{"id":8387,"date":"2016-05-12T22:44:58","date_gmt":"2016-05-13T05:44:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8387"},"modified":"2016-05-12T22:44:58","modified_gmt":"2016-05-13T05:44:58","slug":"smear-artists-cauchy-salt-zipf-plot-long-shot-bias-random-matrices-diderot-zerohedge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2016\/05\/smear-artists-cauchy-salt-zipf-plot-long-shot-bias-random-matrices-diderot-zerohedge\/","title":{"rendered":"Smear Artists, Cauchy, SALT, Zipf Plot, Long Shot Bias, Random Matrices, Diderot, ZeroHedge"},"content":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb Las Vegas: Explained fragility as concavity: Mix a $2,000 bottle of wine with a $10 one. The 2 bottles will be worth less than $1,005 each. Permalink<\/a> 8:31 PM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Explained more technically why investors can’t get the alpha of the market https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/ppArXiv2.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 and on BBG TVhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/730836349004091392 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:39 PM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb When Charlatan @Noahpinion you unite with other charlatans & trolls, I will also unite them with you. Kapish? http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/smear.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:26 PM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb So if you claim some is not expert about a given subject, better know something about *that* subject. Kapish? @diane1859 Permalink<\/a> 3:11 PM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You know nothing abt physics yet claimed the subject was limited outside finance, not noticing your BS https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/scholar?q=antifragile+physics++OR+biology&btnG=&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C29 <\/a>\u00a0 @diane1859 Permalink<\/a> 3:08 PM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The full paper https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/recurse.pdf <\/a>\u00a0https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrCirillo\/status\/730878658261438464 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:57 PM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A list of smear artists and why it is necessary to expose a very small number of people. http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/smear.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:23 PM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Las Vegas: Difference between ensemble probability and time probability under tail risk.http:\/\/bloom.bg\/1WsQpRb <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:05 PM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb at SALT in Las Vegas, only person in jeans (no tie). Taleb Compares Monetary Policy to Drugs http:\/\/bloom.bg\/1THZQ8L <\/a>\u00a0 via @business Permalink<\/a> 10:50 AM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Many use statistical distributions a la @saPinker, w\/o understanding probability, like parrots memorize sentences. @DrCirillo @financequant Permalink<\/a> 10:48 AM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@financequant @DrCirillo @nntaleb Academic now but started out as trader\/investor managing own+firm capital: skin in the game trains the bullshit detector Permalink<\/a> 6:46 AM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Every model that has layering uncertainty (error on error) ends up with power law @DrCirillo @financequantpic.twitter.com\/1SGaB4WTOQ<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:42 AM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Can confirm not true: Cauchy is not the only smooth survival function.pic.twitter.com\/02FJjLxgJ3<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:06 AM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@GMWatch Kevin Folta explained to Monsanto how they should fund his project so that it would not have to be publicly reportedhttp:\/\/www.latimes.com\/opinion\/op-ed\/la-oe-0512-thacker-furberg-transparency-science-20160512-story.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:40 AM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Found the Platonic distribution on R (i.e. “smooth”) that is neither fat tailed nor thin tailed.pic.twitter.com\/iPGg41nGwe<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:40 AM – 12 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Relax. We had an actor w\/Alzheimer in the White House and many people claim things went v. well. A surviving real estate developer is picnic Permalink<\/a> 9:00 PM – 11 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Try to talk to a stranger without signaling your status & see how pleasant you will be to him\/her. This is how salespeople operate. Permalink<\/a> 1:36 PM – 11 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Today in my SALT talk I am showing the 2 flaws in Goetzmann’s paper. 