{"id":8982,"date":"2018-12-26T00:03:05","date_gmt":"2018-12-26T08:03:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8982"},"modified":"2018-12-26T00:03:05","modified_gmt":"2018-12-26T08:03:05","slug":"intelligence-charlatans-iq-meditation-hypertension-lindy-nyt-globalist-localist-macron-micron-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2018\/12\/intelligence-charlatans-iq-meditation-hypertension-lindy-nyt-globalist-localist-macron-micron-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"Intelligence , Charlatans, IQ, Meditation, HYPERTENSION, Lindy, NYT, globalist\/localist, Macron, Micron | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

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@nntaleb 19- A general problem w\/social “scientists” & IQ idiots: they can intuit the very terms they are using. Verbalism; they have a skin-deep statistical education & can’t translate something as trivial as “correlation” or “explained variance” into meaning, esp. under nonlinearities. pic.twitter.com\/4fUQuRvf1c<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:19 AM – 25 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@normonics It is clearly a point of identity for many. Exposing this and other fragilities as early and decisively as possible is the major project of those interested in an Antifragile world. https:\/\/twitter.com\/ahsandeliri\/status\/1077483995057680384 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:02 AM – 25 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb John, refreshing to have a physicist. The rule of thumb: if a metric explains less than 1- x% of the variance, it is not a metric. In physics the x can be as low as 10^14. In engineering, often <10^5. In psychology often >75% of the variations come from variance. Permalink<\/a> 5:06 AM – 25 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@AhsanDeliri It seems IQ is a special sacred cow. The minute @nntaleb decided to really investigate what it is, how it\u2019s measured, what it implies, what it leaves out, how it\u2019s implications are inflated, all the knives came out. Permalink<\/a> 12:39 AM – 25 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #happyholidays #safetynet pic.twitter.com\/AhrXI0MPZ7<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:24 PM – 24 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Peterson I said psycho\u201dmetrics is about a nonlinear pseudometric that shows mostly how dumb someone is. Try another question & make it \u201cintelligent\u201d. Permalink<\/a> 3:15 PM – 24 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@BDSixsmith According to Lebanese festive traditions, Nassim St Nicholas Taleb visits your house at midnight, eats the bowl of squid ink pasta that you left for him and leaves free weights and copies of Montaigne’s Essays for your children. pic.twitter.com\/YAGRhg8r6e<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:58 PM – 24 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Utterly confused. The Peninsulars hate Turkey even more than they hate Infidels. https:\/\/twitter.com\/EHSANI22\/status\/1077296606809079808 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:27 PM – 24 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 18- (continuing graph). So far none of the IQ-psycholophasters seem to grasp that local correlation is never correlation is the commonly understood sense. So when they say “IQ works well between 70 and 130” it means: “IQ works well between 0 and ~85, maybe”. pic.twitter.com\/IAkkDP9hBm<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:44 AM – 24 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@hugowiz “So it appears that the church founders really wanted Christ to have skin in the game; he did actually suffer on the cross, sacrifice himself, and experience death.” Skin in the game @nntaleb @AllenLaneBooks #MerryChristmas #books #quote #Christ pic.twitter.com\/MGa2UrYIR5<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:53 AM – 24 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Merry Christmas my friends! pic.twitter.com\/xCCQxbGJuT<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:21 AM – 24 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 17- A graph that shows the synthesis of my opinion on IQ and the “reseasrch” results about it. pic.twitter.com\/xZZFn4xNJB<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:21 AM – 24 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 16- So Far: “IQ” isn’t a measure of “intelligence” but “unintelligence”; it loses its precision as you move away from 70 (left tail). Where it’s most hyped (*some* jobs) it predicts ~15- 63% of the time, ~10% if you demassage data. It it were a physical test, wd be rejected. Permalink<\/a> 4:56 AM – 24 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@TricksterDoesIt Taleb, I’m not sure I accept your stated correlation. Many of these studies have massaged the data. https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC4557354\/ <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/v08eLsktTI”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/v08eLsktTI Permalink<\/a> 9:04 PM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (hint). pic.twitter.com\/ml3X1xkKFf<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:48 PM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 15-” IQ” is most predictive of performance in military training, w\/correlation~.5, (which is circular since hiring isn’t random). QUIZ: translate the correlation into percentage of the time IQ provides a correct answer there. Permalink<\/a> 7:46 PM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 14- Any measure of “intelligence” w\/o convexity is sterile. https:\/\/www.edge.org\/conversation\/nassim_nicholas_taleb-understanding-is-a-poor-substitute-for-convexity-antifragility <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:59 PM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 13- For a measure to be a measure it needs to be: + UNIQUE + MONOTONIC or, at least + TRANSITIVE Hence IQ is not a measure, but something for psycholophasters to BS about. Permalink<\/a> 12:02 PM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 12- If someone came up w\/a NUMERICAL “Well Being Quotient” WBQ or “Sleep Quotient”, SQ, trying to mimic temperature or oth physical qty, you ‘d find it absurd. But put enough academics w\/physics envy on it & it will become an official measure. That’s what happened to “IQ”. Permalink<\/a> 11:40 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 11- A robust use of “IQ” is for low scores for special needs pple. But then practically ANY measure would work to detect problem & improvement. Or no measure: just a conversation #Lindy. But then psycholophasters are using it like cholesterol, transferring from tails to body. Permalink<\/a> 11:16 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 10- #SkininTheGame shows that the only robust measure of “rationality” & “intelligence” is survival, avoidance of ruin\/left tail\/absorbing barrier, (ergodicity). Nothing that does not account for ability to survive counts as a measure of “intelligence”– just philosophaster BS. Permalink<\/a> 10:39 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@JSuchJ Interested in the ideas and books written by Nassim Taleb @nntaleb ? In this long podcast we discuss them (in Spanish) with @TorrasLuis (another RWRI alumni), @_PabloMB, @ValueInvestingS and @The_Godas https:\/\/www.academiadeinversion.com\/nassim-taleb-luis-torras-juan-such-pablo-martinez-bernal-value-investing-fm\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:35 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 9- It is PRECISELY as a