{"id":8338,"date":"2016-03-23T20:37:25","date_gmt":"2016-03-24T03:37:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8338"},"modified":"2016-03-23T20:37:25","modified_gmt":"2016-03-24T03:37:25","slug":"belgium-p-values-nocera-saudi-pr-dark-act-monsanto-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2016\/03\/belgium-p-values-nocera-saudi-pr-dark-act-monsanto-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"Belgium, P-Values, Nocera, Saudi PR, DARK Act, Monsanto | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb The Saudi origins of Belgium’s Islamist threat http:\/\/wpo.st\/NMlO1 <\/a>  Permalink<\/a> 4:59 PM – 23 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb There is a video see feed https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0 <\/a>  @NathanBiddle Permalink<\/a> 6:47 AM – 23 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Two works in my mailbox: One Formulation of size and fragility http:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2741198&download=yes <\/a>  One Book on Antifragility http:\/\/link.springer.com\/book\/10.1007\/978-3-319-30070-2 <\/a>  Permalink<\/a> 6:13 AM – 23 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Here is the video on the metadistribution of p-values https:\/\/youtu.be\/8qrfSh07rT0 <\/a>  and the text is here: http:\/\/fooledbyrandomness.com\/pvalues.pdf <\/a>  Permalink<\/a> 7:55 PM – 22 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@davidmoore411 He’s one of few people on the internet who could insult you publicly and you’d still buy his next book. His stuff is that good. @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 6:08 PM – 22 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb OK, OK, full proof of an exact metadistribution of p-values (covers all hypotheses). Shd I do a video comment? pic.twitter.com\/YLuY3UTY1v<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:21 PM – 22 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Syrian Christians behave as Muslims in the East, Christians in the West, & are viewed as Muslims in the West and Christians in the East. Permalink<\/a> 5:26 AM – 22 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Walid Phares is a Christian Lebanese @dandrezner Permalink<\/a> 4:54 AM – 22 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb What is slowing me down w #SkinintheGame is Isocrates’ Silver Rule for Nations: Treat other nations the way you want them to treat you. Permalink<\/a> 3:26 PM – 21 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Q: Should we intervene more to “help” countries as we brilliantly did in Lybia, Iraq, Syria, Vietnam, Iran (1953)? https:\/\/twitter.com\/simon_schama\/status\/712014036993499137 <\/a>  Permalink<\/a> 2:37 PM – 21 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb “Funding” & “Investments” are the last thing you need. All you need: authenticity & risk. https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153701042473375 <\/a>  pic.twitter.com\/lMyA1wTQ56<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:34 PM – 21 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@cdipaola62 @nntaleb @NoceraNYT Definition of Irony- A writer named “Nocera” finds discussion of Primum non Nocere, unintelligible Permalink<\/a> 1:47 PM – 21 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Actually, from his name John of Damascus was not Syrian\/Aramaic, but likely to be an Arab (*Yahya* Ibn Sarjun, not Yuhanan) @iandavidmorris Permalink<\/a> 1:38 PM – 21 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 9 days is nothing. There is the 2005 pre-crisis discussion of my skepticism of models that will eventually be re-opened. @NoceraNYT Permalink<\/a> 10:29 AM – 21 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is called “first do no harm”, avoid “policies with side effects” (primum non nocere) translated: “no nocere, Nocera” @robert_cookson Permalink<\/a> 10:09 AM – 21 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If you have trouble understanding this, you really have problems. @robert_cookson http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-03-12\/nassim-taleb-sums-americas-election-17-black-swan-words <\/a>  Permalink<\/a> 9:57 AM – 21 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A journo who says “unintelligible” reveals more about his intellect than the intelligibility of the subject matter https:\/\/twitter.com\/noceranyt\/status\/708650770380546049 <\/a>  Permalink<\/a> 9:36 AM – 21 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Thanks to Scott Robeson, this is the expected pseudo-significant results <5% for true p-value @indianaclimate pic.twitter.com\/sZ1863QyzA<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 8:05 AM – 20 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Friends, the metadistribution of p-values: rewrote, looking for mistakes bef publ on ArXiv. http:\/\/fooledbyrandomness.com\/pvalues.pdf <\/a>  pic.twitter.com\/hn25LnI37C<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:08 AM – 20 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb For all his defects, more pple would like to become Trump (yacht\/American dream) rather than some reasonable-sounding hack criticizing him. Permalink<\/a> 3:05 PM – 19 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The more efficient you try to be at a given task, the more you will hate it. Permalink<\/a> 3:51 PM – 17 