1) Lucretius problems, 2) Mistake of ergodicity. @WGoetzmann Permalink<\/a> 1:18 PM – 11 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I also thought Goetzman knew something about probability distributions @WGoetzmannhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/720989442194960384 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:15 PM – 11 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1) I thought Goetzmann knew Noah Smith is a charlatan http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/SmithBSVendor.html <\/a>\u00a0 @WGoetzmann Permalink<\/a> 1:12 PM – 11 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To escape the Las Vegas surroundings, dip into mathematics\/space of functions with certain properties:http:\/\/math.stackexchange.com\/q\/1780800\/88078?stw=2 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:20 AM – 11 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ethical rule: you can only turn down an honor or a prize privately, never publicly. Permalink<\/a> 3:25 PM – 10 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Shortcuts lead to vice, the long road to virtue”: Compendaria res improbitas, virtus longa. (Optimization is the mother of all collapses) Permalink<\/a> 12:42 PM – 10 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Europa was the daughter of a Phoenician king. @noairbag @holland_tom @classicsforall Permalink<\/a> 11:51 AM – 10 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In 4th C Athens Sidonians were not considered metics and had same rights as Athenians. @holland_tom @classicsforall Permalink<\/a> 11:20 AM – 10 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Not a single person who contests that Leb speak Semitic dialect descended from Aramaic speaks Aramaic @G_Exercitus http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/notebook.htm <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:48 AM – 10 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A glimpse of our book on fat tails… our graphical book on fat tails.https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrCirillo\/status\/730035253365100545 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:03 AM – 10 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The illusion is to call any Semitic dialect that is not Hebrew as “Arabic” when speaker knows Arabic not Aramaic.https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/730005747640242176 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:53 AM – 10 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A reporter knows the inside of evil Monsanto http:\/\/www.huffingtonpost.com\/paul-thacker\/peeling-back-the-curtain-on-monsanto_b_9867902.html <\/a>\u00a0 # via @HuffPostGreen Permalink<\/a> 6:23 AM – 10 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Acondition to me a member of Diplomatic Corp is defect in logical wiring (Samantha Power, Clinton, this idiot): http:\/\/www.ronpaulinstitute.org\/archives\/featured-articles\/2016\/may\/06\/us-ambassador-to-hungary-overthrow-assad-let-in-refugees-and-fight-russiaor-else\/#.VzHQ-umpfmQ.twitter <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:17 AM – 10 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u0394\u03b5\u03bd \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03b1\u03c1\u03b1\u03b2\u03b9\u03ba\u03ac \u03b1\u03bb\u03bb\u03ac \u0394\u03c5\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u03ae \u0391\u03bd\u03b1\u03c4\u03bf\u03bb\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u0391\u03c1\u03b1\u03bc\u03b1\u03ca\u03ba\u03achttps:\/\/twitter.com\/cymoec\/status\/729962813376987136 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:05 AM – 10 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I’d rather live in a place where nothing makes sense but things work rather than a place where things make sense but don’t work #Antifragile Permalink<\/a> 2:19 PM – 9 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb So now we are announcing our advanced certificate August 10-14 Stony Brook. http:\/\/realworldrisk.com\/advanced_mini-certificate_in_risk <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:25 PM – 9 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 24 anni di pratica Galabrez, una lingua comunemente noto come “Calabrese” con il barbiere Tony.pic.twitter.com\/72lq2ZHEyQ<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:53 PM – 9 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb More on How to Price Long Shots https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/LongShot.nb.pdf <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/SYQgNFccMW<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:51 AM – 9 May 2016<\/p>\n

@DrCirillo It’s extremely alarming that so many scientists do not know how to correctly design a statistical test and how to interpret its results. Permalink<\/a> 8:31 AM – 9 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A pedagogical Monte Carlo explanation (corrected).pic.twitter.com\/zNCUKPU320<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:25 PM – 8 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb cont the declining case (fragility) @markomanka @Teheozavrpic.twitter.com\/4HykkYZ1aw<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:43 PM – 8 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Next, an aggressive claim that EVERYTHING in nature can be expressed as a sum of S functions. @markomanka @Teheozavrpic.twitter.com\/aNdR5Cti34<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:28 PM – 8 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Final @markomankapic.twitter.com\/t4yxutUnwo<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:41 AM – 8 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Corrected 2 typos @Teheozavr @markomankapic.twitter.com\/UfIBopb0Ve<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:39 AM – 8 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Statement of *a priori* truths in medicine, (but