{"id":9001,"date":"2019-03-09T23:29:40","date_gmt":"2019-03-10T07:29:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=9001"},"modified":"2019-03-09T23:29:40","modified_gmt":"2019-03-10T07:29:40","slug":"iq-pinker-jordan-peterson-statistics-fractal-localism-psychology-tetlock-caplan-edward-said-peter-francopan-julia-galef-tulsi-gabbard-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2019\/03\/iq-pinker-jordan-peterson-statistics-fractal-localism-psychology-tetlock-caplan-edward-said-peter-francopan-julia-galef-tulsi-gabbard-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"IQ, Pinker, Jordan Peterson, Statistics, FRACTAL LOCALISM, Psychology, Tetlock, Caplan, Edward Said, Peter Francopan, Julia Galef, Tulsi Gabbard | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Nassim Nicholas Taleb\u2019s Favorite Literature Books<\/a><\/h4>\n

@nntaleb N7na ldiaspora min fadd\u00e9l latin\u00e9. Bass l3alam juwwa bigakkro gheir shi la2annon t3awwado. Wkam\u00e9n l Yiddish huww\u00e9 Ilman\u00e9 maktub bil 7arf l 3bran\u00e9 nafsl abjadiyy\u00e9. Permalink<\/a> 6:08 AM – 9 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@Extrachelle pic.twitter.com\/gRJ8QYIrxP<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:20 AM – 9 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3am fakk\u00e9r ista3m\u00e9l l7arf l3arab\u00e9 lal n\u00e90-kn3an\u00e9. L\u00e9sh? La2anno fina shwayy shwayy nbay3\u00e9d 3annon, mush fard ddarb\u00e9 –ma3 inno l7arf l latin\u00e9 a2rab 3a 7akiyna. Wma ninsa 2nno l7arf l3arab\u00e9 asslo fini2\u00e9 kamen! Shu ra2ykon? Permalink<\/a> 2:24 AM – 9 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) Orthodoxy reposes on the notion that a) G-d had to become man to suffer and have skin in the game and, more centrally for Orthodoxy, b) Man can become G-d via a merger called theosis BECAUSE G-d had skin in the game: \u0391\u1f50\u03c4\u1f78\u03c2 \u03b3\u1f70\u03c1 \u1f10\u03bd\u03b7\u03bd\u03b8\u03c1\u03ce\u03c0\u03b7\u03c3\u03b5\u03bd, \u1f35\u03bd\u03b1 \u1f21\u03bc\u03b5\u1fd6\u03c2 \u03b8\u03b5\u03bf\u03c0\u03bf\u03b9\u03b7\u03b8\u1ff6\u03bc\u03b5\u03bd Permalink<\/a> 2:52 PM – 8 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@ektrit In Orthodox Theology, humans are higher than angels and higher than all other creatures of God, precisely because God had “skin in the game” by having One Person of the Holy Trinity, Christ, assuming a PERFECT human body. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1104141492627611655 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:14 PM – 8 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Different mafia: without a sense of loyalty, honor and the ironclad committment to deliver on their promises. https:\/\/twitter.com\/johnnysportcoat\/status\/1104140929978589189?s=21 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:13 PM – 8 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Finally, someone who (along with @DrMichaelBonner ) understood Skin in the Game. It makes humans superior to gods. https:\/\/twitter.com\/giles_fraser\/status\/1104005211155283968 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:07 PM – 8 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Cosa Nostra American branch, that is. Permalink<\/a> 11:21 AM – 8 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The mafia has effectively ended. https:\/\/www.nydailynews.com\/new-york\/nyc-crime\/ny-metro-mob-boss-carmine-persico-dies-in-prison-20190307-story.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:04 AM – 8 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@giles_fraser No one should be too big to fail. Not even God. \u2066@nntaleb\u2069 Why God needs skin in the game – UnHerd https:\/\/unherd.com\/2019\/03\/why-god-needs-skin-in-the-game\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:05 AM – 8 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb …and I regretted it. It wasn’t paella at all, squid ink was dry… Permalink<\/a> 3:53 AM – 8 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com\/2DnjVO5ITq<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tom Bartlett, in @chronicle misrepresents the story with @saPinker. Pinker did not answer points on why he fudged Richardson’s data & why his own data DO NOT backup his claim, IN 2 PEER REVIEW articles (so far), bullshitting away from a technical answer. Statistics is hard. pic.twitter.com\/2DnjVO5ITq<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:20 AM – 8 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Squid ink paella in, of all places, Ralleigh-Durham. pic.twitter.com\/DQK1DcwZeB<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:55 PM – 7 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb And it has nothing to do with the video. Permalink<\/a> 2:52 PM – 7 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@RustedOak Every Thursday, @senatorbraun presides over the Senate for 3 hours. Today he explicitly requested his copy of #SkinInTheGame (by @nntaleb) to read while in the big chair. pic.twitter.com\/xKctNRqLyh<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:01 PM – 7 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Put me on the record: Jordan Peterson @jordanbpeterson is a charlatan. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nufflez\/status\/1103735657271345158 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:33 PM – 7 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends In my book on Politics, Localism I answer questions. Anything to suggest here? https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/j0v3RM5GjZ”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/j0v3RM5GjZ Permalink<\/a> 12:18 PM – 7 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I never never never use TED-style words such as \u201cenrich lives\u201d. Never. Fake quote https:\/\/twitter.com\/gbutrous\/status\/1103582034654625793 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:39 AM – 7 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “The only time he forgot about his short height was when he asked his accountant to read out his bank statement, something which he did multiple times a day.” (on Ehud Laniado who just passed during vanity surgery) Permalink<\/a> 2:48 PM – 6 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb FRACTAL LOCALISM Defining