{"id":8331,"date":"2016-03-14T23:42:27","date_gmt":"2016-03-15T06:42:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8331"},"modified":"2016-03-14T23:42:27","modified_gmt":"2016-03-15T06:42:27","slug":"p-values-trump-maximum-entropy-methods-kahneman-lindy-effect-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2016\/03\/p-values-trump-maximum-entropy-methods-kahneman-lindy-effect-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"P-Values, Trump, Maximum Entropy Methods, Kahneman, Lindy Effect | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb In addition to the metadistribution of p-values, a technique for large scale simulations via Radon-Nikodym deriv https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/Radon%20Nikodym%20Monte%20Carlo.nb.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:23 PM – 14 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Sicilian squid ink at Taormina in London. pic.twitter.com\/OIzC6vojNq<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 6:29 AM – 14 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Some people, when they change language, if they don’t have an accent in it, also change personality. Permalink<\/a> 4:57 AM – 14 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I don’t take face value @limitlesskait @realDonaldTrump @nytimes Permalink<\/a> 12:08 PM – 13 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Donaldo, tell us something we don’t know. BTW,Trump wass loved by his butlers while Hillary was hated by bodyguards. https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/709089928324489216 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:03 PM – 13 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Proud of being gentle with the waiter & tough with powerful ass***les rather than reverse. https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/johnfaithful.hamer\/posts\/10153499619627683?pnref=story <\/a>\u00a0 pic.twitter.com\/sdCggdk3D7<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 11:28 AM – 13 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The metadistribution of the p-value and the #replicationcrisis https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/p-val.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 8:22 AM – 13 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb To summarize from above, P-values are highly stochastic and the metadistribution is not factored in. Compiling notes. #replicationcrisis Permalink<\/a> 7:58 AM – 13 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@ModeledBehavior Scary final act twist would be Trump successfully runs to the middle & before it’s too late Democrats realize he’s burning down both parties Permalink<\/a> 7:05 AM – 13 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb (cont) More rigorous proof via Maximum Entropy Methods give a truncated exponential that mimics a beta. pic.twitter.com\/caKFyoYtq1<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 7:02 AM – 13 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Answer to QUIZ du JOUR: The Distribution of a P-Value. Psychologists seem to ignore p is stochastic! pic.twitter.com\/wWnYkB4SEk<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 3:05 AM – 13 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Reader:”I have read all your books. How do you recommend an average young man navigate the modern world? “. Me:”Never ask a vague question”. Permalink<\/a> 1:25 AM – 13 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb QUIZ DU JOUR. What is the probabilisty distribution of a P-Value? (may be offline for 16 hours please put answer in tweet) Permalink<\/a> 3:09 PM – 12 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb 1) You remove segment of samples and redo P-Values to ensure stability:ignore P, it is its fragility (convexity) @learnfromerror @alxpr1c3 Permalink<\/a> 3:02 PM – 12 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The only solid use I found for P-Values is a test of robustness across jacknife (here 1-p) @learnfromerror @alxpr1c3 pic.twitter.com\/1k3Yko2wyl<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2:54 PM – 12 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb My catalogue of how what is robust in psychology today needs to abide by #LindyEffect https:\/\/twitter.com\/VergilDen\/status\/708776124441042946 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2:08 PM – 12 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@zerohedge Nassim Taleb Sums Up America’s Election In 17 “Black Swan” Words http:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/news\/2016-03-12\/nassim-taleb-sums-americas-election-17-black-swan-words <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 12:36 PM – 12 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Kahneman is exceptionally scientific as work matches the #LindyEffect . I don’t see him as a psychologist but a decision-theorist. @RiberJan Permalink<\/a> 12:32 PM – 12 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It turned out Mr Waugh was spreading rumors of “climate denial” in 2009 & he will not escape. @neilchriss @paulwaugh @PCollinsTimes Permalink<\/a> 12:00 PM – 12 Mar 2016<\/p>\n

@aral Abject moral failure illustrated in 140 characters. https:\/\/twitter.com\/JohnKerry\/status\/708368631508262913 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 6:38 AM – 12 Mar 2016<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb In addition to the metadistribution of p-values, a technique for large scale simulations via Radon-Nikodym deriv https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/Radon%20Nikodym%20Monte%20Carlo.nb.pdf \u00a0 Permalink 12:23 PM – 14 Mar 2016 @nntaleb Sicilian squid ink at Taormina in London. pic.twitter.com\/OIzC6vojNq Permalink 6:29 AM – 14 Mar 2016 @nntaleb Some people, when they change language, if they don’t have an accent […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1228,640,1227,1226,1034],"class_list":["post-8331","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-kahneman","tag-lindy-effect","tag-maximum-entropy-methods","tag-p-values","tag-trump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8331","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8331"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8331\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8332,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8331\/revisions\/8332"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8331"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8331"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8331"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}