{"id":8788,"date":"2018-03-28T18:15:29","date_gmt":"2018-03-29T01:15:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8788"},"modified":"2018-03-28T18:15:29","modified_gmt":"2018-03-29T01:15:29","slug":"bureaucracy-cliff-asness-dictator-monsanto-boltan-wolfram-tillerson-genealogy-pi-day-pompeo-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2018\/03\/bureaucracy-cliff-asness-dictator-monsanto-boltan-wolfram-tillerson-genealogy-pi-day-pompeo-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"Bureaucracy, Cliff Asness, Dictator, Monsanto, Boltan, Wolfram, Tillerson, Genealogy, Pi Day, Pompeo | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb On a long flight to Tbilisi, a new book that opens the new science. pic.twitter.com\/BUOcIL2tTA<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:16 PM – 28 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@LorenzTrader \u201cBureaucracy is a construction by which a person is conveniently separated from the consequences of his\/her actions.\u201d @nntaleb #SkinInTheGame pic.twitter.com\/oOp9ZCpY14<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:38 AM – 28 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@thackerpd I took exact measures of that depth here: Flacking for #GMOs How the Biotech Industry Cultivates Positive Media\u2014and Discourages Criticism http:\/\/progressive.org\/magazine\/how-the-biotech-industry-cultivates-positive-media\/ <\/a>\u00a0 One of the reporters, @savortooth, has since inserted his nose even further up academic tuchus Permalink<\/a> 7:14 AM – 28 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb L’7ay\u00e9t wa2f\u00e9t 3izz Permalink<\/a> 7:11 AM – 28 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb On a scale of 0 to 100, paternity tests count as 99.99 and written\/oral history count for .01. Apply that to populations. That\u2019s plain stat\/probability. We are seeing science in action. @iosif_lazaridishttps:\/\/twitter.com\/iosif_lazaridis\/status\/978982852514770944 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:18 AM – 28 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Book reviewers now have skin in the game: they are now unaware that their review can be turned into a test of reading comprehension –SAT style. For instance you can gauge @EasterbrookG’s reading comprehension level from this.https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/944284554168291330 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:13 AM – 28 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is the opposite of: religions avoiding to pronounce some holy words spelled out in full on the page. There is a demarcation between the holy and the profane, or the more or less holy and the profane. Permalink<\/a> 4:33 AM – 28 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Aesthetics. I don’t like to see bulls**t fully spelled on a page, though I don’t mind seeing it on a screen.https:\/\/twitter.com\/Javermas\/status\/978866618523639808 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:43 AM – 28 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@axgry .@nntaleb is this what you mean by “skin in the game” ?https:\/\/twitter.com\/BIUK\/status\/978587443069767680 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:26 PM – 27 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@sharbatanu A packed hall listened to Mikhail Gromov quote Nassim Nicholas Taleb as “If you hear a ‘prominent’ economist using the word ‘equilibrium’ or ‘normal distribution’, just put a rat down his shirt” pic.twitter.com\/YD4JV3QWts<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:38 AM – 27 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 5) There is this great theorem by Dubins and Savage, but I owe the much simpler games example to Cliff Asness @CliffordAsness who mentioned it in 1999 at lunch in NYC.https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/How-Gamble-You-Must-Inequalities\/dp\/0486780643 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:06 PM – 26 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4) This is another example where pathologizing mental accounting by the Uberklueless and Verbiagiastic Richard Thaler @r_thaler fails: his model considers such path dependent strategies irrational. Permalink<\/a> 2:01 PM – 26 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3) The general principle #Antifragile is that when the payoff is bigger or you have your back to the wall you go for maximum variance (convexity). When the downside is bigger you go for minimum variance. Why explains why winning teams mark time and losing teams take risks. Permalink<\/a> 1:50 PM – 26 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@mgpolitis Could be a variant of the theme “\u0397 \u03b7\u03bc\u03b9\u03bc\u03ac\u03b8\u03b5\u03b9\u03b1 \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c7\u03b5\u03b9\u03c1\u03cc\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03b7 \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03b1\u03bc\u03ac\u03b8\u03b5\u03b9\u03b1”https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/977895229733916673 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:43 