complexity and selforganization before explaining socioeconomic LOCALISM pic.twitter.com\/ogO0MC4Nmi<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:19 PM – 6 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@VaniPalomo Skin in the game (?) @nntaleb https:\/\/twitter.com\/jfcarpio\/status\/1103142481665892352 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:53 AM – 6 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) Ended up publishing with an internet startup [2000 bubble!] that gave me \u00bd the royalties to accept my intransigence. Bookstores hardly carried their books. Without @Amazon you would have never heard of me. The internet startup went predictably bust. Got the rights back. Permalink<\/a> 8:46 AM – 6 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Dear unpublished author: Took me 3 years to publish the book. Editors wanted to “improve” the style, remove parables\/fictional char, add charts to make it “more professional”. ~99% of publishers said ~”this book will flop”…& gave reasons. I was stubborn and uncompromising. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1103044166169300994 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:12 AM – 6 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Intergenerational risk management https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1103073842984034304 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:30 PM – 5 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@LPNational Libertarians don’t pander, we support all freedoms, all of the time. pic.twitter.com\/GR9IU4HPrZ<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:20 PM – 5 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fooled by Randomness is apparently a bit Lindy. The book is 18 years old cc:@paulskalas http:\/\/disq.us\/t\/3c9yif9 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:26 PM – 5 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com\/RSMXMuiPf5<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Region Plot to see where lhs-rhs is negative (next) pic.twitter.com\/9BjW4uSRwn<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:42 PM – 5 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Every single fact in the NYT is true. Every bit of news is flase. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1099232862090465281 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:33 AM – 5 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@LIHF_Living All the reasons why you should never take #statins, summed up neatly in one paragraph. From AF by @nntaleb .. pic.twitter.com\/sm5m4h8KED<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:32 AM – 5 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Small workout du jour Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine pic.twitter.com\/5FIq6HiMku<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:54 AM – 5 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Psychologists playing with regression… https:\/\/twitter.com\/Firsou\/status\/1102973930191679500 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:49 AM – 5 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Statistics is hard. Very hard. https:\/\/twitter.com\/KetoAurelius\/status\/1101848406803312640 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:48 AM – 5 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bien sur http:\/\/disq.us\/t\/3c9yif9 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:38 AM – 5 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@DellAnnaLuca The fact that (almost) all degrees have the same duration regardless of the complexity of the underlying field is the best evidence that education has been built around the universities\u2019 needs, not the students\u2019. Permalink<\/a> 12:53 AM – 5 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@AndrewNoymer Born #OTD, 5 March 1938. David A. Freedman (d. 2008). A major figure in statistical science from the 1960s to the first decade of this century. And a wonderful PhD mentor to me. A major inspiration in my professional life. @philipbstark @nntaleb https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/David_A._Freedman <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:22 AM – 5 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Businessman: “Almost half my income comes from one client. I need to markedly increase my business”. Answer: “If you markedly increase your business, you will do well, but half your income will still come from one client. Another client”. #SelfSimilarity #PowerLaws Permalink<\/a> 10:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@Jon__air They think that intelligence is about noticing things are relevant (detecting patterns); in a complex world, intelligence consists in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns). \u2013 Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 7:43 AM – 4 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Two solutions so far, the second is more elegant. pic.twitter.com\/KGL4vVyMre<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:42 AM – 4 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com\/zy2TsepKCP<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:00 AM – 4 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mathematical pushups dujour (Courtesy Romanian Mathematical Magazine) pic.twitter.com\/90eOU5LQzU<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:33 AM – 4 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Psychology has cranks propagandists like @SteveStuWill who: + Keep posting seemingly junk statistics that fail under scrutiny (e.g. IQ doesn’t correlate to income >40K- even at low IQ!) + Keep posing as arbiters of “pseudoscience — while psychology is largely pseudoscience. https:\/\/twitter.com\/DellAnnaLuca\/status\/1102432917714685952 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:24 AM – 4 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@TalebWisdom “Money corrupts those who talk (& write) about it more than those who earn it.” – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 1:36 PM – 3 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Greeeeat news from Lebanon: these 5 women are the pilots for the Lebanese airline. (Though it is misnamed M-E Airlines rather than what it should be, East-Mediterranean Airlines