real criminal justice reform. I\u2019ll crack down on the overreaching intel agencies and big tech monopolies who threaten our civil liberties and free speech.” pic.twitter.com\/oDMVxbmFbJ<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:35 AM – 22 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb By policy, if my BS detector makes me go after someone very hard, it is BECAUSE I know his\/her work. For instance, I read everything from Pinker. Psychs are idiots. It is almost never the reverse. pic.twitter.com\/Mt3glSucVO<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:15 AM – 22 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Looked at Plomin’s work. 1-Knows 0 abt correlation (misses on linearity, transitivity, etc.) 2-Knows 0 abt error propagation & dimensionality, basically multivariate probability. 3-Grossly overestimates heredity (via pairwise twin studies) 4-Doesn’t get IQ score !=intelligence https:\/\/twitter.com\/WiringTheBrain\/status\/1164438700891213824 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:57 AM – 22 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@JoostvanderLeij You measure xG for 10K players, then count their goals scored. 2000 of them are dead. Dead players score 0 on xG and 0 on goals. The rest have the xG uncorrelated to the goals. What is the spurious correlation xG\/goals? Answer: 37% Adapted from @nntaleb https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/39797871\/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:23 AM – 22 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan. Permalink<\/a> 9:36 PM – 21 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@financequant Anyone who had attended the Real World Risk Institute #RWRI seminar led by @nntaleb et al. would already know this. The detailed example we give is a simple discrete recursion that reproduces the fractal structure of the human lung. 1\/2 https:\/\/twitter.com\/imleslahdin\/status\/1164288469545316353 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:18 PM – 21 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb People aren’t getting my point. Nothing to do with causation. Correlation requires linearity, does’nt allow subsampling and is very nonlinear. https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/39797871\/Common_Misapplications_and_Misinterpretations_of_Correlation_in_Social_Science_ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:31 AM – 21 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@RandPaul IT SHOULD BE GETTING AUDITED @realDonaldTrump! https:\/\/twitter.com\/realdonaldtrump\/status\/1164174364994080768 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:28 AM – 21 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am getting tired of pple lecturing me on \u201cItalian\u201d expressions. \u201cGabish\u201d is to capisci what \u201cgabagool\u201d is to capicola, and \u201cavangool\u201d to … Permalink<\/a> 8:23 AM – 21 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@Marvin_3 This has nothing to do with causation. Can you please stop making @nntaleb points for him, sounding like a PARROT. https:\/\/www.dropbox.com\/s\/18pjy7gmz0hl6q7\/Correlation.pdf?dl=0 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:39 AM – 21 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ignore. The article has been generalized by eugenists to genetics & heritability. All it can scientifically confirm is the trivial notion that some people are betters than others given same practice in a specific environment. You can’t get to DNA without yuuuge BS. https:\/\/twitter.com\/mcowartlaw\/status\/1164148720109268992 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:30 AM – 21 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is the fundamental metrics that social scientists don’t seem to get but talk abt like PARROTS. What is correlation? It’s the average of 2 normalized variables MULTIPLIED by one another. In some NARROW circumstances it expresses a statistical association. Which ones? Permalink<\/a> 5:20 AM – 21 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How Behavioral Economics is Dangerous BS. Very dangerous. pic.twitter.com\/nEXvAudTj1<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:33 AM – 21 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb India, please stay away from Cass Sunstein. He is the person behind my original IYI (Intellectual Yet Idiot) article. https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577 <\/a>\u00a0 https:\/\/twitter.com\/BMGFIndia\/status\/1164109205600526338 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:15 AM – 21 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@EricRyderMorgan Didn’t expect to find trail running advocacy in Antifragile @nntaleb ! https:\/\/twitter.com\/Choosing2Thrive\/status\/1164009447964008449 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:03 PM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Corrected pic.twitter.com\/vRBlp3Jua3<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:06 PM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends, this is the first draft of my forward for Cippola’s Basic Laws of Stupidity. For comments. Thanks. pic.twitter.com\/1QtL00EtoB<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:51 