{"id":2486,"date":"2010-11-27T14:48:12","date_gmt":"2010-11-27T22:48:12","guid":{"rendered":"tag:google.com,2005:reader\/item\/7a73ea6c084ae5b8"},"modified":"2010-11-27T14:48:12","modified_gmt":"2010-11-27T22:48:12","slug":"the-world-in-2036-nassim-taleb-looks-at-what-will-break-and-what-wont-the-economist","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2010\/11\/the-world-in-2036-nassim-taleb-looks-at-what-will-break-and-what-wont-the-economist\/","title":{"rendered":"The World in 2036: Nassim Taleb looks at what will break, and what won&#039;t | The Economist"},"content":{"rendered":"<blockquote><p>Shared by  JohnH<br \/>\n<br \/>\nStrange to see NNT making ANY kind of prediction, in principal. I am reminded of Marshall McLuhan- he thought of his ideas as &#8216;probes&#8217;, not meant to be taken literally, but to serve as areas of intellectual energy he felt should be better examined. My sense is that that is what NNT is doing here.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<div><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/images-magazine\/2011\/01\/31\/TT\/20110131_TTD001.jpg\" alt=\"\"><\/div>\n<p> Paradoxically, one can make long-term predictions on the basis of the prevalence of forecasting errors. A system that is over-reliant on prediction (through leverage, like the banking system before the recent crisis), hence fragile to unforeseen \u201cblack swan\u201d events, will eventually break into pieces. Although fragile bridges can take a long time to collapse, 25 years in the 21st century should be sufficient to make hidden risks salient: connectivity and operational leverage are making cultural and economic events cascade faster and deeper. Anything fragile today will be broken by then.<\/p>\n<p>The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive, weakened by deficits, politicians\u2019 misalignment of interests and the magnification of errors by centralised systems. The pre-modernist robust model of city-states and statelings will prevail, with obsessive fiscal prudence. Currencies might still exist, but, after the disastrous experience of America\u2019s Federal Reserve, they will peg to some currency without a government, such as gold.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Shared by  JohnH <\/p>\n<p>Strange to see NNT making ANY kind of prediction, in principal. I am reminded of Marshall McLuhan- he thought of his ideas as &#8216;probes&#8217;, not meant to be taken literally, but to serve as areas of intellectual energy he felt should be b&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-feeds"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2486"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2486\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}