{"id":8659,"date":"2017-06-12T23:19:35","date_gmt":"2017-06-13T06:19:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8659"},"modified":"2017-06-12T23:19:35","modified_gmt":"2017-06-13T06:19:35","slug":"the-empirical-distribution-is-not-empirical","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2017\/06\/the-empirical-distribution-is-not-empirical\/","title":{"rendered":"The empirical distribution is &#8230; not empirical"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/0iw9oqnhVKQ?rel=0&amp;iv_load_policy=3\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Published on Jun 12, 2017<br \/>\nFor fat tailed distributions, the empirical distributions does not reflect the true statistical properties, particularly for extremes. This is a simplified side note to a paper with Mark Spitznagel on why people make a mistake by looking at raw historical data as &#8220;empiricism&#8221;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Published on Jun 12, 2017 For fat tailed distributions, the empirical distributions does not reflect the true statistical properties, particularly for extremes. This is a simplified side note to a paper with Mark Spitznagel on why people make a mistake by looking at raw historical data as &#8220;empiricism&#8221;.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[276],"class_list":["post-8659","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors","tag-fat-tails"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8659","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8659"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8659\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8660,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8659\/revisions\/8660"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8659"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8659"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8659"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}