or, best, “Med Air”). pic.twitter.com\/2ju0rsUDeG<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:01 PM – 3 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends, how about this probability-driven definition of complex systems before delving into FRACTAL LOCALISM? @yaneerbaryam @normonics pic.twitter.com\/X5qyOHop70<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:59 AM – 3 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nickgillespie Yes! @RandPaul is voting against Trump’s emergency declaration. What about @SenMikeLee? @tedcruz? @marcorubio? @CoryGardner? @BenSasse? @PatToomey? This is YOUR moment to stand up for constitutional government. Principle over party! http:\/\/reason.com\/blog\/2019\/03\/03\/rand-paul-will-vote-against-trump-emerge <\/a>\u00a0 @EricBoehm87 @reason Permalink<\/a> 11:45 AM – 3 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The only way you can “convince” rentseekers [bankers\/academicobureaucrats] is showing them that it is in their own INTERESTS to change their mind. When against their interests, make it painful for them by 1) convincing OTHERS, 2) continuously exposing, 3) humiliating them Permalink<\/a> 7:23 AM – 3 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@SimonDeDeo There is no such thing as a un-biased test for pattern recognition ability. (Literally, and for the same reason that Komolgorov complexity is uncomputable.) IQ tests the ability to know what the academic bureaucrat test thinks a pattern is. https:\/\/twitter.com\/RustedOak\/status\/1102220743671271427 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:14 AM – 3 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am very dumb without #SkinintheGame Some people have an energy filter. pic.twitter.com\/IqY74S9nvh<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:19 AM – 3 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A- As I keep saying there is too high variance in IQ tests FOR THE SAME person. To include it statistically it propagates the noise in other links IQ-real worls (already too noisy). B- @SimonDeDeo also finds elsewhere that you can RAISE non-nerdish people’s IQ by offering them $. https:\/\/twitter.com\/SimonDeDeo\/status\/1101889756139540481 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:08 AM – 3 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@amconmag Saudi and Emirati lobbyists really don’t want the war in Yemen to end: https:\/\/www.theamericanconservative.com\/articles\/can-these-senators-prevail-over-uae-saudi-lobby-for-war\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:00 AM – 3 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Any bio of Seneca will be written by a library rat who writes biographies hence can\u2019t get people of action. Just read Seneca. https:\/\/twitter.com\/ckard001\/status\/1101940887893016576 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:41 PM – 2 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We did not break the mafia by being \u201ckind\u201d and convincing. In the presence of rent seeking, you break by breaking. https:\/\/twitter.com\/brainpicker\/status\/1101905770466234368 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:22 AM – 2 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@TulsiGabbard Tulsi talks truth on wars #TULSI2020 pic.twitter.com\/3ad7VJySZb<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:27 PM – 1 Mar 2019<\/p>\n

@BarbarianCap surprised no one has cc:ed @nntaleb on this comment from a Med Turk finding out he is 80% Greek DNA https:\/\/twitter.com\/CursedBalkanYT\/status\/1100117821420437504 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:11 PM – 28 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@threadreaderapp Hello, the unroll you asked for: Thread by @BenjaminGJW: “THREAD: Understanding Fractal Localism. Coined by @nntaleb, Fractal Localism is a solution Taleb gives to rising complex []” https:\/\/threadreaderapp.com\/thread\/1101173932919525382.html <\/a>\u00a0 Have a good day. Permalink<\/a> 10:49 AM – 28 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@BenjaminGJW @nntaleb also asks questions more thoroughly in the article this thread is based on. If you’ve made it thus far, I recommend you read it, as it futher expands on this summary I have done. https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:54 AM – 28 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@ggreenwald Does US media generally now acknowledge: * Michael Cohen was never in Prague; * Trump never directly told Cohen to lie to Congress; * Cohen has no knowledge of any blackmail material Kremlin has over Trump * Cohen knows of no collusion evidence Can we now agree on these facts? Permalink<\/a> 4:18 AM – 28 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mr Pinker, @sapinker, does revealing satires about my work except you from answering @DrCirillo and I on the technical flaws in your book & how you manage to misrepresent Richardson’s research? It is NOT going to go away. https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2876315 <\/a>\u00a0 https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/1100775802952708097 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:28 AM – 27 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@Marcellenassif Studying the conjugation of verb to Write (ktb) in Phoenician. Fascinating pic.twitter.com\/Ix3iPhscOr<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:07 AM – 27 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u201cImperceptibly, time introduces and establishes abuses in the best institutions.