{"id":894,"date":"2010-04-12T14:09:44","date_gmt":"2010-04-12T21:09:44","guid":{"rendered":"tag:google.com,2005:reader\/item\/401b0b180d1e24c0"},"modified":"2010-04-12T14:21:50","modified_gmt":"2010-04-12T21:21:50","slug":"yes-you-are-maybe-overconfident-messy-matters","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2010\/04\/yes-you-are-maybe-overconfident-messy-matters\/","title":{"rendered":"Yes, You Are (Maybe) Overconfident | Messy Matters"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>218 of you took our <a href=\"http:\/\/messymatters.com\/calibration\">calibration quiz<\/a>, not counting the 10% of submissions that had to be thrown out for not being complete or giving ranges with the min greater than the max or other sanity check failures. (<a href=\"http:\/\/messymatters.com\/calib-quiz\/quiz-results.txt\">Here\u2019s the raw data.<\/a>)<\/p>\n<p>The bad news is that you\u2019re terrible at making 90% confidence intervals. For example, not a single person had all 10 of their intervals contain the true answer, which, if everyone were perfectly calibrated, should\u2019ve happened by chance to 35% of you. Getting less than 6 good intervals should, statistically, not have happened to anyone. How many actually had 5 or fewer good intervals?  76% of you.<\/p>\n<p>Here\u2019s a histogram of the number of good intervals you got, out of 10:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/messymatters.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/03\/histwi.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/messymatters.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/03\/histwi.png\" alt=\"\" title=\"Histogram of number of good intervals out of 10.\" height=\"229\" width=\"360\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>218 of you took our calibration quiz, not counting the 10% of submissions that had to be thrown out for not being complete or giving ranges with the min greater than the max or other sanity check failures. (Here\u2019s the raw data.)<br \/>\nThe bad news is that &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[110,109],"class_list":["post-894","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-john","tag-calibration-quiz","tag-messy-matters"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/894","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=894"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/894\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":897,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/894\/revisions\/897"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=894"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=894"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=894"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}