{"id":8503,"date":"2016-11-22T22:46:29","date_gmt":"2016-11-23T06:46:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8503"},"modified":"2016-11-22T22:46:29","modified_gmt":"2016-11-23T06:46:29","slug":"syria-shias-monsanto-putin-obama-arab-bullshit-thaler-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2016\/11\/syria-shias-monsanto-putin-obama-arab-bullshit-thaler-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"Syria, Shias, Monsanto, Putin, Obama, Arab Bullshit, Thaler |Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb 2\/ Sharmine Narwani @snarwani has done some work on Syria. Hama casualties <5% of what was reported. More soonhttps:\/\/mideastshuffle.com\/2013\/02\/22\/the-dirty-numbers-game-in-syria\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:58 PM – 22 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@RiskMinds Watch @nntaleb live on 7th Dec for FREE! “Your grandmother’s intuitions abt #tailrisk is right”. Register here http:\/\/spr.ly\/60118GLAV <\/a>\u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/mGPrXkjgda”> <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/mGPrXkjgda Permalink<\/a> 12:00 PM – 22 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Trust none of what you hear, half of what you read, most of what you see.https:\/\/medium.com\/@nntaleb\/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd#.s5ge5ilqw <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:58 AM – 22 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Levantine Philology du Jour: Possi cenam stabis aut passus mille meabis => \u062a\u063a\u062f\u0627 \u0648 \u062a\u0645\u062f\u0627 \u060c \u062a\u0639\u0634\u0627 \u0648 \u062a\u0645\u0634\u0627 Permalink<\/a> 4:57 AM – 22 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I just published \u201cSyria and the Statistics of War\u201dhttps:\/\/medium.com\/p\/syria-and-the-statistics-of-war-910eb1a00bbd <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:15 AM – 22 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4) Since Obama took office # of Christians in Syria\/Mesopotamia down by 60-80%. Many still speak the lang of Christ, ethnically cleansed. Permalink<\/a> 3:26 PM – 21 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For those who still don’t know that Pinker’s theory on drop in violence is BS. https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/26772813\/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say <\/a>\u00a0 @BlueAnt2014 Permalink<\/a> 3:10 PM – 21 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Cognitive biases are psycholobullshit, unless mentioned in ancient lit #lindyeffect @CAM_SMlTH @Alex_Walshy @seanmcarroll @ValaAfshar Permalink<\/a> 2:45 PM – 21 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is called fooled by randomness. This is *exactly* mistaking probability for certainty. @Alex_Walshy @seanmcarroll @ValaAfshar Permalink<\/a> 2:35 PM – 21 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Shias share with (Orthodox) Christians the notion of self sacrifice in pilgrimage. #skininthegame no cheap signalinghttps:\/\/twitter.com\/sahouraxo\/status\/800772465907666944 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:38 AM – 21 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I can vouch: Monsanto tried to make life miserable but they hired PR imbeciles who didn’t know I was independent.https:\/\/twitter.com\/food_democracy\/status\/800741851456098304 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:46 AM – 21 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2021 @filipeteles Permalink<\/a> 6:12 AM – 21 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You will never convince someone that he is wrong. Survival does. Prologue of #SkinintheGame pic.twitter.com\/Ouu4BFV585<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:59 AM – 21 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Nassim ‘Black Swan’ Taleb Sums Up Obama’s Legacy In 3 Painfully “Real” Tweets | Zero Hedgehttp:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-11-20\/nassim-black-swan-taleb-sums-obamas-legacy-3-painfully-real-tweets <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:41 PM – 20 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Saif leave that poor Thaler boy to his mourning. He won’t be able to control others for a while, may this lifetime. @saifedean @R_Thaler Permalink<\/a> 10:46 AM – 20 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Well, I don’t trust Syria numbers, particularly after this story of the “hospitals” in E. Aleppo. pic.twitter.com\/y7SG9wlNYy<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:54 AM – 20 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The same imbeciles who calculated scientifically that Trump had <2-10% chance chance of winning think GMOs are safe. http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:16 AM – 20 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Spending additional 1 T on infrastructure may get us something other than novacaine to show for it. Obama spent it on salaries @MudsharkOX Permalink<\/a> 4:01 AM – 20 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3) Don’t fughet Obama is leaving us a Ponzi scheme, added ~8 trillions in debt with rates at 0. If they rise, costs of deficit explode… Permalink<\/a> 3:32 AM – 20 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Idiotic (IYI) journos are trying to make us believe Putin is fighting Mother Theresa in Syria, not the AlQaeda of Sept 