{"id":8409,"date":"2016-07-01T17:15:06","date_gmt":"2016-07-02T00:15:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8409"},"modified":"2016-07-01T20:09:35","modified_gmt":"2016-07-02T03:09:35","slug":"gmos-brexit-brussels-elite-antifragile-overregulation-syria-nonstable-power-laws-kasperov-life-expectancy-yougov","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2016\/07\/gmos-brexit-brussels-elite-antifragile-overregulation-syria-nonstable-power-laws-kasperov-life-expectancy-yougov\/","title":{"rendered":"GMOs, Brexit, Brussels Elite, ANTIFRAGILE, Overregulation, Syria, NonStable Power Laws, Kasperov, Life Expectancy, YouGov, IYI | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb The average signatory’s Nobel y: 1997. Av. age at prize:~62. These are in their 80s, many 30-50y behind cutting edgehttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/748939971583741955 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:33 PM – 1 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@food_democracy Breaking Let Freedom Ring! Vermont’s 1st in the Nation GMO Labeling bill has just gone into effect! Thanks Vermont!pic.twitter.com\/KFnMWo1u1i<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:04 PM – 30 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Syrian rebels call themselves Mujaheddin. Stop the BS, call them by what they are. And learn Arabic.https:\/\/twitter.com\/EHSANI22\/status\/748988061426544640 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:55 PM – 1 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not always. Only if economist\/journo AND BS vendor like @Noahpinionhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/rneppalli\/status\/748971060641533953 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:20 PM – 1 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@brunoboni Nero di seppia con bottarga #nerodiseppia @nntalebpic.twitter.com\/RLkRCqMiKw<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:28 AM – 1 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 107 Nobel winners ag Golden Rice, aged pple who did their work before complexity theory… https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153946452908375 <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/6Ic2z7nJg2<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:02 AM – 1 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It was not Elinor Ostrom who said “give us our fishing waters back”;it was Nigel Farrage. Time for bureaucrats to learn complexity\/localism Permalink<\/a> 10:20 AM – 1 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Philip as the UberStatistician & a fierless leader you should join us in an expanded project on GMOs http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html <\/a>\u00a0 @philipbstark Permalink<\/a> 9:42 AM – 1 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I will never discuss a friend in public no matter the situation. Only in private. Even with ex- friends @philipbstark Permalink<\/a> 8:43 AM – 1 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The EU, something built 1950s-style, without understanding of complex systems.http:\/\/www.express.co.uk\/news\/politics\/685286\/EU-referendum-Brexit-Black-Swan-Nassim-Taleb-Brussels-elite?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+daily-express-news-showbiz+%28Daily+Express+%3A%3A+News+%2F+Showbiz+Feed%29 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:45 AM – 1 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Find the inconsistency, or how “average” probability isn’t a robust construct. [Quiz abt empty suit @JustinWolfers]pic.twitter.com\/dd2dYsJu4Y<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:09 AM – 1 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Noboby noticed: only “Nobel” of 107 who “knows” abt risk is Robert Merton who blew up w\/ LTCM “1 in trillion” risk.https:\/\/twitter.com\/BioSRP\/status\/748858953937846273 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:01 AM – 1 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Announcement: RWRI-3 Real World Risk fall workshop date has been changed to Oct 3-7 [We found great quarters in NYC] http:\/\/realworldrisk.com <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:56 AM – 1 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@MarcosCarreira @nntaleb Jensen\u2019s inequality and sensitivity to variance in plantshttps:\/\/twitter.com\/CurrentBiology\/status\/748604696739340288 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:05 AM – 1 Jul 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thought they were desperate to add a nobel in literature but…they added Robert Merton, Mr LTCM. Guaranteed Blowup!https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/748525227852849153 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:53 PM – 30 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Donald Trump via trial and error looking for what people want. Know your customer rule.http:\/\/cnb.cx\/29bzpMM <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:11 PM – 30 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Voters tired of an elite that can’t find coconuts on Coconut Islandhttp:\/\/video.cnbc.com\/gallery\/?video=3000530650 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:06 PM – 30 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Indeed: variance helps them! @Chris_arnade Permalink<\/a> 2:02 PM – 30 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Alternative Test: what’s is the probability that @JustinWolfers a representayive member of the IYI class deadlifts? Permalink<\/a> 8:39 AM – 30 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The only empirical association between Risk\/Safety & Nobel Prize is LTCM. Try again, hire a more informed PR firm.https:\/\/twitter.com\/MichaelRStrain\/status\/748319864595439616 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:34 AM – 30 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Turned out Pinker’s words & references do not match. Asking him for backup, not words. 