\u201d Necker. Which justifies an expiration time for institutions. pic.twitter.com\/eLNPaBGMsu<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:23 AM – 27 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Logically, since India has ~10 times the GDP of Pakistan, not counting the latter’s yuuuge financial difficulties, and, in the presence of nuclear capabilities, there should be no war. However… https:\/\/twitter.com\/mjd1735\/status\/1100658657765683200 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:56 AM – 27 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@TalebWisdom “In your prayers substitute “protect us from evil” with “protect us from those who improve things for a salary”.” – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 1:47 PM – 26 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb So I run away from CNN and their lunatic conspiracies and I am now having drinks with friends in Moscow… what! CNN! No place to hide. pic.twitter.com\/ukylOCImcz<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:34 AM – 26 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@salilstatistics Taleb: “..pple like @SteveStuWill try to hoodwink you w ‘evidence’ ‘statistics’ & ‘genetics'” And he poorly use Pearson’s correlation (Table 1), even as he confesses normality is violated: “3.4.. statistic is overly sensitive when observed variables are non-normally distributed” Permalink<\/a> 6:05 AM – 26 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb And this shows why you can no longer say “correlation” as it has NO meaning under nonlinearities. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1090626453018955776 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:50 AM – 26 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This thread explains HOW pple like Steve Stewart-Williams try to hoodwink you with “evidence”, “statistics”, and “genetics”. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1100149502500061185 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:48 AM – 26 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, it doesn\u2019t. https:\/\/twitter.com\/stevestuwill\/status\/1099798312469684224 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, it doesn\u2019t. https:\/\/twitter.com\/stevestuwill\/status\/1099798312469684224 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:36 AM – 26 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb East Med\/Anatolia\/Zagros\/Georgia: those who eat the same share the same genes, even when languages differ. Istanbul airport pic.twitter.com\/FpbKMgWPhu<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:33 AM – 26 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3- For wages, IQ is often an entry hurdle (via proxies) and needs to be cleaned up for circularity. Yet…. above 60K there is NO correlation between wages and IQ! pic.twitter.com\/kDqgtBySVe<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:44 PM – 25 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2- Zagorski 2007, she is citing. And that’s what it shows. “If you are not a total idiot, IQ does not correlate to how rich you will get” is a more appropriate title. Psychologists are both ignorants and frauds, not a good combination. pic.twitter.com\/WNROEKbU4s<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:32 PM – 25 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No. This is IGNORANT. She is not citing the study but indirectly Zagorski 2017 “Do you have to be smart to be rich?” 1- It ignores noise (yuuuge here). For any practical purposes it is random. Next graph https:\/\/twitter.com\/RitaPanahi\/status\/1099914389312794625 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:30 PM – 25 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@Decafquest O the http:\/\/academia.edu <\/a>\u00a0 spams. ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/aBU1NhhwzK”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/aBU1NhhwzK Permalink<\/a> 11:34 AM – 25 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@hugowiz “In short, every organization wants a certain number of people associated with it to be deprived of a certain share of their freedom.” Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #quote #freedom #employees pic.twitter.com\/xaggbhP14e<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:15 AM – 25 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A summary of the total result: How counterintuitively with p>\u00bd one is off the hook. Note the distribution takes only even values for odd steps and vice versa. @bilayerguy pic.twitter.com\/rq8RIamQ4Z<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Psychologists have no idea what they are talking about when they discuss “time preferences”. Their “biases” come from not getting the math. Psych = BS. Gabish? pic.twitter.com\/w3N4TC3eWn<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:44 AM – 25 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@JoshHochschild Anyone interested in: Subsidiarity Distributism Devolution Federalism Needs to read @nntaleb on “fractal localism”: https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1099952453011816450 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:58 AM – 25 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Snow in Northern Phoenicia this morning. pic.twitter.com\/nsFArLZw55<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:47 AM – 25 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Pamphlet on Fractal Localism is developing online…. https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/38433249\/Fractal_Localism_Political_Clarity_under_Complexity <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:41 AM – 25 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Journalists like Nir Rosen should not be dictating norms to Syrians–they can’t get complexity, localism, interractions and drown in big words such as “inclusive”, “assimilation”,”racism”, etc. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1071383862134095874 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:11 AM – 25 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb MONTE CARLO verification. It works! Survival probability is indeed binary: Lindy above >\u00bd. pic.twitter.com\/PftGdSEPsn<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:11 PM – 24 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/iq-is-largely-a-pseudoscientific-swindle-f131c101ba39 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:53 PM – 24 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is turning out that psychology is indeed the mother of all pseudosciences. https:\/\/twitter.com\/Monsantobuster\/status\/1099791858572713984 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:12 PM – 24 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@cRRonycler For the nitpickers, mentally substitute ‘education’ with ‘education industry’, which is what Taleb means. Permalink<\/a> 1:42 PM – 24 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Full of nonense: Nir Rosen recites BS by @josephinequinn