{"id":8445,"date":"2016-08-16T13:29:08","date_gmt":"2016-08-16T20:29:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8445"},"modified":"2016-08-16T13:29:08","modified_gmt":"2016-08-16T20:29:08","slug":"pinker-stewart-brand-charlatans-syria-godel-popper-erdogan-mathematica-elections-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2016\/08\/pinker-stewart-brand-charlatans-syria-godel-popper-erdogan-mathematica-elections-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"Pinker, Stewart Brand, Charlatans, Syria, Godel-Popper, Erdogan, Mathematica, Elections | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb Pinker like charlatans talks to the press but no technical work.@sapinker is a BS artist. https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/26772813\/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/50YrAt70kR<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:56 PM – 16 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Pinker has about every attribute of the charlatan. Nothing short of a charlatan. https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/26772813\/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/765546814384799744 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:51 PM – 16 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/ Steady “Arabization” of Syria, away from its rich Syro-Greco-Aramaic heritage via schooling; shd reverse after Saudi bankruptcy. Permalink<\/a> 12:46 PM – 16 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1)The tension in Syria has antecedent:1000 y tension SyroPhoenician Graeco-Roman v\/s desert Arabs; cities vs desert.pic.twitter.com\/jMvid2I2a3<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:33 PM – 16 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Have I ever been subtle with my opinions? @JRLV_Inc Permalink<\/a> 11:27 AM – 16 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The elephant may misbehave on the occasion (particularly during hormonal episodes) but he is not a predator. Permalink<\/a> 10:16 AM – 16 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Stewart Brand, you are not a scientist, you are a shrill and a charlatan. @stewartbrand @dawallach @berggruenInst http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:05 AM – 16 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Refine your mind, avoiding BS, journos,& statistical noise to the point that a logical flaw\/nonsense sound like a jarring note in a concert. Permalink<\/a> 10:02 AM – 16 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fucking idiot it is NOT Pascal’s wager! @carlosortegap http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:01 AM – 16 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Rule: No brain surgery for aheadache if painkiller (or a night’s sleep) can do. #GMOs: a risky unscientific scam.https:\/\/twitter.com\/michaelpollan\/status\/765248478851239936 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:57 AM – 16 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A paper to present to @DrCirillo at his conference in Leiden. With mistakes.pic.twitter.com\/O3aA8AvR02<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:50 AM – 16 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb IYI (intellectuals yet idiots) in UK condem screening of Salafis but ignore bullying\/murder of apostates\/hate speechhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Iram_Ramzan\/status\/765261728204587008 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:51 PM – 15 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Plautus: “Eru’meus elephanti corio circumtentust” My master has the *skin of an elephant* @bradd_libby Permalink<\/a> 11:27 AM – 15 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Elephant. My favorite animal: takes no crap, gives no crap, harms no-one but when one tries to harm it, never forgets. Permalink<\/a> 11:18 AM – 15 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Guess (an animal)https:\/\/twitter.com\/oinkbaamoo\/status\/765245086619828224 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:03 AM – 15 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb All books have animals now in UK @JamesNamorpic.twitter.com\/j6LMapwKyN<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:31 AM – 15 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thing for squid Ink went too far. Publisher asked “what animal on the cover of Antifragile?” I said “squid!”. Close.pic.twitter.com\/bOYrhrwO2X<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:06 AM – 15 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tolerance (intellectual): Pagan Gr-Roman>Christian(Orth)~Muslim (Shiite)~Secular> Protestant>Christian (Cath)>Atheist>Muslim (Salafi). True? Permalink<\/a> 9:56 AM – 15 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Looks like my obsession with squid ink is backfiring, trivializing the philter via mainstream commercialization.https:\/\/twitter.com\/o_liveco\/status\/765216026820837380 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:11 AM – 15 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb IYI (Intellectual yet idiot) @billkristol w\/peers blew up Iraq & Lybia. No apologies, no learning, no #Skininthegamehttps:\/\/twitter.com\/BillKristol\/status\/765154912548294656 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:51 AM – 15 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@GhassanDahhan A message from an Algerian woman who was put on a Salafi death-list: No tolerance for the intolerants! (@nntaleb)pic.twitter.com\/Zqq2sYZ23l<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:43 AM – 15 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I just published \u201cCommencement Address, American University in Beirut, 2016\u201dhttps:\/\/medium.com\/@nntaled\/commencement-address-american-university-in-beirut-2016-a5c6d57984b#.bfhrwes8k <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:07 PM – 14 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends, does anyone know this book? \u201cOn Monotheistic Violence\u201d.pic.twitter.com\/qjxNZTQtoA<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:48 PM – 14 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Much of what we hear on Syria is propaganda by PR firms\/Arab journos. For our paper saw War accounts oft unreliable.https:\/\/storify.com\/MoonofA\/how-the-aleppo-hospitals <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:59 AM – 14 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Student days.pic.twitter.com\/9c4qbugqlJ<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:30 AM – 14 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Just published \u201cThe Most Intolerant Wins: The Dictatorship of the Small Minority\u201dhttps:\/\/medium.com\/@nntaled\/the-most-intolerant-wins-the-dictatorship-of-the-small-minority-3f1f83ce4e15#.cq32okfgf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:29 AM – 14 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Godel-Popper rule: No freedom to the enemies of freedom No rights to the enemies of rights No democracy to the enemies of democracy Kapish? Permalink<\/a> 4:01 AM – 14 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Car ahead of me with SQUIDINK license plate. Trying to make contact, get recipes, restaurant names …pic.twitter.com\/40UHd6ypEj<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:41 PM – 13 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@alancliddell @nntaleb Calvin and Muad’Dib:pic.twitter.com\/QeutuwekaR<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:15 PM – 13 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Salafis in France have the nerve to use French freedom of dress to block antiburkini laws.http:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/societe\/article\/2016\/08\/13\/le-tribunal-administratif-valide-l-arrete-municipal-bannissant-le-burkini-a-cannes_4982397_3224.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:14 PM – 13 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/ In 1818, the Ottomans beheaded Wahabi boss Ibn Saud, forcing him to listen to music (banned by Wahabis). https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Abdullah_bin_Saud <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:21 PM – 13 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In every undertaking, the more humans try to be demi-gods, the more they become half-monsters. https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10154053650028375 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:12 AM – 13 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am allergic to the term”contrarian”. Assumes a contrary opinion on everything, the opposite of critical thinking. Kapish? @AlanInterface Permalink<\/a> 10:06 AM – 13 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Pre-1918, 2 centers of Islam: Istanbul v\/s Wahabis. West (UK) supported Wahabi revolt. If Erdogan brings back Istanbul, much, much better! Permalink<\/a> 7:29 AM – 13 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thou Shalt Not use Publick Service to Collect Speaking Fees. (Skin in the Game)pic.twitter.com\/X35gMq2dc0<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:05 AM – 13 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Small differences in sigma\/errors blow up a 6-sigma by a huge “yuge” amount @D0YouEvenSplash @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com\/nPeL4uNMwN<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:32 AM – 13 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Here shows comparisons of convavity between n-iterated logthms and power functions @5upercrabpic.twitter.com\/KBPdshFodr<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:20 AM – 13 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Even if IQ is measurable, tail IQ would not be beyond the category “very high”. (Variance in extremes, Vega\/delta)https:\/\/twitter.com\/CutTheKnotMath\/status\/760688453218660352 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:24 AM – 13 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Jeff Holman, the incompetent risk manager who went after Antifragile is now w\/ @SentientDAI in “intelligent”systems https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1401.2524.