{"id":8379,"date":"2016-04-17T12:49:04","date_gmt":"2016-04-17T19:49:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8379"},"modified":"2016-04-17T12:49:04","modified_gmt":"2016-04-17T19:49:04","slug":"tail-probabilities-ahiqar-the-aramaean-facebook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/tail-probabilities-ahiqar-the-aramaean-facebook\/","title":{"rendered":"Tail Probabilities, Ahiqar the Aramaean | Facebook"},"content":{"rendered":"

Finally put my finger on what is wrong with the common belief in psychological findings<\/a> that people “irrationally” overestimate tail probabilities, calling it a “bias”. Simply, these experimenters assume that people make a single decision in their lifetime! The entire field of psychology of decisions missed the point.*<\/p>\n

If you take the risk –any risk — *repeatedly*, the way to count is in exposure per lifespan. You get diverging results.<\/p>\n

It turns out that your grandmother is more rational and more *scientific* than Cass Sunstein who advised Obama on “behavioral biases” of humans, trying to “nudge” us out of them. I am fed up with the class of people who think they know better than us what is in our best interest.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/ppArXiv2.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

*(By entire I mean *entire*, no exception. They may handle biases differently but their equations have the same flaw.)
\n4\/12\/16<\/p>\n

————————————————-<\/p>\n

“When the rich eats a snake, people think it’s for its properties; when the poor does it: because of hunger.<\/a>”<\/p>\n

The Wisdom of Ahiqar the Aramaean.
\n(Incidentally many of Aesop’s fables come from him.)
\n4\/11\/16<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Finally put my finger on what is wrong with the common belief in psychological findings that people “irrationally” overestimate tail probabilities, calling it a “bias”. Simply, these experimenters assume that people make a single decision in their lifetime! The entire field of psychology of decisions missed the point.* If you take the risk –any risk […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[145],"tags":[1261,1256,1259,1257,1258,1260],"class_list":["post-8379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook","tag-ahiqar-the-aramaean","tag-cass-sunstein","tag-decision-making","tag-nudge","tag-psychology","tag-tail-probabilities"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8379","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8379"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8379\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8380,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8379\/revisions\/8380"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8379"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8379"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8379"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}