PM – 26 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) Here is my solution, will generalize showing results across all regimes. Convexity (optionality) beats skills. Any time. #Antifragile @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com\/C1rBKtmIHW<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:14 PM – 26 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1) This is a grrrrreat case study by Maestro Bogomolny @CutTheKnotMath showing OPTIONALITY matters more than skills: You can have >53% chance of winning when odds are against you is you have the option of switching between 2 (strategies, both of which have odds against you).https:\/\/twitter.com\/CutTheKnotMath\/status\/975844094374285312 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:11 PM – 26 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@MaxMakz #incerto change lives. Thank you \/ Danke \/ \u0421\u043f\u0430\u0441\u0438\u0431\u043e @nntaleb pic.twitter.com\/ldqEWW0KkD<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:15 AM – 26 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@ShapsterD the times and @nntaleb on the same page for once? pic.twitter.com\/dMH7xvkTkX<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:57 AM – 26 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@Cernovich Paging @nntaleb for his excellent article, “The Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority” https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15 <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/sainsburys\/status\/976872173523623936 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:32 AM – 26 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The opposite of education isn’t ignorance but miseducation. Permalink<\/a> 6:09 AM – 25 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb That pill has to potential to transforming any regular person into an economist.https:\/\/twitter.com\/clairlemon\/status\/977641234192777216 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:00 AM – 25 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Soul in the game. He died for the sake of others. RIP, with our prayers and greatest respect.https:\/\/twitter.com\/Gendarmerie\/status\/977438206550474754 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:50 PM – 24 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Where revealing that you have skin in the game violates the principle that one should not market virtue (except when taking risk, by taking risk).https:\/\/twitter.com\/NicGeaman\/status\/977653272835223553 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:12 PM – 24 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@CutTheKnotMath A simple (some say “nasty”) integral https:\/\/www.cut-the-knot.org\/proofs\/YetAnotherSimpleIntegral.shtml <\/a>\u00a0 #FigureThat #math #calculus ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/TvFl0Ix20P”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/TvFl0Ix20P Permalink<\/a> 11:14 AM – 24 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@GMWatch Stop #Monsanto’s Secretary of State! Mexican corn products widely contaminated with GMOs & #glyphosate. And other news! https:\/\/mailchi.mp\/2ee5e230eedd\/daily-digest-351849 <\/a>\u00a0 #gmo ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/kq5cN71V39″> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/kq5cN71V39 Permalink<\/a> 10:45 AM – 24 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I’ve never met a Spanish grammar specialist.https:\/\/twitter.com\/vinates\/status\/977569730860142594 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:54 AM – 24 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Nothing wrong abt dismissing someone as a fool or a bulls***ter, i.e., not solid, not reliable in reasoning & conversation. But when someone’s viewpoint escapes a psychologist’s logic, he will impart some psychological cause to the divergence. Permalink<\/a> 8:52 AM – 24 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Someone at dinner just asked me to define a \u201cdictator\u201d. Someone who doesn\u2019t buy weapons from your government. Permalink<\/a> 6:05 PM – 23 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@greekhistorypod Sicily – Land of the Phoenicians, via @GillianHovellhttps:\/\/muddyarchaeologistcouk.wordpress.com\/2018\/03\/21\/sicily-land-of-the-phoenicians\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:00 PM – 23 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@LorenzoWVilla In linea con quanto sostiene @nntalebhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/istbrunoleoni\/status\/977186224426422272 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:02 PM – 23 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am not involved. BTW the technical SILENT RISK shows the plumbing behind The Black Swan. http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/FatTails.html <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/dd_ann_61\/status\/976885542586667010 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:00 AM – 23 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@SyrianLionesss Mothers day mass earlier this week in #Aleppo #Syria pic.twitter.com\/ZxCGMV50OZ<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:54 AM – 23 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@chris_walker_ Inspired by @nntaleb, I tried cuttlefish ink pasta in Venice. I think it was the real thing! pic.twitter.com\/zaln6IzAyP<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:14 AM – 23 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@thackerpd Spinning Science & Silencing Scientists: A Case Study in How the Chemical Industry Attempts to Influence Science https:\/\/democrats-science.house.gov\/sites\/democrats.science.house.gov\/files\/documents\/02.06.18%20-%20Spinning%20Science%20and%20Silencing%20Scientists_0.