{"id":8361,"date":"2016-04-06T23:16:17","date_gmt":"2016-04-07T06:16:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8361"},"modified":"2016-04-06T23:16:17","modified_gmt":"2016-04-07T06:16:17","slug":"p-values-deadlift-precautionary-principle-trump-virtue-kapish","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2016\/04\/p-values-deadlift-precautionary-principle-trump-virtue-kapish\/","title":{"rendered":"P Values, Deadlift, Precautionary Principle, Trump, Virtue, Kapish?"},"content":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb In high frequ quant finance we use >10^6 data points & nobody knows pvalue. Psychologists trying to get away with 10https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/717366620331618304 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:02 PM – 6 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Normal humans can learn from Iraq and Lybia. Journalism became the last refuge for those with brain defects.https:\/\/twitter.com\/maxabrahms\/status\/717880860066856960 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:56 PM – 6 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My Skin in the Game WIPhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/evonomicsmag\/status\/717556674559668224 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 4:03 AM – 6 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Por primera vez, texto en espa\u00f1ol [Bogota]https:\/\/twitter.com\/luiscano\/status\/717442396473135104 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:54 PM – 5 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To paraphrase Yogi Bera, 90% of deadlifting is mental; the other half is physical. Permalink<\/a> 8:13 AM – 5 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Meanwhile a 80% power for a test and 5% p-value aren’t science.Pick a large n & fughedaoudit http:\/\/fooledbyrandomness.com\/pvalues.pdf <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/SUMZ6zCBeA<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:01 AM – 5 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Instead of risking Max deadlift, easier to figure it out from max{lbs: 3 reps <=failure}. @Pete_Spence @georgepearkes Permalink<\/a> 6:43 AM – 5 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb in lbs of course. Permalink<\/a> 6:32 AM – 5 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What is the max deadlift for a noncompetitive flaneur like me (adj. by age group) that would be considered decent? Permalink<\/a> 6:29 AM – 5 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@esalazar_y There are only two people missing #Seneca and #FatTony @nntalebpic.twitter.com\/aojYNa4QNk<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:37 PM – 4 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Precautionary Principle Simplified: Started rewriting @yaneerbaryam @normonics @RupertReadpic.twitter.com\/i12VkJn8WC<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:40 AM – 4 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@kupiako @nntaleb @DontFadeeMeBro And his father died in 1999 Permalink<\/a> 7:28 AM – 4 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Main diff betw. Trump and Fat Tony: 1) His FatToniness doesn’t like publicity, 2) Fat Tony wouldn’t marry a model.https:\/\/twitter.com\/UncleDario1\/status\/716995760181616641 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:30 AM – 4 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Also Trump had 4 siblings. @DontFadeeMeBro Permalink<\/a> 7:26 AM – 4 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I only trust people who don’t care about their reputation. Virtue ethics is about acts of virtue even if they come with negative reward. Permalink<\/a> 7:25 AM – 4 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb That is a myth about Trump’s inheritance. Work the numbers of cohort of others who have inherited.https:\/\/twitter.com\/gweirydd\/status\/716993004096077824 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 7:20 AM – 4 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal: Rediscovers scaling laws, how fragility increases with size.pic.twitter.com\/55uXlT5XwD<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:15 AM – 4 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 305): Politicians sh**t scared of the press.pic.twitter.com\/ZwM5grWlsV<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:11 AM – 4 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Trump: The Art of the Deal (pp. 282-283): How consultants & executives don’t hold a candle to someone w\/ #SITGpic.twitter.com\/24nofJ5AcN<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:08 AM – 4 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “To me, committees are what insecure people create in order to put off making hard decisions.” Trump: The Art of the Deal (p. 281) Permalink<\/a> 7:05 AM – 4 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My hobby is busting bullshitters @iandavidmorris, a la Feynman: \u201cScience is the belief in the ignorance of experts\u201dhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Priapus_D\/status\/716972631925387264 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:04 AM – 4 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The fellow did not break the truth: comments in prnthss which is NOT standard but NOT unethical. Kapish? @semperfidem2004 @iandavidmorris Permalink<\/a> 3:04 PM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb In real science it is not about whether the scientist has the right standards; it is about his THEORY. Kapish? @homophonous @iandavidmorris Permalink<\/a> 2:19 PM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) which is why Lux.’s theory is a valid hunch; disproofs are unrigorous w\/absence of evidence fallacies. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink<\/a> 2:08 PM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1\/Every Arabic speaker who had to memorize poetry knows that pre-Islamic vocabulary is v. different from Q. @joebradfordnet @iandavidmorris Permalink<\/a> 2:05 PM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@republicofmath MT @MathFour Engineers think equations approx reality. Physicists think reality approx equations. Mathematicians know equations are reality Permalink<\/a> 11:31 AM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2) So in spite of his solecism I find him closer to the SUBSTANCE of the subject matter than your elaborate nitpicking @iandavidmorris Permalink<\/a> 12:40 PM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1) As I said he knew enough Syriac to have detected the problem and confused Payne Smith for his daughter’s translation. @iandavidmorris Permalink<\/a> 12:38 PM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb His “sparkle” is in Payne. Check again. Attacking someone’s thesis on his etiquette is failing us: we care about the truth @iandavidmorris Permalink<\/a> 12:20 PM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Finally, in my world (science, search for truth), scholarship is about SUBSTANCE, not trifles. @iandavidmorris Permalink<\/a> 12:16 PM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What makes me doubt your scholarship is that the fact that you did not check if the language was from Payne, not his own. @iandavidmorris Permalink<\/a> 12:15 PM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb You are conflating breach of ethics & breach of the etiquette of a research milieu. By nitpicking, you reinforced his thesis.