{"id":7478,"date":"2015-01-27T10:31:03","date_gmt":"2015-01-27T18:31:03","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=7478"},"modified":"2015-01-27T10:31:03","modified_gmt":"2015-01-27T18:31:03","slug":"another-problem-of-averaging-under-convexity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2015\/01\/another-problem-of-averaging-under-convexity\/","title":{"rendered":"Another problem of averaging under convexity&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>Another problem of averaging under convexity. Traditionally we have had *on average* slightly more than 2 children per woman (net of child mortality), which is the rate people converge to today. Except that in the past ~2 out of 10 children survived, today 2 out of 2. It means that we no longer have selection at work, since survival was not random. And, further, there was a high variance between women: some had no surviving children, others had many (for the same overall average).<\/p>\n<p>So, clearly the world today is better, fairer, with equal opportunity to survive and be survived. But we cannot compare evolutionary processes to those of the past.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/permalink.php?story_fbid=10152782891908375&amp;id=13012333374\">Another problem of averaging under&#8230; &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Another problem of averaging under convexity. Traditionally we have had *on average* slightly more than 2 children per woman (net of child mortality), which is the rate people converge to today. Except that in the past ~2 out of 10 children survived, today 2 out of 2. It means that we no longer have selection [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[145],"tags":[873,466],"class_list":["post-7478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook","tag-averaging","tag-convexity"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7478","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7478"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7478\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7480,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7478\/revisions\/7480"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7478"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7478"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7478"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}