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Missed this House Report on disinformation created by #Monsanto operatives cc: @MariahCBlake @fastlerner Permalink<\/a> 5:56 AM – 23 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@BrankoMilan My review of @nntaleb tetralogy http:\/\/glineq.blogspot.com\/2018\/01\/the-importance-of-talebs-system-from.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:13 PM – 22 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb One thing that struck me at NASA-JPL: these were scientists, many PhDs, but were not academics. It hit me that they were BS-free: from contact w\/real world, w\/results in the micro world. It takes a certain mindset to send a robot to Mars AND make it actually get there.https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/976577262202966017 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:37 PM – 22 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/976948306927607810 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:11 PM – 22 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@JulianAssange 811 WikiLeaks files on John Boltan: https:\/\/search.wikileaks.org\/?query=%22john+bolton%22+-sweep&exact_phrase=&any_of=&exclude_words=&document_date_start=&document_date_end=&released_date_start=&released_date_end=&include_external_sources=True&new_search=True&order_by=most_relevant#results <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:58 PM – 22 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Out understanding of history would be much, much improved if “North Africa” was called “South Med” instead. Too many people think in words. Permalink<\/a> 1:04 PM – 22 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Witness.https:\/\/twitter.com\/ss_strength\/status\/976864370973134848 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:59 AM – 22 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@noemie_issan Les honn\u00eates hommes, \u00e7a lit Montaigne et le Talmud. Un petit commentaire sur un narratif talmudique dans le dernier livre de @nntaleb “Jouer sa peau” https:\/\/twitter.com\/noemie_issan\/status\/976833003837165569 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:32 AM – 22 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@Jevaughn_Brown He ties ancient wisdom to modern insights with mathematical\/scientific rigor while making it all accessible to the non-technical AND hilarious at the same time. Just incredible. Permalink<\/a> 8:22 AM – 22 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb BS vendors usually write popular science\/philosophy books, those that tell people what they want to hear. Non BS vendors write anti-popular science\/philosophy, those that disturb the maximum number of people. Permalink<\/a> 6:14 PM – 21 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Unpopular book here means the book should disturb a certain number of people. Permalink<\/a> 6:07 PM – 21 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The point is not that Sarkozy took money from Gadhafi. The problem is the ingratitude: he tried to eliminate him right after. Ingratitude is the worst trait in a human being.https:\/\/twitter.com\/AFP\/status\/976498827459997696 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:04 PM – 21 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ramp is the generator of konveksity. Permalink<\/a> 2:56 PM – 21 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb BS vendors usually write popular science\/philosophy books. Non BS vendors write unpopular science\/philosophy. Permalink<\/a> 2:54 PM – 21 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb JPL lecktchur on Antifragility and Konveksity, in 9 min. pic.twitter.com\/E9tU0C17iK<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:52 PM – 21 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@DaliaGlickman Interjecting as his daughter – my father and Nassim were business colleagues and friends. My father just mentioned Nassim last week and cherished their conversations about all things financial and philosophical. Permalink<\/a> 7:21 AM – 21 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ended up hiking with @stephen_wolfram (& others at Bezos’ #Mars2018), in the snow on a steep mountain wearing flaneuring shoes (Italian moccasins without socks). pic.twitter.com\/6OkwKrS3e2<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:47 PM – 20 