{"id":7381,"date":"2014-12-16T19:37:47","date_gmt":"2014-12-17T03:37:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=7381"},"modified":"2014-12-16T19:37:47","modified_gmt":"2014-12-17T03:37:47","slug":"nassim-taleb-on-the-calm-before-the-storm-valuewalk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2014\/12\/nassim-taleb-on-the-calm-before-the-storm-valuewalk\/","title":{"rendered":"Nassim Taleb On The Calm Before the Storm | ValueWalk"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>A new article by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Gregory F. Treverton appearing in the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/articles\/142494\/nassim-nicholas-taleb-and-gregory-f-treverton%E2%80%A8\/the-calm-before-the-storm\" target=\"_blank\">January\/February 2015 issue of Foreign Affairs<\/a> reminds us that things are not always what they seem, especially when it comes to human nature, culture and group dynamics. Taleb and Treverton argue that despite appearances, strong, centralized governments with minimal political variability like those of Saudi Arabia and Egypt are actually more \u201cfragile\u201d than decentralized, politically diverse countries such as Italy or Lebanon.<\/p>\n<p>Taleb \u2013 Five sources of national fragility<\/p>\n<p>According to the authors, fragility for nations derives from five main sources: a centralized government, a \u201cone trick pony\u201d economy, high debt and leverage, a lack of political diversity, and lack of experience with dealing with shocks in the past.<\/p>\n<p>Taleb and Treverton highlight that \u201cApplying these criteria, the world map looks a lot different. Disorderly regimes come out as safer bets than commonly thought\u2014and seemingly placid states turn out to be ticking time bombs.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.valuewalk.com\/2014\/12\/nassim-taleb-foreign-affairs\/\">Nassim Taleb On The Calm Before the Storm<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A new article by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Gregory F. Treverton appearing in the January\/February 2015 issue of Foreign Affairs reminds us that things are not always what they seem, especially when it comes to human nature, culture and group dynamics. Taleb and Treverton argue that despite appearances, strong, centralized governments with minimal political variability [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7381","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7381","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7381"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7381\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7383,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7381\/revisions\/7383"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7381"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7381"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7381"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}