abt “Phoenician Identity”, plots a racist Syrian identity vs the “inclusive” Arab identity from AUB 1860 historical fraud. Why isn’t a Mediterranean identity (for Syria-Turkey-Caucasus-Zagros) inclusive? He needs training. https:\/\/twitter.com\/EHSANI22\/status\/1098222665272360960 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:04 PM – 24 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb She does not get it. Education is NOT about learning math. Education is about employing tenured professors, administrators, fund raisers, and, most of all, enriching contractors. https:\/\/twitter.com\/PardesSeleh\/status\/1098682386802532352 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:11 AM – 24 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb That some detenured (or so) academic became a truck driver may indicate some political prejudice; but it certainly proves that some increasingly larger sections of academia are just unskilled labor. It also proves that BS vending cannot be easily done in the private sector. Permalink<\/a> 3:30 AM – 24 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The reverse. All real life risk takers worry about tails\/ergodicity. Unlike academixs. #skininthegame https:\/\/twitter.com\/davopp\/status\/1099621494299258880 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:12 AM – 24 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The problem with fortune-cookie-brained @Ptetlock is insisting on spreading the wrong notion of #SKininthegame to fit his schtick: it is not about incentives. To repeat: it is a selection mechanism, filtering, something called Darwinian. @bryan_caplan https:\/\/twitter.com\/bryan_caplan\/status\/1098604763707572225 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:28 AM – 24 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Voila pic.twitter.com\/qMbEr7cmX2<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:24 PM – 23 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Quick answer using the Normal Approximation which effectively captures long term behavior & limits: simply (unless I made an error somewhere), with a probability of success >\u00bd, you can move away from the barrier and never hit (Lindy). pic.twitter.com\/cwexzi5Dge<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:14 PM – 23 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Skin in the game is, simply, filtering. https:\/\/twitter.com\/sebpeekster\/status\/1099429467787808769 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:36 PM – 23 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The reason this problem is beautiful because, while the answer can be instant (via handwaving), time to ruin is exactly the Lindy problem. Will post a Lindy solution. For the moment, look up the reflection principle (see Dynamic Heding) or https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Reflection_principle_(Wiener_process) <\/a>\u00a0 https:\/\/twitter.com\/bilayerguy\/status\/1098926919402311680 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@ektrit I owe to Taleb’s flaneuring for discovering that practical Orthodoxy had become just pagan style following of rituals. 25 years practising orthodox, trained by Athos monks and US missionaries, I noticed that only 5 years ago when I read Taleb. I was shocked. Permalink<\/a> 8:18 AM – 23 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@cryptofun69 The Russian roulette and upside vs downside sounds straight from @nntaleb https:\/\/twitter.com\/morganhousel\/status\/1099306171960303617 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:00 AM – 23 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb PROBABILITY DU JOUR \/ GEOMETRY You can express ALL nonlinear functions (for machine learning and other applications) using summs of call options, calibrated via the arc tangent of the slope. pic.twitter.com\/PIvkyuwi4z<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:46 AM – 23 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@PhiloCrocodile Up to the age of 25, you read wholesale & in a mercenary way, to \u201cacquire\u201d a possession, to build a \u201cliterary culture\u201d… After 25, you lose your hang-up and start re-reading \u2013and it is precisely what you re-read that reveals your literary soul, what you like. – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 1:58 AM – 23 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “With novelists, names and dates are wrong, the rest is true. With historians, names and dates are correct, the rest is false.” https:\/\/www.nuggetsofthought.com\/2018\/08\/22\/taleb-literature-books <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:01 AM – 23 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@dwnhogendoorn Remember: academics are trained to not seem stupid. Permalink<\/a> 1:47 PM – 22 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@ArgaizR Just like IQ. @nntaleb https:\/\/twitter.com\/mededpgh\/status\/1098964433882284032 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:44 AM – 22 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I despise Edward Said Permalink<\/a> 1:34 AM – 22 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@oldlevantine Sounds like those who say “never mind that #EdwardSaid was a malignant charlatan,” that “his #Orientalism was a sordid work of fakeries, distortions, omissions and fabrications.. What matters is that he instigated a debate on the West’s pernicious renderings of the East.” Really? https:\/\/twitter.com\/Jeff_Jacoby\/status\/1098763817776021506 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:12 PM – 21 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@mikeandallie retweeting this so that I can come back to what I’m guessing will be a really interesting thread, and also because studying higher dimensional cubes is actually a really fun project for kids! https:\/\/twitter.com\/johncarlosbaez\/status\/1098663374412427264 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:20 AM – 21 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Peter Francopan \u2066@peterfrankopan\u2069 in the British Museum with his son. Peter can smell the silk roads across history. pic.twitter.com\/qDIe5WoRfU<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:07 AM – 21 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You can change the mind of someone who says \u201cno\u201d; never the minds of those who say nothing. Permalink<\/a> 4:44 AM – 21 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@sergisoliva \u00abSi el mundo se quedara sin fontaneros, los echar\u00edamos de menos de inmediato. Pero si los presuntos expertos [bur\u00f3cratas, polit\u00f3logos, etc.] desaparecieran, nadie les echar\u00eda de menos… salvo sus madres.