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 6) look at this idiot @marcgunther who fell for ithttps:\/\/twitter.com\/marcgunther\/status\/976174470644805634?s=21 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:35 PM – 20 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) You cannot get the open butterfly with sum of sigmoidal functions (they are closed at the ends), but you can with ramp functions. In other words, neural nets can now capture tails of distributions! Permalink<\/a> 8:31 AM – 20 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1) Some thoughts from the Bezos #MARS2018 conference. Why Machine learning methods are very intuitive for option traders. Captures functions better than sigmoids (binaries). pic.twitter.com\/OVUYfLH235<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:47 AM – 20 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@embracethetrend Few men who have a handshake worth trusting. I agree with @nntaleb on the importance of honourhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/voteboudreau\/status\/975884957993271297 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:27 AM – 20 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@The_Cyrenian I am Syrian. In Syria. The “rebels” you and @nikkihaley support have killed many of my friends, and six of my family members – the youngest being two-years-old. Both of you have done nothing but bring death and destruction to us – especially to my community – Syria’s Christians.https:\/\/twitter.com\/statedeptspox\/status\/976090852241166336 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:26 AM – 20 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sorely missed. Permalink<\/a> 6:44 AM – 20 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb RIP Rabbi Tony Glickman, who said “life is long gamma”. You will be missed.https:\/\/twitter.com\/YUNews\/status\/975913856605310976 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:40 AM – 20 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@TheStoicEmperor Steve Jobs had a very good understanding of @nntaleb’s crucial concept of “skin in the game.” pic.twitter.com\/gybIDPWEPC<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:26 PM – 19 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Wolfram is a mathematician with skin in the game!https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/975902401382170624 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:12 PM – 19 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@lawrennd Very lucky to spend time with @stephen_wolfram and @nntaleb .. we\u2019re talking about you @matthewsyed pic.twitter.com\/FJOdg2HCZq<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:08 PM – 19 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@mvachhar Sadly this won’t be the last time this happens. No #skininthegame (@nntaleb) means that bad actors are not removed from the ecosystem, leading to bad outcomes over and over again. Permalink<\/a> 11:22 AM – 19 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Advice given to any young person: “I can’t tell you what to do. I can tell who what I’ve done. I’ve instinctively never gotten into a zero-sum business, such as academia, sports, bureaucracy, etc. The mark of a zero-sum business is hierarchy.” (Academia is a quarter position.) Permalink<\/a> 7:57 AM – 19 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@kunalb11 \u201cMen destroy each other during war, themselves during peacetime.\u201d \u2015 @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 3:26 AM – 19 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Trading prices are minority rules, not average of opinions. If there is wisdom, it’s the wisdom of the minority.https:\/\/twitter.com\/St011M1\/status\/975449942603988992 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:14 PM – 18 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I agree, but social media makes it easy to counter mob with mob. Eventually neutralizes.https:\/\/twitter.com\/naval\/status\/975438767283515392 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:33 AM – 18 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I know how to select co-authors.https:\/\/twitter.com\/drcirillo\/status\/975395548797767686 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:45 AM – 18 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@LouisLebbos A few more examples of Beirut architecture from my trip last month pic.twitter.com\/Do2HJZ8AOD<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:40 AM – 18 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@CutTheKnotMath Random Numbers And Obtuse Triangle https:\/\/www.cut-the-knot.org\/Probability\/ObtuseTriangleInSquare.shtml <\/a>\u00a0 #FigureThat #math #probability ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/eSNkofIVp1″> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/eSNkofIVp1 Permalink<\/a> 6:42 AM – 18 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@Extrachelle #Beirut balconies. pic.twitter.com\/7AqTEUZZzR<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:26 AM – 18 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For instance, for a