{"id":8490,"date":"2016-11-09T13:52:58","date_gmt":"2016-11-09T21:52:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8490"},"modified":"2016-11-09T13:52:58","modified_gmt":"2016-11-09T21:52:58","slug":"propagandists-justin-wolfers-fivethirtyeight-michiko-kakutani-nocera-aleppo-krugman-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2016\/11\/propagandists-justin-wolfers-fivethirtyeight-michiko-kakutani-nocera-aleppo-krugman-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"Propagandists, Justin Wolfers, FiveThirtyEight, Michiko Kakutani, Nocera, Aleppo, Krugman | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>@nntaleb The work by scientific entertainer Steven Pinker on violence.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/peterfranklin_\/status\/796448677380452357 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/peterfranklin_\/status\/796448677380452357 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796450714679656448\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 12:33 PM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@mdvex @orestistsinalis @nntaleb in my office<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/pPwsRMcoxH\">pic.twitter.com\/pPwsRMcoxH<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/mdvex\/status\/796402934066139136\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 9:23 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb There is no &#8220;animosity&#8221; with Harris. I just consider him an intellectual fraud. @GuzziNba @SamHarrisOrg <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796402360226553857\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 9:21 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I know I saw his papers on forecasting and noticed mathematical probability was not &#8230; for him. @HenryMyers7 @JustinWolfers <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796396365307846656\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 8:57 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@themightypuck Something @nntaleb pointed out a year ago.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/conor64\/status\/796265774440542208 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/conor64\/status\/796265774440542208 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/themightypuck\/status\/796395507308523520\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 8:54 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb That&#8217;s @JustinWolfers who should stop teaching economics, just drive an uber outside populated areas.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/carney\/status\/796390341997920256 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/carney\/status\/796390341997920256 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796393821479305216\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 8:47 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@GuruAnaerobic &#8220;Fuck You&#8221; vs bought Hilary.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/fkxXOhWKA5\">pic.twitter.com\/fkxXOhWKA5<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/GuruAnaerobic\/status\/796383544452976641\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 8:06 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The Middle East Institute @MiddleEastInst is funded by the Wahabis. Lister should mention it in every utterance @nadeemhaque @Charles_Lister <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796378909025648641\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 7:48 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Note that people like @Charles_Lister are paid by foreign governments\/terrorist sponsors to spread their agendas. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796376779388809217\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 7:39 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Should we classify propagandists like @Charles_Lister who advocate the interests of al Qaeda\/Wahabis as terrorists? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796375934450499584\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 7:36 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@yaobviously @nntaleb for a long while I thought you overstated your case against intellectuals. I was wrong. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/yaobviously\/status\/796364917628608512\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:52 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The reason I expected a Trump election would not affect the market is from noticing that ignorant IYI @JustinWolfers made Tump=lower SP. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796364178755821568\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:49 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb How do you forecast an election (cluelessness of @FiveThirtyEight ) PRELIM DRAFT <a href=\"https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/binary%20forecasting%20538.nb.pdf \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/binary%20forecasting%20538.nb.pdf <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/MdKI0ecrfZ\">pic.twitter.com\/MdKI0ecrfZ<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796357059813974017\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:21 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@EHSANI22 Clearly Americans value a job more than buying a cheap pack of 6 T.shirts made in Bangladesh for $6.99. Kudos to @nntaleb <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/EHSANI22\/status\/796330328197660672\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 4:35 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb I forgot the big losers: the neocons. We have at least 4-8 years of watching them drive uber cars \/ taxis in DC. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796233227568607233\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 10:09 PM &#8211; 8 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Who got burried? Saudi Barbaria Goldman Sacks Syrian Jihadis aka &#8220;rebels&#8221; Academic Economists w\/PseudoNobel NYT &amp; other bullshit venues. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796230799746068480\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 9:59 PM &#8211; 8 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@MaxAbrahms What&#8217;s the best explanation for why pollsters seem to have failed so badly? To his credit, @nntaleb predicted this orange swan event. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/MaxAbrahms\/status\/796226501255512064\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 9:42 PM &#8211; 8 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@SadStatueOfLib Just want to point out that @nntaleb has been calling @NateSilver538&#8217;s flaws (bullshit) in his models since&#8230; hmm, June? Earlier? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/SadStatueOfLib\/status\/796209796865228801\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 8:36 PM &#8211; 8 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Time to laugh at &#8220;Intellectuals&#8221;.