{"id":8268,"date":"2016-02-09T23:41:29","date_gmt":"2016-02-10T07:41:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8268"},"modified":"2016-02-09T23:41:29","modified_gmt":"2016-02-10T07:41:29","slug":"2-country-paradox-devaluation-deutsche-bank-law-of-large-numbers-under-fat-tails-charles-eugster-twitter","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2016\/02\/2-country-paradox-devaluation-deutsche-bank-law-of-large-numbers-under-fat-tails-charles-eugster-twitter\/","title":{"rendered":"2-Country Paradox, Devaluation, Deutsche Bank, Law of Large Numbers Under Fat Tails, Charles Eugster | Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb The certificate in Real World Risk Management: the decision of this month that required the most effort. pic.twitter.com\/zt895wZt4Q<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 15:14:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Dottore Borghi don’t be upset but as FX deriv traders we banned trainees from talking to economists
\n@borghi_claudio @1svensktiger @went1955 Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 14:58:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb This proves IMF bureaucrats make BASIC math errors. I tolerate errors in Italy because of the food. @borghi_claudio @1svensktiger @went1955 Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 14:36:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Incorrect. A currency “appreciates” by 100% its inverse will “depreciate” by 50%@borghi_claudio @LorenzoWVilla @braveheartmmt @went1955 Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 14:29:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb When you change the sign you ALSO change the quantity (+150% <=> -60%). ELEMENTARY! @borghi_claudio @LorenzoWVilla @braveheartmmt @went1955 Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 14:21:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No wonder with such confusion economists blow up when they trade currencies. @borghi_claudio @EVonHoccheim @1svensktiger Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 14:15:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb No, laws of mathematics are UNIQUE, except for BS vendors and economists. @borghi_claudio @EVonHoccheim @1svensktiger Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 14:13:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Devaluation for a currency != – reevaluation for another. See my text @1svensktiger @borghi_claudio @went1955 @lello_mascetti_ @a_presbitero Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 14:06:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb It is deceiving & sensationalizing journalism to say 150% when it is only 60%. @felixsalmon @went1955 @NakedKeynes Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 13:55:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Which brings us to the 2-country paradox (Dynamic Hedg)
\nhttps:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/twocountryparadox.pdf <\/a>
\n@felixsalmon @went1955 @NakedKeynes pic.twitter.com\/rpr28LaYJn<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 13:42:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb That is what I would call a 60% devaluation of the currency. @felixsalmon @went1955 @NakedKeynes Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 13:28:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Someone needs to explain to me very, very slowly what -150% means. I promise to listen calmly, without interrupting. https:\/\/twitter.com\/went1955\/status\/697166056301977600 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 13:20:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I had no concern over Deutsche B until the German Finance Minister stated we should have no concern over Deutsche B pic.twitter.com\/w4YRC0fC8F<\/a> Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 08:08:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb I can tell the market is down & anxiety is high, without looking on the screen, when that day I am not trolled by finance people. Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 05:49:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Finally completed the “law of large numbers under fat tails”.
\nhttps:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/LargeN.pdf <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 04:04:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Look at the video of CHarles Eugster: much sharper at 94 (now 96) http:\/\/www.charleseugster.net\/videos <\/a>
\n@Pete_Spence Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-09 03:30:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Winning an argument on twitter is equivalent to being victorious in a debate on a barge in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-08 10:54:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb The Obama era is one of crony capitalism: Geithner blocked the punishment of JP Morgan, now paid for it. No! https:\/\/twitter.com\/jamessaft\/status\/696714204800270336 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-08 07:25:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb Tell Hillary to give back the $335,000 she received from Monsanto’s top GMO lobby group – http%3A%2F%http:\/\/2Fwww.fooddemocracynow.org <\/a>\u00a0%2Fnode%2F3432 Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-08 07:04:00<\/p>\n

@nntaleb If the word “Risk” comes from Arabic, then it comes from Aramaic; root means “share” or “portion” (of property).
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/696304516405264384 <\/a>\u00a0 Permalink<\/a> 2016-02-08 04:36:00<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

@nntaleb The certificate in Real World Risk Management: the decision of this month that required the most effort. pic.twitter.com\/zt895wZt4Q Permalink 2016-02-09 15:14:00 @nntaleb Dottore Borghi don’t be upset but as FX deriv traders we banned trainees from talking to economists @borghi_claudio @1svensktiger @went1955 Permalink 2016-02-09 14:58:00 @nntaleb This proves IMF bureaucrats make BASIC math errors. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[53],"tags":[1182,1186,1184,1183,1185],"class_list":["post-8268","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-twitter","tag-2-country-paradox","tag-charles-eugster","tag-deutsche-bank","tag-devaluation","tag-law-of-large-numbers-under-fat-tails"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8268","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8268"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8268\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8272,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8268\/revisions\/8272"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8268"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8268"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8268"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}