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@lhfang New Saudi PR effort SAPRAC led by guy who recently helped regime smear Nimr al-Nimr, gov critic they executed. pic.twitter.com\/9IbCNKDxFz<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:08 PM – 17 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb A 3% significance is really 16% @pehr_bjornbom @antitrustly @ReneMaric pic.twitter.com\/ZcQdCggnmf<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 12:31 PM – 17 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Real-world rigor (Feynman-like): bring mathematics to deeply understood problems, don’t take deeply understood mathematics to problems. Permalink<\/a> 12:00 PM – 17 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To get a real p-val of 5% you need 1.1%; 5% is ~ 26% https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/p-val.pdf <\/a>  @antitrustly @ReneMaric @BrianNosek pic.twitter.com\/EHXHV4xVvZ<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:33 AM – 17 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@yaneerbaryam Military strategy in a complex world — how antifragility undermines traditional military strategies http:\/\/www.necsi.edu\/research\/military\/strategy.html <\/a>  @nntaleb Permalink<\/a> 10:08 AM – 17 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Why didn’t anyone pull out the “p-value” of the “p-value” before? @ReneMaric @BrianNosek Permalink<\/a> 5:46 AM – 17 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Only solution: it you “really” want a p-value of .05, require .0125! @BrianNosek @ReneMaric Permalink<\/a> 5:35 AM – 17 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I mean p-values are random variables that do not necessarily reflect statistical significance. I can’t find in lit. @ReneMaric @BrianNosek Permalink<\/a> 5:26 AM – 17 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Why aren’t psychologists (@BrianNosek) aware that p-values have HUGE sampling error? #replicationcrisis https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/p-val.pdf <\/a>  Permalink<\/a> 5:19 AM – 17 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb typos pic.twitter.com\/z9BQiLlsQp<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:41 PM – 16 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb On plane proof p-values are extremely random\/volatile & explicit variance as function of n. https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/p-val.pdf <\/a>  pic.twitter.com\/IYIN215S3a<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:34 PM – 16 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Evidence based? That is ignorant BS. Anti-GMO is scientific scrutiny. https:\/\/twitter.com\/NinjaEconomics\/status\/710263345153093632 <\/a>  Permalink<\/a> 6:08 PM – 16 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Experiment: Farro w\/ squid ink. pic.twitter.com\/Qzzkxud18w<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 5:18 PM – 16 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb People are so concerned about my age. pic.twitter.com\/JHXlNBinkr<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:57 PM – 16 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Victory! Senate Rejects the DARK Act http:\/\/ecowatch.com\/2016\/03\/16\/senate-rejects-dark-act-gmo-labeling\/ <\/a>  via ecowatch Permalink<\/a> 2:19 PM – 16 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This is the kind of BS people clueless about tail risk utter. Farmers’ modifications belong to a narrow basin. https:\/\/twitter.com\/neiltyson\/status\/710093894847959040 <\/a>  Permalink<\/a> 1:45 PM – 16 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Heuristic: when in a hotel for the very first time, reject the first room they give you. Permalink<\/a> 5:49 AM – 16 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Monsanto forces farmers to bear all the liability for its seeds, making itself immune to adverse consequences. pic.twitter.com\/khRh3Sff1J<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 1:48 AM – 15 Mar 2016<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb The Saudi origins of Belgium’s Islamist threat http:\/\/wpo.st\/NMlO1   Permalink 4:59 PM – 23 Mar 2016 @nntaleb There is a video see feed https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=8qrfSh07rT0   @NathanBiddle Permalink 6:47 AM – 23 Mar 2016 @nntaleb Two works in my mailbox: One Formulation of size and fragility http:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2741198&download=yes   One Book on Antifragility http:\/\/link.springer.com\/book\/10.1007\/978-3-319-30070-2   Permalink […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1232,1035,823,1233,1226,1234],"class_list":["post-8338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-belgium","tag-dark-act","tag-monsanto","tag-nocera","tag-p-values","tag-saudi-pr"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8338","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8338"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8338\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8341,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8338\/revisions\/8341"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8338"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8338"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8338"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}