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:33 PM – 12 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@MarkVirag Wow this is good http:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/how-global-elites-forsake-their-countrymen-1470959258 <\/a>\u00a0 what @nntaleb would call “no skin in the game”pic.twitter.com\/Rrg2kOfLdx<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:53 PM – 12 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sunk cost fallacy is only fallacy for specific series of independent bets. @rorysutherland @alexvgeorgiev @TriversRobert @jasonacollins Permalink<\/a> 5:18 AM – 12 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Boris IV, let’s end the cold war and focus on the Wahabi cancer.https:\/\/twitter.com\/MaxAbrahms\/status\/764070804296314880 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:16 AM – 12 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb These pple, like 538, are not getting that a poll is an *estimator*, hence tracking error pulls it towards 50%. @tomgg @zhaep @neilchriss Permalink<\/a> 5:04 AM – 12 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Math du jour: nesting functions for iterated logarithms, the perfect concave but unbounded function.pic.twitter.com\/ohPgT4Zuzs<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:56 AM – 12 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Olympics: Greek ideal of \u1f00\u03c1\u03b5\u03c4\u03ae, at human scale. Circus: exploitation of deformities, unscaled Current Olympics: exploitation of deformities! Permalink<\/a> 3:23 AM – 12 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Pierre de Jean Olivi, 13th Century.https:\/\/twitter.com\/RichardMoorhead\/status\/764000633431076865 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:13 AM – 12 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Block someone logically defective w\/low-self esteem & you have an overactive hater for life: cheapest possible advertising money can buy. Permalink<\/a> 3:46 PM – 11 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I wish someone could spot an error in the paper. Getting worried as presenting it in 3 weeks!https:\/\/twitter.com\/mikeandallie\/status\/763790101310738432 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:30 PM – 11 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@Trader_Moe Taleb has shown it takes only a tiny intransigent minority to rule larger culture: http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/minority.pdf <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/WatchSharia\/status\/763648926889177088 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:05 PM – 11 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK, now <3%. [correcting # of Protestants in France rose in past 2 decades] Permalink<\/a> 6:25 AM – 11 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb La trahison des clercs, vol 2. @Roman_Latkovic Permalink<\/a> 6:20 AM – 11 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Never imagined that, in 2016, people selfdefined on the “left” would be in favor of repression, cronyism, lobbies, elitism, &… Salafism ! Permalink<\/a> 4:23 AM – 11 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Overconfidence:”I lost money because of my excessive confidence”,Erasmus citing Theognis, Epicharmus @rorysutherlandpic.twitter.com\/c5vjFqVrRH<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:23 AM – 11 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/ most erudite men of all time https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Joseph_Justus_Scaliger <\/a>\u00a0 https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Isaac_Casaubon <\/a>\u00a0 https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Pierre_Bayle <\/a>\u00a0 4th is Cath https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Pierre_Daniel_Huet <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:30 AM – 11 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb FactTduJour: 3 out of the 4 most erudite Frenchmen in history: Casaubon, Scaliger, & Bayle were Protestant. Protestants today<1% of France. Permalink<\/a> 2:17 AM – 11 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Weightlifting is not for thin people. Overoptimized for weight, hence fragile! @JonathanWaxman1 Permalink<\/a> 2:13 AM – 11 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Psychological findings that are nonBS have to be #LindyEffect compatible http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/notebook.htm <\/a>\u00a0 @rorysutherlandpic.twitter.com\/tXNAqF4Tpe<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:58 AM – 11 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Saudi approach: hire a PR firm to “improve their image” rather than just evolve Like Monsanto Anyone interested in perception will go bust Permalink<\/a> 3:59 PM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I would stop actually later, at the French Moralists (La Rochefoucault…). See Elster for catalogue. @rorysutherland Permalink<\/a> 3:47 PM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The bet: if psychological finding is NOT in the classics <Montaigne, it is not real. Cog disson was in Aesop. #LindyEffect @rorysutherland Permalink<\/a> 3:43 PM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Notes on one of Elster’s books. He is the MAIN social science thinker; gets Lindy Effect @avermeule @biillybpic.twitter.com\/KMYP3kNCz8<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:16 PM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yemen, unlike Saudi Barbaria & Syrian “rebels”, does not have a PR firm in DC. Journos are told what is important.https:\/\/twitter.com\/leithfadel\/status\/763484556167118848 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:56 PM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Indeed, Eastern Aramaic used as “husband.” <= fertility! @alexshd @funtime_bobby @holland_tompic.twitter.com\/oPqOa1NYlb<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:46 PM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Baal like Adon (=>Adonis) interpreted as “Lord” in Canaanite. Baal Mammon, Baalat Gebala… “Baal shem tov” = Lord w\/ gd name @holland_tom Permalink<\/a> 2:35 PM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@CCavafy When they saw Patroklos dead \u2014so brave and strong, so young\u2014 the horses of Achilles began to weep. Permalink<\/a> 6:20 AM – 12 Dec 2014<\/p>\n