not 17th C. style), for @markomanka’s Springer Handbook. Mistakes?pic.twitter.com\/KIQDxGoB9t<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:27 AM – 8 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Uncertainty about probability raises the value of long shots in proportion to the variance [metaprobability] @matthewsyed Permalink<\/a> 5:30 AM – 8 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Some explanations of the Leicester payoff from notes: the “Long Shot Bias” seems to be miscalculated by econs.pic.twitter.com\/HDAAXASQ6w<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:18 AM – 8 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Always nice to see books of Tom Holland @holland_tom on bookshelves at parties.pic.twitter.com\/1bAe0ug62g<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:32 PM – 7 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Why we are uberizing education. This system is strating to collapse.https:\/\/twitter.com\/JonHaidt\/status\/728945780086738944 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:28 AM – 7 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb One can solve complicated mathematical ineq. by tinkering before proof. Thank you @WolframResearch https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/728660069538267136 <\/a>\u00a0 @CutTheKnotMath Permalink<\/a> 12:48 PM – 6 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Is anyone covering shorts in HLF? It is still slightly hard to borrow.pic.twitter.com\/mbrV7RJlrl<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:03 PM – 6 May 2016<\/p>\n

@CutTheKnotMath http:\/\/www.cut-the-knot.org\/arithmetic\/algebra\/InequalityFromGazetaMatematicaMarch2016_4.shtml <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/CVQWWg147t<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 10:03 AM – 6 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The candidates of @BeirutMadinati. Not one of them wearing a tie. http:\/\/www.lemonde.fr\/proche-orient\/article\/2016\/05\/06\/au-liban-un-souffle-nouveau-en-politique_4914845_3218.html <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/39yhhKuQJY<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:23 AM – 6 May 2016<\/p>\n

@SwarajyaMag Swarajya Quote Of The Day.pic.twitter.com\/lg3FsaD3SP<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:12 PM – 5 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A reminder to vote for @BeirutMadinati On Sunday. http:\/\/beirutmadinati.com\/candidates\/?lang=en <\/a>\u00a0 (although I am 3rd generation Beiruti I am registered in Amioun) Permalink<\/a> 6:12 AM – 6 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For the earlier use of doxa in Classical & Preclassica Greek: clearly opinion http:\/\/www.perseus.tufts.edu\/hopper\/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.04.0057%3Aentry%3Ddoke%2Fw <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:36 AM – 6 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Allora: Epistemic Belief => Science Pisteic Belief => Trust (Religion, Legends, Literature) Doxastic belief => Skin in the Game Belief Permalink<\/a> 5:30 AM – 6 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To understand religious “belief”: evolution of \u03b4\u03cc\u03be\u03b1 from “opinion” to “glorification”. http:\/\/biblehub.com\/greek\/1391.htm <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/mhdft9MpLp<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:22 AM – 6 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The best definition of a commons: a space in which you are treated by others the way you treat them. https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153814390523375 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:05 AM – 6 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u0421\u043f\u0430\u0441\u0438\u0431\u043e! Russia Stages Classical Concert in Recaptured Palmyra Amphitheater – http:\/\/abcn.ws\/1WL3u78 <\/a>\u00a0 via @ABC Permalink<\/a> 12:57 PM – 5 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The PDF of the book will be free. Like all our papers. And Silent Risk. Another advantage of self publishing.https:\/\/twitter.com\/Nuopb\/status\/728228386716389378 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:23 AM – 5 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Writing a tutorial book on Fat Tails w\/@DrCirillo. W\/self-publishing we control price ~$20 & paper quality. Shd we? Permalink<\/a> 7:18 AM – 5 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Andrew Gelman: “statistical incompetence at some sufficient level becomes indistinguishable from fraud”. (paraphrased) Permalink<\/a> 6:37 AM – 5 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb When Brian Eno sent me a chain letter about Black Swans and I put Stewart Brand next.https:\/\/twitter.com\/oleary_brandon\/status\/728209718187954177 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:14 AM – 5 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am intolerant, intolerant, intolerant of intellectual fraud. The world is run by ethically intolerant minorities. http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/minority.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:16 AM – 5 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There is a whole page for our Precautionary Principle https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/ppArXiv2.