11. @BenteScheller Permalink<\/a> 3:28 AM – 20 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The conflation of science and scientism.https:\/\/twitter.com\/saifedean\/status\/800296599314370560 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:16 AM – 20 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) (Cont) But in the end what Obama did that is unforgivable is increasing centralization in a complex system. Permalink<\/a> 3:50 PM – 19 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Obama: Protected banksters (largest bonus pool in 2010) “Helped” Libya Served AlQaeda\/SaudiBarbaria(Syria & Yemen)https:\/\/twitter.com\/BrankoMilan\/status\/800104636594192384 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:33 PM – 19 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For anyone who needs to know. @charles_lister is a paid Salafi apologist\/propagandist at @MiddleEastInst and AlQaeda promoter.https:\/\/twitter.com\/kenanrahmani\/status\/799338345948188672 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:50 AM – 19 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Libertarianism and Julian the Apostate. pic.twitter.com\/HV8yVWdzPl<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:54 AM – 19 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The only way to understand Aleppo is to call someone in North Syria. All the rest is suspicious Salafi propaganda.https:\/\/twitter.com\/LinaArabii\/status\/799883376937340929 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:31 AM – 19 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, it is not “racist” to resist intolerant minorities, no, no, no!https:\/\/medium.com\/@nntaleb\/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.7fh4kzqs1 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:27 AM – 19 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb .@ashuduttmarkets Fucking idiot, why don’t you unfollow and find someone else who wants your instruction on what to write about? Permalink<\/a> 6:55 AM – 19 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tragedy of Syrian Christians: promoted Arabism to secularize away from Islam, instead of Greco-Roman-Aramaic past. pic.twitter.com\/holXWYCbzj<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:47 AM – 19 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How Fat Tony got rich betting against charlatans like @JustinWolfers (Green Lumber Fallacy chapter in #Antifragile) pic.twitter.com\/gNAOVsDREI<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:46 AM – 19 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Funny pple don’t realize @loveconcursall “Lara Stuart-M\u00fcller” frm Zurich is in fact a fat male bearded ISIS operative @ThePorcie @wootwoo3 Permalink<\/a> 6:08 PM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb .@loveconcursall Please explain the “lie” in a historical fact. They don’t have someone smarter to represent the Syrian opposition? Permalink<\/a> 3:40 PM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Pple in the BS-vending business BS even more when it becomes too obvious they’re in the BS business #noskininthegamehttps:\/\/twitter.com\/JustinWolfers\/status\/799712650674388993 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:18 PM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Russians rang the bells of the Mar Georgios Greek Orthodox Cathedral. People remember. https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Saint_George_Greek_Orthodox_Cathedral <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/799744116586348545 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:50 PM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb First time church bells were heard in Beirut under Ottomans was in 1773 when the Russian fleet came. To understand Putin in Syria & support. Permalink<\/a> 2:40 PM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Medawar (round in Levantine) seems to come from Aramaic (Arabic: mustadir). @zaliin Permalink<\/a> 2:14 PM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I can’t wear a cross in Saudi Arabia. Apostates are executed. I am not going to cry for you yet. @Quran_Chart @asadabukhalil Permalink<\/a> 1:42 PM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Bigotry” against Arab states when they treat non-Sunnis like deviants? This is called “Arab Bullshit” @tomazy_m @leithfadel @asadabukhalil Permalink<\/a> 1:20 PM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb .@sterndavidi 2000 out of 1.3 million Moroccan Jews! Permalink<\/a> 1:19 PM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb US State dept estimate of Jews in Iran is ~ 20-25K @EliCash22 @asadabukhalil https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Persian_Jews <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:09 PM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is true. Note Iran still has 25,000 Jews. Arab countries have practically none left.https:\/\/twitter.com\/asadabukhalil\/status\/799714208690491392 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:05 PM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Presenting Medical summary paper on Antifragility Nov 28 at the U of Pennsylvania School of Medicine. Paper: http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/medicine.