{"id":2473,"date":"2010-11-19T23:21:55","date_gmt":"2010-11-20T07:21:55","guid":{"rendered":"tag:google.com,2005:reader\/item\/7b00c40e2fb5fb71"},"modified":"2010-11-19T23:21:55","modified_gmt":"2010-11-20T07:21:55","slug":"time-to-short-treasuries-yet-seeking-alpha","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/2010\/11\/time-to-short-treasuries-yet-seeking-alpha\/","title":{"rendered":"Time to Short Treasuries Yet? &#8212; Seeking Alpha"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Every Ponzi Fails in Time<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In February Nassim Taleb remarked that, &#8220;every single human being&#8221; should short US Treasuries. Mr. Black Swan may have been a little early, but he&#8217;s right, of course. Treasuries are a bubble of epic proportions. And when that bubble pops, a lot of money will be made on the short  side. For retail investors, that means using ETFs like TBT, which shorts  long-dated treasuries (with leverage).<\/p>\n<p>But getting the timing right on this trade has proven tricky. Bond  prices just keep going up, pushing yields to absurdly low levels. Investors who bought <span>ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/symbol\/tbt\" title=\"ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF\">TBT<\/a>)<\/span> back in February, when Mr. Taleb made his &#8220;every single human&#8221; remarks, are down about 20% on their investment. Yield on 10-year treasuries has fallen to 2.8%. In April, the same  bond was yielding 4%. In 2000, before the tech bubble burst, the 10-year  was paying a healthy 6.7%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every Ponzi Fails in TimeIn February Nassim Taleb remarked that, &#8220;every single human being&#8221; should short US Treasuries. Mr. Black Swan may have been a little early, but he&#8217;s right, of course. Treasuries are a bubble of epic proportions. And when that b&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":14,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2473","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-feeds"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2473","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/14"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2473"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2473\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2473"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2473"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.blackswanreport.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2473"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}