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html <\/a>\u00a0 @impcapital @stewartbrand @MKM_Abdul Permalink<\/a> 4:18 AM – 5 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I don’t mind people who talk “long run”, but some exploit our desire for sustainability to INCREASE risk. @stewartbrand @MKM_Abdul Permalink<\/a> 3:44 AM – 5 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Stewart Brand @stewartbrand is a dangerous, dangerous, dangerous fraud! @MKM_Abdul Permalink<\/a> 3:43 AM – 5 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fat Tails du Jour: Random Matrices do not obey Wigner’s semicircle law; effect on #BigData http:\/\/mathworld.wolfram.com\/WignersSemicircleLaw.html <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/uDJzC0TOlM<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:34 AM – 5 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Delusional” a month ago. Expect more stuff like that.https:\/\/twitter.com\/NateSilver538\/status\/718836449424977920 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:47 PM – 4 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Another way to see central limit in action! Or why the CLT fails for power laws <2https:\/\/twitter.com\/drcirillo\/status\/727860367330807809 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:55 AM – 4 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Monsanto is about as dirty as a corporation can be.Forced a paper to fire cartoonist. Note they own Hillary\/Shillaryhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/KenMcCarthy\/status\/727873276563881984 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:28 AM – 4 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Anyone heeding journos for next w\/Trump has a mental defect, given journos’ blindness in ENTIRE episode (“matter of weeks until T deflates”) Permalink<\/a> 4:20 AM – 4 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The systematic wrecking of the old order now spreading to Beirut. Please support @BeirutMadinati for the elections.https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/706823370575368192 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:40 AM – 4 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Golf: an activity that was banned in Sparta for “mollifying” its practitioners.https:\/\/twitter.com\/holland_tom\/status\/727557090420613120 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:30 AM – 3 May 2016<\/p>\n

@DrCirillo The fence paradox: we feel safe, we are not. Financial regulations are like fences: they just hide risk.pic.twitter.com\/6WHRbTQLuG<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:53 AM – 3 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Our NY June Certif. prog has already >44 pple; we are preparing a v. technical version August 15-19 in Stony Brook. http:\/\/realworldrisk.com\/inaugural_program_comments <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:26 AM – 3 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We expect Jews in pre-Islamic Arabia. Here A school of 7th century Syriac writers in Qatar. Mario Kozah @mariokozahpic.twitter.com\/xoZKC838dk<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:42 AM – 3 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb P.S. You see from above that these posts (written in 10 min) have 300K viewees, > most NYT articles. The press is increasingly irrelevant. Permalink<\/a> 4:34 AM – 3 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb TTIP: Lobbyists control bureaucrats; citizens react. We can’t be easily fooled. These documents could kill TTIPhttp:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/europe\/ttip-leak-could-spell-the-end-of-controversial-trade-deal-say-campaigners-a7009896.html <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:40 AM – 3 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, BS vendor Sharro, some pple characterize phenomena *before* they happen.& they do so scientifically, not w\/blogshttps:\/\/twitter.com\/KarlreMarks\/status\/727407722807853060 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:37 AM – 3 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Email:”Why do you spell Kapish instead of capisce?” A: Kapish,like prozhut & gabagool aren’t in Italian,but in Kalabrez still spoken in NY. Permalink<\/a> 5:32 PM – 2 May 2016<\/p>\n

@MarcosCarreira https:\/\/twitter.com\/romenesko\/status\/727167515760201728 <\/a>\u00a0 cc @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 10:42 AM – 2 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Se volevo insultarti in italiano ti avrei chiamato un “coglione”. @Keynesblog @SanguineEmpiric Permalink<\/a> 7:39 AM – 2 May 2016<\/p>\n

@thickopedia Rather than create conditions for organic innovation & growth, buraucrats think they can make them with subsidies.https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/727090878108540929 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:53 AM – 2 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Basic income:a necessity when robots get the jobs & their designers get the shekels. Like Athens but slaves=robots @wimgrommen @Johnicholas Permalink<\/a> 5:27 AM – 2 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Soul in the game. @pareekhjain Permalink<\/a> 5:02 AM – 2 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In other words it is not because successful innovations have had funding that there is a causal link. Innovate first, fund later. Permalink<\/a> 4:47 AM – 2 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The link betw investment and innovation is very tenuous, mostly in the minds of bureaucrats