PM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Edit: 1830. Permalink<\/a> 12:11 PM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A Must! + Arithmetic didn’t initially develop for scientists, but for traders\/accountants + Before 1930 Mathematics was about the real world. Then it got concerned with abstraction + Texts hide experiments in math leading to theorems. Ramanujan did experimental math. Even Euler. https:\/\/twitter.com\/stephen_wolfram\/status\/1159131413511311361 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:43 AM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@SJosephBurns True wealth consists in: Worriless sleeping Clear conscience Reciprocal gratitude Absence of envy Good appetite Muscle strength Physical energy Frequent laughs No meals alone No gym classes Some physical labor No meeting rooms Periodic surprises – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 9:31 AM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2030s? https:\/\/twitter.com\/Decafquest\/status\/1163558762575273984 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:51 AM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I spent my life hearing economists telling me \u201cnothing new; we know about convexity\u201d; then they write an rquation missing the fact that a function of an average can\u2019t be an average of functions. Same with fat tails. https:\/\/twitter.com\/stratiskarad\/status\/1163832062220148736 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:20 AM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@buchmanster Oh cool another picture of a young @nntaleb from when he traded chicken futures https:\/\/twitter.com\/kareem_carr\/status\/1163551872457805825 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:01 AM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@ara_anderson Today\u2019s @mathonco research in progress is a double act from @mathoncbro @StroblMAR on The (anti-)fragility of adaptive therapy! Work inspired by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com\/FPbAbhy7FE \u2013 at Vincent A. Stabile Research Building<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:15 AM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I went after Fannie-Mae in 2003 https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2003\/08\/07\/business\/fannie-mae-s-loss-risk-is-larger-computer-models-show.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:52 AM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (cont) I am much stronger than I was at 26. I know a lot more than I did at 26, after eliminating news, only #Lindy books. I speak more languages than I did at 26. I am more independent than I was at 26. but, mostly I made so many mistakes I have more scars than I had at 26. pic.twitter.com\/kw1sraiM8p<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:50 AM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb ANTIFRAGILE https:\/\/www.parcodellavaldorcia.com\/calendar-event\/forme-nel-verde-2019-antifragile-inaugurazione-27-luglio\/ <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/7MJ9qNML8S”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/7MJ9qNML8S Permalink<\/a> 4:54 AM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Secrets of longevity: bad birth records. Les secrets des 5 r\u00e9gions championnes de la long\u00e9vit\u00e9 https:\/\/w.lpnt.fr\/2330574t <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:46 AM – 20 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@TalebWisdom “You can easily tell a Northener: he\/she feels guilty doing nothing. Even doing nothing for them is programmed, labeled, and has to be learned using some Yoga instructor.” – Nassim Taleb #yoga Permalink<\/a> 2:34 PM – 19 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Long time ago, an option trader without facial hair, deadlifts & a twitter account. pic.twitter.com\/T49rJLK0GT<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:12 PM – 19 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Simple 1D problem. Assume 25 siblings have a genetic predisposition to Type 2 diabetes. In a hunter gatherer envir, they will show no correlations w\/r to diseases. Move them to Kansas city => high correlation, hence “genetic determinism”. Now think how this blows up in higher D. Permalink<\/a> 11:23 AM – 19 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (For the stickler:) matheux= “matheux mais pas mathematicien” Permalink<\/a> 10:56 AM – 19 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nabilshadman Plausible scenario in jobs without skin in the game. @nntaleb would probably agree. pic.twitter.com\/jVKmVbcxMh<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:44 AM – 19 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Twin studies vastly overestimate heredity: they yield different results from field studies. Reason: they fail to get 2nd order effects & complex interactions, dominant under convexity. Plomin’s studies for IQ are even worse; yuuge flaws mathematically. https:\/\/www.independentsciencenews.org\/health\/the-great-dna-data-deficit\/ <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/NVi7LU5LfM”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/NVi7LU5LfM Permalink<\/a> 5:59 AM – 19 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Scholar with #skininthegame https:\/\/twitter.com\/moudhy\/status\/1163104799665139718 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:40 AM – 19 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb *going into more and more abstract objects.