{"id":8372,"date":"2016-04-14T23:42:13","date_gmt":"2016-04-15T06:42:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8372"},"modified":"2016-04-14T23:42:13","modified_gmt":"2016-04-15T06:42:13","slug":"stewart-brand-stony-brook-arnold-kling-zika-gmos-mean-deviation-ahiqar-fat-tony-the-next-subprime","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/stewart-brand-stony-brook-arnold-kling-zika-gmos-mean-deviation-ahiqar-fat-tony-the-next-subprime\/","title":{"rendered":"Stewart Brand, Stony Brook, Arnold Kling, Zika, GMOs, Mean Deviation, Ahiqar, Fat Tony, The Next Subprime"},"content":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb GMO: @stewartbrand & @mark_lynas are sub-clueless about risk, science… Our latest @mosicr https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/Precautionary%20Principle%20Papers.pdf <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/qUIvEc2RJD<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:19 PM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “With animals you make up quality w\/quantity; a good human is superior to a thousand” @GhassanDahhan #minorityrulepic.twitter.com\/8C0QmlV1hs<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:11 PM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb – “Mr T., can you read an Arabic text from the 11th C? – Yes – Didn’t Arabic change? – Alas, not in 14 C, and that’s exactly the problem. Permalink<\/a> 5:25 PM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Gardner boy, show antecedent to convexity argument vs fragile. If you can. Bitter envious idiot @dgardner Permalink<\/a> 4:45 PM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@MaxAbrahms Hillary still insists regime change in Libya was a good idea even though Libyans disagree & ISIS now thrives there: http:\/\/foreignpolicy.com\/2016\/04\/14\/hillary-clinton-has-no-regrets-about-libya\/?platform=hootsuite <\/a>\u00a0. Permalink<\/a> 3:08 PM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Is it me or is there something surreal abt an economist on public welfare lecturing independent people about how to invest? #skininthegame Permalink<\/a> 1:52 PM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I am not saying tweets should not have *illustrations* for stimulation, they do not need a *proof* if there is one. Kapish? @longitude0 Permalink<\/a> 1:47 PM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If you add a picture in a tweet to back-up your assertion, you will sound less convincing. The place for backups are endnotes not tweets. Permalink<\/a> 1:35 PM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Preparing Real World Risk Workshop part II in Stony Brook. This is the comparison with RWRI http:\/\/realworldrisk.com <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/3d8GojmRY5<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:53 AM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb So when a GMO promoting “science” journalist refers to a paper that uses P-values, show him this [Section IV] https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/ppArXiv2.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 10:43 AM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Looks like Arnold Kling is rephrasing #Antifragile. The copycat deserves some scrutiny.https:\/\/twitter.com\/paulg\/status\/720625255811645440 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:24 AM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A very solid paper by Yaneer et al on other possible causes of Zika, with the usual suspect: insecticide.https:\/\/twitter.com\/yaneerbaryam\/status\/720632525463404544 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:21 AM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb GLOBALIZATION: Ricardo’s Comp Adv is flawed mathematically when variability is added. Put SOME rigor into economics!pic.twitter.com\/tTKg2etfjH<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:54 AM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 3 Lobbyists 4 Bureaucrats in DC\/Brusselshttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ianbremmer\/status\/720615827544875009 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:17 AM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If the IMF had a randomly selected horse in place of Lagarde the place would have been more realistic.https:\/\/twitter.com\/ghchammas\/status\/720462165354917889 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:04 AM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@BryanAppleyard \u2018imbecility of an order that has few historical parallels\u2019 John Gray on the West\u2019s Middle East policy http:\/\/tinyurl.com\/z5epfe2 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:13 AM – 14 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@WeAreLebanon Good morning from #Bazal, north #Lebanon By Ibrahim Anouti #WeAreLebanonpic.twitter.com\/kTCNARNr2S<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:33 AM – 7 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Bye bye GMOs. A technnology that doesn’t grow is effectively dead. Acreage for GM Crops Declined in 2015http:\/\/nyti.ms\/23tkPHi <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 1:03 PM – 13 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@MaxAbrahms When pondering regime change, a key question is whether the regime’s replacement will be better — not whether the current regime is good. Permalink<\/a> 5:19 AM – 13 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is not in jest: I’ve seen some in North Syria. Permalink<\/a> 3:13 AM – 13 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There are people in the Levant with 6 fingers.https:\/\/twitter.com\/conflictantiq\/status\/720114626625671169 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:08 AM – 13 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Nero di seppia. Infine.pic.twitter.com\/sMseHkJcw1<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:06 PM – 12 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Make the GMO imbecile read this as well https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/715862574059937793 <\/a>\u00a0 @Ernestocordo @randal_olson Permalink<\/a> 1:25 PM – 12 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Economics has been even more wrong for much longer.https:\/\/twitter.com\/VonNeumann5\/status\/719911166810722304 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:53 AM – 12 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Cont: we tracked econ PhDs who went into trading and found only 2 out of 87 survived. Firms like Renaissance never hire economists. Permalink<\/a> 6:36 AM – 12 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Explanation: events & price reaction to events are as Fat Tony says “different tings”. How Fat Tony got rich (& fat)pic.twitter.com\/esPtv48lhF<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:38 AM – 12 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I conjecture that if you gave an investor the next day’s news 24 h in advance he would go bust in less than a year. Permalink<\/a> 6:21 PM – 11 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Silent Risk proof of why Mean deviation better than Standard Deviation @WAWilsonIVpic.twitter.com\/4DP7YjYTWs<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:34 PM – 11 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A theorem about ruin problems by the Maestro Marco Avellaneda originating from a twitter thread!https:\/\/twitter.com\/MAvellaneda55\/status\/719592339380006914 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 11:28 AM – 11 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Which illustrates the wiki entry for Norm L-3 for a Wiener process ||W|| @MAvellaneda55 @normonicspic.twitter.com\/RVjAOUX78x<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:09 AM – 11 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A Brownian motion that never hits ruin at zero Bessel 3 function. @MAvellaneda55 @normonicspic.twitter.com\/p2y5vDBELs<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:04 AM – 11 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Summary of statistical errors in @sapinker & goons is out (ungated) http:\/\/fooledbyrandomness.com\/significance.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 http:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/j.1740-9713.2016.00903.x\/abstract <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/WqQTTGd7FH<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:04 AM – 11 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@menleben pic.twitter.com\/9TuPchZHa1<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:10 PM – 10 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2- You learn from trading that those who blow you up look “measured” a la Hillary not the wild animals a la Donaldo @Codetie @EconTalker Permalink<\/a> 2:41 PM – 10 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1-Never be fooled by the superficial. The most interventionist\/dangerous US prez has been the smooth behaving GWB!https:\/\/twitter.com\/codetie\/status\/719270808577818624 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:39 PM – 10 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Calling out BS is a social obligation for all of us.https:\/\/twitter.com\/dfsalbatross\/status\/719146550216118274 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:51 AM – 10 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The typical misrepresentation of my work: all members of the Smith family are tall != all tall pple are Smith familyhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/jilm\/status\/719147265982603268 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:32 AM – 10 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Papers claiming “overestimation” of tail risk assume agent makes 1 decision per lifetime !!! https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/ppArXiv2.pdf <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/sa45xOWydm<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:54 AM – 10 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A scenic beach, if easy to reach, will be soon jam-packed; ideas & investments, if both obvious & easy to execute, will soon be overcrowded. Permalink<\/a> 5:34 AM – 10 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Look at how Monsanto PR firms create fake accounts with female names to harass\/defame @RachelsNews, a teenager: https:\/\/twitter.com\/DanteExMachina\/followers <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:19 AM – 10 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Ahiqar was of the origin of Aesop’s fables. In history, origin is the upper,not lower bound. http:\/\/www.syriacstudies.com\/2014\/02\/06\/the-words-of-ahiqar-aramaic-proverbs-and-precepts\/ <\/a>\u00a0 http:\/\/www.kathimerini.gr\/346660\/article\/politismos\/arxeio-politismoy\/h-dihghsh-toy-axikar-apo-th-mesopotamia <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:44 AM – 10 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If the rich eats a snake, they think it’s for its properties; if the poor does it: for his hunger. Wisdom of Ahiqarpic.twitter.com\/TZ7tTsMJl6<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:25 PM – 9 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Peer review” in psychology & decision theory doesn’t count. The peer review should be done by 1) physicists. 2) time. (worst of 2). Permalink<\/a> 10:19 AM – 9 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Added a section on “no we don’t use logarithms for utility theory!”