800 page thesis … no backuppic.twitter.com\/kKRb0U6fwk<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:11 AM – 30 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Impressive: saw that Silver Rule (#Skininthegame) \u21d4decision-making under incompleteness. He is MD &Deadlifts>600lbs!https:\/\/twitter.com\/MDiPaolaMD\/status\/748493696052629504 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:53 AM – 30 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Nassim Taleb Slams The World’s “Intellectual-Yet-Idiot” Class | Zero Hedge http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-06-26\/nassim-taleb-slams-worlds-intellectual-yet-idiot-class <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:39 AM – 30 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3 millennia of *wisdom=action under incomplete information* from King Solomon to Popper to Simon undid by that idiothttps:\/\/twitter.com\/neiltyson\/status\/748157273789300736 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:57 AM – 30 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Finally completed my ANTIFRAGILE application to Medicine. https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/medicine.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:52 AM – 30 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Phil forgot 1 Nobel prize for literature. https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/748471063521169408 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:51 AM – 30 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@hamlet911 If you can piss off econs, IYIs, academia and most of the twitterverse – all at the same time, you are pretty much right. Kudos @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 6:37 PM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “If a tractor used on a farm has a windshield, its wipers must have a speed of 25 cycles per minute.” Brussels…pic.twitter.com\/a8Ywc63eka<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:49 PM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The envious will perceive you as always arrogant.https:\/\/twitter.com\/ban_kanj\/status\/748328386343354368 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:34 PM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Overregulation by EU:length of a banana, volume per toilet flush, speed of agricultural tractor’s windshield wipers https:\/\/www.contribuables.org\/2014\/05\/europe-trop-de-normes-pas-assez-de-liberte\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:28 PM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It takes 16 times longer to incorporate and run a bizness in Milan than Londra @Twitpiero Permalink<\/a> 2:21 PM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Move a German to Paris or a French person to Frkfrt. No way. Both would move to LDN.https:\/\/twitter.com\/fartelengelbert\/status\/748252528685518848 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:34 PM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Another, #NonfakeRationalia, w\/no BS vendors like Tyson: based on orthodox statistics & presence-absence of evidencehttps:\/\/twitter.com\/neiltyson\/status\/748157273789300736 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:18 PM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb From my experience, London is attractive for banks as it has labor laws similar to US\/pool of talent. Paris and Frankfurt tried & failed. Permalink<\/a> 1:14 PM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Economist @JustinWolfers strikes me as the type w\/no math, no erudition & no skin-in-the game. Does he deadlift? Permalink<\/a> 12:11 PM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@mikeharrisNY @nntaleb @AdroitInvestor @econbuttonwood Chart updated. Woa.#brexit looks like a non-event. Thanks prof.pic.twitter.com\/3tA9d4wOyK<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:25 AM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb #skininthegame: Unless one has P\/L it is hard to assess the “significance” of a move. Journos\/Tawkers can’t get it!https:\/\/twitter.com\/mikeharrisNY\/status\/748203429843996673 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:19 AM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb GBP\/USD 1year deviation is within significance band: nothing reflects such “gravity” of an event. Kapish? @AdroitInvestor @econbuttonwood Permalink<\/a> 10:13 AM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb UK stocks up from #Brexit vote. Ignore any word written by a journo except for street crime reporters.pic.twitter.com\/GO55oGidAM<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:53 AM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb From reading his work, Mr Wolfers has *some* challenges with probability theory. More, later. @jimmyybill @JustinWolfers Permalink<\/a> 7:35 AM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A more advanced class is based on my book SILENT RISK and the papers here http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/FatTails.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:58 AM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb BTW this is my syllabus for the introductory class (7 lectures) https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/Lecture%20Syllabus.