quant that I doubt “IQ”. I’ve spent 34 years working w\/”High IQ” quants. I’ve rarely seen them survive, not blow up on tail events. Those high IQ who have survived like @financequant \/Renaissance happen to be yuuugely street smart https:\/\/twitter.com\/TellYourSonThis\/status\/1076866246270828544 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:53 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 8- IQ is an academic-contrived notion. And the problem is that in academia there is no difference between academia and the real world; in the real world there is. Which explains why @primalpoly (while an honest resesrcher) can’t see where we are coming from. Permalink<\/a> 8:38 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 7- Perhaps the worst problem with IQ is that it seem to selects for people who don’t like to say “there is no answer, don’t waste time, find something else”. Remember the 1998 blowups. Permalink<\/a> 8:19 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@DrBeauHightower Ever been to a Mensa meeting? Bunch of old dudes wearing sandals and socks that spend their time playing board games and chastising the world for chasing material goals. Nihilism plus backgammon. Permalink<\/a> 8:17 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 6- If you take a Popperian-Hayekian view on intelligence, then you would realize that to measure it you would need to know the SKILLS needed in the ecology, which is again a fallacy of intellectual hubris. David Sloan Wilson joined the debate. https:\/\/twitter.com\/David_S_Wilson\/status\/1076869012250918912 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:05 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@iwangulenko Seems like Taleb only cares about stuff that matters IN THE REAL WORLD Permalink<\/a> 7:56 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 5- If you renamed IQ , from “Intelligent Quotient” to FQ “Functionary Quotient” or SQ “Salaryperson Quotient”, then some of the stuff will be true. It measures best the ability to be a good slave. IYIs want to build a top-down world where IYIs have the edge. Permalink<\/a> 7:46 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If many millionaires have IQs around100, & 58 y.o. back office clercs at Goldman Sachs or elsewhere an IQ of 155 (true example), clearly the measurement is less informative than claimed. https:\/\/twitter.com\/gorucker\/status\/1076847699100606464 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:48 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3- Look at the hordes with “high IQ” (from measurement) who are failures in real world rather than the ~50% correlation between IQ and success in 1) salaried employment, 2) jobs that select for edjukashion. Yuuge survivorship bias. 37 out of 38 PhDs in finance blew up in 1998! Permalink<\/a> 6:40 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2- It takes a certain type of person to waste intelligent concentration on classroom\/academic problems. These are lifeless bureaucrats who can muster sterile motivation. Some people can only focus on problems that are REAL, not fictional textbook ones. pic.twitter.com\/Cs8LlNPgEO<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:25 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “IQ” THREAD “IQ” measures an inferior form of intelligence, stripped of 2nd order effects, meant to select paper shufflers, obedient IYIs. 1- When someone asks you a question in REAL LIFE, you focus first on “WHY is he asking me that?”, which slows down. (Fat Tony vs Dr John) Permalink<\/a> 6:22 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@librairiefrance RT @hugowiz: “Ce serait plus simple, d’un point de vue th\u00e9ologique, si Dieu \u00e9tait Dieu et J\u00e9sus un homme comme n’importe quel autre proph\u00e8te, ansi que l’islam le voit, ou que le juda\u00efsme voit Abraham.” Jouer sa peau @nntaleb @BellesLettresEd #JoyeuxNoel pic.twitter.com\/UTg9ECZdqR<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:10 AM – 23 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Psychologists teaching you abt “intelligence” is like choirboys teaching you racketeering, turtles teaching you flying, or nuns teaching you how to rob a bank. Remember they live off charitable contributions or, worse, state support. #Skininthegame Permalink<\/a> 12:33 PM – 22 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK, having played cop with @davidgraeber now I can safely support him in *some* of his missions. Permalink<\/a> 12:13 PM – 22 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 7- Year in Review (cont) Correspondence with Maestro Alexander Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath : mathematics and humor. Maestro, Rest in Peace. https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%20%40cuttheknotmath%20%40nntaleb&src=typd <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:55 AM – 22 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 7- Year in Review (cont) The passing of @CutTheKnotMath: every Saturday morning I feel his absence, as my routine was to solve one of his puzzles. He was generous, patient, & committed to mathematics done right. We’ll finish his “Probability Riddles” book. @SvetlanaBogom13 Permalink<\/a> 10:41 AM – 22 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb @StuartJRitchie Permalink<\/a> 9:14 AM – 22 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Lesson 1 : Never attack someone publicly unless you know what they know about your work. (Asymmetry) Lesson 2: Never mess with nonpsychologists\/real people if you are just a psychologist. Fellow @stuartjrichie didn’t see that I am basing mistakes from HIS own book on IQ . https:\/\/twitter.com\/StuartJRitchie\/status\/1076473626189357058 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:54 AM – 22 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@ShehabiFares The so called \u201cSyrian revolution\u201d in one picture..! pic.twitter.com\/7z6JbpsBYL<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:54 AM – 22 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Takes correlation of existing pple in profession w\/IQ (even assuming no bias & stats were replicable). Now take a cohort of “high IQ” pple and correlation with a category called “failure”. What does it show? pic.twitter.com\/Xv6P1gcSDg<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:53 AM – 22 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The real non-datamined (i.e. w\/potential cherrypicking) IQ study is the Terman study. Shows “geniuses” fare no better (or only slightly better, there was a debate) than socioeconomic peers. Epi-style studies in Medicine are now rejected (85% don’t replicate). Only cohort. Permalink<\/a> 5:25 AM – 22 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@normonics There is a deep satisfaction in exposing shills \u2014 you are fighting for the common good. And it is effective. For instance, our bottom up exposure of @kevinfolta led to the point where even other shills have disassociated from him \u2014 no one is buying his toxic lies any longer https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1076288473051656192 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:01 AM – 22 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@iwangulenko Did you know, a jump from 1 meter makes your legs stronger, a jump from 100 meters kills you. A nation of 8m is NO THE SAME as a nation of 300m. SCALE MATTERS. You can not scale communism (small scale, family), hard to copy Swissness AT SCALE\/maybe impossible. @nntaleb https:\/\/twitter.com\/dinapomeranz\/status\/1076059083856322560 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:51 AM – 22 