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:31 AM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Cannot hide my Schadenfreude watching @R_Thaler panic attacks -& nudgers who banked on Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison to manipulate citizens.https:\/\/twitter.com\/r_thaler\/status\/799405867691077632 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:19 AM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb UK universities ban newspapers on campus,yet allow Salafi propaganda. Anyone ag. Salafis becomes “Islamophobe”. Boycott UK universities? Permalink<\/a> 5:04 AM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb x=y != z in the right side corridor @CutTheKnotMath @mikeandallie pic.twitter.com\/pZBOhqZrcG<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:45 AM – 18 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb After last nomination I feel that my dream of seeing Saudi\/Qatari royals in Guantanamo getting close…All my betes noires are falling now! Permalink<\/a> 6:25 PM – 17 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Aramaic du jour: Kfar (kafr) and Dar (dor) relate to “round”. Dar also village\/house. Dar & Medawar => same root. pic.twitter.com\/IqidB3sUV7<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:56 PM – 17 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@mikeandallie @CutTheKnotMath @nntaleb was able to print the shape and will use it for a project with my kids tonight. Thanks for sharing your work. pic.twitter.com\/uNip1bykoQ<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:05 PM – 17 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A clear explanation of my problem with 538 probabilities.https:\/\/hedgefundsmarts.wordpress.com\/2016\/11\/17\/smoke-gets-in-your-eyes-clinton-landslide-and-other-pipe-dreams\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:54 PM – 17 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb John Bolton needs to be put in a psychiatric asylum. The very problem of Iran w\/West is a regime change (Mosadegh).https:\/\/twitter.com\/jessicaschulb\/status\/799380410362904576 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:51 PM – 17 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb One leg of the octopus @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com\/tcT67IMYIq<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:42 PM – 17 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb After the fact some people think they got it.https:\/\/twitter.com\/ejnbo\/status\/799346863065341952 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:28 PM – 17 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A better perspective on a Mandelbrotian Octopus @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com\/ytIYwVxGL9<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:38 AM – 17 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The first idiot to fire from the State Department. But from my experience replacing all the staff is necessary.https:\/\/twitter.com\/LinaArabii\/status\/799193394761400320 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:06 AM – 17 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You get a beautiful Mandelbrotian mathematical object at the “nugget”, worth exploring. @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com\/mNceojHgDK<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:14 AM – 17 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The IYI Class slowing realizing that everything they know turned out to be fiction, as in Candid Camera. pic.twitter.com\/TaoffZ7qsi<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:44 AM – 17 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@byzantinepower The more you learn about Byzantium the more you learn how acutely the Syriac genius inflected its character. The West lost that spark. Permalink<\/a> 4:24 AM – 17 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 8 days after about everything the IYI class (forecasters, journos, pol “scientists”, Pinker) knows fell apart; starting to realize what… Permalink<\/a> 4:23 AM – 17 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Donaldo considering Nikki Haley, an Indian Sikh woman is a stroke of genius! @realDonaldTrump Permalink<\/a> 3:21 PM – 16 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The saying “silence is gold” applies only to fools. Permalink<\/a> 1:29 PM – 16 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Gibbon on Syrian (Greeks) fashion-obsessions & “contempt for female modesty”. Fashion week in Laodicea(Latakia) now! pic.twitter.com\/cwWiF7BMmG<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:58 PM – 16 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sweet vindication: publisher said sales of electronics books down 17-30% pending on genre vs real books. #lindyeffect at work Permalink<\/a> 11:37 AM – 16 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@RandPaul “I can’t support anybody to be our secretary of state who didn’t learn the lesson of the Iraq War,”http:\/\/reason.com\/blog\/2016\/11\/15\/interview-with-rand-paul-i-cant-support <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:08 AM – 16 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How to get rid of intruders who bug you for selfies. pic.twitter.com\/MbHVml3fwl<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:46 AM – 16 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) Turned out that @yaneerbaryam has used a version of Simpson’s Paradox to debunk math of the Selfish Gene by entertainer @RichardDawkins Permalink<\/a> 4:33 AM – 16 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The same people who