* Permalink<\/a> 7:25 PM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3\/ Real mathematicians are obsessed with abstraction, going into more and more abstract. “Matheux” like contact and feedback with the concrete. During the Soviet era, mathematicians were forced to prove *some* connection to things, how they were helping the building of the USSR Permalink<\/a> 7:00 PM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@VergilDen \u201cBullshit is convex to the number of variables you have.” #RWRI Permalink<\/a> 2:54 PM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1075785890935513088?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:48 PM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Make sure you read this twice. Explain the charlatanism in Plomin’s book. Some pple have know for years that higher dimensions cancel predictability (curse of dim). Now they are finally figuring it out in genetics and neuroscience. https:\/\/www.quantamagazine.org\/new-turmoil-over-predicting-the-effects-of-genes-20190423\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:47 PM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/ I learned from a long career in math finance to never hire mathematicians (PhD in math) to solve math problems or toy with actual equations. You get a better payoff with a “matheux” who studied (undergrad) electrical engineering in India, Russia, Lebanon, or Brazil. Permalink<\/a> 1:55 PM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1\/ The French have a distinction mathematician vs. “matheux”. + The mathematicia(e)n is like someone who composes music; doesn’t have to perform, be good w\/instruments. Invents math. + The matheux is someone who plays an instrument; can be a virtuoso but doesn’t compose music. Permalink<\/a> 1:45 PM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/only-the-rich-are-poisoned-the-preference-of-others-c35ddf65cf68 <\/a>\u00a0 https:\/\/twitter.com\/marcos_moret\/status\/1163174948443164672 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:11 PM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Real World Risk Institute We’re opening full and partial scholarships for #RWRI 12. October 28 in NYC. http:\/\/www.RealWorldRisk.com <\/a>\u00a0 https:\/\/twitter.com\/VergilDen\/status\/1163150438121824256 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:26 AM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For those who don’t get it: governance declines with scale. Some places more than others. The dream of a “strong nation” that plays geopolitics instead of focusing on law, to facilitate services & commerce is a Baathist disease. Permalink<\/a> 7:06 AM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I block anyone who cites Harari as a reference for anything. Worse than Pinker. Gabish? Permalink<\/a> 6:55 AM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR If you introduce unbiased noise in birth records, (keeping average life expectancy the same), you yuuuugely increase the number of fake centenarians. Why? Because the tail doesn’t care about the average as much as the imprecision! https:\/\/www.biorxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/704080v1 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:18 AM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Michael Gove is correct. I was told that the movie is an excellent subtitute for the book. https:\/\/twitter.com\/thinkdefence\/status\/1163065296745353222 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:47 AM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@OtisManousakos I\u2019m starting to empathise with @nntaleb in the vicious way he goes after people. Fuck niceties. The people who think fake meat will just get invented sans consequences are either naive ideologues or sociopaths who think it\u2019s fun to tamper with this billions old ecosystem. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1162857527358476289 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:20 AM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb P-Hacking and the distribution of p-values, a 3 year old result still not understood by social “scientists”. https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:24 AM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Please stop the “correlation is not causation” mantra. It’s worse: correlation is not correlation. https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=D6CxfBMUf1o&t=60s <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:03 AM – 18 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@TulsiGabbard We’re at 162,648! Let’s surprise Tulsi when she gets back from National Guard active duty on August 26 by reaching 170,000! Let’s show her how much grassroots support there truly is for her and for her message of peace and prosperity for all! \u2014TeamTulsi #TULSI2020 Permalink<\/a> 4:51 PM – 17 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb https:\/\/math.stackexchange.com\/q\/3326461\/88078?stw=2 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:54 PM – 17 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There are three types of people. 