{"id":6740,"date":"2014-04-07T01:04:38","date_gmt":"2014-04-07T08:04:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=6740"},"modified":"2014-04-07T01:04:38","modified_gmt":"2014-04-07T08:04:38","slug":"all-the-education-in-the-world-will-not-compensate-for-a-logical-fallacy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2014\/04\/all-the-education-in-the-world-will-not-compensate-for-a-logical-fallacy\/","title":{"rendered":"All the education in the world will not compensate for a logical fallacy&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote>\n<p>All the education in the world will not compensate for a logical fallacy, of the style: &#8220;All members of the Smith family are tall; he is tall *hence* he is a member of the Smith family&#8221;, the central error in Fooled by Randomness (and the main reason for underestimation of luck).<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>For, I am unhappy to report, many people make it in real life, along with its variations. Further, this is not just journalism: I saw it made just so frequently by PhDs (in the GMO and Pinker debates) that I am totally disgusted: better be a truck driver with logical abilities, than a PhD with such elementary defects. Indeed it is so prevalent in social science it is not even funny.<\/p>\n<p>&#8212;<\/p>\n<p>Finally, I find it horrifying that people make it here on this page (these people are now gone). Forget all the complicated stuff, focus on the elementary, the basic, for Baal&#8217;s sake.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Affirming_the_consequent\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Affirming_the_consequent<\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Affirming the consequent &#8211; Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Affirming the consequent, sometimes called converse error or fallacy of the converse, is a formal fallacy of inferring the converse from the original statement. The corresponding argument has the general form:<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/permalink.php?story_fbid=10152129770003375&amp;id=13012333374\">All the education in the world will not&#8230; &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>All the education in the world will not compensate for a logical fallacy, of the style: &#8220;All members of the Smith family are tall; he is tall *hence* he is a member of the Smith family&#8221;, the central error in Fooled by Randomness (and the main reason for underestimation of luck). &#8212; For, I am [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[145],"tags":[794],"class_list":["post-6740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook","tag-logical-fallacy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6740","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6740"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6740\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6742,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6740\/revisions\/6742"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6740"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6740"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6740"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}