complain that we only had 2 “bad” choices in election also complained abt my ethics of voting for 3rd party. #IYI Permalink<\/a> 4:04 AM – 16 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb After Pinker gets elementary statistical significance (if),we’ll teach him Simpson’s Paradox https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Simpson%27s_paradox <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/798351010544566272 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:33 PM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@RomKoziol @nntaleb You reach a point when you have had enough of the BS, the hype, the gurus, the new age stuff, etc. and you say it like it is. Permalink<\/a> 2:25 PM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Doesn’t look good. @TimHarford @obradovits1 Permalink<\/a> 11:27 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Paula, @schmittpaula Nice surprise to get this in my feed. I will order them immediately! Permalink<\/a> 7:56 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Did you read Antifragile, Yes\/No? @TimHarford @obradovits1 Permalink<\/a> 7:11 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Also a lot of people in NY who voted Johnson would have voted Trump. @neilchriss Permalink<\/a> 5:57 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb After that, sign the petition to allow S. Pinker’s to wave statistical significance in work on drop in violence.https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/798351010544566272 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:50 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ask @TimHarford. In my copy, he did not acknowledge anything. @malikbarak Permalink<\/a> 5:34 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Well… as it turned out I’ve taken a look at the former. @limawort @PoliticsProse @TimHarford @FearNoTrieb Permalink<\/a> 5:22 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Hence the “populist” dislike of IYI is ingrained is about all languages. @MarcosCarreira @stan_yurin Permalink<\/a> 5:21 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Any idea of diff betw “The Power of Disorder to Transform our Lives”& “Antifragile: Things That Gain From Disorder”?https:\/\/twitter.com\/PoliticsProse\/status\/798189353415491585 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:18 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends, looking for info on how many read an Op-Ed in NYT if total circulation is, say 1mil. 90k? What’s typical hits of OpE on Bloomberg? Permalink<\/a> 4:32 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To whoever translated this: “fatphobia” is fear of dietary fat, not “gordofobia” (overweight)! #traduttoretradittorehttps:\/\/twitter.com\/griverom\/status\/798479605271318528 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:13 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3) This, given the presumption Aristotle was translated into Arabic not from the Greek, but from the Aramaic-Syriac. [Evidence for Galen] Permalink<\/a> 2:59 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) Is Levantine is the only language in which the term “philosopher” is derogatory? To bullshit (produce non solid verbiage) = “tfalsaf” Permalink<\/a> 2:56 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Aramaic du Jour: Discovered that “Intellectual Yet Idiot” translates into Levantine as… “philosopher” (faylasouf!)https:\/\/medium.com\/@nntaleb\/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.dpt9b52xo <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:54 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Intellctual Yet Idiot (IYI) article is spreading into the languages IYIs speak.http:\/\/www.nzz.ch\/feuilleton\/aktuell\/nassim-nicholas-taleb-die-wohlwissenden-ld.128349 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:44 AM – 15 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am not often angry (saliency), but why WTF do readers expect authors to write motivational messages on twitter?https:\/\/twitter.com\/WriteWthCourage\/status\/798260310285185024 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:51 PM – 14 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The best so far! @robert_wehttps:\/\/twitter.com\/robert_we\/status\/798258175946457093 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:31 PM – 14 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4- The Lesson of 2016 is that it took social media (not a “free” press) to take universal suffrage to its natural conclusion. Permalink<\/a> 9:31 AM – 14 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Let’s model a random Congress composed of citizens. It shd best represent the population by LLN. See Pluchino etal. @normonics @yaneerbaryam Permalink<\/a> 8:17 AM – 14 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In Complex Systems Terms: Populism: bottom-up spontaneous-order participation NonPopulism “democracy”: hierarchical & constrained choices Permalink<\/a> 7:58 AM – 14 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Finally converging to becoming the author of a single book: the INCERTO is out tomorrow.https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/0399590455\/ref=cm_sw_r_tw_dp_x_qiCkybRNATJZ8 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:13 AM – 14 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb When you risk other people’s lives for “ideas” w\/o paying the price & w\/o being