@CCavafy Ithaka gave you the marvelous journey. Without her you would not have set out. She has nothing left to give you now. Permalink<\/a> 5:30 AM – 6 Dec 2015<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The New Fourth Estate is Wikileaks. You don’t mess with the New Fourth Estate. The Old Fourth Estate, no problem.https:\/\/twitter.com\/wikileaks\/status\/763380671796678656 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:27 AM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The sicarii were into political assassination, not harming children. @iMetaldog @ayhanusa Permalink<\/a> 7:17 AM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The ones on Paganism-to-Christianity I REread is Robert Lane Fox https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/PAGANS-CHRISTIANS-Robin-Lane-Fox\/dp\/0394554957\/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1470834898&sr=1-3&keywords=robin+lane+fox <\/a>\u00a0 and Peter Brown’s https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/gp\/product\/0393958035\/ref=oh_aui_detailpage_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1 <\/a>\u00a0 @tcoe13 Permalink<\/a> 6:18 AM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Another account of early paganism-Christianity: https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Conflict-Religions-Early-Roman-Empire-ebook\/dp\/B007K0QKWK\/ref=la_B001K8IPNU_1_2?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1470828969&sr=1-2#nav-subnav <\/a>\u00a0 @tcoe13 Permalink<\/a> 4:38 AM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Derivations of how to make and update election forecasts without BS. Trying @WolframResearch new release Mathematicapic.twitter.com\/VSLtigZqz3<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:27 AM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I always block people for Sophistry. Simple allergy. Let me know when a devout Orthodox blows up a bus full of infidel children. @ayhanusa Permalink<\/a> 3:02 AM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/ Salafis preach in schools (incl. in Europe) that Shiites, atheists, pagans, classicists, (often) Christians\/Jews are infidel deviants. Permalink<\/a> 2:37 AM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is NOT racism to discriminate against people dressed according to a sect that discriminates against “infidels”, that is, you. Permalink<\/a> 2:29 AM – 10 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@lhfang Mike Morrell, CIA director who endorsed Hillary, is literally paid by a Hillary consulting firm for weapons makershttp:\/\/interc.pt\/1mrWtdg <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:50 AM – 7 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The “no arbitrage” equality forces the error on binary to ->0 which matchers Brier in discrete 1shots @DrCirillo @foxyforecaster @PTetlock Permalink<\/a> 1:26 PM – 9 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is the rigorous proof on way to make time estimates @DrCirillo @foxyforecaster @PTetlockpic.twitter.com\/rC3MgfGXDO<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:23 PM – 9 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Literalism: Few pagans believed in the myths. R L Fox see also Veyne (Skin in the game)pic.twitter.com\/HHnJcSkUH4<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:15 AM – 9 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@DrCirillo Experts (?) who rely on PIT estimates to forecast things they do not understand, and @nntaleb debunking them. Priceless and funny. Permalink<\/a> 9:50 AM – 8 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Imbecile, it has nothing to do with race but dressing like members of a violently intolerant subsect: Salafism @artaphernes Permalink<\/a> 3:18 AM – 9 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There is a .00001 correlation between what I said and this headline. Headline editors …https:\/\/twitter.com\/yahoofinance\/status\/762641774707937280 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:59 AM – 9 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If you lower false positives, you cause more risks (false negative). Sorry, pol correct pple, but risk is risk.https:\/\/twitter.com\/zerohedge\/status\/762925184688988160 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:42 AM – 9 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Paris is an energy neutral city.pic.twitter.com\/7Vnmnv6xR2<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:30 AM – 9 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (cont) Levantine: ana\/int\u00e9\/int\u00e9\/hu\/hi\/nihna\/into(n)\/into(n)\/hinn\u00e9\/hinn\u00e9. Note \u00e9 @candela3paz @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink<\/a> 12:51 AM – 9 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The basics: nun used in NW Semitic as in Levantine. @candela3paz @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlestickspic.twitter.com\/5of2FME8SO<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:45 AM – 9 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Levantine has the same verb forms as Aramaic http:\/\/arshama.classics.ox.ac.uk\/downloads\/Aramaic%20Skeleton%20Grammar%2004%20(Strong%20Verb).pdf <\/a>\u00a0 @candela3paz @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink<\/a> 12:26 AM – 9 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, Levantine is from older source than Arabic http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/notebook.htm <\/a>\u00a0 @manfromatlan @funtime_bobby @Flyfiddlesticks Permalink<\/a> 12:05 AM – 9 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Great news: Arabic writing is starting to vanish from Christian areas in Lebanon. A cop had “POLICE” on his shirt.pic.twitter.com\/mrYa5w0t3d<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:37 AM – 8 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You are NOT getting that your Brier is a Norm L2 distance minimizer. Stop tweeting for Baal’s sake. @PTetlock Permalink<\/a> 8:46 AM – 8 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Completely wrrrong. The norm L-2 distance is MINIMIZED by lowering estimator variance, Hence my method @PTetlockpic.twitter.com\/8kKzVn8pCX<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:50 AM – 8 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Simulations of election processes over 100 days, in Blue is How to Not Update proba a la @FiveThirtyEight. Clueless!pic.twitter.com\/zUfnNTnji6<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:24 AM – 8 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Paris: a school named after a high school dropout; rebellious poem on the wall. Did they notice the contradiction?pic.twitter.com\/dD2sRoHWLR<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:16 AM – 8 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Jet Lag: Proved that mean rises for ALL power laws when alpha stochastic, discussion w @financequant, @DrCirillopic.twitter.com\/M8dGwDmWLh<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:10 AM – 8 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (cont) More expamplespic.twitter.com\/LtUKpQrJ3V<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:34 AM – 8 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (cont) a tutorial on standard way to look at elections. Updating proportional to square root of time to elections.pic.twitter.com\/gbq1pqtkEJ<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:26 AM – 8 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To remove the verbose psychoBS, this is the rigorous way to deal with elections. @AHDidea @PTetlockpic.twitter.com\/0mXzIuw17l<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:23 AM – 8 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A volatile spot makes the binary\u21e9\u2191 .50 (4m expiration) to \u2193vol of binary (metaprobability) @Chris_arnade. Kapish?https:\/\/twitter.com\/Chris_arnade\/status\/762376801209425920 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:06 PM – 7 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The child of jet lag: how uncertainty makes violence worse, supplement to paper w @DrCirillo (with errors…)pic.twitter.com\/aPvl6Dvxcp<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:24 AM – 7 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4) Quick explanation of mechanism & why @FiveThirtyEight should stop confusing the public. (sorry for mistakes)pic.twitter.com\/LghTxDRN3b<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:12 PM – 6 Aug 2016<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb Pinker like charlatans talks to the press but no technical work.@sapinker is a BS artist. https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/26772813\/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say \u00a0pic.twitter.com\/50YrAt70kR Permalink 12:56 PM – 16 Aug 2016 @nntaleb Pinker has about every attribute of the charlatan. Nothing short of a charlatan. https:\/\/www.academia.edu\/26772813\/The_Decline_of_Violent_Conflicts_What_Do_The_Data_Really_Say \u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/sapinker\/status\/765546814384799744 \u00a0 Permalink 12:51 PM – 16 Aug 2016 @nntaleb 2\/ Steady “Arabization” of Syria, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1077,1323,1321,1320,1322,1014,657,1086],"class_list":["post-8445","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-charlatans","tag-elections","tag-erdogan","tag-godel-popper","tag-mathematica","tag-pinker","tag-stewart-brand","tag-syria"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8445","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8445"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8445\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8447,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8445\/revisions\/8447"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8445"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8445"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8445"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}