{"id":8767,"date":"2018-02-25T19:51:54","date_gmt":"2018-02-26T03:51:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8767"},"modified":"2018-02-25T19:51:54","modified_gmt":"2018-02-26T03:51:54","slug":"explaining-both-the-xiv-trade-and-why-forecasting-is-bs-youtube","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2018\/02\/explaining-both-the-xiv-trade-and-why-forecasting-is-bs-youtube\/","title":{"rendered":"Explaining both the XIV trade and why forecasting is BS | Youtube"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/hRwimmE2wEk?rel=0\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>N N Taleb&#8217;s Probability Moocs<br \/>\nPublished on Feb 10, 2018<br \/>\nAntifragile explains why understanding x is different from f(x) the payoff or exposure from x. Most of the harm\/gains come from f(x) being convex or concave not understanding x. Forecasting is off an average, and average is for academics and other morons.<\/p>\n<p>This video illustrates the point with XIV that went bust while being correct about volatility &#8211;and why people who make money are usually wrong.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>N N Taleb&#8217;s Probability Moocs Published on Feb 10, 2018 Antifragile explains why understanding x is different from f(x) the payoff or exposure from x. Most of the harm\/gains come from f(x) being convex or concave not understanding x. Forecasting is off an average, and average is for academics and other morons. This video illustrates [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[1585],"class_list":["post-8767","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-video","tag-xiv"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8767","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8767"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8767\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8768,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8767\/revisions\/8768"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8767"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8767"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8767"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}