{"id":8578,"date":"2017-03-02T23:23:46","date_gmt":"2017-03-03T07:23:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8578"},"modified":"2017-03-02T23:23:46","modified_gmt":"2017-03-03T07:23:46","slug":"math-white-helmets-election-forecasting-gw-bush-kapish-john-gray-kenneth-roth-salafasism-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2017\/03\/math-white-helmets-election-forecasting-gw-bush-kapish-john-gray-kenneth-roth-salafasism-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"Math, White Helmets, Election Forecasting, GW Bush, Kapish, John Gray, Kenneth Roth, Salafasism | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb 3) Had anyone asked me if I met with a RUssian official, my answer would have been flatly “NO”. Permalink<\/a> 3:37 PM – 2 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) He sat 3 seats down, partook of conversation but I didn’t focus on who he was. You only know when pple remind you of it (he just died) Permalink<\/a> 3:22 PM – 2 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Meeting w\/Russian Ambassadors w\/o being aware: Just discovered I had dinner w\/the late UN Russian amb in NY, Oct 24 w\/o realizing. No plot. Permalink<\/a> 3:20 PM – 2 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@mdvex This centralisation thing works wellhttps:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/amazon-finds-the-cause-of-its-aws-outage-a-typo-1488490506 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:07 PM – 2 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Just added a chapter. For comments, thanks!https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/facta-non-verba-how-to-own-your-enemies-ea79a34c9c49#.rh7scb14m <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:03 PM – 2 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@NECSI What is #fragility? via @nntaleb, who will teach our May program on Strategic Data Analytics w\/ @yaneerbaryamhttps:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=UgS2feyXmWw <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:56 PM – 2 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It took me a while to realize you can’t convince economists; but we can work on the dismantlement of the DC economic machinery.https:\/\/twitter.com\/robertwjordway\/status\/837366154771513348 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:56 AM – 2 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb .@ottorosseforp @PZalloua To the contrary. Means STATISTICALLY “there is NO definition of Phoenician THAT matches tribes w\/J1”. Kapish? Permalink<\/a> 7:44 AM – 2 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Phenician expansion in Med, 1 mill BC did not export J1 gene, so there is evidence population was not Semitic. @ottorosseforp @PZalloua Permalink<\/a> 6:36 AM – 2 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb J1 correlates with Semitic genes, does not equate with them. But absence indicates non-Semitic population @PZalloua Permalink<\/a> 5:45 AM – 2 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1) Way to see our theory that Phoenicians, Assyrians & N Caananites were not Semites: J2, J2a (light Green) v\/s J1 (dark Gr) @PZalloua pic.twitter.com\/t9w3IYRByg<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:44 AM – 2 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb …and b****t is using a generic statement from some wisdom handbook that can apply indiscriminately to anything you don’t like.https:\/\/twitter.com\/jcrowrva\/status\/837287115524288512 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:06 AM – 2 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Are there other societies where the person on top is not a risk-taker? How about devoid of rituals? https:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52#.sw3giv10a <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/ejzH6u6wdA”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/ejzH6u6wdA Permalink<\/a> 4:32 AM – 2 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Skin in the game, almost finished pic.twitter.com\/6sEm1JDeWg<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:13 PM – 1 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mathematics and baldness.https:\/\/twitter.com\/daniellerommel\/status\/837072594222227456 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:29 PM – 1 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fake news tricks: NYT distorts my words, making it look as if I (not them) made an association w\/”shame”. @realDonaldTrump is right. pic.twitter.com\/NlQc94Q4zC<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:20 AM – 1 Mar 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Adult Math olympiads @MoMath1 pic.twitter.com\/Wymyi54AgV<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:41 PM – 28 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The clip summarizes my problem with scientism\/GMO charlatanshttps:\/\/twitter.com\/R3plicant1\/status\/836624440813223941 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:43 AM – 28 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A quant\/engineering approach. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com\/hRPjkQXgq6<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:11 AM – 28 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We should have special treatments\/cures for neo-cons.https:\/\/twitter.com\/Confusezeus\/status\/836584933552504832 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:02 AM – 28 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The more you go into the tails, the less people & things should look like they way they should look likehttps:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52#.tyea44sb1 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:37 AM – 28 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb MSM = propaganda; Insult to 9\/11 victims.They are wittingly\/un promoting White Helmets in spite of evidence it is AlQaeda cover w\/Saudi PR.https:\/\/twitter.com\/michaeldweiss\/status\/836060012220928001 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:11 AM – 27 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mini-Probability Mooc (6 min) Continuous Time Election Forecasting https:\/\/youtu.be\/wA_3RwEIqzI <\/a>\u00a0 via @YouTube Permalink<\/a> 10:00 AM – 27 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Levantine roots, Part 2 (plus some grammar) @PZalloua pic.twitter.com\/8MlhoF1sU9<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:02 AM – 27 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Levantine roots, Part 1. @PZalloua pic.twitter.com\/IvkkvtO472<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:01 AM – 27 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For those into Orthodox lent, this is the Greek calendar. @ektrit @sustain05 @nanexllc pic.twitter.com\/R3REBPaDFb<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:53 AM – 27 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We also want answers from GW Bush on WMD. And the “victory”. And the “stabilization” of Iraq\/Afghanistan. And the costs of the war (s).https:\/\/twitter.com\/davewiner\/status\/836219418015301632 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:49 AM – 27 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Nero was slandered w\/he performed as “actor” which was the worst possible thing a Roman could do. @robby_red @fidempor @SnappyIsSoHappy Permalink<\/a> 6:01 AM – 27 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Justinian had to get a special permission to marry Theodora because she was actress & daughter of actress @fidempor @SnappyIsSoHappy Permalink<\/a> 5:49 AM – 27 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@CristiVlad25 @nntaleb I made an animated review of Fooled by Randomness. hope you like it :)https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=Rwy0LNAbPHs <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:50 AM – 27 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Kapish is not from italian capisci but from the Kalabrez Kapish. Kapish? @BJ_Lancaster @bat8bat8 @SantiagoPombo Permalink<\/a> 4:49 AM – 27 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Imbecile, a generalization is ALL not MOST or “usually”. Kapish?@SantiagoPombo Permalink<\/a> 4:04 AM – 27 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Actors are usually not very bright people; they don’t know how to act like actors. Permalink<\/a> 5:48 PM – 26 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Simple rule: When you see “conditional” in science, exclude all subsets that fail to meet the condition. @badral @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink<\/a> 5:05 PM – 26 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Can’t believe doctors can be argumentative & fail to see the diff between conditional & unconditional probability @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink<\/a> 4:50 PM – 26 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A picture is worth a thousand integrals. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com\/57RrjajhHi<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:30 PM – 26 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@talraviv Does Medium have a Mega-Recommend button? This by @nntaleb put words to a nagging feeling I’ve had since collegehttps:\/\/medium.com\/incerto\/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52?source=twitterShare-a56d3125abb5-1488141667 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:42 PM – 26 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thanks @CutTheKnotMath for training the clarity of mathematical thinking. It is like weightlifting for the mind. pic.twitter.com\/6ZQBtJ3Twn<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:57 AM – 26 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You want to send your kids to college so they come back intellectually stronger, not pre-bureaucrats. #Antifragilehttps:\/\/twitter.com\/primalpoly\/status\/835870988696875010 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:08 AM – 26 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Wittgenstein’s ruler (in Fooled by Randomness): Under some conditions the table will be measuring the ruler than the other way around.https:\/\/twitter.com\/ArmandDAngour\/status\/835880838713786370 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:13 AM – 26 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb .@DrHasanAlam @colorfulfool he is clueless doesn’t get your question in particular or controlled variable in general Permalink<\/a> 1:44 PM – 25 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You visibly aren’t grasping the point.Substance may correlate w\/style, but CONDITIONAL on same record removes correl @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink<\/a> 10:46 AM – 25 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You didn’t understand the text. Read again & look up “conditional” (everything else equ). Then think. Then tweet. @DrHasanAlam @hayfarani Permalink<\/a> 10:32 AM – 25 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A Saturday without mathematics is like Mediterranean food without garlic. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com\/8Rpl2EyHfN<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:33 AM – 25 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The paper on responses in biology, volatility in feeding. https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/medicine.pdf <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/MilenaRodban\/status\/835496327899398144 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:33 AM – 25 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Given their track record, I would recommend hiring academic economists and do the OPPOSITE of what they advise. For they aren’t even random.https:\/\/twitter.com\/nytimesbusiness\/status\/835225349378215936 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:28 PM – 24 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I just published \u201cSurgeons Should NotLook Like Surgeons\u201dhttps:\/\/medium.com\/p\/surgeons-should-notlook-like-surgeons-23b0e2cf6d52 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:52 AM – 24 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Interesting discussion around the speculation of link between lifespan hearbeats\/breathing and Jensen’s inequality. https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10154633815058375 <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/TOq0rNdfji”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/TOq0rNdfji Permalink<\/a> 5:01 AM – 24 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb From: 1986 New Declassified CIA Memo Presents Blueprint for Syrian Regime Collapse https:\/\/www.libertarianinstitute.org\/2017\/02\/cia-memo-scenarios-of-syrian-regime-collapse\/ <\/a>\u00a0 via @libertarianinst Permalink<\/a> 3:43 AM – 24 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I made a deal with John Gray where I would stop writing nontechnical books and just promote his as they read as if I wrote them myself.https:\/\/twitter.com\/kpo1978\/status\/834911263901745152 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:24 PM – 23 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We can visualize the solution obtained via calculus (optimization). @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com\/DABxf8JaJP<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:49 PM – 23 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Me neitherhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/TheRealNeilS\/status\/834805903924854784 