{"id":6488,"date":"2014-01-09T12:56:10","date_gmt":"2014-01-09T20:56:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=6488"},"modified":"2014-01-09T12:56:10","modified_gmt":"2014-01-09T20:56:10","slug":"the-idiot-in-real-life-problem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2014\/01\/the-idiot-in-real-life-problem\/","title":{"rendered":"THE IDIOT IN REAL LIFE PROBLEM"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote>\n<p>THE IDIOT IN REAL LIFE PROBLEM. 15 years ago I noticed that people who studied economics were very stupid in casual inference violating probability theory but would not do so in the classroom. Then I noticed that two economists just made absurd statements about one of my &#8220;prediction&#8221;, particularly one Noah Smith who normally should know better. How could that be? Simple: different domains.<\/p>\n<p>There have been papers (mine with Goldstein plus Hoggarth and Sayer) documenting this: you simply can&#8217;t trust a nonpractioner of probability to discuss probability in the real world.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/photo.php?fbid=10151959816028375&amp;set=a.10150109720973375.279515.13012333374&amp;type=1\">Timeline Photos &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>THE IDIOT IN REAL LIFE PROBLEM. 15 years ago I noticed that people who studied economics were very stupid in casual inference violating probability theory but would not do so in the classroom. Then I noticed that two economists just made absurd statements about one of my &#8220;prediction&#8221;, particularly one Noah Smith who normally should [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[145],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6488"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6488\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6490,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6488\/revisions\/6490"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}