{"id":8181,"date":"2015-12-20T15:54:19","date_gmt":"2015-12-20T23:54:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=8181"},"modified":"2015-12-20T15:54:19","modified_gmt":"2015-12-20T23:54:19","slug":"convex-optionality-fat-tails-antifragile-math-puzzle-gmos-risk-minds-smear-campaigns-eggplant","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2015\/12\/convex-optionality-fat-tails-antifragile-math-puzzle-gmos-risk-minds-smear-campaigns-eggplant\/","title":{"rendered":"Convex Optionality, Fat Tails, Antifragile, Math Puzzle, GMOs, Risk Minds, Smear Campaigns, Eggplant"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/678699317947965440<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/678591601904611328<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/678585897965744128<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/678237107375243265<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/678229789329645568<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153489660003375\" target=\"_blank\">Let me rephrase the point of Antifragile<\/a> (via Facebook) and put some clarity in the discussions. The idea is to be chance, &#8220;risk&#8221;, and uncertainty loving where chance, &#8220;risk&#8221; and uncertainty are beneficial, and risk averse in domains with ruin problems.<\/p>\n<p>The ancients understood how both courage and prudence were virtues, and how there was no incompatibility between the two &#8211;simply they didn&#8217;t apply to the same domain. (More on that, soon).<\/p>\n<p>The &#8220;verbalistic&#8221; takes over rather quickly. Many p<span class=\"text_exposed_show\">eople don&#8217;t nuance risk properly, especially when educated: they conflate it with variations and think that *exposure to ruin* and *risk taking* belong to the same category. They are not the same animal. Concave is not convex, fragile is not antifragile; fat tails are not thin tails, etc.<\/span><\/p>\n<div class=\"text_exposed_show\">\n<p>What I just wrote seems trivial, but if you take a look at the not yet dismissed &#8220;scholarly&#8221; but in fact verbalistic and verbose literature (Cass Susstein-style, particularly about &#8220;nudging&#8221;), it seems largely resting on ill-defined terms and conflated concepts. We keep seeing bigwigs conflating Ebola with falling from ladders, GMOs with agriculture, etc., leading to misdefinition of rationality.<\/p>\n<p>Just a brief stop for some clarity. Have a nice weekend.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153488144573375\" target=\"_blank\">People can only be social friends if<\/a> (via Facebook) they don&#8217;t ty to outsmart one another. Indeed, the classical art of conversation is to avoid any imbalance as in Baldassare Castiglione&#8217;s Book of the Courtier: people need to be equal, at least for the purpose of the conversation, otherwise it fails. It has to be hierarchy free and equal in contribution. You&#8217;d rather have dinner with your friends than with your professor, unless of course your professor understands &#8220;the art&#8221; of the conversation.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, one can generalize and define a community as a space within which many rules of competition and hierarchy are lifted, where the collective prevails over one&#8217;s interest. Of course there will be tension with the outside, but that&#8217;s another discussion. This idea of competition lifted within a group or a tribe was the idea of the late Elenor Ostrom.<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/676770596471111682<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/676751350693306368<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/676476899636477952<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/676474639468650496<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/676176565663846401<\/p>\n<div class=\"_1dwg\">\n<div id=\"js_2\" class=\"_5pbx userContent\" data-ft=\"{&quot;tn&quot;:&quot;K&quot;}\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153479482373375\" target=\"_blank\">This is brilliant!<\/a> (via Facebook)<br \/>\nI swallow my reluctance to TED and TEDx to show this wonderful message on how fake grassroots are built on social media and&#8230;how easy it is to spot!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"_3x-2\">\n<div data-ft=\"{&quot;tn&quot;:&quot;H&quot;}\">\n<div class=\"mtm\">\n<div id=\"u_0_w\" class=\"_6m2 _1zpr clearfix _dcs _4_w4 _5cwb\" data-ft=\"{&quot;tn&quot;:&quot;H&quot;}\">\n<div class=\"clearfix _2r3x\">\n<div class=\"lfloat _ohe\">\n<div class=\"_6ks\" data-ft=\"{&quot;tn&quot;:&quot;F&quot;}\">\n<div id=\"u_0_x\">\n<div class=\"uiScaledImageContainer _6m5 fbStoryAttachmentImage\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"scaledImageFitWidth img\" src=\"https:\/\/external-sjc2-1.xx.fbcdn.net\/safe_image.php?d=AQB_tEypqnbRpqlT&amp;w=158&amp;h=158&amp;url=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F-bYAQ-ZZtEU%2Fmaxresdefault.jpg&amp;cfs=1&amp;upscale=1&amp;sx=154&amp;sy=0&amp;sw=791&amp;sh=791\" alt=\"\" width=\"158\" height=\"158\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"_42ef\">\n<div class=\"_3ekx\" data-ft=\"{&quot;tn&quot;:&quot;*J&quot;}\">\n<div class=\"_6m3\">\n<div class=\"mbs _6m6\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=-bYAQ-ZZtEU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Astroturf and manipulation of media messages | Sharyl Attkisson | TEDxUniversityofNevada<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"_6m7\">In this eye-opening talk, veteran investigative journalist Sharyl Attkisson shows how astroturf, or\u2026<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div id=\"u_0_12\"><\/div>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/676023976167129090<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/676009006478041088<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/dl.dropboxusercontent.com\/u\/50282823\/ICBI-short.m4a\" target=\"_blank\">Audio<\/a><\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/675808527877808129<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;-<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153477499743375\" target=\"_blank\">Friends, Ralph Nader called me recently<\/a> (via Facebook) to warn me that I was going to be subjected to a smear campaign by Monsanto and friends, throwing anything they can to undermine my credibility, &#8220;throwing everything except the kitchen sink&#8221;. They care so much about their business there is nothing they wouldn&#8217;t throw at me. Nothing. He, himself, was subjected to a nasty smear campaign by GM fifty years ago.