. https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/ppArXiv2.pdf <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/rfabeGp3Ij<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 9:39 AM – 9 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The point of #Antifragile that distributing small mistakes vs top-down mistake concentration =>thintails vs fattailshttps:\/\/twitter.com\/BrianNosek\/status\/718812302141714433 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:58 AM – 9 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Social networks are now forcing companies to become moral; life today is rebecoming transparent (#Lindyeffect)https:\/\/twitter.com\/FPAction\/status\/718450334511734786 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:27 PM – 8 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Is Fat Tony a real or fictitious character? Permalink<\/a> 4:59 PM – 8 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Never cross a river if it is on average 4 feet deep.” (1996, Dynamic Hedging)https:\/\/twitter.com\/Tubbyturkey\/status\/718581172817645568 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:30 PM – 8 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Proves that an econ or psych. PhD makes you know less abt RISK than someone illiterate: https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/ppArXiv2.pdf <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/Xg3qjxrGB7<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:41 PM – 8 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I know something about Ketchum prying into my own affairs. However low IQ & espionage aren’t a good combination.https:\/\/twitter.com\/diegocreimer\/status\/718425193018953728 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:06 PM – 8 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Where we show fallacies committed by such bullshit vendors as Cass Sunstein in the name of “rationality”https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/718456742141673472 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:21 AM – 8 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Mathematical Foundations of the Precautionary Principle, (draft with mistakes) https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/ppArXiv2.pdf <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/GrL6rritKD<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:13 AM – 8 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb They look like my weighlifting friends.https:\/\/twitter.com\/andybolton1008\/status\/718347509328920576 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 3:19 AM – 8 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Any self-owned, independent person, #doesnthidehisflaws #sayitthewayitis, when public, could be called “a narcissistic bully”. @EconTalker Permalink<\/a> 6:06 PM – 7 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@ttmygh …and you wonder why people are voting for @realDonaldTrump The hypocrisy of the political class is breathtakingpic.twitter.com\/vo72UebMhe<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:01 PM – 7 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The next subprime.https:\/\/twitter.com\/amusechimp\/status\/718218640911425537 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 5:11 PM – 7 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What every risk taker knows but academics in decision theory\/econ don’t: space&time probabilities are NOT the same.pic.twitter.com\/RvFdeodOQU<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:09 PM – 7 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb An economist just said “Humans are not perfect machines”. But machines are not perfect machines. Permalink<\/a> 11:26 AM – 7 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If you do not like aphorisms, do *not* buy books of aphorism. Kapish? http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/The-Bed-Procrustes-Philosophical-Practical\/dp\/1400069971\/ref=cm_cr_arp_d_product_top?ie=UTF8 <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/xPImSSnQAI<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:20 AM – 7 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We are doing very well with our uberization of training http:\/\/www.realworldrisk.com <\/a>\u00a0 , as in classical times. @JonHaidt @aminterest Permalink<\/a> 4:44 AM – 7 Apr 2016<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb GMO: @stewartbrand & @mark_lynas are sub-clueless about risk, science… Our latest @mosicr https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/Precautionary%20Principle%20Papers.pdf \u00a0pic.twitter.com\/qUIvEc2RJD Permalink 6:19 PM – 14 Apr 2016 @nntaleb “With animals you make up quality w\/quantity; a good human is superior to a thousand” @GhassanDahhan #minorityrulepic.twitter.com\/8C0QmlV1hs Permalink 6:11 PM – 14 Apr 2016 @nntaleb – “Mr T., can you read an […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1253,1250,64,791,1252,657,1249,1254,1251],"class_list":["post-8372","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-ahiqar","tag-arnold-kling","tag-fat-tony","tag-gmos","tag-mean-deviation","tag-stewart-brand","tag-stony-brook","tag-the-next-subprime","tag-zika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8372","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8372"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8372\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8374,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8372\/revisions\/8374"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8372"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8372"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8372"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}