https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/13012333374\/posts\/10153701042473375 <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/NY63P0PcOP<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:02 AM – 2 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Doesn’t say public is even better at detecting BS vendors: least prestigious are PR people, journos, politicianshttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Forbes\/status\/726838850476228608 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:52 AM – 2 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Max Abrahams knows his stuff. He rediscovered things compatible with minority rules, renormalization, etc.https:\/\/twitter.com\/MaxAbrahms\/status\/726917109553455104 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:36 PM – 1 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Anyone who thinks you need “investments” to fund “innovation” is an empty suit B-School prof. Apple\/FB\/MSFT, etc.https:\/\/twitter.com\/KenMcCarthy\/status\/726894285329711104 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:48 PM – 1 May 2016<\/p>\n

@GhassanDahhan @nntaleb An art critic is not an artist. Yet people who write books about philosophy believe they’re philosophers. Permalink<\/a> 7:49 AM – 1 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Why ISIS will eventually run Saudi Arabia: royal family violates rules of human cultism & uses Wahabism for power.https:\/\/twitter.com\/semperfidem2004\/status\/726732506549096448 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:34 AM – 1 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There are philosophers who never wrote anything; & there are a lot of writers of philosophy who aren’t philosophers.https:\/\/twitter.com\/holland_tom\/status\/726709583184584704 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:02 AM – 1 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Baath Party in Syria’s “Arabization” program ignored the 40+ Syrian philosophers who wrote in Greek.pic.twitter.com\/hnxB5H58CW<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:53 AM – 1 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Saudi Barbaria’s billboard in Lebanon “Greatness of KSA frm the *greatness* of its men”; 3 “great” royals #notsatirepic.twitter.com\/9VmTB8ikMC<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:38 AM – 1 May 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Antifragilehttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thackerpd\/status\/726036335610335232 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:59 AM – 1 May 2016<\/p>\n

@Jeff_Fine @nntaleb @MaxAbrahms @samfbiddle @worldpeace @WapoCatpic.twitter.com\/QzeWC43X00<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:41 PM – 30 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Comment: I will invest in the business of efficient demolition of post 1960 structures as they will be replaced w\/more fractal architecture. Permalink<\/a> 12:57 PM – 30 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thank God Alfred Nobel discovered dynamite. #Lindyeffecthttps:\/\/twitter.com\/RemiSimasius\/status\/726485602561081344 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:55 PM – 30 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Xristos Anesti to all Orthodox people & others who celebrate! — Mshu7o d’qam min qabro [in West. Aramaic] Msi7 qam min qabro [in Levantine] Permalink<\/a> 10:10 AM – 30 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The house on the top right is the ancestral home of the australian governor Marie Bashir (my grandfather’s cousin) https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Marie_Bashir <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:21 AM – 30 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I vote for Douma as the most attractive village in North Lebanon.pic.twitter.com\/QfE7WvMZkI<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:15 AM – 30 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Probability du Jour: The empirical distribution as a Brownian Bridge.pic.twitter.com\/eylDC4EzvT<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:36 AM – 30 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/2 “Diderot: “…people tell me that I have the air of a man perpetually seeking something he lacks”. #ModernPagan.pic.twitter.com\/x8k9O6kesB<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:36 AM – 30 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb People don’t get false positives are *necessary* to have results. The alternative is is more terrorism acts.https:\/\/twitter.com\/imraansiddiqi\/status\/726217800411279360 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:18 AM – 30 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You can tell real scientists from CV-builders: the real thing tell you what they are *trying* to figure out, not what they *did* in career. Permalink<\/a> 3:17 AM – 30 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is remarkable how little it costs to buy Washington. As Monsanto realized, return >>> than R&D.https:\/\/twitter.com\/MaxAbrahms\/status\/726187428587905024 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:20 PM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No surprise. Remember the lowly standards of Bloomberg as they did not retract this http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/SmithBSVendor.html <\/a>\u00a0 @GTCost Permalink<\/a> 3:33 PM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I do