{"id":5830,"date":"2013-06-12T19:46:09","date_gmt":"2013-06-13T02:46:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=5830"},"modified":"2013-06-12T19:46:09","modified_gmt":"2013-06-13T02:46:09","slug":"my-new-program-there-is-a-systematic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2013\/06\/my-new-program-there-is-a-systematic\/","title":{"rendered":"My new program. There is a systematic&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote>\n<p>My new program. There is a systematic way to capture the difference between the mathematical properties of the &#8220;real world&#8221; and those of the &#8220;academic&#8221; one (in the bad sense of the word), or the difference between &#8220;textbooks&#8221; and &#8220;reality&#8221;, and even track the effects of too much certainty in a belief system. It looks like model errors, model uncertainty, and overconfidence lead to underestimation of fat tails, and we know where to correct for it.<\/p>\n<p>For instance we know that the law of large numbers requires MORE observations that what we find in textbooks, etc.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/FatTails.html\" target=\"_blank\">http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/FatTails.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/permalink.php?story_fbid=10151530436533375&amp;id=13012333374\">My new program. There is a systematic&#8230; &#8211; Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Facebook<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>My new program. There is a systematic way to capture the difference between the mathematical properties of the &#8220;real world&#8221; and those of the &#8220;academic&#8221; one (in the bad sense of the word), or the difference between &#8220;textbooks&#8221; and &#8220;reality&#8221;, and even track the effects of too much certainty in a belief system. It looks [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[145],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5830","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5830"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5830\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5831,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5830\/revisions\/5831"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}