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@DanielLMcAdams US Institute of “Peace” – pushes war, as it always has. We are forced to pay millions for a war-making “peace” institute. Orwell shits on us. https:\/\/twitter.com\/USIP\/status\/1076315137185906688 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:08 PM – 21 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Make sure you 1) spread the list or, better, 2) help expose shills For instance this effort helped us get @henryimiller who wrote fake scientific articles & smear scientists in Forbes & @ProSyn lose his job there & at the @HooverInst For the sake of trust in science! https:\/\/twitter.com\/USRightToKnow\/status\/1076272623078854656 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:29 PM – 21 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb LINDY: we get the following: Survival rate improves past a stage: once you’ve survived long enough, time works for you even if not power law. This comes straight out of an absorbing barrier model. Note that absorbing barrier is necessary since death\/survival are discrete events pic.twitter.com\/1kRK6Btt3t<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:44 PM – 21 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@Aaragorn004 as @nntaleb said surgeons shouldn’t look like surgeons! https:\/\/twitter.com\/mathematicsprof\/status\/1075776839530930181 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:36 AM – 21 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb https:\/\/twitter.com\/spyrosmakrid\/status\/1076131927919345665 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:19 AM – 21 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb So the Persians celebrate #Yalda night while the Levant celebrate sol invictus the predecessor of Christmas at about the same time. https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Sol_Invictus <\/a>\u00a0 \u06cc\u0644\u062f\u0627 \u0645\u0628\u0627\u0631\u06a9 https:\/\/twitter.com\/JZarif\/status\/1076140113007206401 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:48 AM – 21 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 6- Year in Review (cont) Monsanto is no longer. Bayer that bought Monsanto lost >$40 billion in cap. The idea that GMO = “science” & Glyphosate = “safe” is going bust as no longer propped up by the propaganda machine. With the death of Monsanto, victory for science. pic.twitter.com\/HxqVFuKXCr<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:05 AM – 21 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 6) An aspect of the @davidgraeber affair: is partaking of a lynch mob (in the form of approach in thread) morally acceptable, meaning it is only bad if one is the initiator? This is the classical problem of diffusion of responsibility: is is OK if OTHERS are doing it too? Permalink<\/a> 6:37 AM – 21 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@EdmondShami Man, the way @nntaleb cracks down on academics is one of the most awesome things ever haha pic.twitter.com\/9MLFhhLxul<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:30 AM – 21 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Most problems in the world are perpetuated by bureaucrats (ignorant of complex systems) with no #skininthegame “trying to help”. Put the State Department on sabbatical & see how peace will organically erupt. Also the past was more peaceful than claimed. https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/peace-neither-ink-nor-blood-4657956c82ac <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:07 AM – 21 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I can easily understand that someone can hate Donald Trump. But hating Trump more than loving peace is not a morally defensible position. Permalink<\/a> 3:30 AM – 21 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@trishankkarthik “Abstinence much easier than moderation.” – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 8:25 PM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@phl43 I’d pay to see the faces of antiwar leftists in the 1970’s if they were told that 40 years later the Left, including many of their older selves, would be lamenting the resignation of a warmongering general. https:\/\/twitter.com\/elianayjohnson\/status\/1075892750808158208 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:45 PM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntalebbot “Meditation is a way to be narcissistic without hurting anyone” – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 3:30 PM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@DanielLMcAdams Trump ends illegal war in Syria. Trump may end 17 year losing battle in Afghanistan. Mattis: You’re not defending America. Well boo hoo hoo, Mattis. This is what America voted for. https:\/\/twitter.com\/Elizabeth_McLau\/status\/1075881565216010246 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:02 PM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@Ian56789 \u201cZuckerberg Must Resign\u201d: Facebook Lets Corporations Read, Delete Your Messages https:\/\/theantimedia.com\/facebook-let-corporations-read-delete-messages\/ <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/Hq9iuKXGTS”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/Hq9iuKXGTS Permalink<\/a> 12:43 PM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Year in Review (cont) 4- Published 7 papers in journals mostly single author, main one is https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1802.05495.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 on speed of Law of Large Numbers 5- Figured out to avoid seed oil, called “healthy”. ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/6pwzeuQZBu”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/6pwzeuQZBu Permalink<\/a> 10:51 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@normonics These fucking people are sick Book a plane ticket and go fight ISIS yourself https:\/\/twitter.com\/davidafrench\/status\/1075595073734230021 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:49 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 7- My take on the Curse of Dimensionality. We’ve known about it for >30 years yet some idiotic geneticists keep doing multi-genes studies (especially the GMO types). People in computer science are vastly more aware. Also see “computational irreducibility” by Wolfram. pic.twitter.com\/i6LDLri6Pb<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:11 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@DanielLMcAdams Here’s the guy who actually took a trip to Syria with McCain and Lindsey Graham and successfully pushed for the US to ARM TERRORISTS to overthrow the Syrian government. If I were Little Marco I would STHU about Syria because blood of thousands is on his hands. https:\/\/twitter.com\/marcorubio\/status\/1075465661923631109 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:03 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 6- Attempts by some to identify “intelligence genes” reveals statistical incompetence: for monogenic traits\/mutations we can identify genes, for > there is a CURSE OF DIMENSIONALITY meaning we need a yuuuuge sample of >10^30 people to have an idea about multivariate properties. Permalink<\/a> 7:57 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 5- The problem with “liberals” tagging to someone an identity\/race\/category to minoritify is that it makes race salient so you end up particularizing the general. Humans have zillions of dimensions & it gets absorbed into a category. Permalink<\/a> 7:07 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4- Aside from LLN, idiots make claims abt the distribution of maxima from individuals. As I wrote in TBS, if all terrorists were Sunni Salafis, only ~ 0.0001 of Sunni Salafis are terrorists meaning you are wasting statistical time discriminating ag single individuals. Permalink<\/a> 6:53 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My forth book in March (Vol 1, Techn Incerto) shows how little mechanistic statisticians undertand the law of large numbers (LLN). Some claims can only be made for large aggregates. The LLN requires muuuuuuuch more than they think. https:\/\/twitter.com\/pirpirikos\/status\/1075762047269273600 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:43 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1075762184892887041 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:38 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@BrankoMilan For a change Trump does something reasonable: reduce killings by withdrawing US forces (at least he says so) from Syria and “internationalist rule-based liberals” attack him because they want….a war. Permalink<\/a> 6:32 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nitingoyal An amazing thread on stats and how statistical ignorance leads to over medication. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1074283575288033280 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:29 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1- What people don’t get about “race” \u2260 or “heritability” of traits: even it these were true & not fabrications, they wd be dominated by IDIOSYNCRATIC differences. If pple from Mars had an “IQ” lower than earth by 5%, w\/variance you wouldn’t see it in ANY 2-paired individuals. Permalink<\/a> 6:22 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 5) @davidgraeber might not have been at the initiation of the lynch mob, just an active promoter of it (which, ethically, makes no difference). Permalink<\/a> 5:47 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@unherd @nntaleb’s 2013 demolition of false certainties is the perfect book to re-read in an era of noise and confusion, writes @peterfranklin_ https:\/\/unherd.com\/2018\/12\/why-antifragile-is-the-perfect-read-for-todays-turmoil\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:30 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4) and there is a meta-vagueness; @davidgraeber then accuses those who debunk him like @QuilletteM as belonging to “alt-right” Permalink<\/a> 5:25 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The approach for rounding up an academic lynch mob used by @davidgraeber 1) vageness of accusation 2) the accusation, while vague, has an association with a precise sinister past (appeal to emotion) 3) wording leaves no possibility for scientific\/critical scrutiny Permalink<\/a> 5:13 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@MonaresTI I also had the privilege of being a student at the #RWRI. I learned a lot about statistics in real life. A doctor must ensure the safety of the least ill patient and never take away an opportunity to the one that is most in danger. SKIN IN THE GAME Permalink<\/a> 4:37 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@MichaelSagnerMD Important to remember: 1) guidelines for bloodpressure change frequently. More than 83 million adults would be recommended for high blood pressuretreatment under the new (2018) system compared to 72 million under the prior recommendations. @nntaleb https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1074283575288033280 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:50 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@golchhaJ Came across the French word ‘glander’ \/ ‘glandouiller’ through @nntaleb : “It means \u201cto idle\u201d, though not \u201cto be in a state of idleness\u201d (it is an active verb). Gandouiller denotes enjoyment. [It] is what children without soccer moms do when they are out of school.” Permalink<\/a> 1:43 AM – 20 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com\/IlitbtgNWz<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:27 PM – 19 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3- There is a category of bubblegumheads (say @jaketapper ) who not only overgeneralize but misgeneralize on top: say turning the pullout in Eastern Syria as a US vs Putin. Quite insulting for the citizens there with #skininthegame Permalink<\/a> 2:04 PM – 19 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb pic.twitter.com\/l0nu2kQcIG<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:37 PM – 19 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There has been an epidemic of generalizing every tiny individual & particular conflict in life into something large & systemic, tied to “exploitation”, “race”, “gender”, “colonialism”, & ancestral “privilege”. Same pple view the world top-down & see benefits in centralization. Permalink<\/a> 1:35 PM – 19 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntalebbot “So knowledge grows by subtraction much more than by addition\u2014given that what we know today might turn out to be wrong but what we know to be wrong cannot turn out to be right, at least not easily.” – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 10:30 AM – 19 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@MichaelSagnerMD Germany’s most important journal Der Spiegel says top journalist faked stories for years. @nntaleb https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2018\/dec\/19\/top-der-spiegel-journalist-resigns-over-fake-interviews?CMP=share_btn_tw <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:10 AM – 19 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Year in Review 2018 vs plan 1- Was more intransigeant 2- Went to Malta after yeaaaaars of trying 3- pic.twitter.com\/2HGVscWm0S<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:22 AM – 19 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@Marcellenassif Sample of a Lebanese Christmas Eve ;) Featuring the FAMILY pic.twitter.com\/k3sglqsfUL<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:17 AM – 19 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb When two “experts” diagree, consider the possibility at least one of them is not an expert. https:\/\/twitter.com\/tarik_a\/status\/1075387357224992768 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:51 AM – 19 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My definition: 1- Something is locally Antifragile with respect to a variable x (that is in a range, for x \u220a [L, H]) if and only if it has a locally convex response to such variable (i.e. f(x+\u2206x)+f(x-\u2206x)> 2 f(x) for all x \u220a [L, H]). [GAMMA APPROACH] 2- [VEGA APPROACH] Permalink<\/a> 4:48 AM – 19 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Meanwhile, thank you Twitter @jack for protecting us from “state actors” from Saudi Arabia trying to dig information about us. In my case Saudi Arabia can easily get information about me, they don’t need hackers. This was sent yesterday to pple targeted by the “state actors”. pic.twitter.com\/08v2Xr3MmG<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:58 AM – 19 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Saudi Arabia Is Going Bankrupt” Taleb Exclaims After Seeing Kingdom’s Latest Budget | Zero Hedge https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2018-12-18\/saudi-arabia-going-bankrupt-taleb-exclaims-after-seeing-kingdoms-latest-budget <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:21 PM – 18 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@Barnes_Law In depth technical analysis explains how Silver’s forecasts “feels more like a slick sales pitch, complete with quantitative buzzwords, than unbiased analysis” applying double standards to measuring his on