not delete my tweets and do not fear you journos. They autodelete >90d. Kapish? Do your F*** homework, journo. @caitlindewey Permalink<\/a> 3:19 PM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb DISCOVERY DU JOUR. Orthodox lent allows squid\/squid ink! It is vegan, but allows squid ink! Discovered on last day! http:\/\/www.assumptionaz.org\/studies_in_orthodoxy\/lenten_resources\/fast_guidelines <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:32 PM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/2 For discussion… It is a very casual observation. First, is it true for all Lebanon or just Koura? https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Koura_District <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:45 PM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Mystery? In N. Lebanon, shrines for St George in Greek-Orthodox areas, for Mary in Maronite ones #pagansubstratepic.twitter.com\/eUysTftzp6<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:41 PM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Since twitter accounts of Syrian rebels is run by a Saudi-funded PR firm in DC, what can we expect from Wstrn media?https:\/\/twitter.com\/soshiflick\/status\/726092652932960258 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:03 AM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Try to remember when reading anything written by a journalist (especially a science journalist) that he is *by definition* an impostor. Permalink<\/a> 8:34 AM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I thank @BeirutMadinati for bringing a hope of governance & call on the Lebanese diaspora to help them. #BeirutMadinati Permalink<\/a> 8:18 AM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Because we buy oil from Saudi Barbaria, what they do in Yemen is OK. Russia is “autoritarian”. Hypocrites. @robggill @zerohedge Permalink<\/a> 7:45 AM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb ZeroHedge: last bastion outside the stamp of the bureaucratestablishment. Bloomberg (again) failed a hacket job.http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-04-29\/full-story-behind-bloombergs-attempt-unmask-zero-hedge <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:25 AM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb He is right: Hillary Monsanto-Malmaison represents everything that’s fake in governance-free bureaucratistan.https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/726045073775828992 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:02 AM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The reason commerce flourished in the Levant was thanks to Francis I’s deal with the Sultan (“echelles du Levant”) @peterfrankopan Permalink<\/a> 12:39 AM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Encountered @peterfrankopan’s relative (ancstr?), emissary on the silk road, in the 1526 Franco-Ottoman Alliance. https:\/\/fr.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Jean_Frangipani <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:34 AM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A7san shi tele3 min jdid 3enna bi Lebnen w bled el Shem #BeirutMadinati sawwtulon! 3enna amal 3a musta2balna. Sawwto la #BeirutMadinati Permalink<\/a> 12:05 AM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Yes see Taleb and Ruffie, 1965: Etudes hemotypiques des ethnies Libanaises @faizkatt @raytheonunited Permalink<\/a> 12:04 AM – 29 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Where we show that the reciprocal of some fat tailed is…Gaussian!pic.twitter.com\/wOyLRurGo5<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:09 PM – 28 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Admonish your friends in private; paise them in public. Distrust anyone who does the reverse. (Secrete amicos admone; lauda palam.) Permalink<\/a> 4:16 AM – 28 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@jdoleiv @nntaleb twitter allows me to follow skin in the game participants rather than just sideline journos. Game changer. Permalink<\/a> 2:46 AM – 28 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Correction (3d version) L’3am yitjahalak mush 3am yensak Permalink<\/a> 1:11 AM – 27 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Correction: L’3am yitjahalak mush 3am yijhalak Permalink<\/a> 12:32 AM – 27 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb L’3am yijhalak mush 3am yijhalak [Translation is open to improvement]pic.twitter.com\/P7ixz7Z6rC<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:27 AM – 27 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Latkazzeb 3al kizzeb Yfakkerak bitsad2o. \u0644\u062a\u0643\u0632\u0628 \u0639\u0644\u0643\u0632\u0627\u0628 \u064a\u0641\u0627\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0643 \u0628\u062a\u0633\u062f\u0642\u0648\u0627pic.twitter.com\/5qX83MfP8t<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:49 PM – 26 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My policy is to block anyone who mentions “proof” and “aphorism” in the same breath. Makes life cleaaaaaaaaaaarer!https:\/\/twitter.com\/alexandersafir\/status\/725209424323743744 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:27 PM – 26 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u0628\u062a\u0639\u0648\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0627\u064a\u0634 \u0628\u0645\u0639\u0631\u0641\u062a\u0648\u0627 [Attempts to translate into Levantine]pic.twitter.com\/DD8OSl6eSh<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:13 