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:53 AM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My first lecture: this is the clueless way to look at data. Histograms don’t give information for fattails.https:\/\/twitter.com\/JustinWolfers\/status\/747839522965098496 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:37 AM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, the Pound move was not a Black Swan, & not a statistical outlier.pic.twitter.com\/7mwey4GGRi<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:17 AM – 29 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Simplicity and skin in the game: Those who tawk propose more complicated models than those who do. http:\/\/www.nasdaq.com\/article\/nassim-taleb-on-simplicity-and-skin-in-the-game-cm642323 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:20 PM – 28 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Minority rule in action http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/minority.pdf <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/NonGMOProject\/status\/747898686852608001 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:06 PM – 28 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb European Union, definition: Something designed by someone who doesn’t understand complex systems. Permalink<\/a> 9:10 AM – 28 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@GMWatch URGENT: Act Now to Save #GMO Labeling, Before It’s Too Late! https:\/\/action.organicconsumers.org\/o\/50865\/p\/dia\/action3\/common\/public\/?action_KEY=18302&track=moFRN&tag=FRN#sthash.aPx1sX5D.dpuf <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/QtRvlAPqcB<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:59 AM – 28 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Does not deadlift. (@MDiPaolaMD)https:\/\/twitter.com\/DavidBCollum\/status\/747616032928464900 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:55 AM – 28 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@BogeJan @nntaleb @yaneerbaryam Balkanisation is failed centralization. Helvetization is successful decentralization Permalink<\/a> 7:07 AM – 28 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb People say “Balkanization”, why not”Helvetization”? @yaneerbaryam has ideas for Syria http:\/\/necsi.edu\/research\/social\/peace_PLoS_f.pdf <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/aNatureTech\/status\/747790776353067010 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:59 AM – 28 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Stop bloodshe! Only solution for Syria is partition. Fences make better neighbors. Or strong decentralization.https:\/\/twitter.com\/bitgit\/status\/747781027502915584 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:22 AM – 28 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb An illustration of the ludic fallacy: https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ludic_fallacy <\/a>\u00a0 (People who derive reputation\/authority from games…)pic.twitter.com\/CvnuQGm4qd<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:11 AM – 28 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Before theorizing abt Assad, have skin in the game & live w\/rebels. Those you support would behead you @Kasparov63http:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-middle-east-36637378 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:51 AM – 28 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I have to *write* the paper! @MAvellaneda55 Permalink<\/a> 3:48 PM – 27 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Grandmaster Marco Avellaneda @MAvellaneda55 is giving a flash talk in 15 min. He was last seen in Mexico. Permalink<\/a> 3:05 PM – 27 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@KeaneBhatt Protesters of US ‘inaction’ in Syria should re-read two paragraphs, written in present-tense http:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2016\/06\/27\/world\/middleeast\/cia-arms-for-syrian-rebels-supplied-black-market-officials-say.html <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/D7YVMYKCCW<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:44 PM – 27 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I have seen the two @silva and @stevehiltonx tease one another: Interesting pair.http:\/\/www.standard.co.uk\/lifestyle\/london-life\/if-rohan-silva-can-hug-brexit-campaigner-steve-hilton-theres-hope-for-us-all-a3281781.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:03 PM – 27 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb New Version of today’s flash talk: Behavior of Sums of NonStable Power Laws. Convergence < Sqrt[log(log(n))) https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/BBGJune2016.pptx.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:32 AM – 27 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You should go live in Lybia when making comments like these. I live 20 m from Syria & don’t need Black-Swan blind neocons BS @Kasparov63 Permalink<\/a> 8:14 AM – 27 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Even more bullshit. In real life, as in chess, a move has consequence and you study consequences before moving. Kapish? @Kasparov63 Permalink<\/a> 8:07 AM – 27 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You are spouting neocon Bullshit, theorizing from afar. I was not happy with Gadafi\/Saddam, but I am less happy with AlQaeda @Kasparov63 Permalink<\/a> 8:03 AM – 27 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You want to turn Syria (hence Lebanon) into Iraq\/Lybia just to spite Putin? Kill minorities for “geopolitical” BS?https:\/\/twitter.com\/Kasparov63\/status\/747440635381092353 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:48 AM – 27 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Presenting a flash talk tonite: Behavior of Sum of NonStable Power Laws http:\/\/go.bloomberg.com\/promo\/invite\/bloomberg-quant-seminar-series-5\/ <\/a>\u00a0 My paper: https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/BBGJune2016.pptx.