{"id":7784,"date":"2015-05-18T11:53:20","date_gmt":"2015-05-18T18:53:20","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=7784"},"modified":"2015-05-23T11:18:01","modified_gmt":"2015-05-23T18:18:01","slug":"violent-warfare-is-on-the-wane-right","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2015\/05\/violent-warfare-is-on-the-wane-right\/","title":{"rendered":"Violent warfare is on the wane, right? | Mark Buchanan"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>That has now changed. Just today, Taleb, writing with another mathematician, Pasquale Cirillo, has released <a class=\"markup--anchor markup--p-anchor\" href=\"http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/violence.pdf\" rel=\"nofollow\" data-href=\"http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/violence.pdf\">a detailed analysis<\/a> of the statistics of violent warfare going back some 2000 years, with an emphasis on the properties of the tails of the distribution\u200a\u2014\u200athe likelihood of the most extreme events. I\u2019ve written a short Bloomberg piece on the new paper, and wanted to offer a few more technical details here. The analysis, I think, goes a long way to making clear why we are so ill-prepared to think clearly about processes governed by fat tails, and so prone to falling into interpretive error. Moreover, it strongly suggests that hopes of a future with significantly less war are NOT supported by anything in the recent trend of conflict infrequency. The optimists are fooling themselves.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/bull-market\/violent-warfare-is-on-the-wane-right-99223faa45e6\" target=\"_blank\">Violent warfare is on the wane, right?<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>That has now changed. Just today, Taleb, writing with another mathematician, Pasquale Cirillo, has released a detailed analysis of the statistics of violent warfare going back some 2000 years, with an emphasis on the properties of the tails of the distribution\u200a\u2014\u200athe likelihood of the most extreme events. I\u2019ve written a short Bloomberg piece on the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[962,961,960],"class_list":["post-7784","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors","tag-mark-buchanan","tag-pasquale-cirillo","tag-violence"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7784","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7784"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7784\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7795,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7784\/revisions\/7795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7784"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7784"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7784"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}