{"id":8611,"date":"2017-04-04T18:52:29","date_gmt":"2017-04-05T01:52:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8611"},"modified":"2017-04-04T19:01:24","modified_gmt":"2017-04-05T02:01:24","slug":"kasparov-gingrich-monsanto-iq-fat-tony-genius-an-inconsiderate-man-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2017\/04\/kasparov-gingrich-monsanto-iq-fat-tony-genius-an-inconsiderate-man-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"Kasparov, Gingrich, Monsanto, IQ, Fat Tony, Genius, An Inconsiderate Man | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb New version of my paper on power laws with stochastic exponent https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1609.02369 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:14 PM – 4 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) Actually there is a heuristic, my days: “A good chess player makes a sharp trader. An excellent chess player makes a dumb trader.” Permalink<\/a> 7:13 AM – 4 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Garry Boy @Kasparov63 I agree for removing Assad if you settle in Syria & deal w\/effects. #SkinInTheGame #SecondOrderEffects #LudicFallacyhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Kasparov63\/status\/848989093803552768 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:58 AM – 4 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) As @ArmandDAngour can confirm, “Be antifragile or die” is “Vale” in Latin, means also “hello” or “goodbye” @goc9000 Permalink<\/a> 6:01 AM – 4 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) And #SkinintheGame has not been even completed yet! Permalink<\/a> 4:57 AM – 4 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Watching #SkinintheGame & #Antifragile leading to firm policy, the dismantlement of the Soviet-Harvard\/Thaler-Sunstein IYI machinery in DC. pic.twitter.com\/eqoKoh5sq9<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:54 AM – 4 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “As Taleb says “become #Antifragile, or die””. I don’t recall said that but it’s good enough.https:\/\/twitter.com\/andyben\/status\/849008384233918467 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:32 AM – 4 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3) Wrote inThe Black Swan (Narrative Fallacy chapter)how paranoid people could concoct the most elaborate narrative from minimum facts. Permalink<\/a> 3:16 PM – 3 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) There is a vast logical gap between suspicion based on specific fact & accusation from ZERO information. Permalink<\/a> 3:13 PM – 3 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Years of covering up lack of proof of safety of Glyphosate made the cases accumulate, and Monsanto more & more vulnerable. ByeBye Monsantohttps:\/\/twitter.com\/GMOFreeUSA\/status\/849018447782707200 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:07 PM – 3 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not only is @Kasparov63 in extemely bad taste & insensitive to victims; but he needs psychiatric evaluation for paranoia\/hallucinations.https:\/\/twitter.com\/sahouraxo\/status\/848982714212634627 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:48 PM – 3 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Antifragile = 2nd order effecthttps:\/\/twitter.com\/adviceforbernie\/status\/848953979111452672 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:01 AM – 3 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Current critique of IQ is that it doesn’t measure socio-emotional, dancing intelligence… Nonsense. IQ doesn’t capture 2nd order reasoning. Permalink<\/a> 10:30 AM – 3 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He also protects Copts from the Salafis and the previous government who dhimmified them (treated them as 3rd rate citizens).https:\/\/twitter.com\/EHSANI22\/status\/848940653308514304 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:11 AM – 3 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb When I see the NYT blame people who made their money BEFORE office, not AFTER office, I cringe. I cringe.https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/inequality-and-skin-in-the-game-d8f00bc0cb46 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:59 AM – 3 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@MattheWrite Hey losers, as @nntaleb pointed out, it’s better they made their money BEFORE taking office than afterhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nytimes\/status\/848892884791287809 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:36 AM – 3 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Academic measures of IQ are bogus (too 1st order) But one’s output on Russian conspiracy\/Trump is an excellent measure of intelligence. #IYI Permalink<\/a> 8:42 AM – 3 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb They don’t speak Arabic, but (moderately) Arabized Aramaic. Note 164 http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/notebook.htm <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/Partisangirl\/status\/848856606288748546 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:22 AM – 3 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Trying to read a paper. Which is LESS guilty of fake news (WMD-Iraq, Russo-showers), etc.? Ignore pol orientation, just record w\/fake-news. Permalink<\/a> 3:54 AM – 3 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is BS: problem is not absence of causation, but spurious\/accidental correlation (cherry picked), one that will not hold next 10 years.https:\/\/twitter.com\/AmirSariaslan\/status\/848664012707549185 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:34 PM – 2 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 6) Even coherence is loosely defined in decision theory: You are NOT incoherent if your preferences change when information not identical. Permalink<\/a> 3:24 PM – 2 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 5) Antifragile: how intransitivity of preferences (Prefer A to B, B to C, C to A): randomization protects from depletion of resources Permalink<\/a> 3:17 PM – 2 