\u00bb @nntaleb en @Papel_EM https:\/\/www.elmundo.es\/papel\/lideres\/2019\/02\/21\/5c6af6f721efa0fb378b46ea.html <\/a>\u00a0 @EdicionesPaidos Permalink<\/a> 1:25 AM – 21 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@estimadapaloma \u00abSi desaparecieran los expertos, s\u00f3lo los echar\u00edan de menos sus madres\u00bb. Nassim Nicholas Taleb [@nntaleb] entrevistado por @gonzalosuarez V\u00eda @Elmundo #JugarselaPiel @EdicionesPaidos http:\/\/ow.ly\/xv5v30nMqfg <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/EE0C5N4ymM”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/EE0C5N4ymM Permalink<\/a> 1:14 AM – 21 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Illuminated books are #Lindy. The main motivation to write a math book (and start a math publishing house to avoid writing on other people’s terms) is to do illuminated books! pic.twitter.com\/AQtsb7xxrp<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:36 AM – 20 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@Jaffer22915438 He is telling the truth in this case. Btw, I am not not have been a fan of Putin, but when you here the truth, acknowledge it. https:\/\/twitter.com\/ml_maria_\/status\/1098180561275940866 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:55 AM – 20 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Typos pic.twitter.com\/3K7q4gOUgz<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:17 AM – 20 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Being a good “forecaster” is meaningless in getting a good P\/L. Where I show that 50 y of “expert calibration” research in psychology (decision th) is BS. Like most psychology (IQ< mental biases, Nudgeboy @Richard_Thaler’s work…) Followup on @juliagalef ‘s poll #Skininthegame pic.twitter.com\/8taEmcrWxM<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:12 AM – 20 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Where I learned that you can be interviewed by the New York Times for your obituary. This is thorough fact checking. pic.twitter.com\/FBjn0TsXIG<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:40 AM – 19 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Was it Stefan Molyneux? Did he mention something about IQ? https:\/\/twitter.com\/maajidnawaz\/status\/1097602461639081986 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:52 PM – 18 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@garyruskin With #Monsanto and #Glyphosate on the Run, @AAAS Revokes Award to Scientists Whose Studies Led to Ban on Weedkiller in Sri Lanka and Other Countries. Via @CorpCrimeReport http:\/\/bit.ly\/2X99r30 <\/a>\u00a0 \u201cIs corporate corruption eating at the heart of American science?\u201d Permalink<\/a> 12:20 PM – 18 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u039f\u03b9 \u03b9\u03b4\u03ad\u03b5\u03c2 \u03c3\u03c4\u03bf \u03b2\u03b9\u03b2\u03bb\u03af\u03bf SKIN IN THE GAME \u03b5\u03ba\u03c6\u03c1\u03ac\u03b6\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c3\u03b5 blurbs pic.twitter.com\/2mtefX4egt<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:25 AM – 18 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Darb3shtar \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03ad\u03bd\u03b1 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03ac\u03c3\u03c4\u03b9\u03bf \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 Amioun. \u03a4\u03b1 \u03c3\u03c4\u03b1\u03c6\u03cd\u03bb\u03b9\u03b1 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c4\u03bf \u03ba\u03c1\u03b1\u03c3\u03af \u03b1\u03bd\u03ae\u03ba\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03c3\u03c4\u03bf Amioun! Permalink<\/a> 11:23 AM – 18 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote. https:\/\/twitter.com\/tulsigabbard\/status\/1097490200043945985 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@jneeley78 It looks like @TulsiGabbard is really going after the @nntaleb vote. https:\/\/twitter.com\/TulsiGabbard\/status\/1097490200043945985 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:41 AM – 18 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #Hayek #individuality #equality pic.twitter.com\/j3YVRDKPMK<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:39 AM – 18 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@RalphNader See: The Democratic National Committee has voted down a ban on corporate PAC donations https:\/\/www.vox.com\/2019\/2\/16\/18226344\/democratic-national-committee-corporate-pac-donations-tom-perez <\/a>\u00a0 via @voxdotcom Permalink<\/a> 3:42 PM – 17 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@FattestFatTony “It’s much easier to macro BS than it is to micro BS.” -@nntaleb Translation: Ya can’t fool the neighborhood… #localism https:\/\/twitter.com\/SusanGroff1\/status\/1097172965962051584 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:43 AM – 17 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb @dottorpax gave me the idea that elite French cuisine was a top-down concept for the King, the court and the aristocracy; not so in Italy. https:\/\/twitter.com\/dottorpax\/status\/1097162157102452736 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:28 AM – 17 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, no, no, no, no !!! Economic decentralization \u2260 military decentralization, something the Ottomans (and today’s Chinese) understood very, very well. Aleppo & Homs were 10 times richer (sic) than today (relative to Western Europe) before the Baath centralization policies. https:\/\/twitter.com\/EHSANI22\/status\/1097126545049686016 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:08 AM – 17 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Someone observed about #RWRI that it’s the only lecture she has attended with 3-6 instructors sitting upfront like a governing committee, in continuous disputation. I managed to get my points across by sending Raphael on fake emergencies