{"id":7532,"date":"2015-02-13T20:51:23","date_gmt":"2015-02-14T04:51:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=7532"},"modified":"2015-02-13T20:51:23","modified_gmt":"2015-02-14T04:51:23","slug":"for-comments-it-takes-time-for-things-to-break","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2015\/02\/for-comments-it-takes-time-for-things-to-break\/","title":{"rendered":"For comments: It takes time for things to break&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>For comments:<br \/>\nIt takes time for things to break, but they eventually break, &amp; there should be no rush although our impulse is to think that they will collapse immediately after we become aware of the problem. Give things time&#8230; 3 to 8 years in today&#8217;s complex system. By definition the fragile cannot be selfsustaining as the probability of a collapse increases with time.<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nWe had to wait 4 years for Fannie Mae to go bust (after detection of their fragility), but it did go bust; 5 years for Syria to blow up, but it did; bankers are losing power 5 years after the crisis. We thought in 2009 that the econ establishment would be discredited and&#8230; it is starting to happen about 5 years later. We thought in 2010 that the Greeks would be in the streets and here they are&#8230;<br \/>\n&#8212;<br \/>\nSo what&#8217;s on the list (of the unsustainably fragile)? For me, Saudi Arabia, Elsevier\/Wiley (academic publishing will be Uberized), the Fed&#8217;s monopoly, Monsanto, bureaucrats in Europe w\/lifetime employment, Oligarchs, etc.Please be specific, avoid the vague and the general.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/permalink.php?story_fbid=10152817705893375&amp;id=13012333374\">For comments: It takes time for things&#8230; &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For comments: It takes time for things to break, but they eventually break, &amp; there should be no rush although our impulse is to think that they will collapse immediately after we become aware of the problem. Give things time&#8230; 3 to 8 years in today&#8217;s complex system. By definition the fragile cannot be selfsustaining [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[145],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7532","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7532","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7532"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7532\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7534,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7532\/revisions\/7534"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7532"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7532"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7532"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}