linear payoff, if you predict an event priced at 1% probability, you can be wrong 99% of the time. For the same probability w\/ a convex payoff, you can be wrong 999 times out of 1000 and still do very well. Permalink<\/a> 2:47 AM – 18 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) In other words, the predictions that matter are those with a large payoff and little costs. If you predict what other people are predicting, you get nothing (but a nice paper track record). Monoculture works for blabbering academics, not traders & people in the real world. Permalink<\/a> 12:50 AM – 18 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@HarryDCrane Forecasting is anti-fragile among IYIs. Bad forecasts lead to reverse engineering on how forecasts can be improved for next time — most discussion after election focused on improving for next time, instead of stopping w prediction snake oilhttps:\/\/medium.com\/@HarryCrane\/the-modern-day-snake-oil-salesman-2ca934cc2ab <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:35 PM – 17 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A prediction is wrong only if it costs you something. A prediction is right only if it makes you something. The rest is tawk. #skininthegame. Permalink<\/a> 6:31 PM – 17 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@TimTravis2 Just finished reading the chapter in Skin in the Game about the michelin star restaurant versus just getting a pizza and was laughing hysterically because it is so true. Loving the book by the way. One of your best. Permalink<\/a> 6:26 PM – 17 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This was with spelt. Works. Permalink<\/a> 5:49 PM – 17 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@ArcheRomaion Kinds of Greeks: Alexandrians Cosmopolitan, inquisitive, affluent. At the crossroads of civilizations, the flux only began with the founding of the city in 331 BC. Producing philosophers, scientists, theologians & industrialists, most were expelled to #Greece by Nasser in 1956. pic.twitter.com\/fjuyCv1JdZ<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:04 PM – 17 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Squid ink. pic.twitter.com\/dA9Wi9Ii8P<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:02 PM – 17 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@orestistsinalis Fantastic interview of @nntaleb with @RalphNader on #SkinInTheGame. It’s so good it makes you think deeper about the book. https:\/\/shar.es\/1Lj8Dj <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:08 PM – 17 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No chi vuole la mamma carezza la bambina (sorry for the spelling, z3leni)https:\/\/twitter.com\/z3leni\/status\/974999881633947648 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:51 AM – 17 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 5) Effectively the “Monsanto troll army” is a shadow of its former self; either funding dropped or they got more careful. I am scheduled to talk to the German press abt Monsanto & meeting members of the board of Bayer in conjunction w\/SITG pub in German. Permalink<\/a> 6:34 AM – 17 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Debunk fake news, ESPECIALLY if they are on the side of your political opinions. It is the hardest thing to do. And make sure your correction of fake news is as vigorous as the inital annoucement. I dislike Gina Haspel & everything she stands for. But I put TRUTH first. Permalink<\/a> 6:18 AM – 17 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@Sundaresaganesh @nntaleb a perfect Skin in the game – the last shot pic.twitter.com\/h8qKPvzZF4<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:07 AM – 17 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Armenians running for elections in Beirut. Wherever they go, Armenians give more than they take. pic.twitter.com\/G0DnZGzAph<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:02 AM – 17 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@AlainPannetier pic.twitter.com\/PXFfzI0FCR<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:11 AM – 17 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The man was destroying the IYI den of the state department. For the first time they had adult supervision.https:\/\/twitter.com\/amconmag\/status\/974797462157316097 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:33 PM – 16 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Here is an example of the Monsanto army.https:\/\/twitter.com\/normonics\/status\/974737398277005313 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:55 PM – 16 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am aware of that, which is why I have been waiting before exposing Monsanto shills such as @keithkloor and @tamarhaspel when they are defenseless after the Bayer integration. Permalink<\/a> 1:51 PM – 16 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3) So far I’ve made lemonade out of lemons with my problem with Monsanto. The idea is to use their shills to sell more books. Remember it is typically rejects that become smear campaigners for Monsanto .http:\/\/gmwatch.org\/en\/news\/latest-news\/16581 