1) Those who say eliminating mosquitoes is a great thing, book a trip to Alaska\/Siberia. 2) Those who reflect, & look at second order effects, particularly when those exist: the cause of the Great Famine under Mao. 3) Those who get convexity. Permalink<\/a> 3:43 PM – 17 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb So many have sent me this tweet; here is my answer. Remember transfats? And another 0000s of these “obviously” safe thingies? I am really scared to live in a society in which people take @sapinker seriously. On anything. That’s all I have to say. pic.twitter.com\/PBEs5vMVz6<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:34 PM – 17 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@engler_j What a lovely and accurate summary of my work! by @nntaleb pic.twitter.com\/IU6seSTtJa<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:27 PM – 17 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My Principia Politica is not out yet. Yet its terminology is having some impact! pic.twitter.com\/GMxlIGzxAl<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is what people don’t get: smaller states don’t have minorities and majority rules eradicating them. Too much 19th century thinking. Actually France wanted Germany to be fragmented in 1945; they thought a Federation would be “weak”. https:\/\/twitter.com\/BaalTheGreat\/status\/1162703300141244416?s=20 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:19 AM – 17 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@DrGeneCallahan The Mule: Clint Eastwood becomes cartel\u2019s top drug deliverer by following haphazard schedule. But new guy takes over and makes him follow exact route and timetable. Immediately caught! Over-optimization leads to disaster! @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 6:36 AM – 17 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@spyrosmakrid Dr. Sagner @MichaelSagnerMD and I are finalizing a paper on Uncertainty in Medicine, illustrated by the following two studies on treating mild HBP: One showing benefits and the other harm and a third discovering 396 medical reversals. How can lay people can deal with uncertainty? pic.twitter.com\/QfwJpOSY25<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:33 AM – 17 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Only #Localism works. https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Principia_Politica <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:42 AM – 17 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ireland, Czeck Rep., Slovakia, Croatia, Montenegro, Serbia, Cyprus… People get along better as neighbors than as roommates. Time for Syrians to understand the large Nation-State with “grandeur” & prestige has failed them, destroyed minorities. Small is beautiful. Permalink<\/a> 5:07 AM – 17 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK, incompetence wins over conspiracy. Always assume incompetence first. (There still may be some conspiracy.) https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2019-08-16\/epstein-died-of-suicide-by-hanging-medical-examiner-says?srnd=premium <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:48 AM – 17 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Syria should understand the notion of cutting the cancer & consider some partition East\/West (currently taboo). You cannot spend the next decades taking then retaking Jihadi areas. \u0645\u0627 \u062d\u062f\u0627 \u0642\u0633\u0645 \u0648 \u0646\u062f\u0645! @EHSANI22 https:\/\/twitter.com\/TheArabSource\/status\/1162588630654869505 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:56 AM – 17 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb When you elect a bureaucrat to the presidency, you end up with someone who likes complicating your life with bureaucratic rules. When you elect a real estate dealmaker, you end up with someone who likes to do real-estate deals. Alas, a trade-off. But beats wars. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nytimes\/status\/1162213923673657351 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:50 PM – 16 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntalebbot “Primitive societies are largely free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, dental cavities, economic theories, lounge music, and other modern ailments.” – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 11:30 AM – 16 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb And ignore statements about \u201cmath geniuses with High IQ\u201d. 1- how many high IQ can do math? 2- Ramanujan, Groethendieck, Mandelbrot were horrrrrrrible at standardized tests… has a mystical link to math… Permalink<\/a> 8:34 AM – 16 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Reread and you will find it. Permalink<\/a> 8:08 AM – 16 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A metric that ONLY detects “below average” will show 80% correlation with performance. (corrected typos) pic.twitter.com\/5N0K0mCDpP<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:51 AM – 16 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@vtchakarova \u2018Skin in the Game\u2019 and \u2018Fooled by Randomness\u2019 by @nntaleb in