<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@nntaleb\/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.x3pmha81c \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/medium.com\/@nntaleb\/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577#.x3pmha81c <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796222083692949504\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 9:25 PM &#8211; 8 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@john_f_hamer @nntaleb You&#8217;ve arrived, Nassim; you&#8217;ve arrived.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/FX8cUQ997E\">pic.twitter.com\/FX8cUQ997E<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/john_f_hamer\/status\/796126582058455041\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 3:05 PM &#8211; 8 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@ghchammas 4 cousins in amioun lebanon @nntaleb<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/ljAxOjYYkk\">pic.twitter.com\/ljAxOjYYkk<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/ghchammas\/status\/796061736159903744\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 10:48 AM &#8211; 8 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb An example of forecaster A better than B regardless of final<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/2zeH1hJ5he\">pic.twitter.com\/2zeH1hJ5he<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796032549508313090\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 8:52 AM &#8211; 8 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Correction: Solent it turned out is not yet out of business. Not yet. @EmanuelDerman @zzbar @motherboard <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/796010360201498624\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 7:23 AM &#8211; 8 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb New edition of Procrustes. No more than 4 aphorisms per day. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical-Aphorisms\/dp\/0812982401\/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&amp;qid=&amp;sr= \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical-Aphorisms\/dp\/0812982401\/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&amp;qid=&amp;sr= <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/FErRAAxzFa\">pic.twitter.com\/FErRAAxzFa<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795998595166142464\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:37 AM &#8211; 8 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb We got a great vindication w\/ Soylent going out of business. Keep neomania out of food.@EmanuelDerman @zzbar @motherboard <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795994292733022208\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:20 AM &#8211; 8 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Some probability musings from North Lebanon: how to compare forecasters BEFORE final outcome.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/57ShuNvVVH\">pic.twitter.com\/57ShuNvVVH<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795989782832758784\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:02 AM &#8211; 8 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Any human being who reads anything from @michikokakutani is at war with reason.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/michikokakutani\/status\/795752769420492800 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/michikokakutani\/status\/795752769420492800 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795780186553929728\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 4:09 PM &#8211; 7 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Trump is just a symptom not a disease. Message: establishment is so bad that a random Bronx Zoo animal less harmful.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/xcZLVKFuPs\">pic.twitter.com\/xcZLVKFuPs<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795771639388655616\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 3:35 PM &#8211; 7 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Levantine for &#8220;this&#8221;: hayda, haydi,pl. hol. comes frm Syro-Aramaic: hod, hodo. Now hano\/hathe in Turoyo @SahinChris<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/WALhu4nJki\">pic.twitter.com\/WALhu4nJki<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795764841558511616\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 3:08 PM &#8211; 7 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb John Gray is the real thing.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/orestistsinalis\/status\/795655586998325248 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/orestistsinalis\/status\/795655586998325248 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795662861666308096\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 8:23 AM &#8211; 7 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@joshua_landis Syrian rebels think it is OK to use civilians as Human Shields but not when Asad or ISIS do it. All powers are guilty when holding civilians<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/RevolutionSyria\/status\/792891242581487616 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/RevolutionSyria\/status\/792891242581487616 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/joshua_landis\/status\/795397187828121600\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 2:47 PM &#8211; 6 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb \u201cStrength Training is Learning from Tail Events\u201d by @nntaleb<a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@nntaleb\/strength-training-is-learning-from-tail-events-7aa2c074569d?source=twitterShare-f138bf5466fe-1478475236 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/medium.com\/@nntaleb\/strength-training-is-learning-from-tail-events-7aa2c074569d?source=twitterShare-f138bf5466fe-1478475236 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795408963382738945\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 3:34 PM &#8211; 6 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Nocera, you&#8217;re a BS vendor. But everything you do to cover-up your BS vending entails more BS-vending. Keep quiet &amp; non nocere, @NoceraNYT <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795354172107399168\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 11:56 AM &#8211; 6 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@RiskMinds &#8220;Your grandmother&#8217;s intuitions about #tailrisk is usually right&#8221;. Don&#8217;t miss @nntaleb @ #RiskMinds. More here <a href=\"http:\/\/spr.ly\/60168EODK \" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/spr.ly\/60168EODK <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/BAX0fIHKdv\">pic.twitter.com\/BAX0fIHKdv<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/RiskMinds\/status\/795294675229876224\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 8:00 AM &#8211; 6 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Version 2 (cleared typos) @CoachRippetoe<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/4i9cF0Yj1r\">pic.twitter.com\/4i9cF0Yj1r<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795285098354589697\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 7:21 AM &#8211; 6 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Tail risk management &amp; weightlifting? Draft of the forward for a book published by @CoachRippetoe,for comments.