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:07 PM – 16 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) Monsanto has a policy of leaving nothing unanswered. There are stuff in the court papers.https:\/\/www.rt.com\/usa\/386858-monsanto-hired-trolls-court\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:00 PM – 16 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1) As expected, looks like Monsanto Shills are retaliating against my stance ag Monsanto in #SkinIntheGame by gaming Amazon Reviews while claiming they are not shills. https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/customer-reviews\/R2S10CFLW3AP3Y\/ref=cm_cr_dp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=042528462X <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:57 PM – 16 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb After the Pompeo disaster, is there a possible way to stop Bolton from getting the White House position? Permalink<\/a> 12:43 PM – 16 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@vonLichtenfeld At jump school, the guys who folded our parachutes had to take one of them at random each week and use it for their own jump. Given +50 jumps was improbable based on physical req.s, this is the definition of SitG Permalink<\/a> 12:18 PM – 16 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@MattPirkowski Couldn\u2019t script a clearer example of @nntaleb\u2019s concept of Skin in the Game. In fact, he\u2019s mentioned the architectural responsibility codes of Hammurabi many times. This would mean death for the architects in question. Fewer bridges would collapse.https:\/\/twitter.com\/nytimes\/status\/974644470674112512 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:41 AM – 16 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It was obvious Assad had NO GAIN from using gas. Now they are getting it with SOME delay.http:\/\/www.newsweek.com\/now-mattis-admits-there-was-no-evidence-assad-using-poison-gas-his-people-801542 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:53 AM – 16 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The risk-based skeptical empirical approach to CLIMATE is here. pic.twitter.com\/RupOpb3BUY<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:32 AM – 16 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Indeed, @clairlemon, you are undoing centuries of skeptical empiricism. One can approach our climate tragedy without SCIENTISM See our http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/climateletter.pdf <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/crISIS_mule\/status\/974617925549199360 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:13 AM – 16 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@skiales He @nntaleb either has impecable timing ..! Or is a tails type of a guy..! Bring the engineers at spot where the dead bodies got collapsed by the bridge & well … #hamurabi the SOB’s RITE WHERE THEY committed the. heinous sin of a #skinlessgame #skininthegamehttps:\/\/twitter.com\/moniqueomadan\/status\/974478688346693632 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:34 AM – 16 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@RonPaul ‘Skin In The Game’ – With Special Guest Nassim Nicholas Taleb (@nntaleb)https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=SIi0eO_oN9U <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:00 PM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@Sapere_vivere Reading the brilliant Skin In The Game by @nntaleb. Four little words that should be in the forefront of your mind when you think about human existence. Permalink<\/a> 2:49 PM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 6) Mr @ImaraWaTijara, let me say it in one sentence” One single DNA test offsets 12 hours of b***ting. Gabish? Permalink<\/a> 2:32 PM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 5) We have known since Ruffi\u00e9 and Taleb (1965) [my father’s hobby was scientific genealogy via blood markers] that Koura valley was heavily Macedonian\/Western Cypriot & we can see it through DNA. Historians are convinved they can contest paternity tests with tons of verbal BS Permalink<\/a> 12:05 PM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4) As an example of how fabrications work: a Low-IQ Arabist below, @ImaraWaTijara is responding by inventing origins FOR ME and the Greek-Orthodox of the Koura Valley using bogus oral history, when DNA shows no Hawran stock in Koura & in MY OWN DNA (J2b).https:\/\/twitter.com\/ImaraWaTijara\/status\/974295061683941377 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:59 AM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@TMFStoffel While doing some research into our piece, I found this gem from @nntaleb in the @nytimes Note that it was written…… in 2003! http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2003\/08\/07\/business\/fannie-mae-s-loss-risk-is-larger-computer-models-show.html <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/PC1mPY7jP6″> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/PC1mPY7jP6 Permalink<\/a> 11:38 AM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@TMFStoffel Here’s one