apologetic, #skininthegame. Kapish? @geor97 @BillKristol Permalink<\/a> 6:02 AM – 14 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I hope this scum @BillKristol is forced to settle in Iraq, & risks beheading by ISIS. Scum, scum, scum.https:\/\/twitter.com\/BillKristol\/status\/798153276092981248 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:46 AM – 14 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Populism: democratic participation by the uneducated population when conflicts w\/that of the miseducated one. Works?https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/797964184956891136 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:29 AM – 14 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thank you @kilkenomics !!!https:\/\/twitter.com\/mdvex\/status\/798076026622451712 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:39 AM – 14 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fucking idiot I said “rigorous” not political science. @dandrezner Permalink<\/a> 5:04 PM – 13 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am still looking for someone to give a rigorous explanation\/explanation of difference between populism & democracy. Nothing yet. Permalink<\/a> 4:47 PM – 13 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Graphical view of the problem: >1 except in a tiny nugget around {0,0,0} @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com\/ULkgMsX61Z<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:48 PM – 13 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Graphical view of the problem: >1 except in a tiny nugget around {0,0,0} @CutTheKnotMath pic.twitter.com\/ULkgMsX61Z<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:48 PM – 13 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No idiot the NYT gave legitimacy to the Iraq incasion @John_F_Donnelly @kilkenomics Permalink<\/a> 1:41 PM – 13 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Let us not forget that the NYT was largely responsible for the Iraq mess. Includes pundits like Thomas Friedmam @kilkenomics Permalink<\/a> 1:16 PM – 13 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@kilkenomics “A vote for #Brexit is a vote for complex systems” – @nntaleb #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com\/BoPIfGLR8r<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:03 AM – 13 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@kilkenomics “A vote for #Brexit is a vote for complex systems” – @nntaleb #kilkenomics pic.twitter.com\/BoPIfGLR8r<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:03 AM – 13 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Rituals are the music of life. Permalink<\/a> 1:43 PM – 12 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I told Politico to get lost for that “Black Swan” article. @SamWahlenpic.twitter.com\/yUUniDRn0y<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I told Politico to get lost for that “Black Swan” article. @SamWahlen pic.twitter.com\/yUUniDRn0y<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The IYI didn’t get that censoring pple w\/unfair tags “racist”,”sexist”,”schlongist” doesn’t work unless they also censor in the voting booth Permalink<\/a> 8:42 AM – 12 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Reaction of @FiveThirtyEight same as cowardly traders who unexpectedly blow up, blame mkts, God, Mars… Accept bad probabilistic reasoning! Permalink<\/a> 8:27 AM – 12 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Errors of @FiveThirtyEight et al. in “UPDATING” probabilities that shd be around .5\/ noise https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/binary%20forecasting%20538.nb.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 pic.twitter.com\/jcZccHsr63<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:07 AM – 12 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Indeed Salibi is largely unreliable; Syria’s Islamization was very slow from minority rule. https:\/\/medium.com\/@nntaleb\/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.wrrhkreke <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/joshua_landis\/status\/797444295053680640 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:57 AM – 12 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Deirdre Mc and Rory S discussing skin in the game. How Hillary shd be ambassador to Lybia.https:\/\/twitter.com\/cravenpartners\/status\/797414016352194560 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:15 AM – 12 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@CarolineKirrane .@rorysutherland delighted with his birthday cake! He got a rousing rendition of happy birthday from the crowd here at #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com\/hNFiWMlWUo<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:01 AM – 12 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@CarolineKirrane .