{"id":5974,"date":"2013-08-11T10:16:32","date_gmt":"2013-08-11T17:16:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=5974"},"modified":"2013-08-11T10:16:32","modified_gmt":"2013-08-11T17:16:32","slug":"inequalities-this-point-is-technical-but-central-central","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2013\/08\/inequalities-this-point-is-technical-but-central-central\/","title":{"rendered":"INEQUALITIES. This point is technical but central, central."},"content":{"rendered":"
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INEQUALITIES. This point is technical but central, central. The problem with fragilitas is that they focus on equalities (x=.0153745), which gets them into trouble, and diverts them in a vapid and blinding search for certainties, with monstrous model errors. It is more robust to focus on inequalities, such as: probabilities of all these possible outcomes are <= 1 (there is an outcome we may have missed in our imagination, called “Black Swan”), or <1; the probability of such an event >=0, the odds of another Fukushima >= computation by this specific model, etc. First it is harder to make a mistake with inequalities, and in some cases, logically impossible. Now it looks like users of convex heuristics work with inequalities. Jensen’s inequality is an inequality.<\/p>\n

Consider the statement: my flight is >= 4 hours. It would be impossible to make a mistake there, compared to someone saying <=6 hours. One side is immune to error, not the other since flight can be delayed by error, but not accelerated by more than a small margin.<\/p>\n

We can use mathematics to produce inequalities that we can rely on in the real world.<\/p>\n

Fragility and Antifragility being asymmetric exposure to randomness, an inequality comes out of the description: concave and convex outcomes can be expressed by inequalities.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

via INEQUALITIES. This point is technical… – Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

INEQUALITIES. This point is technical but central, central. The problem with fragilitas is that they focus on equalities (x=.0153745), which gets them into trouble, and diverts them in a vapid and blinding search for certainties, with monstrous model errors. It is more robust to focus on inequalities, such as: probabilities of all these possible outcomes […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[145],"tags":[735],"class_list":["post-5974","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook","tag-inequalities"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5974","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5974"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5974\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5976,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5974\/revisions\/5976"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5974"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5974"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5974"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}