for all of us to chew on from @nntaleb: “every time you open your mouth in a public forum and you say something: * that is not risky or * is meant to improve your image and reputation, every time you do that you are COMPROMISING YOUR ETHICS.” Permalink<\/a> 10:47 AM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You can’t be an author without attitude; write on your own terms.https:\/\/twitter.com\/johndurant\/status\/974167721045671936 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:55 AM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@RonPaul Grab your seat belts! Today’s Liberty Report is joined by @nntaleb to discuss @nytimes bestselling book #skininthegame — and the “interventionists” braying for war! Live @ noon ET on http:\/\/youtube.com\/ronpaullibertyreport <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/Wdx0mKmVkt”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/Wdx0mKmVkt Permalink<\/a> 8:20 AM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3) The other interesting “hard science” discovery is that a) Modern Greeks are the same as ancient Greeks, b) Greeks are largely Anatolian, c) Canaanites are largely Anatolian. Minority rule chapter in #skininthegame : languages travel, genes not so much. Permalink<\/a> 6:52 AM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Never argue with someone with the aim of changing his or her mind; focus instead on changing the much less invested minds of the audience. Permalink<\/a> 6:47 AM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) @PZalloua (Reich collab) showed Leb Shiites were of Phoenician ancestry, caused a shock, but now slowing building a Canaanite identity. I found from his databse that there is ~3% Arab genes in Lebanon & West. Syria. Arabist Historians s.a. Salibi are largely fabricators. Permalink<\/a> 6:02 AM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A Lebanese proverb: “If you give a fool a weapon, he will hurt himself”.https:\/\/twitter.com\/zerohedge\/status\/974255026020519936 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:13 AM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb THREAD 1) We are facing a complete and *sudden* rewriting of history using DNA, like paternity tests, disturbs linguists, historians, (recall the Mary Beard affair), archeologists, and Arabists.https:\/\/www.theatlantic.com\/science\/archive\/2018\/03\/ancient-dna-history\/554798\/?utm_source=twb <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:40 AM – 15 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@jordanbpeterson Did you notice, @JustinTrudeau, that a law-abiding Canadian citizen has been DENIED ENTRY by the UK? Do you think she’s more dangerous than the former ISIS fighters you rolled out the welcome mat for in Canada?https:\/\/youtu.be\/odGiYJdFtE0 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:07 PM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Happy Pi day –and, in the bargain, via Euler’s Identity. “The shortest path between two truths in the real domain passes through the complex domain.” ~ Jacques Hadamardhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/974019574088830976 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:32 PM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@EmPee78 @nntaleb thank you for writing books that are meaningful pic.twitter.com\/tSmzT7eOnp<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:01 PM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@RonPaul We are REALLY looking forward to having @nytimes multiple-time bestselling author @nntaleb joining us tomorrow Thursday live on the Liberty Report @noon ET on http:\/\/Youtube.com\/RonPaulLibertyReport <\/a>\u00a0 Be there!!!https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/974029403482189824 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:11 PM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I will be discussing the point and inveighing against these depraved interventionistas w\/o #skininthegame with @RonPaul and @DanielLMcAdams on Ron Paul’s channel tomorrow at noon. @RonPaulInstituthttps:\/\/twitter.com\/RandPaul\/status\/973955597728088067 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:08 PM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@HarryDCrane Data != information Data = information only if you understand it. Collecting more of something you don’t understand only leads to more confusion. Permalink<\/a> 12:31 PM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@CutTheKnotMath A Trigonometric Identity for the Pi Day https:\/\/www.cut-the-knot.org\/triangle\/TrigonometricIdentityForAPiDay.shtml <\/a>\u00a0 #FigureThat #math #geometry #algebra ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/1VvPF4rtZk”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/1VvPF4rtZk Permalink<\/a> 11:30 AM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@JulianAssange My article on new US Secretary of State nominee Mike Pompeohttps:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/julian-assange-the-cia-director-is-waging-war-on-truth-tellers-like-wikileaks\/2017\/04\/25\/b8aa5cfc-29c7-11e7-a616-d7c8a68c1a66_story.html?utm_term=.d32c33ee90fd <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:09 AM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@rjboyle Someone anonymously gifted me a copy of latest book from @nntaleb. Thanks to whomever it may be! pic.twitter.com\/UreVQHFIz1<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:36 AM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb https:\/\/medium.com\/east-med-project-history-philology-and-genetics\/when-did-lebanese-christians-start-speaking-french-771603969932 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:23 AM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Those in “Colonialism” a la Ed. Said\/Arabism studies are Fabricators. The French spent 22 years in Lebanon as military mandate (Italo-French was Christians’ education) The Ottomans spent ~501y The Mamluks spent ~220 y The Arabs spent ~250-350 y WTF is this Euro “colonialism”? Permalink<\/a> 6:03 AM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Achrafieh, Taleb Family 1923-1972 pic.twitter.com\/Cbx4oqPesh<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:49 AM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb MACHINE LEARNING & FORECASTING Announcement: the M4 competition (Makridakis) is open. We will finally figure out how the various machine learning methods fare with time series, without the currently prevailing cherry-picking. https:\/\/www.m4.unic.ac.cy <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/yjo9MJ987m”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/yjo9MJ987m Permalink<\/a> 4:09 AM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@WeAreLebanon Fascinating buildings in #Beirut By @elmaalouf #WeAreLebanon pic.twitter.com\/9cRyEYKdGS<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:02 AM – 14 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@Confusezeus “Foregone Conclusionism” explained – deserves a hashtag: spot the #foregoneconclusionismhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/neontaster\/status\/973630518246957056 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:37 PM – 13 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@DShaywitz Also from @nntaleb Antifragile: skeptical about Baconian model academia -> applied science&tech ->practice; favors tinkering model, see below (includes contrast w\/his take on model 1). cc @JamesBessen pic.twitter.com\/uccpgz6MxL<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:28 AM – 13 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@normonics 2 things about Pompeo evidenced by DARK act I very much DO NOT like 1) D act was about denying states the ability to determine their own law. centralizer. what is the point of electing a republican if a centralizer?might as well be a dem. 2) D act was a favor to MON-corporatist Permalink<\/a> 9:14 AM – 13 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is a disaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaster.https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/973540316656623616 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:32 AM – 13 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Decorators are not users. #skininthegamehttps:\/\/twitter.com\/StephenFleming\/status\/973401515934195712 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:23 AM – 13 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Our Page on GMOs http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:34 AM – 13 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Monsanto’s fraudulent claims. Show me papers on tail risks of GMOs. Show me.https:\/\/twitter.com\/Preschel\/status\/973508207208431616 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:17 AM – 13 Mar 2018<\/p>\n

@TMFStoffel Love this. @RalphNader ‘s host: “@nntaleb sounds a little…Republican.” @RalphNader: “You CANNOT pigeonhole him!!” Permalink<\/a> 6:04 PM – 12 Mar 2018<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb On a long flight to Tbilisi, a new book that opens the new science. pic.twitter.com\/BUOcIL2tTA Permalink 12:16 PM – 28 Mar 2018 @LorenzTrader \u201cBureaucracy is a construction by which a person is conveniently separated from the consequences of his\/her actions.\u201d @nntaleb #SkinInTheGame pic.twitter.com\/oOp9ZCpY14 Permalink 11:38 AM – 28 Mar 2018 @thackerpd I took exact […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1593,1590,1591,1592,1595,823,1596,1597,1594,1200],"class_list":["post-8788","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors","tag-boltan","tag-bureaucracy","tag-cliff-asness","tag-dictator","tag-genealogy","tag-monsanto","tag-pi-day","tag-pompeo","tag-tillerson","tag-wolfram"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8788","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8788"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8788\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8789,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8788\/revisions\/8789"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8788"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8788"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8788"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}