{"id":5868,"date":"2013-07-11T13:21:11","date_gmt":"2013-07-11T20:21:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=5868"},"modified":"2013-07-11T13:21:11","modified_gmt":"2013-07-11T20:21:11","slug":"the-probabilistic-argument-for-the-effectiveness-of-nature-in-managing-risk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2013\/07\/the-probabilistic-argument-for-the-effectiveness-of-nature-in-managing-risk\/","title":{"rendered":"The probabilistic argument for the effectiveness of nature in managing risk&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote>\n<p>The probabilistic argument for the effectiveness of nature in managing risk: What is fragile will eventually break and what is not will not&#8230; This is the argument that nature does not produce monstrous tail events that threaten its existence, with n=trillions of trillions &#8230; And why we should act WITHIN nature&#8217;s statistical properties.<br \/>And unless we have ZERO tolerance for stuff such as GMOs we can&#8217;t survive.<br \/>This is the reasoning behind it: kolmorogov&#8217;s zero-one law, Borel-Cantelli lemma, etc.<br \/>(There is a weak survivorship bias, I agree, but it has to be very weak.)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Kolmogorov's_zero\u2013one_law\" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Kolmogorov&#8217;s_zero\u2013one_law<\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>Kolmogorov&#8217;s zero\u2013one law &#8211; Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia<\/em><br \/><em>In probability theory, Kolmogorov&#8217;s zero\u2013one law, named in honor of Andrey Nikolaevich Kolmogorov, specifies that a certain type of event, called a tail event, will either almost surely happen or almost surely not happen; that is, the probability of such an event occurring is zero or one.<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/permalink.php?story_fbid=10151572266448375&amp;id=13012333374\">The probabilistic argument for the&#8230; &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook<\/a>. 7\/5\/2013<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The probabilistic argument for the effectiveness of nature in managing risk: What is fragile will eventually break and what is not will not&#8230; This is the argument that nature does not produce monstrous tail events that threaten its existence, with n=trillions of trillions &#8230; And why we should act WITHIN nature&#8217;s statistical properties.And unless we [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[145],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5868","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5868","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5868"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5868\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5869,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5868\/revisions\/5869"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5868"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5868"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5868"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}