{"id":7787,"date":"2015-05-18T11:58:13","date_gmt":"2015-05-18T18:58:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=7787"},"modified":"2015-05-23T11:17:02","modified_gmt":"2015-05-23T18:17:02","slug":"is-the-world-getting-safer-maybe-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2015\/05\/is-the-world-getting-safer-maybe-not\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the World Getting Safer? Maybe Not | Bloomberg"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>To get a clearer sense of what\u2019s really going on, the statistician Pasquale Cirillo, working alongside Nassim Taleb of &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness\/dp\/081297381X\" data-web-url=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/The-Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness\/dp\/081297381X\">The\u00a0Black Swan<\/a>&#8221; fame, did an <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/violence.pdf\" data-web-url=\"http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/violence.pdf\">analysis<\/a> using extreme value theory &#8212; a branch of mathematics specifically designed for such problems. Looking at war data over 2,000 years, they found that violent conflicts have fatter tails than earthquakes and markets, suggesting an even more profound tendency to extremes. \u201cHistory as seen from tail analysis,\u201d Cirillo and Taleb conclude, \u201cis far more risky, and conflicts far more violent than acknowledged by naive observation.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.bloombergview.com\/articles\/2015-05-18\/is-the-world-getting-safer-maybe-not\" target=\"_blank\">Is the World Getting Safer? Maybe Not<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>To get a clearer sense of what\u2019s really going on, the statistician Pasquale Cirillo, working alongside Nassim Taleb of &#8220;The\u00a0Black Swan&#8221; fame, did an analysis using extreme value theory &#8212; a branch of mathematics specifically designed for such problems. Looking at war data over 2,000 years, they found that violent conflicts have fatter tails than [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[962,961,960],"class_list":["post-7787","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors","tag-mark-buchanan","tag-pasquale-cirillo","tag-violence"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7787","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7787"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7787\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7794,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7787\/revisions\/7794"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7787"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7787"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7787"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}