{"id":6029,"date":"2013-08-25T10:43:21","date_gmt":"2013-08-25T17:43:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=6029"},"modified":"2013-08-25T10:43:21","modified_gmt":"2013-08-25T17:43:21","slug":"friends-let-us-look-for-heuristics-to-not-be-turkeys","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2013\/08\/friends-let-us-look-for-heuristics-to-not-be-turkeys\/","title":{"rendered":"Friends, let us look for heuristics to not be turkeys&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote>\n<p>Friends, let us look for heuristics to not be turkeys.In the eyes of the nonspecialist, the marketer good at BS could more easily pass for a specialist than the real specialist Plato. This extends beyond the confidence game: In a highly random environment, the link cause-effect is blurred and in large corporations the fake who knows how to claim credit for successes tends to become the chairperson.So what is the heuristic in a situation facing such a choice? Assuming you are facing two persons and need to make a decision on whose services to use, what is your convex heuristic?<br \/>&#8220;Never hire a well-dressed option trader&#8221; was a heuristic I suggested in Dynamic Hedging 1996. Avoid the economist at all costs is a potent heuristic. Another: &#8220;If someone can explain very clearly a procedure, with a credible intellectual discourse, he is not likely to be a true expert&#8221;. Or: &#8220;verify if he eats his own dog food skin-in-the-game.Eager to hear suggestions.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/permalink.php?story_fbid=10151667440838375&amp;id=13012333374\">Friends, let us look for heuristics to&#8230; &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Friends, let us look for heuristics to not be turkeys.In the eyes of the nonspecialist, the marketer good at BS could more easily pass for a specialist than the real specialist Plato. This extends beyond the confidence game: In a highly random environment, the link cause-effect is blurred and in large corporations the fake who [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[145],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6029","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6029","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6029"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6029\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6030,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6029\/revisions\/6030"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6029"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6029"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6029"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}