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:23 AM – 27 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@vtrighttoknow Thank you @SenSanders. We need more leaders like you!https:\/\/twitter.com\/CFSTrueFood\/status\/746421448340811776 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:26 PM – 24 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A GOLDEN RULE in ETHICS Take a moment to figure out whether you’d rather be praiseworthy but not praised, or praised but not praiseworthy. Permalink<\/a> 10:57 AM – 26 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@GadSaad There you go. NNT forgot to mention that the Leave voters will all “xenophobic, hateful, illiterate racists.”https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/747116746843295744 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:20 AM – 26 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb When people vote the way of the IYI elite, it is “democracy”. Otherwise it is misguided, irrational, swayed by populism & lack of education. Permalink<\/a> 10:18 AM – 26 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb These imbeciles pathologizing people who did not vote the way the IYI (Intellectual-Yet-Idiots) elite wants them to. https:\/\/twitter.com\/healthpsycenter\/status\/747100256001630208 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:28 AM – 26 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Finance based medicinehttps:\/\/twitter.com\/HeatherM211\/status\/745562147715874816 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:33 AM – 26 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The IYI class: Intellectual-Yet-Idiot Doesn’t deadlift & is scared that #Brexit started a revolution by the unwashedpic.twitter.com\/26YykU2kx0<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:35 PM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Intellectual Yet Idiot; Semierudite Bureaucrat;Normative;Pathologizes others for doing things he doesn’t understand.https:\/\/twitter.com\/mapale77\/status\/746865636211556352 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:46 PM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 4 y ago, I resolved to do math >90m\/day. I stuck to it, diligently, except for Jun 24, 2016 w\/news of stage 1 of anti-IYI revolution #Brexit Permalink<\/a> 5:37 PM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@lukasnaugle “Friendship that ends was never one; there was at least one sucker in it.” @nntalebpic.twitter.com\/uVZVA6bs1h<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:28 PM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To understand conditional life expect, see Social Security Admin: total expect increases with age. #rigorisneeded https:\/\/www.ssa.gov\/oact\/STATS\/table4c6.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:09 PM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Also YouGov’s numbers about the youth mean turnout bias: the main info is youth don’t care.https:\/\/twitter.com\/mylifemysay\/status\/746740337331343360 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:52 AM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Where the term “Intellectual Yet Imbecile” is born to describe a journo-bureaucrat – read a lot but not enough. https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153932393103375 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:35 AM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In Antifragile: problem of some IYT intellectual-yet-imbecile in Brussels trying to make measures”rational” #Brexitpic.twitter.com\/UUKnslcl6T<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:04 AM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@republicofmath My take on @nntaleb: just because we have skewed data doesn’t mean we should engage in skewed thinkingpic.twitter.com\/ZzpQ0WnIFA<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:34 AM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Math: E[X|X>K2] >=E[X|X>K1] for all K2>K1 @MAvellaneda55 Permalink<\/a> 8:18 AM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Under ANY unimodal distribution, life expectancy increases BY MORE than 1 year for every surviving year. @MAvellaneda55 @EloyGamaS Permalink<\/a> 8:13 AM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If uncond. life expectancy is 80 & you are already 80, your life expectancy is ~+9 y. If you are 100, it is ~+2y @MAvellaneda55 @EloyGamaS Permalink<\/a> 8:11 AM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Life expectancy (remaining years to live) increases with age. @EloyGamaS @MAvellaneda55 Permalink<\/a> 8:05 AM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/2 simply if your life expectancy is 89 and you are 95, they thing you have -7 years to go! YouGov is ridiculously incompetent. Permalink<\/a> 8:04 AM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb BSduJour: YouGov is incompetent in polling & missed Brexit by 6 pts; here:confused life expectancy w\/conditional exphttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tancredipalmeri\/status\/746115846624403457 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:03 AM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Antikirilganlik! G\u00fczel