{"id":8710,"date":"2017-08-25T23:57:38","date_gmt":"2017-08-26T06:57:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8710"},"modified":"2017-08-25T23:57:38","modified_gmt":"2017-08-26T06:57:38","slug":"the-logic-of-risk-taking-medium","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2017\/08\/the-logic-of-risk-taking-medium\/","title":{"rendered":"The Logic of Risk Taking | Medium"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/the-logic-of-risk-taking-107bf41029d3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">The Logic of Risk\u00a0Taking<\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p id=\"1a3d\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--figure\">Consider the following thought experiment.<\/p>\n<p id=\"78d5\" class=\"graf graf--p graf-after--p\">First case, one hundred persons go to a Casino, to gamble a certain set amount each and have complimentary gin and tonic \u2013as shown in the cartoon in Figure x. Some may lose, some may win, and we can infer at the end of the day what the \u201cedge\u201d is, that is, calculate the returns simply by counting the money left with the people who return. We can thus figure out if the casino is properly pricing the odds. Now assume that gambler number 28 goes bust. Will gambler number 29 be affected? No.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Logic of Risk\u00a0Taking Consider the following thought experiment. First case, one hundred persons go to a Casino, to gamble a certain set amount each and have complimentary gin and tonic \u2013as shown in the cartoon in Figure x. Some may lose, some may win, and we can infer at the end of the day [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[127,1533,1021],"class_list":["post-8710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors","tag-rationality","tag-risk-taking","tag-sitg"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8710","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8710"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8710\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8711,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8710\/revisions\/8711"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8710"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8710"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8710"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}