<\/p>\n<p>Fughedabout the &#8220;victim&#8221; business. And it is not about enemies building you up, that&#8217;s not the point. There a *real thrill* feeling that you are risking something for your ideas. The more risk, the more skin-in-the-game, the more thrill.<\/p>\n<p>The more they attack you, the more skin-in-the-game, the more you feel honorable. I cannot describe the sentiment: all I can say is that it is the exact opposite of shame.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;<\/p>\n<div id=\"js_2\" class=\"_5pbx userContent\" data-ft=\"{&quot;tn&quot;:&quot;K&quot;}\">\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/nntaleb\/posts\/10153474813738375\" target=\"_blank\">Thanks all for the help<\/a>, (via Facebook) the persistence, and the unwavering fight against BS vending. Looks like our precautionary principle paper was used as back-up for the decision by the supreme court of the Philippines against GMOs.<\/p>\n<p>People get rigorous arguments; trying to repress truth and logic is like trying to keep a balloon under water, or Fat Tony away from the fridge.<\/p>\n<p>Looks like a combination of persistence and &#8230; f*** you money (which I repeat is is not about money but the moral attitude towards bullying authorities) works.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/l.facebook.com\/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.globalresearch.ca%2Fsupreme-court-of-philippines-confirms-genetically-modified-gm-eggplant-ban%2F5495025&amp;h=2AQH4WgggAQEQLDItZ33FhnrAfXc_9w3utHPyzkQ8ubBv3Q&amp;enc=AZOXslVoVXYaOxPbYytsv9a-vfL1gwwmOErnU3QiGmTsDoZW5Ymx6MEQBAjbeSUzqV6Ds-Gs3_bKwVCzjx0lAZaXEGK23VEae9ionCTwL9E5FUaIUVRZJ36rxXMdjoeDtiOpL1ppJasgGH5oKAzPlDIpmVxrRwtuk4upulxtpM1RWBuYuer8Idcm0TXv0ewZors&amp;s=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/www.globalresearch.ca\/supreme-court-of-phili\u2026\/5495025<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"_3x-2\">\n<div data-ft=\"{&quot;tn&quot;:&quot;H&quot;}\">\n<div class=\"mtm\">\n<div id=\"u_0_w\" class=\"_6m2 _1zpr clearfix _dcs _4_w4 _59ap\" data-ft=\"{&quot;tn&quot;:&quot;H&quot;}\">\n<div class=\"clearfix _2r3x\">\n<div class=\"lfloat _ohe\">\n<div class=\"_6ks\">\n<div class=\"_6l- __c_\">\n<div class=\"uiScaledImageContainer _6m5 fbStoryAttachmentImage\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"scaledImageFitWidth img\" src=\"https:\/\/external-sjc2-1.xx.fbcdn.net\/safe_image.php?d=AQA7vyDTTdUc9qss&amp;w=470&amp;h=246&amp;url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.globalresearch.ca%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2015%2F12%2Ffood-eggplant-dna-gmo-735-350.jpg&amp;cfs=1&amp;upscale=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"470\" height=\"246\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"_3ekx\">\n<div class=\"_6m3\">\n<div class=\"mbs _6m6\"><a href=\"http:\/\/l.facebook.com\/l.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.globalresearch.ca%2Fsupreme-court-of-philippines-confirms-genetically-modified-gm-eggplant-ban%2F5495025&amp;h=rAQG1M0k5&amp;enc=AZOgOTKx3p4yp5VltIRUc3b2v4etpClqhNC6Bxrwtx0cjq8_DrmY2VSmMqFNIB4g-ZUlffy-r-Ay8ZXaX2a8kw-Z9Bv7W5jLBNmQmxNvvlBuDosG0A5WfCehwxFeo83hjIjH5JhZnI1bq0MHlPtaw2H1Z97eHkYvizrSuM9WebzYLt4uNItwdayR3hsmvNVlucw&amp;s=1\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow\">Supreme Court of Philippines Confirms Genetically Modified (GM) Eggplant Ban<\/a><\/div>\n<div class=\"_6m7\">The Philippines Supreme Court permanently halted the field testing for genetically modified eggplant, Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis), upholding the decision of the Court\u2026<\/div>\n<div class=\"_59tj\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/678699317947965440 https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/678591601904611328 https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/678585897965744128 https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/678237107375243265 https:\/\/twitter.com\/nntaleb\/status\/678229789329645568 Let me rephrase the point of Antifragile (via Facebook) and put some clarity in the discussions. The idea is to be chance, &#8220;risk&#8221;, and uncertainty loving where chance, &#8220;risk&#8221; and uncertainty are beneficial, and risk averse in domains with ruin problems. The ancients understood how both courage and prudence were [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,53],"tags":[1070,1148,1152,276,791,1149,1150,1151],"class_list":["post-8181","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook","category-twitter","tag-antifragile","tag-convex-optionality","tag-eggplant","tag-fat-tails","tag-gmos","tag-math-puzzle","tag-risk-minds","tag-smear-campaigns"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8181","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8181"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8181\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8184,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8181\/revisions\/8184"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8181"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8181"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8181"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}