modeling. https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:07 PM – 18 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Saudi Arabia is going to go bankrupt. https:\/\/twitter.com\/EHSANI22\/status\/1075065883792470017 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:07 PM – 18 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@ole_b_peters Let’s never think of utility as a currency. Currency conversion is linear, whereas the whole point of utility is its non-linearity. If we think utility is a currency, i.e. linear, we’ll miss its reference-point dependence and start believing in prospect theory. Permalink<\/a> 7:41 AM – 18 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@Lipsie What FRACTAL LOCALISM looks like in the realm of vegetables. Tweet sponsored by @nntaleb & @VeggiesAreNoIdiots pic.twitter.com\/nycm7s6Sae<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:28 AM – 18 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb LOCALISM & SCALABILITY Compare: Greek Cyprus to Greece (in spite of the former’s yuuuge problems since 1974) Singapore to China (and or Malaysia) Dubai to what is called “Saudi” Arabia Switzerland to Germany Permalink<\/a> 6:20 AM – 18 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@hugowiz “Gli amministratori sono una maledizione da sempre – in ogni angolo del pianeta, in qualsiasi business o attivit\u00e0 e in tutte le epoche storiche.” Rischiare grosso @nntaleb @ilSaggiatoreEd #libro #citazione #business pic.twitter.com\/dyg2e2wIL6<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:28 AM – 18 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My side of the story clearly presented. As the saying goes, an ounce of algebra clears a ton of BS, even when the BS comes from someone with >3 million twitter followers. https:\/\/twitter.com\/isaacfab00\/status\/1074721180660056064 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:13 PM – 17 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@isaacfab00 My attempt to demystify the @nntaleb vs @NateSilver538 twitter war. https:\/\/towardsdatascience.com\/why-you-should-care-about-the-nate-silver-vs-nassim-taleb-twitter-war-a581dce1f5fc <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:41 AM – 17 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Nation-State is an agricultural concept made by a ruler to control & better own his peasants. It is highly inimical to the Mediterranean mind. The Polis is a more adapted unit. Permalink<\/a> 7:42 AM – 17 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@FattestFatTony “It takes 1,000 IQ points to out wit an aggressive tinkerer” -@nntaleb Rule of thumb (#Heurstic) never trust someone who has a weird obsession with “IQ”. They’re a sucker, someone who tinks (slowly) they understand the world but dont… https:\/\/twitter.com\/StefanMolyneux\/status\/1074219829798699008 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:44 AM – 17 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb III- The US was created to be bottom up, with the Federal Gov taking a residue of spending. But when pple spend (abstract) money that is not theirs, a disproportionate amount of fat grows, & we now have yuuuge money spent on nonsense. Permalink<\/a> 3:56 AM – 17 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb II- From the idea that communism works only on a small scale (if it ever works)=> Taxation, as in Switzerland should be bottom up. You pay in proportion to where you can SEE the money spent. 1st to the commune; Commune pays the leftover to the county, county to … to federation Permalink<\/a> 3:51 AM – 17 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Great thread illuminating the FRACTAL LOCALISM project. 1) Communism works on a very small scale. 2) But the flip is that it has only worked with a community that is highly homogeneous (originating from Eastern Europe) and monstrously sub-ethnocentric. https:\/\/twitter.com\/KaiGehring1\/status\/1074586553215840256 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:13 AM – 17 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@Extrachelle Retweeting this again bcz it’s my favourite 2018 tweet so far. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1073197627745992704 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:59 AM – 17 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@hugowiz “… il promotore pi\u00f9 attendibile di un prodotto \u00e8 il cliente.” Rischiare grosso di @nntaleb ed. @ilSaggiatoreEd Come puoi vedere, ho acquistato il libro ;-) (11 ottobre 2018) pic.twitter.com\/IOWVOzWC21<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:57 PM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture @elonmusk pic.twitter.com\/n4qXhvj3gi<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:01 PM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I view both globalists and nationalists as the same crap: a reduction in dimensionality, a destruction of the variegated intermediate fractal layers between individual and humanity. Both aim at monoculture. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1042047309478014976 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:32 PM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb As you lower \\mu you can see the Lindy zone and the nonlindy area. Collapse is crossing the orange line. X axis is years. pic.twitter.com\/NuoM61GvMe<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:07 PM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Localism is NOT nationalism. https:\/\/twitter.com\/laurentozon\/status\/1074254016488574977 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:37 PM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3- Lindy https:\/\/twitter.com\/otrasenda_AC\/status\/1074386673696456704 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:31 PM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Harry is a doctor and a RWRI alumni. https:\/\/twitter.com\/HarryhongHong\/status\/1074321136761036800 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:19 AM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@WeAreLebanon Live Love #Jounieh! Joy to the world By @joe.sokhn #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com\/oKEVwo2kUz<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:17 AM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@kimberlitepipe1 \u201cEnglish \u2018manners\u2019 were imposed on the middle class as a way of domesticating them, along with instilling in them the fear of breaking rules and violating social norms.\u201d @nntaleb It took me 30+ yrs to realize this and make a change. Still difficult at times, woof woof woof. Permalink<\/a> 6:51 AM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2- Ancestral architecture: no Euclidian geometry, high dimensionality. Even pyramids when close show rich micro-patters (Met in NYC). Today’s architecture is “smooth”, Eucledian, & of low dimensionality. I am most comfortable in a forest, a cave, or a Gaudi bldg. pic.twitter.com\/fCTy4H8I7N<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:49 AM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2- Doctors are statistically naive & their statisticians are imbeciles; they have a hard time understanding non-linear dose-response so they binarize. And pharma takes them for a ride by bucketting numbers (mildly ill + very ill produces an illusion of risk for mildly ill). pic.twitter.com\/1ZRZnUCJNx<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:17 AM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb HYPERTENSION In #Antifragile: Pharma needs to medicate the mildly “sick” (hypertensive) as 1) these live long 2) >100 more midly “sick” ppl than very sick, so more profitable to “cure” the