to get him out of the room. https:\/\/twitter.com\/financequant\/status\/1097144536646762496 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:57 AM – 17 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The opposite of success isn’t failure; it is name dropping. [Bed of Procrustes] Permalink<\/a> 6:52 AM – 17 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The opposite of “b**llshitter” isn’t someone called “truthful” but someone called “arrogant”. Permalink<\/a> 6:51 AM – 17 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It seems that the sophistication of French cuisine arose from the need to mask the lack of freshness of the ingredients –much as perfume came from the need to compensate for bad hygiene. In contrast, Italian and East Med cuisines make salient the freshness of the ingredients. Permalink<\/a> 5:03 AM – 17 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@GrayConnolly Tucker Carlson’s piece on America’s “war peddlers” is excellent https:\/\/www.theamericanconservative.com\/articles\/why-are-these-professional-war-peddlers-still-around-tucker-carlson-max-boot-bill-kristol\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:13 AM – 17 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In the Bronx, if a restrnt has an Italian name (like Angelo’s, Carlo’s) odds it is operated by Albanians. Italian restrnts are likely to be called “Jim’s steakhouse”… Restrnts called “Lebanese” are owned by Syrians. Real Lebanese go by “Mediterranean” or “Phoenician” cuisine. Permalink<\/a> 5:58 PM – 16 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hope this becomes a trend… A change in the narrative as the electorate doesn\u2019t like war. https:\/\/twitter.com\/da_stockman\/status\/1096924240215867392 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:20 PM – 16 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The future #RWRI location; the classroom has a direct view of the famous sidewalk where Paul Castellano was wacked by John Gotti\u2019s operative Sammy The Bull. pic.twitter.com\/b7o0ZcW47A<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:14 AM – 16 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My book puts some rigor behind the horrible @juliagalef flaw in rankings of \u201cexperts\u201d based on “calibration” & thinking that one can get expectation error VIA probability error. Aside from the fact that, to add insult to injury, she put me in the sale list as @SamHarrisOrg . pic.twitter.com\/0kAbEHd3wT<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:21 AM – 16 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The key is that estimation errors for probabilities are ALWAYS thin- tailed even for Fat-tailed variables. Those for expectation will be fat tailed for fat tailed variables. Which is why @juliagalef rankings of \u201cexperts\u201d is an insult to both probability and the real world. Permalink<\/a> 7:00 PM – 15 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@vtchakarova In life, you\u2019re either the borrower or borrowee; the creditor or creditee; the f*cker or the f*ckee. Make sure that you\u2019re not the f*ckee by being convex & eliminating the risk of ruin. – @nntaleb #RWRI 10, Day 5 Permalink<\/a> 10:51 AM – 15 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@ashokatluri Finally convinced someone with #SkinInTheGame to buy #Bitcoin…socks. #RWRI 10. pic.twitter.com\/MgKUyVXdmN<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:57 AM – 15 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@101010Lund If you can be squeezed, assume you will be. It’s only a matter of time. #RWRI Permalink<\/a> 9:24 AM – 15 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@julioccneto “machine learning discovered that you can decompose a payoff with options of different strikes”. Spectacular brainstorming session with @nntaleb at #RWRI 10 Permalink<\/a> 7:11 AM – 15 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Lookup the story In Fooled by Randomness about the trader who thinks the market is “more likely to go up”, yet is very heavily short. Permalink<\/a> 6:06 AM – 15 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) Which is the idea of #skininthegame as a filter. The ONLY filter. Verbal predictions do not map to anything real, as they penalize those wrong most of the time in skewed payoffs and favor bureaucrats who optimize in frequency space. Survival=calibration. Permalink<\/a> 6:00 AM – 15 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb BS vendor is BS vendor whether you agree or not “on this point” https:\/\/twitter.com\/EmmettBeech\/status\/1096406989414879232 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:56 AM – 15 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Today #RWRI 10, we discuss: How the “calibration” ranking by BS Vendor @juliagalef is not even wrong 1) In real life, you shb be calibrated in payoff space, not in frequency space. Someone right 80% abt Russian Roulette won’t survive, option traders can be right ~1% #ergodicity Permalink<\/a> 5:55 AM – 15 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Correction: shd be \u201cunder absence of correlation\u201d (uncorrelated vs independent) Permalink<\/a> 5:47 PM – 14 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@ashokatluri You can’t trust regulation as post-retirement bureaucrats get highly paid jobs in the same industry who you helped while in Govt. @nntaleb #RWRI 10 #ImplicitBribe Permalink<\/a> 1:25 PM – 14 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The message is that It is a very very bad idea to be both evil and stupid. https:\/\/twitter.com\/vtchakarova\/status\/1096093772830658561 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@RonPaulInstitut Ilhan Omar Smacks Down Elliott Abrams In Front Of Everybody http:\/\/ronpaulinstitute.org\/archives\/featured-articles\/2019\/february\/14\/ilhan-omar-smacks-down-elliott-abrams-in-front-of-everybody\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:03 AM – 14 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@Jaffer22915438 @normonics @nntaleb As I said, she is becoming more interesting and pay attention to who attacks her… https:\/\/twitter.com\/TulsiGabbard\/status\/1096094247336452103 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@zerohedge Every Queens real estate broker right now