{"id":4779,"date":"2012-09-15T14:34:45","date_gmt":"2012-09-15T21:34:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?p=4779"},"modified":"2012-09-15T14:34:45","modified_gmt":"2012-09-15T21:34:45","slug":"just-as-when-you-mix-pure-and-impure-material","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2012\/09\/just-as-when-you-mix-pure-and-impure-material\/","title":{"rendered":"Just as when you mix pure and impure material&#8230;"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote>\n<p>Just as when you mix pure and impure material, the result is impure, uncertainty can contaminate certainty but never the other way around. When you multiply an uncertain variable by a certain number, the result is uncertain and not certain. If the multiplier is &gt;1, the result is even more uncertain this is leverage, which compounds uncertainty.So if you are told that a result is deterministic, say by theorem, but the person saying has a small probability of having made a mistake, the result will no longer be deterministic, but random.<\/p>\n<p>(Cont, More technical) Unlike with water where bad elements get eventually diluted away, and where you can reach acceptable purity, if you add to N &#8220;well behaved&#8221; random variables (Mediocristan) a single &#8220;Extremely wild&#8221; one (super-Extremistan), the total sum will be &#8220;Extremely wild&#8221;, no matter how large the N or how well behaved the other random variables.<br \/>(The wild can be a single Cauchy-distributed random variable or anything with a tail exponent &lt;=1).<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>via <a href=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/permalink.php?story_fbid=10151093081583375&amp;id=13012333374\">Just as when you&#8230; | Facebook<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Just as when you mix pure and impure material, the result is impure, uncertainty can contaminate certainty but never the other way around. When you multiply an uncertain variable by a certain number, the result is uncertain and not certain. If the multiplier is &gt;1, the result is even more uncertain this is leverage, which [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,145],"tags":[240],"class_list":["post-4779","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-contributors","category-facebook","tag-uncertainty"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4779","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4779"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4779\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4781,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4779\/revisions\/4781"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4779"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4779"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4779"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}