PM – 26 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u064a\u0644\u064a \u0628\u0639\u0631\u0642\u0644\u0643 \u0634\u0648\u064a \u0628\u0623\u062e\u0631\u0643 \u0643\u062a\u064a\u0631 Permalink<\/a> 11:06 PM – 26 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0634\u064a \u0646\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0646\u0648\u0627 \u0661) \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0627\u0645\u064a(\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0634\u0631\u0642\u064a) \u0644\u063a\u0647 \u0645\u0634 “\u0644\u0647\u062c\u0629” \u0662) \u0627\u0644\u0644\u063a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0627\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0642 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a! (\u0648\u0644\u0648 \u0641\u064a\u0627 \u0663\u0660 \\\u0661\u0660\u0660 \u0643\u0644\u0645\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0631\u0628\u064a) \u0663) \u0627\u0644\u0644\u063a\u0629 \u0628\u062a\u0628\u0644\u0634 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0623\u062f\u0628 Permalink<\/a> 10:45 PM – 26 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb \u0628\u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0627\u0645\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0634\u0627\u0645\u064a (\u0647\u0648\u064a \u0627\u0633\u0631\u0639 \u0644\u0644\u0643\u062a\u0627\u0628\u0629) \u0628\u0633 \u0644\u0644 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0631\u0646\u062a \u0628\u062f\u062f\u0643 \u062a\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0627\u062a\u064a\u0646\u064a \u062d\u062a\u0627 \u0645\u0627\u064a\u0643\u062a\u0628\u0648 \u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0646\u0643\u0644\u064a\u0632\u064a @AssalehAmer @adnanhobalah @ZJourei Permalink<\/a> 10:39 PM – 26 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Kill shi bi3ar2l shwayy bi2a55er ktiyr @AssalehAmer @adnanhobalah @crackmandem @ZJoureir Permalink<\/a> 10:04 PM – 26 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Iza baddak ahl el balad yektbo bil-legha 3a facebook w social media sahhillun yeha. @adnanhobalah @ZJoureir Permalink<\/a> 2:15 PM – 26 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Iza me7tar 3a kitebet elshami bil7arf el-latine shouf el inklise “dough” “rough” w kelmet heik. @ZJoureir @adnanhobalah Permalink<\/a> 1:28 PM – 26 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For potential slayers of evil dragons such as Monsanto Ralph Nader’s citizen advocacy group mega-event May 23-26 https:\/\/www.breakingthroughpower.org\/ <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:11 AM – 26 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@linaadali John the Grammarian as the Byzantine ambassador to the Abbasids before caliph al-Ma’m\u016bn (left) & emperor Theophilospic.twitter.com\/KRzEibb7St<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:26 AM – 24 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Said values include the firm belief that Shiites & *others* are deviant.https:\/\/twitter.com\/ArabianVeritas\/status\/724587227012063232 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:12 AM – 25 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Debunking some nonsense in the measurement of inequality. Final results. https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/GINI-1.pdf <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/Lcwyo9bFO2<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:50 PM – 24 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Palm Sunday in Damascus 7 km from ISIShttps:\/\/twitter.com\/AssalehAmer\/status\/724243496329076738 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:50 AM – 24 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A Graeco- Roman temple 2 miles outside Amioun. No pagan worshippers this morning except for yours truly.pic.twitter.com\/acehLKOwk7<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:52 AM – 24 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb From experience, never trust the UK press.https:\/\/twitter.com\/holland_tom\/status\/724149265916936192 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:37 AM – 24 Apr 2016<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb Las Vegas: Explained fragility as concavity: Mix a $2,000 bottle of wine with a $10 one. The 2 bottles will be worth less than $1,005 each. Permalink 8:31 PM – 12 May 2016 @nntaleb Explained more technically why investors can’t get the alpha of the market https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/ppArXiv2.pdf \u00a0 and on BBG TVhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/730836349004091392 \u00a0 Permalink […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1266,1270,1268,1269,801,1265,523,1267],"class_list":["post-8387","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-cauchy","tag-diderot","tag-long-shot-bias","tag-random-matrices","tag-salt","tag-smear-artists","tag-zerohedge","tag-zipf-plot"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8387","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8387"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8387\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8389,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8387\/revisions\/8389"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8387"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8387"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8387"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}