{"id":8186,"date":"2015-12-28T14:36:00","date_gmt":"2015-12-28T22:36:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8186"},"modified":"2015-12-28T14:36:00","modified_gmt":"2015-12-28T22:36:00","slug":"silent-risk-pascals-wager-baal-skin-in-the-game-trump-clinton-malmaison-gary-ruskin-popper","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2015\/12\/silent-risk-pascals-wager-baal-skin-in-the-game-trump-clinton-malmaison-gary-ruskin-popper\/","title":{"rendered":"Silent Risk, Pascal&#8217;s Wager, Baal, Skin In the Game, Trump, Clinton-Malmaison, Gary Ruskin, Popper"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153513194193375\" target=\"_blank\">AN INVITATION TO CONTRIBUTE<\/a> (Facebook)<br \/>\nFriends, I promised to deliver in the next few hours a discussion of the most neglected fragilities and the most overestimated risks. We can tell fragility when we see it&#8230; but we first need to look at it.<\/p>\n<p>I won&#8217;t say for now what I came up with but would love for you to contribute suggestions. Don&#8217;t be shy, don&#8217;t be afraid to be out there, but please observe salon rules. And, for Baal&#8217;s sake, let&#8217;s all be brief.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/681574436768722944<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/681562381412102146<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/681482579313324032<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/681153169313935360<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/681128896952164352<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/photos\/a.10150109720973375.279515.13012333374\/10153510591628375\/?type=3\" target=\"_blank\">Friends, we made a page for the precautionary principle<\/a> (Facbook) with application to GMOs, with a variety of articles.<\/p>\n<p>1) It looks like PR promoters\/smear campaigners are so dumb that they don&#8217;t know that we know that they are dumb.<\/p>\n<p>2) Calling GMOs &#8220;transgenics&#8221; (moving genes from one organism to a different one) better reflects their nature as genetic modification is too vague a designation.<\/p>\n<div class=\"text_exposed_show\">\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/l.facebook.com\/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Ffooledbyrandomness.com%2FPrecautionaryPrinciple.html&amp;h=zAQEkxEDVAQGEDuJ9vskxk2v5OLIM9VasRgXcGygk1Q7yDA&amp;enc=AZNAzuPgtU3uoT8JRSwHfmSbTq4uf-5uEVge8_HveFgSoQl4JLdA0_0yQjkCKBMlmzrXv02WMhnoL7QTWF2VRszEjaynFYF0rGMRf-lHEr3XiYwlKU0rGnZUylZIaUMvxCkDbNOnBT-37QKuG8HSm0zzJ5ySkBe_q1hcxJvtjkKhYijtJm3GDoNZzdhMBRv8mkcYI9fkQGSHHVotVS-v3oeY&amp;s=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/fooledbyrandomness.com\/PrecautionaryPrinciple.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/680879127457624064<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/680843010389741568<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/680738137237229568<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/680465658807738368<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/680403721361162240<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/680368473663520768<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/680368178317389824<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/680063562065276929<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153504707368375\" target=\"_blank\">What I think is my central piece from *Skin in the Game*<\/a> (Facebook) explaining risk-loving and precaution can live together, how risk taking has a distinct logic (similar to quantum logic)&#8230; Risk management is boring, risk taking is exciting; how the two can be reconciled. How can we reconcile Aristotelian precaution and courage, both considered virtues?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/rationality.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/rationality.pdf<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/679701305154244610<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153502767698375\" target=\"_blank\">A book isn&#8217;t just its contents; it&#8217;s a state of mind<\/a>. (Facebook)<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nNote: Without a state of mind, a book never survives. Also note that *almost* no book from 15 years ago has survived.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@nntaleb<\/a> Did you just coin Clinton-Malmaison? (Malmaison : a chateau where napoleon&#39;s repudiated first wife lived). Excellent! tres fort!<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; DePaul (@pauld198) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/pauld198\/status\/679448712758730752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 22, 2015<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/679357806407995392<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/679336090583629824<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/679273397340217344<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/679092660427206656<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/679091924859543552<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/679006823228284929<\/p>\n<blockquote><p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153498576918375\" target=\"_blank\">Friends, this is technical<\/a>. (Facebook) Here is the &#8220;Statistical Estimators Under Fat Tails Project&#8221; and my small contribution to it during 2015 (7 papers). One can see that very little has been done to understand random events under Extremistan and there is a lot, a lot to do.<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/FatTailedpapers2015.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/FatTailedpapers2015.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153498456628375\" target=\"_blank\">Social networks are a great place for convex optionality<\/a>. (Facebook) In 2015, I met three collaborators, two co-authors (one probabilist, one economist who specializes in inequality) and one business partner on Twitter (a partner with the Real World Risk Institute). I do not think that I would have been able to initially run into these three collaborators in the physical world, no matter how many parties I had attended (I attended a lot, a lot of parties in 2015). You can tell from people&#8217;s twitter conversation whether there can be a possible technical collaboration.<\/p>\n<p>Ironically these technical matches revealed themselves through arguments during fights in my antiBS crusades (such as the Pinker-BS problem). Social life (physical, that is) is too harmonious, too devoid of fights and arguments for some skills to be made apparent.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>AN INVITATION TO CONTRIBUTE (Facebook) Friends, I promised to deliver in the next few hours a discussion of the most neglected fragilities and the most overestimated risks. We can tell fragility when we see it&#8230; but we first need to look at it. I won&#8217;t say for now what I came up with but would [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,53],"tags":[1155,1156,1157,1154,1042,810,460,1034],"class_list":["post-8186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook","category-twitter","tag-baal","tag-clinton-malmaison","tag-gary-ruskin","tag-pascals-wager","tag-popper","tag-silent-risk","tag-skin-in-the-game","tag-trump"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8186","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8186"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8186\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8190,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8186\/revisions\/8190"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8186"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8186"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8186"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}