healthy Pharma reclassifies the “sick” to get clients. But relation HBP-risk is nonlinear! pic.twitter.com\/1x0X9oIzxu<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:42 AM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@ektrit As Taleb @nntaleb says, Modern Architects design to impress other Modern Architects. https:\/\/twitter.com\/archpng\/status\/1074254067860471808 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:21 AM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@laurentozon L\u2019arnaque c\u2019est de confondre localisme et protectionnisme national. Lorsque vous \u00eates \u00e0 Nice vous \u00eates plus proche de G\u00eane que de Brest, Saint-Jean-de-Luz ou Lille. MLP est centralisatrice et sa gestion du RN le d\u00e9montre depuis des ann\u00e9es. https:\/\/twitter.com\/mlp_officiel\/status\/1066981705129623552 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:44 AM – 16 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@WeAreLebanon That\u2019s how the sun rises in #Beirut! Good morning everyone! Have a nice Sunday By @mahdifad #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com\/Z5Z1ICPiZC<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:25 PM – 15 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@FattestFatTony Being dumb and #Antifragile has worked out pretty well for me… https:\/\/twitter.com\/bintsouria\/status\/1073984901114937346 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:53 PM – 15 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2- Lindy is not a powerlaw but surely has local such behavior for first say 2000-10000 years. Good enough for me. A yuuge result. pic.twitter.com\/2dLkdwW2Cl<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:30 PM – 15 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Imbecile, this is not ART you can optionally observe in a gallery, but places and neighborhoods WE live in. We have skin in the game and the architect doesn’t. Permalink<\/a> 5:29 AM – 15 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There is an additional problem with architects and modernity: reduction in the fractal dimensions of our world. https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:37 AM – 15 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The problem is architects building structures to impress other architects –but plumbers don’t act on impressing other plumbers. Any activity where agents impress peers (architects, academia) rather than satisfying the needs constituents ends up rotting. #SkininTheGame https:\/\/twitter.com\/amconmag\/status\/1073918095645908992 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:32 AM – 15 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb New mathematics for the Lindy Effect, expressed as absorbing barrier (extinction barrier). This is the INTUITION of the method. Yuuuge results once we use Girsanov to include drift, or switch to geometric Brownian motion. #Lindy @financequant pic.twitter.com\/OXMrClJMS5<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:28 AM – 15 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Classical mistake by historians and philologists treating absence of evidence as evidence of absence. (Lond discussion in #TheBlackSwan) https:\/\/twitter.com\/Jorrit_Kelder\/status\/1073548679859048448 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:28 AM – 15 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb M4 is a SYSTEMATIC test of machine learning techniques, not some cherry picked concoction in an “evidence based” “data science” paper. There is NO other systematic test of predictability than @spyrosmakrid’s “M” competitions. On to M5. https:\/\/twitter.com\/spyrosmakrid\/status\/1073897208834113537 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:26 AM – 15 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (Journalistic) noise is to signal what a cancer cell is to a healthy one. Permalink<\/a> 3:08 AM – 15 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@NECSI It is the degree of opacity and uncertainty in a system, as well as asymmetry in effect, rather than specific model predictions, that should drive the precautionary measures. Push a complex system too far and it will not come back. pic.twitter.com\/KTPDM6uaBR<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:45 PM – 14 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@john_f_hamer \u201cIt takes a lot of skills to be virtuous without being boring.\u201d\u2014Nassim Nicholas Taleb Permalink<\/a> 6:58 AM – 14 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am plagiarizing @HarryDCrane for my own course next spring, particularly the last sections on Antifragile. https:\/\/twitter.com\/HarryDCrane\/status\/1073079657212321792 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:58 AM – 14 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The main point from the M4 competition is not that traditional stats > machine learning, but that BOTH have a horrible record; we cannot use forecasting for any RISKY exposure. Hence a protocol for precaution in specific domains. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1072502840407527425 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:17 AM – 14 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I wrote 4 Op- Eds in the NYT so this is not a matter of access. I just despise them. Permalink<\/a> 5:00 AM – 14 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What we calls different conservatism is militarism. Kristop has the intellectual rigor and clarity of thought of a poorly boiled cauliflower. https:\/\/twitter.com\/BillKristol\/status\/1073538845671604225 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:53 AM – 14 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Remember that the NYT, while promoting platitudinous & vague notions such as “integrity”, “truth”, etc. was behind the Iraq war, regime change, and other monstrosities. The NYT is a cover for warmongers & managed to convert the pseudo-left to militarism. Permalink<\/a> 3:55 AM – 14 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb https:\/\/twitter.com\/TalebQuotes\/status\/1073485426105577472 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:47 AM – 14 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb When someone announces, self-referentially, “I have integrity and virtue”, look for the fraud. If NYT wanted to show *virtue* they shd say: “We take RISK for the Truth, even if uncomfortable to us & causes us to be ostracized by the MONOCULTURE\/Weapon makers” No virtue w\/o Risk pic.twitter.com\/TWXqk68NJl<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:38 AM – 14 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Science is about observables; decisions, risk, life, profits and wisdom are about unobservables. Permalink<\/a> 3:32 PM – 13 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Correction: Feb 11-15 Permalink<\/a> 9:10 AM – 13 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@DrMichaelBonner Ousia, hypostasis, prosopon, etc. are often used interchangeably, and cannot be translated sensibly into other languages. Permalink<\/a> 8:46 AM – 13 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My piece on the Lebanese language. https:\/\/medium.com\/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics\/no-lebanese-is-not-a-dialect-of-arabic-e95320c164c <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:21 AM – 13 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1- Cancelled my subscription to @LOrientLeJour, not bec they refused to publish my skeptical article on language, but for the INCOHERENCE of their management who claimed to be “balanced” by only publishing Arabists. MTV has no