bir s\u00fcrpriz T\u00fcrk\u00e7e bulmak i\u00e7in. Ve g\u00fczel bir yol T\u00fcrk\u00e7e kelimeleri \u00f6\u011frenmek i\u00e7in.pic.twitter.com\/YbU64GYXN3<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:54 AM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Heuristic from #RWRI: have cash in bills on you or in in a stash next to you.https:\/\/twitter.com\/dermot_lyons\/status\/746519787694489600 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:06 AM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I asked: “Who are your natural partners, people from India or those from Poland?” Brexit is giving us an answer.https:\/\/twitter.com\/rorysutherland\/status\/746665738014986240 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:54 AM – 25 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb People listen to “intellectual class” abt Brexit but for 70 y they’ve been wrong on anything: Stalinism, Maoism, Freudianism,Urban planning Permalink<\/a> 11:54 AM – 24 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb People are brainwashed to think that Levantine derives from Arabic. Some influence, that’s all. http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/notebook.htm <\/a>\u00a0 @alielyassir Permalink<\/a> 11:19 AM – 24 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb At the lunch table #riskmathics in Mexico City, 4\/9 persons were of Lebanese origin. Permalink<\/a> 8:49 AM – 24 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In one word: pollers are incompetent -and those who pay attention even more so. It is a bias-variance problem.https:\/\/twitter.com\/pauld1981\/status\/746366393226977284 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:44 AM – 24 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It seems impossible for people to talk about markets w\/o BS unless one is a trader\/investor, with #skininthegame .https:\/\/twitter.com\/harris4491\/status\/746350655418281984 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:37 AM – 24 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb So the GBP is about were it was in February. Too many people talk about markets …pic.twitter.com\/8OS505NhA3<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:28 AM – 24 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@SenSanders I am going to do everything I can to defeat this GMO labeling legislation, which preempts Vermont’s law.http:\/\/1.usa.gov\/28QN4pQ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:17 PM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb From 2012; NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB: ‘The European Union Is A Horrible, Stupid Project’http:\/\/read.bi\/RiSRHT <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:26 AM – 24 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Today, the United States have acquired 4 new shadow states: England, London (sic), Wales, and possibly Scotland. Permalink<\/a> 4:20 AM – 24 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Brookings needs to be… diminished, purged, and debullshitvendorified @MaxAbrahms Permalink<\/a> 9:58 PM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Whatever legal disclaimer: I own gold in some forms. Permalink<\/a> 9:56 PM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Gold! In any form. Permalink<\/a> 9:52 PM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Brexit results after a lot of Mexican wine.pic.twitter.com\/l4GA2UsWYv<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:10 PM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Voila the problem on airplane solved by the master in higher dimensions!https:\/\/twitter.com\/MAvellaneda55\/status\/745963733093015552 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:42 PM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@ProbFact “Modernity corresponds to the systematic extraction of humans from their randomness-laden ecology.” — @nntaleb http:\/\/bit.ly\/28UC0ea <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:45 AM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb BTW I am long some GBP so I can talk about markets tonite to satistfy #Skininthegame @will_moriarty Permalink<\/a> 9:36 AM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Does it include control by Norwegian universities that *during the same period* did not take a cut? #causalityishardhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/MaxCRoser\/status\/739852044010434560 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:34 AM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In Mexico,debate w\/Rob Engel & Ed Altman on Brexit effects.There no scheduled volatility, Prices SCORN ideas\/clich\u00e9spic.twitter.com\/NnW7YRWYcK<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:54 AM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@ScottAdamsSays @AG2Pearl @fireclan55 If you understood business, you’d know counting the failures is a fool’s analysis. I have about 30, and I’m rich. Permalink<\/a> 6:35 AM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Also note that the semi-intellectual empty suits tend to engage in entry-level scientism with promotion of GMOshttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/715862574059937793 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:12 AM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You are not getting expert pbm. Grandmother’s jdgmnt doesn’t mean she is a Dr, only how to trust a doctor and for what gravity. @trombosit Permalink<\/a> 5:04 AM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bjorn Lomborg is by any metric a charlatan. The fact that bureaucrats don’t like him