{"id":8440,"date":"2016-08-06T14:55:04","date_gmt":"2016-08-06T21:55:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8440"},"modified":"2016-08-06T14:55:04","modified_gmt":"2016-08-06T21:55:04","slug":"fivethirtyeight-salafis-jihadists-amioun-piketty-averroes-kadisha-valley-the-right-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2016\/08\/fivethirtyeight-salafis-jihadists-amioun-piketty-averroes-kadisha-valley-the-right-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"@FiveThirtyEight, Salafis Jihadists, Amioun, Piketty, Averroes, Kadisha Valley, The Right | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb Bingo! Option traders get it! When probabilities are stochastic, they become ~.50. And they don’t move fast!https:\/\/twitter.com\/VlanciPictures\/status\/762036480466415617 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:25 PM – 6 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3) More technically, when the variance of the probability is v. high it converges to 50%. Kapish? (metaprobability). Permalink<\/a> 2:13 PM – 6 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/ So @FiveThirtyEight is showing us a textbook case on how to be totally *clueless* about probability yet make a business in it. Permalink<\/a> 2:11 PM – 6 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1\/@FiveThirtyEight : 55% “probability” for Trump then 20% 10 d later, not realizing their “probability” is too stochastic to be probability. Permalink<\/a> 2:09 PM – 6 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Cont “This thing we call religion” https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10154031983368375 <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/kvFnQKeYdd<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:29 PM – 6 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (To hide truth is to hide gold) la v\u00e9rit\u00e9 est cachee au fond du puits \u03a3\u03b9\u03b3\u03ac\u03bd \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03b1\u03bb\u03ae\u03b8\u03b5\u03b9\u03b1\u03bd \u03c7\u03c1\u03c5\u03c3\u03cc\u03bd \u03b5\u03c3\u03c4\u03b9 \u03b8\u03ac\u03c0\u03c4\u03b5\u03b9\u03bdhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/zerohedge\/status\/761981751656849408 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:57 AM – 6 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bon on recommence: Le grand ne rappetisse pas Le petit n’aggrandit pas Permalink<\/a> 1:05 AM – 6 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Infallible way to catch Salafis Jihadists at a checkpoint: ask them to crack a joke.Salafis, by definition, are devoid of any sense of humor Permalink<\/a> 11:51 PM – 5 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In French it works well @ArmandDAngour : Le grand ne rappetit pas Le petit n’aggrandit pas Permalink<\/a> 3:26 PM – 5 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The small will never make you feel great; the great will never make you fee small. ( \u0627\u0644\u0632\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u0643\u0628\u064c\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u0632\u063a\u064c\u0631) Better translation Permalink<\/a> 3:09 PM – 5 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The small can’t see greatness; the great doesn’t know smallness. ( \u0627\u0644\u0632\u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u0643\u0628\u064c\u0631 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0627 \u0628\u0632\u063a\u064c\u0631)https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/761679663001468929 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:02 PM – 5 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ez z’3ir ma bi kabber w l’kbir ma mi za’3’3er. Permalink<\/a> 2:45 PM – 5 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To assume that academic economists are “experts” on anything requires total empirical blindness. @yoramdw @JustinWolfers Permalink<\/a> 8:28 AM – 5 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (Skin in the Game) Permalink<\/a> 8:23 AM – 5 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This IYI (Intellectual yet Idiot) doesn’t realize absence of academic economists is a very positive thing.#realworldhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/JustinWolfers\/status\/761536433756798976 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:22 AM – 5 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A pilgrimage to my great-gr-gr-gr-gr-grandfather’s house in Amiounpic.twitter.com\/sD9XZkOuYD<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:01 AM – 5 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Proper statistical causation: Take a cohort of readers & PREVENT some randomly selected from reading. Kapish? @amsterdamtrader @Silva Permalink<\/a> 5:36 AM – 5 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Rohan, the NYT idiots (IYI) got it backward. Those who live longer necessarily have a longer functioning intellectual\/visual ability @Silva Permalink<\/a> 5:15 AM – 5 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In distributed environments: Militias >>armies, commandos >>tanks Groups(Hayekian) >>Soviet & farmers >> Monsanto!https:\/\/twitter.com\/MKM_Abdul\/status\/761409231304077312 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:10 AM – 5 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb As to the Gini, fugedaboudit. https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/GINI-1.