{"id":8589,"date":"2017-03-02T23:50:29","date_gmt":"2017-03-03T07:50:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8589"},"modified":"2017-03-02T23:50:29","modified_gmt":"2017-03-03T07:50:29","slug":"continuous-time-election-forecasting-youtube","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2017\/03\/continuous-time-election-forecasting-youtube\/","title":{"rendered":"Continuous Time Election Forecasting  | Youtube"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/wA_3RwEIqzI?rel=0&amp;iv_load_policy=3\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<div id=\"watch-uploader-info\"><strong class=\"watch-time-text\">Published on Feb 27, 2017<\/strong><\/div>\n<div id=\"watch-description-text\" class=\"\">\n<p id=\"eow-description\" class=\"\">Uses a continuous time process to price an election; we end up with an option-stule pricing. The martigale approach optimizes the Brier score.<br \/>\nThe corresponding paper is here: <a href=\"https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/elections1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">How to Predict an Election<\/a> (pdf)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Published on Feb 27, 2017 Uses a continuous time process to price an election; we end up with an option-stule pricing. The martigale approach optimizes the Brier score. The corresponding paper is here: How to Predict an Election (pdf)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[33],"tags":[1421],"class_list":["post-8589","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-video","tag-election-forecasting"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8589"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8589\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8590,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8589\/revisions\/8590"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8589"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}