@iandavidmorris Permalink<\/a> 11:56 AM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 2\/2 If it weren’t for Obama, Shillary Clinton wd have transformed Damascus into an AlQaeda or ISIS Base. Keep her on the lecture circuit. Permalink<\/a> 9:33 AM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We need to keep Shillary out of the White House. Whatever it takes, even if it means having a robot as president.https:\/\/twitter.com\/MaxAbrahms\/status\/716644245977899008 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 9:24 AM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Summary: Anything that has an infinite (or \u201clong\u201d) shelf life (i.e. \u201csustainable\u201d) falls under Precautionary Pple.pic.twitter.com\/55pwCgaJM0<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:55 AM – 3 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I think I got the p-hacking distribution & given no outcry by psych trolls it isn’t a “rediscovery”. http:\/\/fooledbyrandomness.com\/pvalues.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 @learnfromerror Permalink<\/a> 3:13 PM – 2 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Nobody can explain why the neocons are buying that Saudi Barbaria is helping Syria to become democratic. Is neocon a result of brain damage? Permalink<\/a> 2:45 PM – 2 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If all progress is innovation, all innovation is not progress. As a matter of fact, 99.9% of innovations fail. @sarah_cone @uistbhoy88 Permalink<\/a> 9:39 AM – 2 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that hotshot architects try to impress other architects and we are left paying the price. #noskininthegame Permalink<\/a> 7:52 AM – 2 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Rainy Saturday: density of the preimage of the power of test. Concavity of measure, mean is lower than orig powerpic.twitter.com\/mKd3T2CyNR<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:49 AM – 2 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sadly, when a gentle, low-testosterone looking person promotes peace, he is much less convincing than a warrior-looking bully. Permalink<\/a> 6:45 AM – 2 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The problem with architecture is that, unlike with fashion, music or cinema, fads leave a permanent scar. Permalink<\/a> 4:59 AM – 2 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This summer I want to learn a new language. Which sequence is preferable? (Urdu as proxy for Hindi for script). Permalink<\/a> 2:49 PM – 1 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Metadistribution: The dist of the pre-image of a power of a test. In other words, Power is as BS as P-Value.pic.twitter.com\/xAGvyuqmjk<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:08 PM – 1 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@MaxAbrahms You know you’re a sectarian fraud when you say Assad must go for humanitarian reasons while cheering the Saudi-led carpet-bombing in Yemen. Permalink<\/a> 2:24 AM – 31 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb P-value is a stochastic measure. Stochastic measures are not measures. http:\/\/fooledbyrandomness.com\/pvalues.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 @dsquareddigest Permalink<\/a> 11:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Fixed! @SandrewFinancepic.twitter.com\/fWj8wc5z5F<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:01 AM – 1 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Connecting the Precautionary PPle to Peters and Gell-Mann(2015); something MISSED by the idiots in decision theory.pic.twitter.com\/sOplMWr1we<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:37 AM – 1 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb We are reframing the MINI CERTIFICATE IN RISK TAKING as risk management is back office, risk taking is front office. http:\/\/realworldrisk.com\/inaugural_program_comments <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:11 AM – 1 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@garyruskin Then: #Monsanto hid the truth about PCBs http:\/\/bit.ly\/1C6Gupx <\/a>\u00a0. Now: Monsanto says “Roundup Is Not A Carcinogen” http:\/\/wbur.fm\/1MZz35R <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:12 AM – 1 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Summary of philosophical approach to the inverse problem (in Silent Risk).pic.twitter.com\/Sw3BQt1kvW<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:05 AM – 1 Apr 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The precautionary principle papers: No, there is no *scientific* evidence “GMO” are safe http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html <\/a>\u00a0pic.twitter.com\/d08P8gYtLr<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 4:25 AM – 1 Apr 2016<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb In high frequ quant finance we use >10^6 data points & nobody knows pvalue. Psychologists trying to get away with 10https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/717366620331618304 \u00a0 Permalink 7:02 PM – 6 Apr 2016 @nntaleb Normal humans can learn from Iraq and Lybia. Journalism became the last refuge for those with brain defects.https:\/\/twitter.com\/maxabrahms\/status\/717880860066856960 \u00a0 Permalink 6:56 PM – 6 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1247,1248,1226,753,1034,494],"class_list":["post-8361","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-deadlift","tag-kapish","tag-p-values","tag-precautionary-principle","tag-trump","tag-virtue"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8361","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8361"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8361\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8363,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8361\/revisions\/8363"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8361"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8361"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8361"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}