{"id":5253,"date":"2012-12-11T14:24:35","date_gmt":"2012-12-11T22:24:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=5253"},"modified":"2012-12-11T14:24:35","modified_gmt":"2012-12-11T22:24:35","slug":"overtreatment-as-short-volatility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2012\/12\/overtreatment-as-short-volatility\/","title":{"rendered":"OVERTREATMENT as short volatility&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote>\n<p>OVERTREATMENT as short volatility: Huge vindication of the argument of Chapters 21 and 22 on the convexity of iatrogenics (only treat the VERY ill): Mortality is convex to blood pressure. Spyros Makridakis found this graph from the Farmingham study.<\/p>\n<p>The implication is obvious: only treat the seriously ill (and overtreat them!). But for every person very ill (say 4 STD away for the norm), there are 5000 slightly ill (1 STD away). There we see why pharma has an incentive to treat mildly ill people.<\/p>\n<p>Note that the iatrogenics are the same for both mildly ill and very ill.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone\" src=\"http:\/\/sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net\/hphotos-ash4\/301283_10151212006763375_2052074828_n.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"523\" height=\"457\" \/><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/photo.php?fbid=10151212006763375&amp;set=a.10150109720973375.279515.13012333374&amp;type=1\">Timeline Photos | Facebook<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>OVERTREATMENT as short volatility: Huge vindication of the argument of Chapters 21 and 22 on the convexity of iatrogenics (only treat the VERY ill): Mortality is convex to blood pressure. Spyros Makridakis found this graph from the Farmingham study. The implication is obvious: only treat the seriously ill (and overtreat them!). But for every person [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[145],"tags":[617,466,261],"class_list":["post-5253","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook","tag-cardiovascular","tag-convexity","tag-iatrogenics"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5253","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5253"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5253\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5255,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5253\/revisions\/5255"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5253"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5253"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5253"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}