{"id":3049,"date":"2011-03-21T23:08:54","date_gmt":"2011-03-22T06:08:54","guid":{"rendered":"tag:google.com,2005:reader\/item\/70964aa8df0c5c68"},"modified":"2011-03-21T23:08:54","modified_gmt":"2011-03-22T06:08:54","slug":"all-that-glitters-the-black-swan-song-of-nassim-taleb-haaretz-daily-newspaper-israel-news","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2011\/03\/all-that-glitters-the-black-swan-song-of-nassim-taleb-haaretz-daily-newspaper-israel-news\/","title":{"rendered":"All that glitters \/ The &#039;black swan&#039; song of Nassim Taleb &#8211; Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News"},"content":{"rendered":"<table border=\"0\" cellspacing=\"0\" width=\"474\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td rowspan=\"2\">\n<p>    \t           <img decoding=\"async\" title=\"Nassim Taleb - Bloomberg\" src=\"http:\/\/english.themarker.com\/polopoly_fs\/1.350795.1300675069!\/image\/1259200320.jpg_gen\/derivatives\/landscape_295\/1259200320.jpg\" alt=\"Nassim Taleb - Bloomberg\">    \t\t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<td valign=\"top\">\n<p>Nassim Taleb<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td valign=\"bottom\">\n    \t\t    \t\t\tPhoto by: Bloomberg\n    \t\t\t\t<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>Taleb&#8217;s mathematics are complicated, but his conclusions are not:\n\t\t\t\t\t\t    <\/p>\n<p>1. Small probabilities are incomputable, and the smaller they are, the harder they are to calculate.\n\t\t\t\t\t\t    <\/p>\n<p>2. Present models lead small probabilities to be underestimated.\n\t\t\t\t\t\t    <\/p>\n<p>3. These models cause the likelihood of horrible events with small probability to be even more underestimated.\n\t\t\t\t\t\t    <\/p>\n<p>4. Because of globalization and the fact that all markets and countries are interlinked, the economic cost of natural catastrophe rises in a nonlinear fashion.\n\t\t\t\t\t\t    <\/p>\n<p>5. If a person calculates the probability of a rare event and his life depends on that rare event not happening &#8211; for instance, a nuclear meltdown &#8211; he&#8217;s already underestimating the probability of that event.\n\t\t\t\t\t\t    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\t\t\t\t\tNassim Taleb<\/p>\n<p>    \t\t    \t\t\tPhoto by: Bloomberg<\/p>\n<p>         \t\t\t\t\t\t        \t\t\t\t\t        \t\t\t\t\t        \t\t\t\t\t        \t\t\t\t\t\t        \t\t\t\t\t        \t\t\t\t\t        \t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t        \t\t\t&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3049","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-feeds"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3049","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3049"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3049\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3049"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3049"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3049"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}