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:54 AM – 23 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mr @ianbremmer please take students and visa-immigrants (former students whi stayed) from sample and show us results. Permalink<\/a> 8:29 AM – 23 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@normonics The Minority Rule. cc @nntalebhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/mariawirth1\/status\/834718262369853440 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:36 AM – 23 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends, thanks for the votes. Here is the passage from Skin In the Game. Business Plans shd not look like Business Plans pic.twitter.com\/c105qZNbOY<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:29 AM – 23 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Statistical BS: compare cohort to cohort. “Muslims” in US (Iranians & Leb Shiites, Indo-Pakistanis) don’t compare to Sunni Muslims outside.https:\/\/twitter.com\/ianbremmer\/status\/834756931705266176 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:48 AM – 23 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Precisely: as self-righteous imbeciles like Tatchell spreads fake numbers they become consensus @PeterTatchell @lecaester @GreenRupertRead Permalink<\/a> 5:44 AM – 23 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@john_f_hamer \u201cThe problem of knowledge is that there are many more books on birds written by ornithologists than books on birds written by birds.\u201d\u2014Taleb pic.twitter.com\/amj3lzhW0u<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:24 PM – 22 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Facts: 1) The press is free. 2) Media is acting as propaganda. Now explain analogies to Hitler\/Fascism that don’t lead to reverse. #Idiots Permalink<\/a> 1:44 PM – 22 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For those into stochastic volatility, a result (maybe for book with @DrCirillo) pic.twitter.com\/cwl50EpBy6<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:10 AM – 22 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fucking idiot, you mean the nonviolent AlQaeda? @PeterTatchell @Darius1296 @GreenRupertRead Permalink<\/a> 7:52 AM – 22 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Nobody represents more the intellectual fraud faking *doing good* as Kenneth Roth. Good news: Frauds get eventually terminally busted.https:\/\/twitter.com\/KenRoth\/status\/833755019971293187 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:38 AM – 22 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The good news is that the 2nd order effect is the strongest summary, locally convex or concave 97% of info. @normonics @YanKan_ Permalink<\/a> 6:35 AM – 22 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A deeper view of Antifragility:primacy of n-th order effects, all these (Asymmetry, convexity) are from nonlinearity=2nd+ deriv. @YanKan_ Permalink<\/a> 6:29 AM – 22 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Libs can’t get #Antifragile as they think in 1st order. Exmpls: to themmin wage income; comfort health; variation stability; Permalink<\/a> 6:00 AM – 22 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@sanjayk_13 @rhianna @nntaleb It’s not hyperbole, the trader most likely to blow up with a spectacular loss in the real world will win Permalink<\/a> 4:58 PM – 21 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Also EPA colluded with Monsanto to cover up cancer datahttps:\/\/twitter.com\/garyruskin\/status\/834151562008096768 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:58 PM – 21 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Schools have “trading” competitions. W\/o enough risk\/skin in the game, incentive is to shoot for Probability not Exp. The WORST trader wins. Permalink<\/a> 1:10 PM – 21 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb UN Ambassador Samantha Something & Obama’s State Dept conveyed and acted on fake news.https:\/\/twitter.com\/gjoene\/status\/834094781655576576 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:42 AM – 21 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Will give 2 lectures May 4 (& 5) in the NECSI program.https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/834014527880585216 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:46 AM – 21 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I can kapish uproar ag. one suggesting pedophilia. But where is the reaction ag. salafascist preachers who condone it? TwoFaced PseudoLibs! Permalink<\/a> 6:32 AM – 21 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Worse: they defend, cover up for, even embrace Salafasism.https:\/\/twitter.com\/Nigel_Farage\/status\/834035993955155968 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:49 AM – 21 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To teach someone a real skill, teach him how to take risk & fail. He will never learn this in school. No nonrisktaker can ever teach it. v 2 Permalink<\/a> 5:43 AM – 21 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If you want to teach someone a real skill, teach him how to fail. He will never learn it in school. Permalink<\/a> 6:45 PM – 20 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My friend Peter @PeterJTanous managed to cross James Bond with a Catholic priest. A thriller. https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/customer-reviews\/RVQYOQ0ZLNAT8\/ref=cm_cr_dp_d_rvw_ttl?ie=UTF8&ASIN=1504035119 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:28 AM – 20 Feb 2017<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mildly mistranslated: Greeks should be “Hellenes”, Hellenistic diaspora.https:\/\/twitter.com\/ccavafy\/status\/833487269621268482 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:08 AM – 20 Feb 2017<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb 3) Had anyone asked me if I met with a RUssian official, my answer would have been flatly “NO”. Permalink 3:37 PM – 2 Mar 2017 @nntaleb 2) He sat 3 seats down, partook of conversation but I didn’t focus on who he was. You only know when pple remind you of it (he […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1421,1422,911,1248,1423,908,1424,1420],"class_list":["post-8578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-election-forecasting","tag-gw-bush","tag-john-gray","tag-kapish","tag-kenneth-roth","tag-math","tag-salafasism","tag-white-helmets"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8578","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8578"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8578\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8579,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8578\/revisions\/8579"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}