trouble w\/the argument. https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/adamadamo.fun\/videos\/vb.1532186683714370\/742671102768879\/?type=2&theater <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/x2kqK7VXy0″> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/x2kqK7VXy0 Permalink<\/a> 7:17 AM – 13 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4) For a nationalist others are like “nonelephant animals”. For a localist others are cousins; some are brothers. Permalink<\/a> 4:56 AM – 13 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3) Both nationalism & abstract universalism cause blowups. Kantian Universalism is flawed: It you treat all children equally for Christmas, you will neglect your own. Just as you are obligated to give preference to your children, others are obligated to do so with their own… Permalink<\/a> 4:54 AM – 13 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) The danger of Nationalism is an absorption of values: lives of others don’t count: Both H & W Bush counted only U.S. soldiers. For Salafis, lives of infidels don’t count. For a localist everyone counts, but your obligation to family members is greater. Permalink<\/a> 4:51 AM – 13 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb NATIONALISM: there is an individual, then nation, little above. Causes Wars: outside lives don’t exist. FRACTAL LOCALISM: individual \u2282 various tribes (family, friends…) \u2282 tribes \u2282 … Humanity. NEVER exclusive: One (me) can \u2282 Greek & Lebanese tribes+US +Mediterraneism. Permalink<\/a> 4:47 AM – 13 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@Apocalypticaly @nntaleb might find this to be funny. https:\/\/twitter.com\/zerohedge\/status\/1073182406390079488 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:31 AM – 13 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We are opening scholarships for RWRI (Real World Risk Institute) Feb 10-14 2019 in NYC http:\/\/www.realworldrisk.com <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:45 PM – 12 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The saying that it takes much more energy to displace than install falsehood is itself a falsehood 1) Sticky “falsehoods” are beneficial or useful for survival (placebo, superstition) 2) Falsehood can only persist if #Lindy 3) Nonhelpful falsehoods tend to collapse very quicky Permalink<\/a> 11:45 AM – 12 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@black_swan_man #blackswanman #theblackswanman #antifragile #gmo #glyphosate #sustainableagriculture pic.twitter.com\/prTzKd2MwM<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:07 AM – 12 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@moshejoshua For anyone who has read @nntaleb already knows, this statement to be the harbinger and start of the end. pic.twitter.com\/GqrXYZWTX0<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:39 AM – 12 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Let me be clear about intolerance against intolerance. The rule is that People (say Salafis) whose platform is EXPLICITLY denying democracy (or free speech) should not use democracy (or free speech) to reach political power. Permalink<\/a> 1:46 PM – 11 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Nightmare! Someone citing me in EXACTLY opposite of the meaning: Being “intolerant against intolerance” does NOT mean tagging people as fascist or somethinist SO you can muzzle them. @davidgraeber’s tactic is tagging people w\/o due process, witches to be hunted. https:\/\/twitter.com\/kellydanc\/status\/1072576042030764034 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:39 PM – 11 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@Stefano_Peron And conclusion: when u have heavy tails and low signal noise ratio, convexity and layering exposition is better then forecast!@nntaleb https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/1072547892576116737 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:03 AM – 11 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb With \u2066Isabella and @Stefano_Peron\u2069, RWRI alumni who came from Italy (Treviso) to attend the \u2066@spyrosmakrid\u2069 M4 Conference. pic.twitter.com\/VhR103kc8w<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:45 AM – 11 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The NKS by @stephen_wolfram is #Lindy Thoughts by “scientists” like Dyson who dismissed it (without reading it) aren’t Lindy. https:\/\/twitter.com\/stephen_wolfram\/status\/1072521638745391107 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:54 AM – 11 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Econometrics has been a total disaster. pic.twitter.com\/Bf8AAPksRb<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:53 AM – 11 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Spyros \u2066@spyrosmakrid\u2069 : the most accurate machine learning method is worse than the worst standard \u201cstatistical\u201d one. pic.twitter.com\/oo3stEBoTy<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:46 AM – 11 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Where @davidgraeber is slowly learning that if you use a lynch mob against someone (under argument using freedom of expression), someone may turn a lynch mob against you (under same freedom of expression). #symmetry https:\/\/twitter.com\/davidgraeber\/status\/1072210837283225600 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:54 AM – 11 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You can’t predict business success, but you can predict business failure: someone who writes lengthy and frequent emails. Permalink<\/a> 3:03 AM – 11 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I confirm. Harry\u2019s undergrad class >>> so-called social scientists. https:\/\/twitter.com\/harrydcrane\/status\/1072266082210201604 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:53 PM – 10 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@polemitis “I have been wrong about most things most of my life…tell me something I don’t know… the key is to have a convex distribution to returns when I am right vs I am wrong” – @nntaleb #m4conference @Uni_of_Nicosia @nyutandon Permalink<\/a> 7:25 AM – 10 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Scott Armstrong is 81. I will remember to scrutinize what he eats at lunch\/dinner. pic.twitter.com\/nuEvfbwW1j<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:35 AM – 10 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am supposed to be an unpleasant. https:\/\/twitter.com\/batteryhorse\/status\/1072134680563122176 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:32 AM – 10 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntalebbot “If you do not take risks for your opinion, you are nothing.” – @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 3:30 PM – 9 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@LBMaronites R.I.P to the great Lebanese poet Maurice Awad. He devoted his life to modernizing poetry in the Lebanese language & even translated the Bible to the Lebanese language. He was nominated to a Nobel Prize in 2015. A true treasure from our country! pic.twitter.com\/QeGaJMmMYt<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:36 PM – 9 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@tonyblaitz And why did France spearhead the war against Ghaddafi in Libya? Why is France solidly behind Paul Biya and Cameroon in their quest to exterminate the people of the English-Speaking Southern Cameroon? Permalink<\/a> 12:05 PM – 9 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb President Micron, You don\u2019t want other countries to interfere in the affairs of France And\/or sypport