doesn’t make him scientific. @NickdeCusa Permalink<\/a> 4:26 AM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Reminder: the crowds are now rebelling against empty suits & “intellectuals” https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153658794008375 <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/wdCTVcfNWT<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:20 AM – 23 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@MAvellaneda55 Made it to Mexico with @nntaleb discussing probability #brexit & #mathematics. On to #riskmathics conference!pic.twitter.com\/ZxZz5pDUIe<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:21 PM – 22 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes! If th ~ Uniform[0,Pi], Tan[th]~ Cauchy & if radius from center random, still Cauchy as Sum of Cauchy = Cauchy @asknbid @MAvellaneda55 Permalink<\/a> 10:41 AM – 22 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Quiz given by @MAvellaneda55. A drunk person throws balls randomly in all directions. What is the proba distrib of the distance betw balls? Permalink<\/a> 10:25 AM – 22 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Betting odds are demonstrably similar to option implied probabilities, except unhedgeable (no underlying).https:\/\/twitter.com\/MAvellaneda55\/status\/745659184956465152 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:53 AM – 22 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb On plane Prof Marco @MAvellaneda55 agrees with derivations showing betting 1\/x has tail. https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/LongShot.nb.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:42 AM – 22 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@lukasnaugle “If you know, in the morning, what your day looks like with any precision, you are a little bit dead…” @nntalebpic.twitter.com\/xTPzcjImNf<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:28 PM – 21 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Marco my math mentor\/th advisor for 22.5 years adjusting probabilities for Dutch Book effect. Neat!https:\/\/twitter.com\/mavellaneda55\/status\/745591147251240960 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:19 AM – 22 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/2 In other words Egyptian scribes had been using Semitic languages, incl Aramaic as lingua franca for 2000 years before the Arab invasion. Permalink<\/a> 4:46 AM – 22 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Aramaic du jour: Egyptian use of Semitic lang. predates the Achaemenid inv, The Amarna letters were in Akkadian.( Aramaic in Egypt dialect.) Permalink<\/a> 4:45 AM – 22 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I can’t see any backing to the idea: Brexit => Economy will tank It’s by the same economists who wouldn’t find sand in Saudi Arabia. Permalink<\/a> 2:24 PM – 21 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Where I explain that “large” projects rarely start as “large” projects, but fractally grown https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153701042473375 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:23 AM – 21 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Voila! Organic funding is the way: VCs are about cosmetic businesses to sell to the greater fool.https:\/\/twitter.com\/stephenfleming\/status\/745225288720711681 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:03 AM – 21 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A general question. Is is true that tears in rotator cuff “never” fully self repair? Lit is not clear on that; @cdipaola62 @DataScienceDork Permalink<\/a> 3:13 PM – 20 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@StopponiMario @nntaleb in Italy the change is happening bottom-up as you said, cities independent from central gov as Renaissancepic.twitter.com\/d7ihNEAvBL<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:53 PM – 20 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For comments, my first scientific article in Medicine; on Convex responses and Antifragility. Almost done. https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/medicine.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:21 PM – 20 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Birth of superstate: Frederick Forsyth on how UNELECTED Brussels bureaucrats SEIZED powerhttp:\/\/shr.gs\/GNd7LlN <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:16 PM – 20 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, I do not lecture in Saudi Arabia, & those lecturing there are academics-for-purchase.pic.twitter.com\/7IV46YGVFx<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:20 AM – 20 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is easy to find out the Monsanto shills: people who defend BOTH glyphosate and GMOs & attack glysphokeptics.https:\/\/twitter.com\/philipbstark\/status\/744858609671090177 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:47 AM – 20 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Read the NYTimes after long time (jetlag): can detect that newsmedia are afraid of their readers. When I write I don’t care abt readers. Permalink<\/a> 4:07 AM – 20 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Byzantine mass in a small church in my ancestral village: Greco-Arabic @byzantinepowerpic.twitter.com\/BYRNQ0lqQz<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:59 AM – 20 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Our paper on violence translated for nonstatisticians http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/violencenobelsymposium.