Sofia, Bulgaria. pic.twitter.com\/TKrYmnGtWq<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:50 AM – 16 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR A clearer presentation showing how a metric for disease can falsely masquerade as a metric for performance because “correlation” is not appropriate (and should NEVER be used) under nonlinearity. Something the Quillettebeciles don’t get. pic.twitter.com\/whcdbdcO2M<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:39 AM – 16 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@garyruskin #Monsanto acts like it has a lot to hide. It had a 20-page #PR plan on how to “minimize impact of” and “minimize media coverage and publicity of” @careygillam’s book Whitewash, about Monsanto, #glyphosate and #Roundup. http:\/\/bit.ly\/2Kz7oko <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:01 PM – 15 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Meanwhile I\u2019ve blocked trolls on both sides. https:\/\/twitter.com\/vergilden\/status\/1162112002271170560 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:39 PM – 15 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Charles Murray is considered a Galileo of the racisticists, someone who provides scientific truths. He is just an intellectual fraud. These mistakes are on a SINGLE page in his book. https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/customer-reviews\/R3VL4SLVS56LB9\/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=006019247X <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/vPm0tIyLNS”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/vPm0tIyLNS Permalink<\/a> 1:56 PM – 15 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman is the #1 BS buster in social science. https:\/\/twitter.com\/Marvin_3\/status\/1162074581554872321 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:03 PM – 15 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Review on Amazon. If you are going to be a BS vendor, make sure to not combine it with “race realism” and eugenics. https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/customer-reviews\/R3VL4SLVS56LB9\/ref=cm_cr_srp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=006019247X <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:47 AM – 15 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@RyanHoliday \u201cYou are rich if and only if money you refuse tastes better than money you accept.\u201d Nassim Taleb Permalink<\/a> 8:00 AM – 15 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You are wasting time arguing about universal computation\/Touring machines with the Quilletebeciles neonazis who interpretet as a blank slate argument. The Quilettebeciles don’t even get that you may bolster their argument since in practice there is a yuuge diff betw processors! Permalink<\/a> 7:21 AM – 15 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ignore journos: they can’t property scale moves, put them in perspective. The SP500 is still up >12% on the year. #SkinintheGame: Have to reveal I’ve been short HLF for more than a year. Fear of missing an opportunity, just in case Ackman turns out to be ultimately right. Permalink<\/a> 6:20 AM – 15 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@ArtOrthodox Dormition of the Theotokos #DormitionoftheTheotokos #JesusChrist #Theotokos #MotherofGod #Saints #byzantineorthodoxart #byzantine #icons #paintings #art #history #artwork #artworks pic.twitter.com\/4npa1czwc7<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:19 AM – 15 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@byzantinepower Aspirations of this account: – To extol the spiritual power of Orthodoxy & our ability to create Byz 2.0 Tendencies: – Venice bashing – HRE bashing – mocking idiots – foodpoasting Permalink<\/a> 3:41 AM – 15 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntalebbot “The problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds and books on ornithologists written by birds” – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 4:30 PM – 14 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@sf_LPSP You misunderstand and underestimate Taleb if you think this is any kind of outlierish or burdensome “axe to grind”, or even particularly personal. Taleb’s bread and butter- or rather olive oil- is lopping down logs of bullshit, and the axe is sharp for all comers. Permalink<\/a> 4:09 PM – 14 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Very safe: I stopped in 2010 having dinners with social scientists. https:\/\/twitter.com\/profmarkreed\/status\/1161638008837279745 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:54 PM – 14 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) You can be fooled by people, and you can be fooled by fields. For instance I was fooled by behavioral economics… pic.twitter.com\/Fuh5od8bjB<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:40 AM – 14 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Why universality trumps IQ by @trishankkarthik https:\/\/link.medium.com\/qi3xFAYD4Y <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:57 AM – 14 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Classifying psychology as “science” reminds me of the Reagan Administration’s classification of Ketchup in school cafeterias as “vegetable”. We need to