the #YellowVestProtests rebels. Why did France support the jihadi headcutters in Syria? Please explain, President Micron. Permalink<\/a> 6:14 AM – 9 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not good https:\/\/twitter.com\/karenattiah\/status\/1071474783978700800 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:53 AM – 9 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Latest by @PZalloua of the Lebanon-East Med Population Genetics Project. Ancient DNA of Phoenician remains indicates discontinuity in the settlement history of Ibiza http:\/\/disq.us\/t\/397a0bd <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:35 AM – 9 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@NonMeek Here\u2019s a tailored comic strip for your upcoming M4 -lecture in NY. This ought to capture the gist of it [intensity > frequency]. #fattails pic.twitter.com\/HeKUQzoBxG<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:49 AM – 9 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@NicolasTabardel You seem to still be using the left\/right paradigm, when the debate has shifted to another dimension (globalist\/localist). Permalink<\/a> 12:21 AM – 9 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u03a7\u03c1\u03cc\u03bd\u03b9\u03b1 \u03a0\u03bf\u03bb\u03bb\u03ac ! https:\/\/twitter.com\/byzantinepower\/status\/1071358737607200768 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:11 PM – 8 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yellow vests. Some surprisingly excellent demands: – Banning Lobbies (8) – Smaller Banks (5) – Banning MONOCULTURE, GMOs, Glyphosate (20) – Anti Foreign Interventionism (22) – Pol. Diversity of Media (15) – Frexit (9) Some questionable ones (3, 2) . #GiletsJaunes #YellowVests pic.twitter.com\/Jjwy16xpWK<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:11 PM – 8 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fractal Localism https:\/\/twitter.com\/Rainmaker1973\/status\/1070994836705239041 <\/a>\u00a0 @digvijoy_c Permalink<\/a> 5:43 AM – 8 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@FattestFatTony Ending the poll earlier because more answers can come in, but only suckers wait for answers. Future Taleb had the most votes but Big Ron is the winner. pic.twitter.com\/ERFL0S8Nrs<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:19 AM – 8 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Political Clarity under Complexity, & fractal localism. pic.twitter.com\/5VPUTVrqaS<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:39 AM – 8 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is a CENTRAL result: you don’t get peace forcing pple to hold hands & sing Kumbaya by the campfire. You get peace via fractal LOCALISM. The usual idiotic AUB-style pseudoleft in Lebanon call “sectarian”(pejorative) anyone who believes in such Swiss-style localism. https:\/\/twitter.com\/wrathofgnon\/status\/890007166991482881 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:21 AM – 8 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For about two decades, journos, like vultures, have been showing up whenever someone (even when patently lunatic) claims finding a \u201cflaw\u201d in my work. Maybe I shd use a fake account and start posting these. #Antifragile https:\/\/twitter.com\/brianga11agher\/status\/1063542512114171904 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:03 PM – 7 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@DanielLMcAdams Rex Tillerson was not a neocon. @SecPompeo is a neocon. And a liar. Case closed on the president. He’s not teachable. https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/1071132880368132096 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:26 PM – 7 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb An intuitive way to see the BS by @PTetlock who doesn’t get the notion of forecasting shd be in payoff space except in very narrow domains. pic.twitter.com\/kPeCKYjK3n<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:55 AM – 7 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@catoletters Meet the Crony Senators Who Took Saudi Money | The American Conservative https:\/\/www.theamericanconservative.com\/articles\/meet-the-senators-who-took-saudi-money\/ <\/a>\u00a0 via @amconmag Permalink<\/a> 10:22 AM – 7 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Why Macron was doomed the minute he gave an inch to the yellow vests. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/947496509926453251 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:39 AM – 7 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The fancy 5 volume INCERTO set to come out in 2019. https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Incerto-Deluxe-Randomness-Procrustes-Antifragile\/dp\/198481981X\/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1544196473&sr=8-2&keywords=incerto <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/xWtMBGC8gZ”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/xWtMBGC8gZ Permalink<\/a> 7:30 AM – 7 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@spyrosmakrid My talk at the M4 Forecasting Conference http:\/\/www.mcompetitions.unic.ac.cy <\/a>\u00a0 elaborates on the two major challenges facing the field (see below), in addition to discussing \u201cThe findings of the M4 Competition and their implications and how the participating methods can be applied\u201d. ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/64UODewnPa”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/64UODewnPa Permalink<\/a> 4:32 AM – 7 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3- Current bibles: The Bible, Wealth of Nations, Das Kapital, Works by Aquinas, Montaigne, etc. They fail editorial criteria. Editors don’t understand books, Academics don’t get scholarship. Why? @rorysutherland : employees’ objective is minimizing blame in case of failure. Permalink<\/a> 3:05 AM – 7 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2- How to make a survey work by via negativa. To assess if a book will survive, find an academic\/someone who plays the system. If they say “well organized”, “well written”, or “original”, odds are the book flops. If they say “messy”, “whimsical”, the book will outlive him\/her. Permalink<\/a> 2:26 AM – 7 Dec 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1- Ignore surveys. Pple think they prefer restaurants 1) quiet so they can tawk, 2) roomy, 3) no line. Yet they flock to 1) loud, 2) cramped restaurants 3) w\/50 min wait. Never ask pple what they want, watch what they do. Revelation of preferences. #SkinInTheGame Permalink<\/a> 2:05 AM – 7 Dec 2018<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb 19- A general problem w\/social “scientists” & IQ idiots: they can intuit the very terms they are using. Verbalism; they have a skin-deep statistical education & can’t translate something as trivial as “correlation” or “explained variance” into meaning, esp. under nonlinearities. pic.twitter.com\/4fUQuRvf1c Permalink 6:19 AM – 25 Dec 2018 @normonics It is clearly a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1077,1673,637,1671,1427,924,1453,1672,1674,784],"class_list":["post-8982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-charlatans","tag-globalist-localist","tag-hypertension","tag-intelligence","tag-iq","tag-lindy","tag-macron","tag-meditation","tag-micron","tag-nyt"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8982","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8982"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8982\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8985,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8982\/revisions\/8985"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}