{"id":4793,"date":"2012-09-22T15:24:38","date_gmt":"2012-09-22T22:24:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=4793"},"modified":"2012-09-22T15:24:38","modified_gmt":"2012-09-22T22:24:38","slug":"which-economists-can-see-the-future-pbs-newshour","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2012\/09\/which-economists-can-see-the-future-pbs-newshour\/","title":{"rendered":"Which Economists Can See the Future? | PBS NewsHour"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote>\n<p>I&#8217;ve interviewed Nassim Taleb of &#8220;Black Swan&#8221; fame three times on the NewsHour &#8212; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/bb\/business\/july-dec06\/hedgefunds_10-23.html\" target=\"_blank\">here<\/a>, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/bb\/business\/july-dec08\/psolman_10-21.html\" target=\"_blank\">there<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/bb\/business\/jan-june10\/makingsense_06-15.html\" target=\"_blank\">back here<\/a>. Sadly, we never had time for his wonderful monkey example. Here&#8217;s an early version, from his book &#8220;Dynamic Hedging&#8221;:<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;If one puts an infinite number of monkeys in front of (strongly built) typewriters and lets them clap away (without destroying the machinery), there is a certainty that one of them will come out with an exact version of the &#8216;Iliad.&#8217; Once that hero among monkeys is found, would any reader invest his life&#8217;s savings on a bet that the monkey would write the &#8216;Odyssey&#8217; next?&#8221;<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.pbs.org\/newshour\/rundown\/2012\/09\/which-economists-can-see-the-future.html\">Which Economists Can See the Future? | PBS NewsHour<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;ve interviewed Nassim Taleb of &#8220;Black Swan&#8221; fame three times on the NewsHour &#8212; here, there, and back here. Sadly, we never had time for his wonderful monkey example. Here&#8217;s an early version, from his book &#8220;Dynamic Hedging&#8221;: &#8220;If one puts an infinite number of monkeys in front of (strongly built) typewriters and lets them [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[278,273],"class_list":["post-4793","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors","tag-paul-solman","tag-pbs"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4793","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4793"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4793\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4795,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4793\/revisions\/4795"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4793"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4793"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4793"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}