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4) Word “rationality” is not Lindy Proof. It was born with probal\/decision theory. Ancients had “wisdom”,”prudence”, sophrosyne, phronesis. Permalink<\/a> 3:02 PM – 2 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3) Many people misinterpret “rationality” in economic theory. It means just coherence. Permalink<\/a> 2:59 PM – 2 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) If a cognitive “bias” is helpful, it is not a bias. There is NO theory of rationality that makes superstitions & religion irrational. Permalink<\/a> 2:58 PM – 2 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1)Result from 3 d discussing rationality in Bielefeld: no theory of rationality cares about decisions, only consequences Gigerenzer, Binmore pic.twitter.com\/Hpf2yJiPYw<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:55 PM – 2 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Brilliant and ruthlessly impeccable logic: @DineshDSouza explaining #skininthegame to a “leftist” student at Amherst.https:\/\/twitter.com\/DavidBCollum\/status\/848577884931235840 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:11 AM – 2 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Government shouldn’t be into dietary guidelines. Once they get a mistake in (as with carbs, HF corn sugar & salt), they cannot get it out. Permalink<\/a> 8:33 AM – 2 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@SantiagoAuFund When follow supposedly deep thinkers on twitter & all they discuss is 1st level Russia Trump thinking u come to embrace @nntaleb IYI mantra. Permalink<\/a> 7:03 PM – 1 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Now we pathologize success in America? Wealth BEFORE gov. much better than AFTER. Imbecile journos http:\/\/nbcnews.to\/2ojMknA <\/a>\u00a0 via @nbcnews Permalink<\/a> 3:30 PM – 1 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb .@ArmandDAngour Suis la elle te fuit Fuis la elle te suit (Version moderne) Permalink<\/a> 10:02 AM – 1 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@zaoyang If you’re using more than two reasons in a pro and con column you are likely trying to convince yourself. Via @nntaleb pic.twitter.com\/y9G8HTDvgw<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:28 AM – 1 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (Cont) pic.twitter.com\/iG3csbYaFJ<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:57 AM – 1 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fat Tony vs Socrates, a Platonic dialogue pic.twitter.com\/XipZZtaJZr<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:57 AM – 1 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fat Tony debates Socrates in Antifragilehttps:\/\/twitter.com\/__aesthete__\/status\/848001162217259008 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:51 AM – 1 Apr 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Another problem with economists: their sense of humor is so… economist; you get what I mean.https:\/\/twitter.com\/JustinWolfers\/status\/847930504448020484 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:25 PM – 31 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb .@nntaleb (testing) It is like drama that amplifies through transmission. Permalink<\/a> 4:20 PM – 31 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Number of war casualties tends to drift upwards w\/o information, bias coming from pple afraid to err on downside. Same as inflation.https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/847507095414906880 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:45 PM – 31 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@ClimateAudit Bronze Age Hittites were Indo-European. In Iron Age, descendant neo-Hittites localized in north Syria, SE Turkey. IE attributes unsurprising pic.twitter.com\/ZsaF19PuXK<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:38 PM – 31 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb From @PZalloua’s genetic evidence, story emerges Assyrians & Phoenicians were “Indo-Europeans” w\/Semitic lang (but not Babylnns\/Chaldeans). Permalink<\/a> 1:21 PM – 31 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Western Syrians (Lattaqia->Homs) are actually cross betw Greeks & Anatolians, related to Kurds, w\/less Semitic J1 than other parts of Med.https:\/\/twitter.com\/Partisangirl\/status\/847899807305711616 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:17 PM – 31 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb One proof a day keeps the philosophasters away. pic.twitter.com\/GyrNuvJPZp<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:06 AM – 31 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb An example of news is fake, and facts are false Washington Post Botches The Bible, Lies About Lawmaker’s Bible Quotehttp:\/\/thefederalist.com\/2017\/03\/31\/washington-post-lies-about-lawmakers-biblical-reference-then-refuses-to-quote-him\/#.WN5_yLt3uPM.twitter <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:12 AM – 31 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fake experts, s.a. economists & political “scientists”, genuinely believe that when they are wrong, they are wrong in very smart ways. Permalink<\/a> 8:27 AM – 31 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Statistics works better when seen as a branch of logic.https:\/\/twitter.com\/philipbstark\/status\/847722147103481856 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:44 AM – 31 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Experts don’t mind being told they are wrong, provided they are shown to be wrong for complex reasons.” Bielefeld Festschrift, Ken Bilmore. Permalink<\/a> 2:55 AM – 31 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb One reason we think the past was more violent than reality is because historians like to discuss wars, not peace. Permalink<\/a> 10:53 AM – 30 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 10) EPILOG, part 1 Nobody noticed that the mere fact of taking the fellow’s picture means he will refrain in future?https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:52 AM – 30 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I