{"id":2478,"date":"2010-11-23T05:55:26","date_gmt":"2010-11-23T13:55:26","guid":{"rendered":"tag:google.com,2005:reader\/item\/eb54797f6bcbe5e7"},"modified":"2010-12-21T17:27:12","modified_gmt":"2010-12-22T01:27:12","slug":"amateur-prophets-add-to-the-future-pros-remove-from-it-httpwww-economist-comnode17509373story_id17509373cfid149238396cftoken89583226","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2010\/11\/amateur-prophets-add-to-the-future-pros-remove-from-it-httpwww-economist-comnode17509373story_id17509373cfid149238396cftoken89583226\/","title":{"rendered":"Amateur prophets add to the future, pros remove from it.http:\/\/www.economist.com\/node\/17509373?story_id=17509373&amp;CFID=149238396&amp;CFTOKEN=89583226"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Amateur prophets add to the future, pros remove from it.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/node\/17509373?story_id=17509373&amp;CFID=149238396&amp;CFTOKEN=89583226\" rel=\"nofollow\">http:\/\/www.economist.com\/node\/17509373?story_id=17509373&amp;CFID=149238396&amp;CFTOKEN=89583226<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/node\/17509373?story_id=17509373&amp;CFID=149238396&amp;CFTOKEN=89583226\" title=\"\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/external.ak.fbcdn.net\/safe_image.php?d=11157a6790a010dd16aec19b455d7c44&amp;w=90&amp;h=90&amp;url=http:\/\/www.economist.com\/\/sites\/default\/files\/images\/images-magazine\/2011\/01\/31\/TT\/20110131_TTD001.jpg\"><\/a><br \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.economist.com\/node\/17509373?story_id=17509373&amp;CFID=149238396&amp;CFTOKEN=89583226\" rel=\"nofollow\">Nassim Taleb looks at what will break, and what won&#8217;t<\/a><br \/>www.economist.com<br \/>Paradoxically, one can make long-term predictions on the basis of the prevalence of forecasting errors.  A system that is over-reliant on prediction (through leverage, like the banking system before the recent crisis), hence fragile to unforeseen \u201cblack swan\u201d events, will eventually break into piece<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Amateur prophets add to the future, pros remove from it.http:\/\/www.economist.com\/node\/17509373?story_id=17509373&amp;CFID=149238396&amp;CFTOKEN=89583226Nassim Taleb looks at what will break, and what won&#8217;twww.economist.comParadoxically, one can make lo&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":21,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[145,5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2478","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-facebook","category-feeds"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2478","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/21"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2478"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2478\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2483,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2478\/revisions\/2483"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2478"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2478"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2478"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}