{"id":3810,"date":"2011-10-12T19:25:10","date_gmt":"2011-10-13T02:25:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/?guid=2c8cac9ac6f456c00afe057b9c731350"},"modified":"2012-04-13T02:10:41","modified_gmt":"2012-04-13T09:10:41","slug":"the-problem-is-beyond-psychology-the-real-world-is-more-random-than-regression-analyses-by-nassim-taleb-daniel-goldstein-ssrn","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2011\/10\/the-problem-is-beyond-psychology-the-real-world-is-more-random-than-regression-analyses-by-nassim-taleb-daniel-goldstein-ssrn\/","title":{"rendered":"The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses by Nassim Taleb, Daniel Goldstein :: SSRN"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<h1 style=\"font-size: 18px;\">The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses<\/h1>\n<\/div>\n<p><center><span style=\"font-size: x-small;\"><span style=\"font-size: x-small;\"><a style=\"font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold;\" title=\"View other papers by this author\" href=\"http:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/cf_dev\/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=475810\"><br \/><\/a><\/span><\/span><\/center><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; display: inline;\">Nassim Nicholas Taleb<\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">NYU-Poly<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"font-size: 14px; font-weight: bold; margin: 0px; display: inline;\">Daniel G. Goldstein<\/h2>\n<p>London Business School<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><em>International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming<\/em><\/span><br \/> <strong><br \/><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"> Abstract: <\/span><br \/> <\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <span style=\"font-size: x-small;\"><br \/> <span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Where the problem is not expert underestimation of randomness, but more: the tools themselves used in regression analyses and similar methods underestimate fat tails, hence the randomness in the data. We should avoid imparting psychological explanations to errors in the use of statistical methods. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p>[Updated: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.fooledbyrandomness.com\/Taleb-Goldstein-IJF2012.pdf\">The Problem is Beyond Psychology 2012<\/a>]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Problem is Beyond Psychology: The Real World is More Random than Regression Analyses<\/p>\n<p>Nassim  Nicholas Taleb NYU-PolyDaniel G. Goldstein London Business School<\/p>\n<p>International Journal of Forecasting, Forthcoming <\/p>\n<p>Abstract:<br \/>\n\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Where t&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,445,73],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3810","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-feeds","category-papers","category-pdf"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3810","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3810"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3810\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3815,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3810\/revisions\/3815"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3810"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3810"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3810"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}