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/XXCtXSCwRO\">pic.twitter.com\/XXCtXSCwRO<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795279198357258240\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:58 AM &#8211; 6 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Syriac is Eastern Aramaic (Western Aramaic ~ Jerusalem\/Damascus\/Maaloula, Western Syriac ~ Nineveh, Eastern Syriac ~ Babylon) @rennyabraham <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795266214490767360\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:06 AM &#8211; 6 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Aramaic du Jour: &#8220;kursh&#8221;, slang for &#8220;belly&#8221; in Levantine, is from Accadian: Gilgamesh, Tablet 10, 222.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/UOOy0K26De\">pic.twitter.com\/UOOy0K26De<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795252614933970944\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 5:12 AM &#8211; 6 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Yes, &#8220;Boy&#8221; as a sign of disrespect. You have a problem with displaying my intellectual (&amp; personal) disrespect for you? @NoceraNYT <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/795019505516822529\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 2:46 PM &#8211; 5 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Nocera boy, @NoceraNYT, let me debate you on &#8220;Aleppo&#8221; to show you what &#8220;Ignorance&#8221; is. You can even use Aramaic, W. Syriac or Syrian Arabic. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794926118121914368\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 8:35 AM &#8211; 5 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@DrJillStein Saudi Arabia: -top Clinton Foundation donor -lobbies US via Podesta group -got record arms deals from Obama\/Clinton -top terrorism sponsor <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/DrJillStein\/status\/794621861871185920\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 12:26 PM &#8211; 4 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb A neat way to transform a Wiener process (\\-infty,infty) to election probabilities [0,1].<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/zKzhN6DtZv\">pic.twitter.com\/zKzhN6DtZv<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794916591746056193\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 7:57 AM &#8211; 5 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Nocera, next time you attend my lecture, remind me to teach you &#8220;straw man argument&#8221; &amp; intel. dishonesty. <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Straw_man \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Straw_man <\/a>\u00a0 @NoceraNYT <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794906001640194054\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 7:15 AM &#8211; 5 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@lourou1981 @nntaleb the linguistic map of Syria looks strikingly similar to the sphere of control of diff factions in Syria today. Sheer coincidence? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/lourou1981\/status\/794700001817534464\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 5:36 PM &#8211; 4 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb (actually during the crisis) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794665682143182848\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 3:20 PM &#8211; 4 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb With Mandelbrot right before the crisis. Alas, weightlifting makes one gain weight.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/HarriusHaller\/status\/794662544334057472 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/HarriusHaller\/status\/794662544334057472 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794665444611411968\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 3:19 PM &#8211; 4 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb In other words every person should vote according to way he or she expects or prefers others to vote. Be uncompromising with virtue ! <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794627514035556352\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 12:48 PM &#8211; 4 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb What makes a good election forecaster? Not the Brier metric 538 is a terrible forecaster regardless of final outcome<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/IF39qauxtP\">pic.twitter.com\/IF39qauxtP<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794608806072352769\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 11:34 AM &#8211; 4 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2) If Nocera were better read he would have suspected there is such a thing as deontic ethics. <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Deontological_ethics \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Deontological_ethics <\/a>\u00a0 @NoceraNYT <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794526343383781376\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:06 AM &#8211; 4 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Better NOT know where Aleppo is than BS about it with half knowledge a la Joe Nocera. IYI Joe Nocera. <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/@nntaleb\/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/medium.com\/@nntaleb\/the-intellectual-yet-idiot-13211e2d0577 <\/a>\u00a0 @NoceraNYT <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794516143088267264\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 5:26 AM &#8211; 4 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Dectecting another slip: I said &#8220;preferences&#8221;. I most probably meant &#8220;principles&#8221;. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794275153052106759\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 1:28 PM &#8211; 3 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Why my ethics dictate that I vote for the 3rd party regardless of odds<a href=\"http:\/\/cnb.cx\/2eZeyPC \" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/cnb.cx\/2eZeyPC <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794272616202829833\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 1:18 PM &#8211; 3 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Even if #GMOs will &#8220;feed the world&#8221;, you need to look at risks of ruin. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html \" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html <\/a>\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/NonGMOProject\/status\/794262188349210624 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/NonGMOProject\/status\/794262188349210624 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794266790478151682\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 12:55 PM &#8211; 3 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Spent too much time cleaning the data on Mongolian invasions. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794260933883416576\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 12:32 PM &#8211; 3 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Typo on CNBC: Said 1308 then corrected 1208 and said Attila for Genghis. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794256014971457536\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 12:12 PM &#8211; 3 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Civis romanus sum @BlackWhiteKnite <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794013966645297152\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 8:10 PM &#8211; 2 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Unlike in static forecasting, the best dynamic forecaster (time) is he who every period forecasts HIS OWN next forecast best. (to continue) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/794008410815688704\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 7:48 PM &#8211; 2 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb You mean one of these deranged fellows ? @EconMBA @egfalken @IllimitableMan <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/smear.html \" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/smear.html <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793929681380737024\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 2:36 PM &#8211; 2 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Mr Krugman, for economists, to &#8220;invoke authority&#8221;, well &#8230; not a good idea, to put it mildly.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/paulkrugman\/status\/793813730454888449 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/paulkrugman\/status\/793813730454888449 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793815829838123008\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 7:03 AM &#8211; 2 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Scam alert: @Fidelity offers a credit card via outside Co, designed to charge late fees+ interest to unsuspecting, similar to Wells Fargo. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793803305306755072\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:13 AM &#8211; 2 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Levantine du Jour: Ammianus Marcellinus was another Syro-Phoenician Greek. <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ammianus_Marcellinus#cite_note-Britannica-1 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ammianus_Marcellinus#cite_note-Britannica-1 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793791166894465024\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 5:25 AM &#8211; 2 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2) Today someone w\/economics degree has a higher chance of sleeping with Kim Kardashian than getting a job as a trader. Finance = STEM <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793786741073272832\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 5:08 AM &#8211; 2 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Economics is a fake discipline; attempts to improve it (s.a.&#8221;behavioral&#8221;,&#8221;evo&#8221;) made it worse! Finance moved to mathematics, accounting,etc. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793785966662213632\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 5:04 AM &#8211; 2 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Psychologists are way behind probability\/complexity theory in their &#8220;normative&#8221; definition of rationality.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SanguineEmpiric\/status\/793646879485538304 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/SanguineEmpiric\/status\/793646879485538304 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793780892225433604\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 4:44 AM &#8211; 2 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Quite insulting to probability when someone &#8220;estimates&#8221; noise with precision: 24.8%, not 25 or 24. #clueless<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/FiveThirtyEight\/status\/793298019693146113 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/FiveThirtyEight\/status\/793298019693146113 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793550527334346756\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 1:29 PM &#8211; 1 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb 2) If you understand nothing about the problem (like DC pundits) then it becomes Iran vs Saudi Arabia, US vs Russia, Mars vs Saturn. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793458964742729729\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 7:25 AM &#8211; 1 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Ignorant pundit (IYIs) see everything w\/the magnified prism of geopolitics, not local people trying to make things work. #Lebanon elections <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793456428707094528\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 7:15 AM &#8211; 1 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb &#8230; with HUGE (yuge) practical consequences on model error. @CutTheKnotMath @neilchriss<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/3ezlq1QaSJ\">pic.twitter.com\/3ezlq1QaSJ<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793438017457389569\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:02 AM &#8211; 1 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb V. counterintuitive useful mathematical result:How higher dimensional areas get SMALLER. @CutTheKnotMath @neilchriss<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/uqGuHzptXx\">pic.twitter.com\/uqGuHzptXx<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793436784382373888\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 5:57 AM &#8211; 1 Nov 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb (what they say about Oxford) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793253957552467968\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 5:50 PM &#8211; 31 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb What they call engineering is really physics; what they call physics is math, what they call math nobody knows what it is. @PeterVeep <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793251673707802624\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 5:41 PM &#8211; 31 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The conflict: Engineers, applied-probabilists, physicists think in terms of applications; mathematicians view math as art. @CutTheKnotMath <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793170172228018176\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 12:18 PM &#8211; 31 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb That poor @NateSilver538 still doesn&#8217;t get that the possibility of unexpected \u2191 variance &amp; moves probabilities\u2192 50%<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Thesokorus\/status\/793125893715685377 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/Thesokorus\/status\/793125893715685377 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793129094166740994\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 9:34 AM &#8211; 31 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb A relevant lesson from Podesta\/Huma: bureaucrats &amp; empty suits spend their time in multiplicative\/metastatic low information emailing. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793111527502905345\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 8:24 AM &#8211; 31 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Typo. Range for thega [0, \\pi] not [0, 2 \\pi ]. Varphi in [ 0, 2 pi] <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793105445611155456\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 8:00 AM &#8211; 31 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb \u1f00\u03c0\u1f78 \u03bc\u03b7\u03c7\u03b1\u03bd\u1fc6\u03c2 \u03b8\u03b5\u03cc\u03c2 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793102887148777472\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 7:50 AM &#8211; 31 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Fooled by Correlations (cont), a geometric tutorial. Hard to visualize in dimensions &gt;3.<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/6cmW6Krx2r\">pic.twitter.com\/6cmW6Krx2r<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793095770450919424\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 7:22 AM &#8211; 31 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb La trahison des clercs! The disgusting pseudoleft support for: Saudi Barbaria\/Islamofascism Shillary Megacorps <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wiktionary.org\/wiki\/trahison_des_clercs \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/en.wiktionary.org\/wiki\/trahison_des_clercs <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793078513221918720\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:13 AM &#8211; 31 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb You never hear the pseudo-left &amp; neocons say &#8220;butcher of Yemen&#8221;. Nor alQaeda in Aleppo ever called &#8220;butchers&#8221;.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/joshua_landis\/status\/793063579599577088 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/joshua_landis\/status\/793063579599577088 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/793077069185966080\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:08 AM &#8211; 31 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb (From a few months ago) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/792942339761242112\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 9:12 PM &#8211; 30 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb My election model<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/zzbar\/status\/792926636098330624 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/zzbar\/status\/792926636098330624 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/792935960912732160\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 8:47 PM &#8211; 30 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb The amount of short tails in the system in order to generate returns for retirees is mindbogggggling.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/zerohedge\/status\/792890807699247104 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/zerohedge\/status\/792890807699247104 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/792896267676446720\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:09 PM &#8211; 30 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@MaxAbrahms Gary Kasparov is on CNN talking about how Russia wants Trump to win. Who will CNN have talk about how Saudi Arabia wants Hillary to win? <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/MaxAbrahms\/status\/792877527853334528\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 4:55 PM &#8211; 30 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Virtue is what you do when nobody is looking. The rest is marketing. #TheBedofProcrustes (but I can&#8217;t remember for sure) <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/792831318300225536\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 1:51 PM &#8211; 30 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb GMOs advocacy reveals charlatanism, proposing solutions w\/unseen side effects; scientism for profit. @philipbstark<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/vL8Qcw8U7m\">pic.twitter.com\/vL8Qcw8U7m<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/792824523041173505\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 1:24 PM &#8211; 30 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Being nice counts the most when you are nice to people ignored by others. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/792823813260079106\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 1:21 PM &#8211; 30 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@ggreenwald The savage Saudi\/US\/UK war on Yemen lacks all the typical propaganda options- we&#8217;re bombing for freedom, Bad Dictator, etc- so it&#8217;s ignored. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/ggreenwald\/status\/792721318328360961\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:34 AM &#8211; 30 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Journos &amp; soc. &#8220;scientists&#8221; fail to detect the difference betw science and scientism.<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/dmandl\/status\/792721099662307328 \" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/twitter.com\/dmandl\/status\/792721099662307328 <\/a>\u00a0 <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/792721716179046400\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 6:35 AM &#8211; 30 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb Ironically the computer allows us to do more abstract math as it does the nitty gritty sh*t work &amp; frees us to see deeper @CutTheKnotMath <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/792712636077051904\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 5:59 AM &#8211; 30 Oct 2016<\/p>\n<p>@nntaleb We should put ellipticality in our book as higher D fat tails while lower D thin tailed @DrCirillo @financequant<a href=\"http:\/\/pic.twitter.com\/JnF0CpvbmS\">pic.twitter.com\/JnF0CpvbmS<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/www.twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/792703542301696000\" target=\"_blank\">Permalink<\/a> 5:23 AM &#8211; 30 Oct 2016<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>@nntaleb The work by scientific entertainer Steven Pinker on violence.https:\/\/twitter.com\/peterfranklin_\/status\/796448677380452357 \u00a0 Permalink 12:33 PM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016 @mdvex @orestistsinalis @nntaleb in my officepic.twitter.com\/pPwsRMcoxH Permalink 9:23 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016 @nntaleb There is no &#8220;animosity&#8221; with Harris. I just consider him an intellectual fraud. @GuzziNba @SamHarrisOrg Permalink 9:21 AM &#8211; 9 Nov 2016 @nntaleb [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1315,1360,1364,314,625,1233,1363],"class_list":["post-8490","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-fivethirtyeight","tag-aleppo","tag-justin-wolfers","tag-krugman","tag-michiko-kakutani","tag-nocera","tag-propagandists"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8490","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8490"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8490\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8491,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8490\/revisions\/8491"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8490"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8490"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8490"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}