pic.twitter.com\/FYKZSe5WT2<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:52 AM – 14 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb DAY 4 RWRI 10 Andrea Fontanari asking: Where is the tail? #RWRI pic.twitter.com\/AJgj0NJ8b1<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:28 AM – 14 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is EXACTLY why we shd never conflate independence and zero correlation. Permalink<\/a> 6:22 AM – 14 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@keithbensons Unless you were a sucker, but then recovered from being a sucker(iatrogenics), that’s an even yuuuuger edge. “Not everything that happens happens for a reason, but everything that survives survives for a reason” – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 6:13 AM – 14 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/825241185090428928 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:55 AM – 14 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not being a sucker is also a yuuuuuge edge. https:\/\/twitter.com\/vtchakarova\/status\/1095830320543420417 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:56 AM – 14 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Something I learned this morning: A joint fat-tailed distribution under independence is NOT a product of densities –to preserve ellipticality and “stability” of the Stable Distribution. pic.twitter.com\/SBC9rvoFPV<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:50 AM – 14 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@normonics I never fail to regret spending time and energy engaging the “verbagiastic” (h\/t @nntaleb for the term) Permalink<\/a> 12:53 PM – 13 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb RWRI-10: A French mathematician trying to measure the tape using the room. https:\/\/twitter.com\/philipdevroe\/status\/1095761032943992832 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:15 PM – 13 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A fight erupted at RWRI-10. Raphael Douady measuring in “meters”. “This is America, we don’t use the f*** metric system”. https:\/\/twitter.com\/philipdevroe\/status\/1095761032943992832 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:08 AM – 13 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@sergesapiens #RWRI #10 with @nntaleb follows a power law: if you assume that the next day can\u2019t get better you\u2019re likely to be surprised! Permalink<\/a> 10:38 AM – 13 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb RWRI 10 (day 3) Ari\u00e9 Haziza showing how convex costs of catastrophes are: there is a severe nonlinearity as you pay higher and higher prices for materials during reconstruction. Twice the severity => 2.5-4 times the economic costs. pic.twitter.com\/xDDiyUl3M0<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:42 AM – 13 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Medicine and Risk Transfer, a comment on a paper by Maestro Spyros Makridakis @spyrosmakrid pic.twitter.com\/iaHPNHMri8<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:22 AM – 13 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@mhuckabee1 New personal best today: 275 lbs deadlift x 3 reps. I’ll hit 300 soon. @nntaleb you inspired me! Permalink<\/a> 4:36 PM – 12 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@nntaleb From “Lebanon” to “Phoenicia”… https:\/\/twitter.com\/ptashny\/status\/1095401651840667649 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:34 AM – 12 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@TheSuperbubble “commerce brings peace” \u2014 @nntaleb https:\/\/twitter.com\/LarsSchall\/status\/1095292013321351168 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:37 AM – 12 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@paulportesi Lindy. Physical books are engrained with the spirit of life when one holds them. Antilibrary too. @nntaleb 92 percent of students prefer print books, new study shows https:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/entry\/print-textbooks-vs-ebooks_us_56ba4091e4b0b40245c4534e?ncid=engmodushpmg00000004 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:38 PM – 11 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #IQ @charlesmurray #hayek pic.twitter.com\/vfsFhq0Wxr<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:37 AM – 11 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@TheCalmPeople Quote of the day \u201cmy mood, my sadness my bouts of anxiety, are a second source of intelligence \u2013 perhaps even the first source.\u201d Nassim Nicholas Taleb #Stress #ConflictManagement #AngerManagement #StressManagement #Happiness #MentalHealthMatters pic.twitter.com\/Wf295oesYC<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:40 PM – 10 Feb 2019<\/p>\n

@LaikiEksixroni1 What about her?!: https:\/\/youtu.be\/9uj1mD0w7Ww <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:51 AM – 10 Feb 2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nassim Nicholas Taleb\u2019s Favorite Literature Books @nntaleb N7na ldiaspora min fadd\u00e9l latin\u00e9. Bass l3alam juwwa bigakkro gheir shi la2annon t3awwado. Wkam\u00e9n l Yiddish huww\u00e9 Ilman\u00e9 maktub bil 7arf l 3bran\u00e9 nafsl abjadiyy\u00e9. Permalink 6:08 AM – 9 Mar 2019 @Extrachelle pic.twitter.com\/gRJ8QYIrxP Permalink 3:20 AM – 9 Mar 2019 @nntaleb 3am fakk\u00e9r ista3m\u00e9l l7arf l3arab\u00e9 lal […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1694,1695,1693,1427,1574,1697,1696,1014,1258,374,1577,1698],"class_list":["post-9001","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-caplan","tag-edward-said","tag-fractal-localism","tag-iq","tag-jordan-peterson","tag-julia-galef","tag-peter-francopan","tag-pinker","tag-psychology","tag-statistics","tag-tetlock","tag-tulsi-gabbard"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9001","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9001"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9001\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9004,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9001\/revisions\/9004"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9001"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9001"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9001"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}