@rorysutherland delighted with his birthday cake! He got a rousing rendition of happy birthday from the crowd here at #kilkenomics pic.twitter.com\/hNFiWMlWUo<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:01 AM – 12 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@ThomBarry Nassim. Interesting that rulers in the past usually went into battle. A Roman emperor was captured and turned into a stool! #kilkenomicspic.twitter.com\/4363uss8k1<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:42 AM – 12 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@kilkenomics Deirdre @PrudentiaMag shares that she was born ‘Donald’ which, apparently in Irish means ‘world leader’. (Don’t tell Trump!)pic.twitter.com\/zFzOrq217X<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:27 AM – 12 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My point was that it was 50% @EconomicTimes Permalink<\/a> 4:49 PM – 11 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Highly exaggerated Who called it right for Donald Trump? A professor, a filmmaker & Nassim Nicholas Talebhttp:\/\/economictimes.indiatimes.com\/news\/international\/world-news\/who-called-it-right-for-donald-trump-a-professor-a-filmmaker-and-nassim-nicholas-taleb\/articleshow\/55379214.cms <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:36 PM – 11 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The ricochet from demonizing Trump by Hillarists & idiotic media: all he has to do now is be half the monster they portrayed. #Antifragile Permalink<\/a> 2:34 PM – 11 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The verdict is that @Charles_Lister from @MiddleEastInst should be tagged as a paid promoter of Jihadi terrorism. On his employer… later Permalink<\/a> 6:09 AM – 11 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Excellent term, “sciolus”, ancien equivalent to “scientism”. Also philosophaster, bullshit artist, or just “Pinker”.https:\/\/twitter.com\/atomasevic\/status\/797028412695203840 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:04 AM – 11 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Why did Obama turn on AlQaeda now? Because Hillary is out of the way? Very strange.https:\/\/twitter.com\/EHSANI22\/status\/796850098839941120 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:24 PM – 10 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is hard to find a plumber, baker, janitor, dentist, surgeon who is an impostor. Nate Silver, St. Pinker, Sam Harris are total impostors.https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796780160162942976 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:38 PM – 10 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@GhassanDahhan The guy on the left was just added on the US list of designated terrorists. The guy on the right was just awarded the Press Freedom Award.pic.twitter.com\/h3bUU2HgMU<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:28 AM – 10 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I can’t stand impostors. Permalink<\/a> 10:22 AM – 10 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Intellectual” America: @sapinker who doesn’t know mean!= sample mean now arbiter of… probabilitistic reasoning!pic.twitter.com\/Uc59XoXqs0<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:25 AM – 10 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@Sartor1836 A Nobel Laureate* in Economics, ladies and gentlemen. cc: @nntalebhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/hackcelerity\/status\/796501638601121792 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:18 AM – 10 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb After his reaction to my earlier criticism it is my opinion @NateSilver538 should leave the business.https:\/\/twitter.com\/aigo3000\/status\/796738157802819584 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:45 AM – 10 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What is alarming isn’t that they were wrong but that these idiots underestimated their error rate. Similar to p-val https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2834266 <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/salilstatistics\/status\/796700880246571012 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:23 AM – 10 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Vienna @nutanixpic.twitter.com\/pCngG5w5p8<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:03 AM – 10 Nov 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Anyone taking conditional market forecasts frm someone (@justinwolfers) paid by charitable contributions has a pbm!https:\/\/twitter.com\/JustinWolfers\/status\/796394861633110016 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:52 PM – 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb 2\/ Sharmine Narwani @snarwani has done some work on Syria. Hama casualties <5% of what was reported. More soonhttps:\/\/mideastshuffle.com\/2013\/02\/22\/the-dirty-numbers-game-in-syria\/ \u00a0 Permalink 1:58 PM – 22 Nov 2016 @RiskMinds Watch @nntaleb live on 7th Dec for FREE! “Your grandmother’s intuitions abt #tailrisk is right”. Register here http:\/\/spr.ly\/60118GLAV \u00a0 ” target=”_blank”>http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/mGPrXkjgda”> \u00a0pic.twitter.com\/mGPrXkjgda Permalink 12:00 PM – […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1372,823,1371,1134,1370,1086,510],"class_list":["post-8503","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-arab-bullshit","tag-monsanto","tag-obama","tag-putin","tag-shias","tag-syria","tag-thaler"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8503","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8503"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8503\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8504,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8503\/revisions\/8504"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8503"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8503"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8503"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}