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 @NessimAitKacimi Permalink<\/a> 3:03 PM – 4 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Piketty more than challenged: in addition his measure of inequality is flawed @NessimAitKacimipic.twitter.com\/Kw2yuN09CH<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:55 PM – 4 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The problem w Mainstream Media: unlike book authors, journos are mostly worried about the opinions of other journos, not those of readers. Permalink<\/a> 2:20 AM – 4 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@G_Exercitus How can @zerohedge be more professional than MSM? @joshua_landis @MaxAbrahms @nntalebhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/zerohedge\/status\/761079273704665089 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:03 AM – 4 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Factdujour: Averroes (IbnRushd) was unpublished in Arabic bef 1859, while 100s of eds in Latin! [The grrrreat Renan]pic.twitter.com\/MVyHxN1hXB<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:37 PM – 3 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb IYI don’t get techn\u00e9-epistem\u00e9: scientist making statements abt practical matters is not like a plumber on plumbing.https:\/\/twitter.com\/AcademicsSay\/status\/760969384106029057 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:46 PM – 3 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mala grammatica non vitiat chartam @dottorpax Permalink<\/a> 3:37 PM – 3 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If I ran for office, I’d avoid public statements that don’t entail personal risks in making them. Permalink<\/a> 3:04 PM – 3 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Max knows his stuff.https:\/\/twitter.com\/maxabrahms\/status\/760850229029539840 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:19 AM – 3 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Kadisha Valley near Ehden, 19 km from Amioun (and 20 degrees F cooler).pic.twitter.com\/i99s0M4PaC<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:05 AM – 3 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We don’t know what we talk about when we say “Religion”. Salafis (& most atheists) take religion literally.pic.twitter.com\/I1ZhUT3ye6<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:26 AM – 2 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Indians left to starve in Saudi Barbaria.https:\/\/twitter.com\/assaadrazzouk\/status\/760130259119443968 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:26 AM – 1 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) So have some imagination and do not rule out a two-way mess in Europe.https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/760139675713634304 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:48 AM – 1 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb As a child,I never imagined that Sunni girls wd trade miniskirts for hijab & boys would blow themselves up to get on GoogleNews. #BlackSwan Permalink<\/a> 8:46 AM – 1 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@lukasnaugle “You can’t have 1) voting rights, 2) social media, and 3) patronizing elite at once…” @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 5:22 AM – 1 Aug 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My prediction, particularly for Europe. Eventually, violence never stays 1-way. (@zerohedge )pic.twitter.com\/ELbVMmQrIb<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:36 PM – 31 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Finally, results for the preasymptotics of semi-fat tailed & fat tailed distributions for @DrCirillo’s conferencepic.twitter.com\/b7POA4952o<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:39 PM – 31 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Enough mass to do a …coup in Germany?https:\/\/twitter.com\/MilenaRodban\/status\/759879379220475904 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:48 PM – 31 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@joshua_landis As the Saudis Covered Up Abuses in Yemen, America Stood Byhttp:\/\/www.politico.com\/magazine\/story\/2016\/07\/saudi-arabia-yemen-russia-syria-foreign-policy-united-nations-blackmail-214124 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:58 PM – 31 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Localismhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/759779327428923392 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:11 PM – 31 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@ideallyspace @nntalebpic.twitter.com\/ISqpg2kgN6<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:43 AM – 31 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Right wants one $ one vote. The IYI (intellectual yet idiot) Left wants one degree one vote. The rest of us want one person one vote. Permalink<\/a> 1:46 PM – 30 Jul 2016<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb Bingo! Option traders get it! When probabilities are stochastic, they become ~.50. And they don’t move fast!https:\/\/twitter.com\/VlanciPictures\/status\/762036480466415617 \u00a0 Permalink 2:25 PM – 6 Aug 2016 @nntaleb 3) More technically, when the variance of the probability is v. high it converges to 50%. Kapish? (metaprobability). Permalink 2:13 PM – 6 Aug 2016 @nntaleb 2\/ So […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1315,306,1317,1318,904,1316,1319],"class_list":["post-8440","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-fivethirtyeight","tag-amioun","tag-averroes","tag-kadisha-valley","tag-piketty","tag-salafis-jihadists","tag-the-right"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8440","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8440"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8440\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8443,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8440\/revisions\/8443"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}