declassify. Permalink<\/a> 10:22 AM – 14 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Asymmetry of BS detector: Friends, there have been many situations where I thought someone was solid, then realized I was mistaken as he turned out to be a bullshitter (e.g. NateS,PT,SP…) Can’t find reverse mistake: pple I thought were bullshitters but turned out to be solid. Permalink<\/a> 7:45 AM – 14 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK, Data. Lesson from Argentina: a distribution can fool you showing thinner tails, never the reverse! Classical Black Swan Problemo See Chapter 2 https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/37221402\/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/y21iI0YVpm”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/y21iI0YVpm Permalink<\/a> 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK, Data. Lesson from Argentina: a distribution can fool you showing thinner tails, never the reverse! Classical Black Swan Problemo See Chapter 2 https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/37221402\/STATISTICAL_CONSEQUENCES_OF_FAT_TAILS_TECHNICAL_INCERTO_COLLECTION_ <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/y21iI0YVpm”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/y21iI0YVpm Permalink<\/a> 4:28 AM – 14 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Anyone saying 17 sigmas about Argentina has a problem. pic.twitter.com\/n8EryQDePU<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:17 AM – 14 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@OtisManousakos And basically read everything from @nntaleb – His sometimes excessive hostility toward obnoxious academia aside, it\u2019s hard for me to disparage him as he reminds me of every fucking Greek uncle I loved. When that phenotype smells bullshit, they tend to be brutal…and hilarious. Permalink<\/a> 2:29 AM – 14 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Dear @WolframResearch, what’s the symbol for the MERVAL? Trying to get data …for obvious reasons. Thanks! pic.twitter.com\/XqCpKfLkkR<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:51 PM – 13 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@gmax1mum Am I the only one that wants a full volume expansion of this section of Skin in the Game? @nntaleb pic.twitter.com\/Gg9LjHi9NS<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:39 PM – 13 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You should prevent Classic Liberalism from being exploited by the eugenists-“race realists” using it from cover for the Sinister agenda, particularly when they use science. Expurgate. Be tough. Liberty doesn’t entail genetic ranking. https:\/\/twitter.com\/Firsou\/status\/1161283291137368064 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:32 AM – 13 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@Firefly_fan Evolution of “Incerto” by @nntaleb (image 1 and 2). Some “affective” anecdote: the smell of black & golden version is very appealling for my hedonic perspective. It seems alive pic.twitter.com\/pEB4vwMDTv<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:26 AM – 13 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Erudition is whatever is not academic in its acquisition and dispensation. In other words, lively, playful, useful, and nonnerdy. https:\/\/twitter.com\/ektrit\/status\/1161290791991611392 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:01 AM – 13 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@ektrit Explaining how Christianity spread when 99.9% of people were illiterate, it comes to mind that Taleb @nntaleb cannot be understood unless Erudition is understood. Permalink<\/a> 7:57 AM – 13 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What does a \u201c(basic) law\u201d mean in economics? Some \u201claws\u201d seem to be empirical, others normative, some deduced from some arbitrary \u201cprinciple\u201d, a few pulled out of a hat. Permalink<\/a> 7:06 AM – 13 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@thebigboulard Via Negativa et Antifragile appliqu\u00e9s \u00e0 l’IT et \u00e0 la Transformation digitale http:\/\/bit.ly\/31KGMD1 <\/a>\u00a0 via @lemagit @philipducellier @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 2:55 AM – 13 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Things are spiraling downward much, much faster than I thought. (This deleted tweet by Lehman Brothers was verified on Google cache; I thought it was a spoof). Next target? Some monstrous BS vending outfit I haven’t targeted yet. pic.twitter.com\/OpWkJWAfeX<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:28 PM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@normonics No. Life is not a game. A game has explicit rules, constraints, win-states. Life does not. At best, implicit ones, but even then not static, not a given. The IQ obsessed have mistaken their little contrived game world with big messy reality. https:\/\/twitter.com\/garettjones\/status\/1161047922793828352 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:01 PM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@MKM_Abdul Meanwhile, a Black Swan quietly landed on Argentina\u2019s stock market with a 48% one-day drop. https:\/\/twitter.com\/business\/status\/1161010919008288769 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:29 