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 @QuarrelAU Permalink<\/a> 8:25 AM – 19 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Nobel Symposium: 3 full days. We stopped discussing Pinker’s thesis as dismissed after 1st session.pic.twitter.com\/03m9mUyNQq<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:06 AM – 19 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Aramaic root for Levantine du jour: Shl7 \u0634\u0644\u062d comes from SHLH: undress, now fleece (-> Tshli7, Shla7 tyebak…)pic.twitter.com\/zsICwu92WQ<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:05 AM – 19 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Trying to explain the Mediterranean temperament to Slavs: Meds know how to have fun without necessarily getting drunk. Permalink<\/a> 11:33 AM – 18 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In their private lives, some people seek union, others seek frequent intersection. Permalink<\/a> 4:54 AM – 18 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Here it is https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1603.07532.pdf <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/DataScienceDork\/status\/743991476594610176 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:28 AM – 18 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb .@PeterCorless @EHSANI22 We have evidence that many of these civilians were killed by Islamists, pictures financed by Saudi PR firms. Permalink<\/a> 8:18 AM – 17 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@EHSANI22 When you read think tankers arguing for removing Assad by force or bombing syria, ask them who funds their operations and salaries. Permalink<\/a> 7:33 AM – 17 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The only way one can measure intertemporal inequality is within SAME cohort. Brookings ignorant BSvendors.https:\/\/twitter.com\/EconTalker\/status\/743476144813522944 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:23 AM – 16 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb History is periods of peace punctuated by war rather than periods of war puctuated by peace. (Bergen Symposium) Permalink<\/a> 5:58 AM – 16 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Wrong! P of .05 values don’t work… https:\/\/arxiv.org\/pdf\/1603.07532.pdf <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/AcademicsSay\/status\/743413767904559104 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:22 AM – 16 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Western Norway: mountainous, craggy, pristine, like Switzerland without the Swiss. Presenting paper on violence.pic.twitter.com\/qMJiLB8AVN<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:23 PM – 15 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Trump doesn’t put his name on steaks for the money, rather for the ego. @AdamB1438 @John_Hempton @realmarkcuban Permalink<\/a> 7:17 AM – 15 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Area for the exception. Thrilling to visualize inequalities in higher dimensions. @alxpr1c3 @CutTheKnotMathpic.twitter.com\/gCgvAVZ0mk<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:16 AM – 15 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/ Talking class paternalists don’t get it: Only way to hurt Trump is to show him crying while reading Anna Kareninahttps:\/\/twitter.com\/naomiaklein\/status\/742746821718618112 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:06 AM – 15 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Comments like these by the “intellectual class” will get TheDonaldo elected.https:\/\/twitter.com\/naomiaklein\/status\/742746821718618112 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:27 PM – 14 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb How many years of consecutive “peace” in a random Poisson process? Methodology. @DrCirillopic.twitter.com\/jxY77d4ost<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:42 PM – 14 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Finalmente, 4 years after antifragile, the discourse is improving!https:\/\/twitter.com\/emanuelderman\/status\/742723822378438656 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:11 PM – 14 Jun 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Most humans either harm or are harmed by words. The rest is a small minority. Permalink<\/a> 12:05 PM – 14 Jun 2016<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb The average signatory’s Nobel y: 1997. Av. age at prize:~62. These are in their 80s, many 30-50y behind cutting edgehttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/748939971583741955 \u00a0 Permalink 3:33 PM – 1 Jul 2016 @food_democracy Breaking Let Freedom Ring! Vermont’s 1st in the Nation GMO Labeling bill has just gone into effect! Thanks Vermont!pic.twitter.com\/KFnMWo1u1i Permalink 9:04 PM – 30 Jun […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1070,1289,1294,1292,568,1291,1290,1086,1293],"class_list":["post-8409","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-antifragile","tag-brussels-elite","tag-iyi","tag-kasperov","tag-life-expectancy","tag-nonstable-power-laws","tag-overregulation","tag-syria","tag-yougov"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8409","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8409"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8409\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8420,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8409\/revisions\/8420"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8409"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8409"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8409"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}