just published \u201cWhy Each One Should Eat His Own Turtles: Equality in Uncertainty\u201dhttps:\/\/medium.com\/p\/why-each-one-should-eat-his-own-turtles-equality-in-uncertainty-e2b2ee3bcddf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:17 AM – 30 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 9) footnote: If you are outraged by a behavior, never tolerate IYIs who reduce such things to personal fights. Outrage has a social purpose. Permalink<\/a> 5:44 PM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 8) Some precedent & philosophical background. We live in large anonymous communities, brought back to natural conditions by the web. pic.twitter.com\/PuuviNrFXS<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:16 PM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u201cInside the Academic Journal That Corporations Love\u201d by @PacificStandhttps:\/\/psmag.com\/inside-the-academic-journal-that-corporations-love-a1dbe48cca1c <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:29 PM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 7) So the idea is to find the moral balance between not exposing him & exposing him, like type 1 and 2 errors in statistics. Permalink<\/a> 2:26 PM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Great point. Symmetry (skin in the game) means you accept to be equally penalized if you committed the same violation @JosephJayMFG Permalink<\/a> 2:04 PM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 6) On the other hand there is a moral obligation to protect weak people riding home after a long day from assholes like him. Permalink<\/a> 1:45 PM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 5) The only moral problem I have to clarify: he didn’t know who I was, the # of followers, that he could be identified & mobbed & shamed. Permalink<\/a> 1:43 PM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4) When I threatened to take his photo he said: “go ahead”. Permalink<\/a> 1:38 PM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3) When I asked him to be quiet “& considerate” for the sake of the rest of passengers he said it was “not forbidden” to use cell. Permalink<\/a> 1:36 PM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb More info: 1)He was chatting for 30min, no emergency 2) People who use cell phones usually go to the side by the exit door & are brief. Permalink<\/a> 1:34 PM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There is an inconsiderate man on Metro North is loud on his cell phone in some Scandinavian language & refuses to stop. Took photo. Permalink<\/a> 1:12 PM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The difference between private and public is a matter of scale as much as it is a matter of incentive. Permalink<\/a> 1:02 PM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Back to New York: Lindy Effect. pic.twitter.com\/BBVw4WBtJF<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:08 AM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Except for categorical imperatives @primalpoly Permalink<\/a> 7:53 AM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@HasHafidh A thread on understanding why “Islamic” extremism’s biggest problem isn’t with the West or even Israel, but rather with Muslim minorities.https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashafidh\/status\/749944340848443392 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:31 AM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@Isikoff KSA has “targeted U.S. veterans through a campaign of deception,” says letter to DOJ from 9\/11 families.https:\/\/www.yahoo.com\/news\/911-families-seek-justice-department-probe-of-saudi-lobbying-that-enlisted-u-s-veterans-130740119.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:37 AM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@sustain05 Convexity effects of rereading ~ via @nntaleb pic.twitter.com\/uYGysO6tfP<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:26 AM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Genius is the side effect of madness, rather than the reverse. Permalink<\/a> 3:09 AM – 29 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No Saudi and Qatari propaganda, CNN ignores them.https:\/\/twitter.com\/MaxBlumenthal\/status\/846808864624447488 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:41 PM – 28 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My final tweet for #IRMA2017. I thank Indian friends for the warm hospitality and their appetite for rigor in risk management. pic.twitter.com\/4vGu7fprGr<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:59 AM – 28 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Du Jour #SkinintheGame \u03c3\u03c5\u03b3\u03ba\u03b9\u03bd\u03b4\u03c5\u03bd\u03b5\u03cd\u03c9= to share danger together. In Plato, thanks to @faleflix. Found in Lucian’s Ass. Latin: simul pericleo? pic.twitter.com\/zu5YPtwGUF<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:34 AM – 28 Mar 2017<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb New version of my paper on power laws with stochastic exponent https:\/\/arxiv.org\/abs\/1609.02369 \u00a0 Permalink 5:14 PM – 4 Apr 2017 @nntaleb 2) Actually there is a heuristic, my days: “A good chess player makes a sharp trader. An excellent chess player makes a dumb trader.” Permalink 7:13 AM – 4 Apr 2017 @nntaleb Garry […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1441,64,1440,1439,1427,1403,823],"class_list":["post-8611","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-an-inconsiderate-man","tag-fat-tony","tag-genius","tag-gingrich","tag-iq","tag-kasparov","tag-monsanto"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8611","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8611"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8611\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8615,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8611\/revisions\/8615"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8611"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8611"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8611"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}