PM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Voila! Merci bien. pic.twitter.com\/FpJv1WWhE9<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:35 PM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Cipolla’s def. + stupid: someone who inflicts costs on others while not bringing benefits to himself\/herself, even possibly incurring great costs. + bandit: inflicts costs on others but at some benefits to himself\/herself. The stupid is vaaaaastly more dangerous than the bandit. Permalink<\/a> 12:05 PM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb http:\/\/www.lefigaro.fr\/vox\/economie\/les-etats-unis-doivent-adapter-leur-dispositif-antitrust-aux-geants-d-internet-20190811 <\/a>\u00a0 (Je n’arrive pas a acheter l’article) Permalink<\/a> 11:48 AM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There are always some subtle differences between a book and the corresponding film, owing to the requirements of the medium. https:\/\/twitter.com\/IMAO_\/status\/1160658967825178624 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:38 AM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In other words: Cipolla’s 2nd Law: there is a ratio \\sigma of stupid people, in all professions\/groups\/periods. My Q: is it like econ. inequality, same ratio, but different people? If you came back in 10 y, \\sigma has new people (i.e ergodic). Does the stupid survive in group? Permalink<\/a> 10:22 AM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Cipolla Permalink<\/a> 10:00 AM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Writing a foreword to The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity by Cippola: You always underestimate for any time\/profession # of incompetent pple. Law: No matter how incompetent an editor is, there will be a pool of readers even more stupid who won’t notice. Q: is stupidity ergodic? https:\/\/twitter.com\/sobu_18\/status\/1160946236767264768 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:56 AM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@DonkeyJawPosse Walking via \u2066@nntaleb\u2069 pic.twitter.com\/dB5VuKgx9n<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:08 AM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You hit on something: collective intelligence (groups) is orthogonal to individual ones because of scale transformation. Permalink<\/a> 5:19 AM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@MarekADochnal @nntaleb never disappoints in fighting BS in its every living form. But even he isn\u2019t iPhone-proof: see Murrat in his twit: the hybrid of Murray and Marshal Murat, King of Naples Permalink<\/a> 4:21 AM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Murray also manages to BS about mathematics. A scholar! pic.twitter.com\/loJG4ctyym<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:50 AM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Methods of the loci. If you want to remember math stuff, carry a durable physical notebook with standard theorems\/graphs. You will associate the equation with a physical page. Permalink<\/a> 3:07 AM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There is a book by the Russian psychologist Luria about a prodigy who could remember tons. He mentally used maps 2D ->3D where each object to remember would be placed. When I look at a physical book in my library, I remember the contents! Even more when I hold it in my hands. Permalink<\/a> 2:43 AM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Harder to remember stuff read on a screen. Needs 1 more dimension. https:\/\/twitter.com\/jangold_\/status\/1160836414797492224 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:23 AM – 12 Aug 2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The insidious racism of Mary Beard and the \u201cdiversity\u201d operators\u00a0Medium @nntaleb A sample of the fights between instructors https:\/\/twitter.com\/diomavro\/status\/1143888289763647488?s=21 \u00a0 Permalink 10:19 AM – 3 Sep 2019 @nntaleb Scholarships are open for the Oct 28 session, RWRI 12 http:\/\/Www.realworldrisk.com \u00a0 PS @VergilDen is an instructor. https:\/\/twitter.com\/vergilden\/status\/784063189457797120 \u00a0 Permalink 10:17 AM – 3 Sep 2019 @NClibbens […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1381,53],"tags":[1726,1744,1737,1733,1736,1742,1741,1427,1739,1740,1629,1738,1743,1335,1735,1734],"class_list":["post-9045","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-medium","category-twitter","tag-tulsigabbard","tag-argentina","tag-behavioral-economics","tag-bs-detection","tag-data-scientists","tag-gelman","tag-harari","tag-iq","tag-kazan","tag-matheux","tag-pedophrasty","tag-plomin","tag-quilletebeciles","tag-sunstein","tag-weightlifting","tag-white-supremacy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9045","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9045"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9045\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9048,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9045\/revisions\/9048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9045"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9045"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9045"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}